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Medicaid cuts put 10 Virginia hospitals at risk, report says

SUMMARY:

  • Public Citizen report identifies 10 Virginia hospitals at risk of closing or reducing services
  • Some health systems said they disagreed with finding that their hospitals were at risk of closing
  • Democratic Sens. Warner, Kaine highlighted report Friday
  • H.R. 1 is projected to cut federal Medicaid spending by $911B over a decade

A March report by Public Citizen, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit consumer advocacy organization, identifies 10 hospitals in Virginia at heightened risk of closing or reducing services due to H.R. 1, the budget reconciliation package that President Donald Trump signed into law July 4, 2025.

Sometimes referred to as the “One Big Beautiful Act,” the package is projected to cut federal Medicaid spending by $911 billion over a decade.

Accounting for 12.8% of hospitals in Virginia, the facilities deemed high risk are:

  • Bon Secours Southern Virginia Regional Medical Center in Emporia
  • Buchanan General Hospital in Grundy
  • Carilion Tazewell Community Hospital in Tazewell
  • Dickenson Community Hospital in Clintwood
  • Halifax Regional Hospital in South Boston
  • Sentara Northern Virginia Medical Center in Woodbridge
  • Southside Community Hospital in Farmville
  • Twin County Regional Healthcare in Galax
  • Community Memorial Hospital in South Hill
  • VCU Health Tappahannock Hospital in Tappahannock

Sens. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, both Democrats, highlighted the report in a Friday news release.

“From Southwest to Northern Virginia, hospitals across the commonwealth are now at risk of closure because of Republicans’ tax giveaway bill for the ultrawealthy,” the senators said in a statement. “While the rich got trillions in tax breaks, hardworking Virginians are left paying the price. This latest report shows just how cruel and reckless this law is. Virginians, and Americans across the country, deserve reliable access to affordable, quality care.”

Among the many significant changes in H.R. 1, the law restricts the ability of states to finance the state portion of Medicaid. It gradually reduces provider taxes, a tax states can impose on providers, from 6% to 3.5%, starting in October 2027. It also places caps on state-directed payments, sometimes called a Medicaid Directed Payment Program, or DPP, which are payments made to providers by Medicaid managed care plans.

In Virginia, state-directed payments currently account for 16% of net revenue for hospitals generally and up to 33% for institutions with higher Medicaid caseloads.

Virginia has used a provider tax to pay the state’s share of Medicaid expansion since 2018. The tax, which is not to exceed 6% of net patient revenue, is carried by 63 acute care hospitals in the commonwealth.

These hospitals paid $650 million to Virginia in fiscal 2024, according to the Glen Allen-based Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association, or VHHA, which represents 27 health systems and hospitals.

“When you look at those two policy changes, that’s going to cause hospitals in Virginia in excess of $2 billion a year in lost funding,” said Julian Walker, VHHA’s vice president of communications.

However, Walker also stressed that hospitals are incredibly resilient. He pointed to the concern during the pandemic that hospitals would be forced to shutter en masse due to the expense of caring for a surge in patients and the lost income stemming from having to postpone elective procedures.

“They showed great resilience during COVID,” he said.

Even so, many hospitals have been working for years to restore finances following the pandemic.

“Now they have to, while still dealing with those recovery plans, … begin to plan and project a model for the impacts of this new shift in federal policy,” Walker said. “So these are obviously challenging conditions. I can’t say it’s going to lead to closures. I can’t say it’s going to lead to [a] reduction in force or jobs.”

If the changes take effect, hospitals will likely have to do some belt tightening, Walker allowed.

“They’re going to have to make plans to adapt and to adjust,” he said.

Health systems respond

Mike Kafka, a spokesperson for Hampton Roads-based health system Sentara Health, disagreed with the report’s statement that two Sentara facilities are at risk. “There are no plans to close or Sentara Northern Virginia Medical Center,” he said in a written statement Friday.

Kafka pointed out that in January, Sentara held a topping off ceremony for Sentara Halifax Regional’s new $107 million hospital, which is set to open mid-2027.

“Ensuring access to quality care for the communities we serve remains our highest priority,” Kafka said. “We will continue to serve the communities who rely on us, advocate for those without a voice and work alongside state and federal leaders, nonprofit partners and fellow health systems to navigate the road ahead.”

In the report, Public Citizen wrote, “Obstetric care, care focused on pregnancy, childbirth, and postpartum care — already severely under strain — has taken significant hits in recent months.” It provides Lynchburg-based Centra Health, a health system that serves more than 500,000 people in Central and Southern Virginia, as an example, because Centra discontinued obstetrician and gynecologist services at Centra Southside Community Hospital in Farmville and at Centra Medical Group’s Southside Women’s Center in late 2025.

A December announcement about the change by the health system said that Centra, “like other providers, must adapt to significant financial and operational challenges, including recently enacted reductions in federal health care funding.”

On Friday, a Centra spokesperson said that the health system has no plans to close Southside Community Hospital and pointed out that on Nov. 3, 2025, the Farmville hospital broke ground on a $5 million renovation and expansion of its emergency department

“Southside Community Hospital is a vital resource for the community,” Centra said in a statement.

Centra also said it is “navigating an increasingly complex environment.”

“Recent federal policy changes, including H.R. 1, introduce significant shifts in Medicaid funding, eligibility and enrollment that could impact provider sustainability and patient access to care if fully implemented,” Centra said in the statement. “Hospitals play a critical role in both community health and economic stability and changes of this magnitude will require thoughtful adjustments over time.”

Danielle Pierce, a spokesperson for VCU Health, said that in response to H.R. 1, the health system plans to  “closely monitor federal changes, identify emerging challenges and stay in active communication with government stakeholders.”

“Serving a patient population largely covered by government payer programs is central to our mission, though it does add financial complexity because those programs typically reimburse below the rising cost of care,” she said.

Roanoke-based said in a statement that the health system continues “to closely monitor H.R. 1 and are unable to speak to potential impacts as we await final details.”

“Like all nonprofit hospitals, we are accustomed to tight operating margins in caring for patients in our communities,” the health system said. “We’re careful stewards of our resources, and we’ll continue to work hard to be efficient and thoughtful about carrying out our mission to invest in the community’s long-term health.”

Dickenson Community Hospital is operated by Tennessee-based , which serves Tennessee, North Carolina and Kentucky as well as Virginia. A spokesperson for the health system noted that Dickenson Community Hospital is a critical access hospital, a designation the federal government gives to eligible . These facilities receive certain benefits designed to reduce their financial vulnerability.

“It is because of this classification that Dickenson County Hospital and others can maintain stable operations,” Ballad Health said in the statement. “We are continuing to assess the potential impact of H.R. 1 to ensure our facilities can adapt to the new funding environment.”

Other at-risk hospitals

In June 2025, four Democratic U.S. senators warned in a letter to the president and Republican congressional leaders that 338 rural hospitals, including six in Virginia, could be at risk of closing if what was then the One Big Beautiful Bill passed, citing research from the University of North Carolina’s Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research.

The six named Virginia facilities included some not on the Public Citizen list: Bon Secours Southampton Medical Center in Franklin; Bon Secours Rappahannock General Hospital in Kilmarnock; and Lee County Community Hospital in Pennington Gap. Three made both lists: Bon Secours Southern Virginia Regional Medical Center; VCU Health Community Memorial Hospital and Carilion Tazewell Community Hospital.

Oil edges up in choppy trade; US, Iran receive ceasefire proposal framework

Summary:

LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) – inched up in choppy trade on Monday, as investors awaited clarity on the status of talks between the and Iran and remained wary about sustained supply losses due to shipping disruptions.

Brent crude futures were up 0.1% to $109.13 a barrel at 1326 GMT. U.S. crude futures were trading up 0.69%, or 77 cents, at $112.31 per barrel.

The pricing moves in Asia trading on Monday were dwarfed by an 11% surge for WTI and an 8% rise for Brent during the previous trading session on Thursday, the biggest absolute price increase since 2020.

The U.S. and Iran received the framework of a plan to end hostilities, but Iran rejected immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz, after President threatened to rain “hell” on Tehran if it did not make a deal by the end of Tuesday.

Iran also said it had formulated its positions and demands in response to recent ceasefire proposals conveyed via intermediaries.

The Strait of Hormuz, which carries oil and petroleum products from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, remains largely closed due to Iranian attacks on shipping after the war began on February 28.

Some vessels, however, including an Omani-operated tanker, a French-owned container ship and a Japanese-owned gas carrier, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since Thursday, shipping data showed, reflecting Iran’s policy to allow passage for vessels from countries it deems more friendly.

“The market is trying to realise what to expect going forward. The most important headline this weekend has been that some ships passed through the Strait,” said SEB Research analyst Ole Hvalbye.

Hvalbye also highlighted that Europe continued to lose physical barrels and products to Asia due to the market tightening.

SEEKING ALTERNATIVE SOURCES

The disruptions have led to refiners seeking alternative sources for crude, particularly for physical cargoes in the U.S. and Britain’s North Sea. Spot premiums for U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude have jumped to all-time highs on competition between Asian and European refiners.

Indian refiners have also postponed maintenance shutdowns of their units to meet local fuel demand.

On Sunday, , consisting of some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, agreed to a modest rise of 206,000 barrels per day for May.

“OPEC movements look to be challenged based on export availability,” said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.

Saudi Arabia also set the official selling price of May Arab Light crude oil to Asia at a record premium of $19.50 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, an increase of $17 from the previous month, said.

Meanwhile, Russian supply has been disrupted recently by Ukrainian drone attacks on its Baltic Sea export terminals. Media reports on Sunday said its Ust-Luga terminal resumed loadings on Saturday after days of disruptions.

Exports from the Black Sea port of Tuapse are set to rise to 794,000 metric tons in April, up 8.7% on a daily basis from 755,000 metric tons planned for March, according to two traders and Reuters calculations.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen in London, Katya Golubkova in Tokyo and Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore; Editing by Keith Weir, Ros Russell and Janane Venkatraman)

 

JPMorgan’s Dimon warns Iran war may drive inflation and interest rates higher

Summary:
  • Jamie Dimon warns war risks oil and commodity shocks
  • Dimon says private credit sector likely not systemic risk
  • Dimon criticizes flawed US bank capital rule proposals

NEW YORK, April 6 (Reuters) – Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned on Monday that the war in Iran risks oil and commodity price shocks that could keep sticky and push higher than the market now expects.

The warning came in an annual letter to shareholders a day after President ratcheted up pressure on Iran, threatening to target its power plants and bridges on Tuesday if it does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway.

Dimon, 70, who has run JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank for two decades, also said the private credit sector “probably” does not present a systemic risk, despite investors’ recent moves to pull back from such funds amid worries that advances in AI will hurt underlying borrowers.

“The challenges we all face are significant,” Dimon added, citing geopolitical risks such as the war in Ukraine, broader hostilities in the Middle East and tension with China.

“Now, because of the war in Iran, we additionally face the potential for significant ongoing oil and commodity price shocks, along with the reshaping of global supply chains, which may lead to stickier inflation and ultimately higher interest rates than markets currently expect.”

Time will tell whether the Iran war achieves the United States’ objectives, Dimon said, adding that nuclear proliferation remains the greatest danger from Iran.

War-driven inflation worries have led markets to largely rule out interest rate cuts this year, after monetary easing fuelled record equity highs last year.

Last week, the benchmark S&P 500 index closed its worst-performing quarter since 2022, weighed down since late February by the war and the resulting spurt in energy prices.

Dimon said the U.S. continued to be resilient, withconsumers still earning and spending, though with some recent weakening, and businesses are still healthy.

But he cautioned the economy had been fuelled by large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus, while increased expenditure on infrastructure remained a growing need.

The fiscal stimulus from President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill,” deregulation policies and artificial intelligence-driven capital spending are other positives for the economy, Dimon said.

PRIVATE CREDIT MAY NOT BE A SYSTEMIC RISK

Dimon said the $1.8-trillion private credit market is relatively small. But once the credit cycle weakens, he warned, losses on all leveraged lending will be higher than expected as credit standards have been weakening modestly across the board.

Private credit also does not tend to have great transparency or rigorous valuation loan “marks,” increasing the chance that investors will sell if they think the environment will worsen, he said.

Blue Owl last week told investors it was limiting withdrawals from two funds after a historic level of first-quarter redemption requests, with AI-related worries driving an investor exodus from its technology-focused fund.

Dimon also used the letter to sharply criticize revised capital rules proposed by U.S. bank regulators last month, decrying some aspects as still “nonsensical”.

JPMorgan was among the banks that fought hard to water down 2023 drafts of the so-called and , or Global Systemically Important Banks’ surcharge rules.

But on Monday, Dimon said the proposals were still “very flawed”, adding that JPMorgan’s , an extra capital layer held by such banks, would only fall to 5.0%, a figure he said punished its success and was “absurd” and “un-American.”

 

(Reporting by Saeed Azhar; Editing by Michelle Price and Clarence Fernandez)

 

BlackRock files for Nasdaq-100 fund, expanding competition with Invesco

April 6 (Reuters) – has filed for an that will track the , in a challenge to ‘s dominance in a market where only a handful of funds directly follow the tech-heavy index.

The world’s largest is seeking approval for , which will trade under the ticker “IQQ”, it said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.

Fees for the fund were not specified.

The fund would compete with Invesco’s ETF, one of the largest ETFs in the world, with around $376 billion in assets under management, according to data compiled by LSEG.

“Expanding access to the -100 is intended to be additive, supporting investors by improving the efficiency, liquidity, and availability of benchmark-linked exposure across markets and product types,” Nasdaq said in a public statement.

Only a handful of publicly available ETFs exclusively track the Nasdaq-100, according to data from VettaFi’s ETF database.

Invesco’s product is one of the most widely traded funds in the and a popular way for investors to gain exposure to large-cap growth and .

The Nasdaq-100 comprises 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, including tech giants such as Nvidia and Apple.

Invesco shares declined close to 4% to $23.19 in early trading. BlackRock shares edged 0.6% lower.

(Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)

 

US equity funds see a second successive weekly inflow

April 6 (Reuters) – witnessed substantial inflows in the seven days to April 1 as worries over the eased temporarily after President indicated that the United States was nearing the completion of its objectives for the war.

Investors bought equity funds of a net $7.05 billion after about $36.95 billion worth of net purchases in the prior week, data from showed.

Investors were, however, risk averse on Monday as Trump ramped up his threats to destroy civilian infrastructure over the weekend, including power plants and bridges in , if the strategic is not reopened by Tuesday.

U.S. attracted $14.67 billion in the week to April 1, in a second successive week of net purchases. Investors, however, ditched small-cap, mid-cap and sectoral funds of a net $1.34 billion, $1.09 billion and $3.82 billion, respectively.

faced the first weekly net sales since December 31, 2025, to the tune of $10.17 billion.

Short-to-intermediate investment-grade funds saw their first weekly net disposal in 18 weeks, worth $5.92 billion. Investors also divested general domestic taxable fixed income funds of a net $1.25 billion.

, meanwhile, attracted $5.88 billion, the sixth weekly inflow in seven weeks.

 

(Reporting by Gaurav DograEditing by Ros Russell)

 

Martinsville bank sells Justice family’s overdue loans to Omni Hotels entity

SUMMARY: 

Omni Hotels & Resorts’ parent company has purchased $209.48 million in past-due loans from ‘s Carter Bankshares for $289.48 million, according to a recent federal securities filing. U.S. Sen. Jim Justice II, a West Virginia Republican whose family owns the Greenbrier resort, and his family took out the overdue loans through a holding company.

On March 26, Carter Bankshares, the holding company of Carter Bank & Trust, reported the completion of the sale to “an unaffiliated third party,” in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

A March 25 filing in Greenbrier County, West Virginia, shows a transfer of debt from Carter Bank to an entity called White Sulphur Springs Holdings that is registered to the same Dallas address as ‘ corporate headquarters, Omni’s parent company. A copy of the filing was published Wednesday on WV MetroNews.

The entity filed for organization March 12, 2026, according to the Texas Secretary of State.

“A subsidiary of TRT Holdings, Omni Hotels & Resorts’ parent company, acquired the first-lien debt on The Greenbrier Resort in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia, as an investment,” Tiffani Cailor, an Omni spokesperson, said in a statement Friday. “This transaction was made as part of TRT Holdings’ broader business of investing across a diverse portfolio of assets.”

Omni Hotels & Resorts is a private luxury hotel brand that owns three Virginia properties, including The Omni Homestead Resort & Spa, a competitor of the Greenbrier. The purchase of the ‘s business debts does not give TRT Holdings ownership of the Greenbrier, but it does give the hotelier significant influence over the West Virginia resort.

When asked whether TRT Holdings has plans for the Greenbrier, Cailor stated, “There are no plans with respect to Omni Hotels & Resorts at this time.”

Brooks Taylor, vice president and corporate communications officer for Carter Bank, wrote in an email Friday that the only information currently being released is from the SEC filing. However, he noted that more information will be available after the bank files its second-quarter earnings report April 23.

The Greenbrier did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Carter Bank and the Justice family have been embroiled in legal action for several years. Elected West Virginia’s junior senator in 2024, Jim Justice was previously the state’s governor from 2017 to 2025. He led 102 companies through the Justice Family Group before seeking political office, including the Greenbrier resort, which the family purchased in 2009 for $20.1 million. According to American Banker, at its height, Carter Bank lent the business $740 million.

However, since 2023, the Justice loan portfolio has not been earning the bank interest, and Carter Bank placed the loans in nonaccrual status as payments were not being paid. Along with the Greenbrier, the Justice family owns coal mining and agricultural operations.

In July 2024, Carter Bankshares announced that the Justices had agreed to a payoff plan for the outstanding loans, which were at a $294.1 million balance as of June 30, 2024.

In its March SEC filing, Carter Bankshares reported that the sale of the loans will affect its tangible book value per common share by about $3.49 per share.

Carter Bank had $4.9 billion in assets at the end of 2025 and operates 63 branches in Virginia and North Carolina.

Virginia sees homes sales growth in February

 

SUMMARY:
  • In February, 6,581 homes sold in Virginia, up 7.4% from February 2025.
  • mortgage rates dropped below 6% at end of February, but have risen since outbreak of
  • Median sales price rose to $410,000 statewide, up 1.6% year-over-year
  • Inventory grew to 19,601 active listings as seller activity increased and homes stayed on the market longer.

Virginia home sales climbed in February as improved inventory and lower mortgage rates boosted buyer activity, according to a mid-March report from , before global economic uncertainty began to disrupt financial markets.

According to the report, there were 6,581 homes sold statewide in February, a 7.4% increase from last year’s 6,129 sales and up nearly 12% over January’s 5,881 sales. Virginia Realtors reported that 59% of the state’s local markets recorded higher sales than the same time last year.

There were 7,115 pending sales in February, up 5% from last year and up 5.8% from January. The association attributed the rise in pending sales to lower mortgage rates from earlier in the year.

In a statement, Virginia Realtors Chief Economist Ryan Price said February’s data showed that the state’s entered 2026 with “solid momentum.”

“Higher inventory, steady buyer interest and softer price growth were setting the stage for a busier spring season,” Price said. “However, the recent geopolitical tensions stemming from the war have already pushed mortgage rates upward and created volatility in the bond market. How high mortgage rates climb will play a major role in determining whether the spring market maintains its pace or slows.”

At the end of February, U.S. mortgage rates fell below 6% for the first time since 2022. But, the rate has climbed since the outbreak of the Iran war. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.46% as of Thursday.

The statewide median sales price in February was $410,000, a 3.1% increase from January and a modest 1.6% increase from February 2025. Nearly 6 out of 10 local markets (57%) posted year‑over‑year price increases.

Inventory conditions also continued to improve across Virginia, with 10,384 new listings in February, up 3.1% from January and 6.3% from February 2025. In February, there were 19,601 active listings, up 2.1% from January and up more than 9% from a year ago.

Virginia Realtors attributes the rise in active listings to both increased seller activity and homes spending longer on the market. The statewide median days on the market rose to 23 in February, up from 17 in February 2025.

“Even with the economic headwinds, we’re still seeing encouraging signs as we head into spring,” Virginia Realtors 2026 President Curt Reichstetter, owner and broker of Two Dog Realty, said in a statement. “Inventory is growing, buyers have more options and many local markets are experiencing renewed activity. Realtors are working closely with clients to navigate these shifting conditions, and there’s still a lot of optimism about opportunities ahead.”

Based in Glen Allen, Virginia Realtors represents about 34,000 Realtors and is the state’s largest trade association.

Boeing lands up to $900M Air Force contract

Arlington County-based and has been awarded an up to $900 million contract to sustain and support T-38C Talon aircraft.

The indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity contract provides total lifecycle support for the Air Force’s T-38C avionics system. The T-38 Talon is a twin-engine, high-altitude supersonic jet trainer used by the Air Force to train pilots, including those who go on to fly frontline fighter aircraft. The T-38C has integrated avionics displays, a head-up display and an electronic “no drop bomb” scoring system in the cockpit.

According to the draft request for proposals issued in 2024, work will include maintenance services, engineering, contractor logistics support, software support, training systems and upgrades. A performance work statement included with the draft RFP indicated the Air Force operates more than 440 T-38C aircraft.

Boeing will perform work at numerous bases and locations in Mississippi, Texas, California, Oklahoma and New Mexico. According to the , the contract is expected to be completed by March 31, 2036.

The Air Force awarded the contract following a competitive solicitation that received only one offer. The Air Force Life Cycle Management Center’s Legacy Training Aircraft Division at Hill Air Force Base in Utah is the contracting activity and obligated $56.2 million at the time of award.

Boeing reported $89.5 billion in 2025 revenue and has more than 170,000 employees. It ended 2025 with a major restructuring that included cutting approximately 17,000 jobs.

North American farmers pinch pennies on farm machinery as profitless growing season approaches

Summary:
  • Sales of and down 30% to 40% in
  • estimates $1.2 billion tariff cost in 2026
  • Farm Credit Canada notes delayed equipment purchases

, Saskatchewan, April 3 (Reuters) – salespeople are wrapping up a dismal season of farm shows across North America as farmers gear up for spring planting without much new equipment.

Farmers have not stopped buying, but many have slashed spending and are avoiding big-ticket items due to high machinery, fertilizer and fuel prices, as well as a global grains glut pushing down .

“They might not buy the million-dollar combine, but they’ll buy a $100,000 implement,” said Chad Jones of manufacturer Degelman Industries, standing among his company’s rockpickers, harrows, rippers and other yellow-painted equipment at Canada’s Farm Show in March.

Farmers are still spending money, but far less than in other years, according to sales data from the , the organization that represents big players in the North American industry.

The group told Reuters that sales of big-ticket items like tractors and combines were down between 30% and 40% in the U.S. in March compared to a year ago.

Farm machinery sales have been hammered by a squeeze on farmer finances exacerbated by U.S. President ‘s trade war that have escalated the production cost of already-expensive machines like tractors and combines. These items, known by farmers as “big iron,” are manufactured from large amounts of steel and often with imported components.

The Trump administration is reported to be planning a 25% tariff on the value of finished imported goods that contain steel and aluminum, rather than just 50% on the metals content of those goods. That will likely raise the overall price of those products. However, goods that are mostly made from steel and aluminum, including tractors and combines, will still face the 50% tariff that has been in place for almost a year.

In its most recent quarterly earnings call, a John Deere official said the company estimates tariffs will cost it $1.2 billion in 2026, and that not all of 2025’s tariff costs had been passed on to farmers.

Last Friday, Trump called on the manufacturers to cut prices in order to help farmers.

But for the beleaguered industry, Trump’s tariffs are the problem. The easiest way to bring the cost of machinery down would be “to significantly scale back on the tariffs that are hitting the manufacturers, and the retaliatory tariffs that are hitting farmers,” said Kip Eideberg of the Association of Equipment Manufacturers.

Trade fights have hurt U.S. crop export sales, with China absent from the U.S. soybean exports market for months, depressing North American crop prices and creating huge stockpiles.

“They were looking at profitability being very tight to even potentially negative for the upcoming growing season, and this has led to slower decisions on equipment replacement,” said Farm Credit Canada economist Leigh Anderson. Farmers have delayed planned purchases, hanging on to aging equipment for longer, he said.

Signs of that lack of interest could be seen at the farm show in Regina, with few farmers kicking the tires of tractors and other large machinery. Despite over 5,000 people attending the show, many of the equipment displays were relatively quiet.

“It’s fair to characterize it as purchasing behavior shifting from wants to needs,” said Eideberg of AEM. Fertilizer and machinery production costs are hard to reduce once they have risen, which is why the AEM is hoping to see tariffs chopped.

“That’s the immediate relief that will make a significant difference for farmers and manufacturers,” said Eideberg.

 

(Reporting by Ed White, Editing by Emily Schmall and Aurora Ellis)

 

US labor market posts largest jobs gain in 15 months, but clouds brewing from Iran war

Summary:

WASHINGTON, April 3 (Reuters) – job growth rebounded more than expected in March as a strike by healthcare workers ended and temperatures warmed up, but downside risks for the labor market are mounting from a war with Iran that has no clear end in sight.

The biggest increase in nonfarm payrolls in 15 months, and also the largest since President returned to the White House, followed a sharp decline in February, the Labor Department’s closely watched employment report showed on Friday.

Nonetheless, the rebound exaggerates the labor market’s health. The average workweek was shorter last month and annual wage growth increased at its slowest pace in nearly five years.

While the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in February, that was because 396,000 people dropped out of the labor force, more than offsetting weakness in household employment. The labor force participation rate fell below 62% for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Economists said March was too early to capture the fallout from the Middle East conflict.

“This is an on-the-one hand, on-the-other kind of a job market,” said Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank. “This report tells us next to nothing about the ‘s impact on the job market.”

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 jobs last month, the most since December 2024, after a downwardly revised 133,000 drop in February, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 60,000 jobs after a previously reported 92,000 decrease in February.

Estimates ranged from a loss of 25,000 positions to a gain of 125,000 jobs. The has experienced months of positive and negative payrolls since May last year, with volatility intensifying this year. Economists attributed some of the choppiness to the birth-death model, which the government uses to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in a given month.

Others blamed uncertainty related to Trump’s sweeping import , which have since been struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court. Trump, however, responded by imposing a global tariff for up to 150 days.

Job growth averaged 68,000 per month in the first quarter, which economists said was a better reflection of the labor market’s health. Data from the BLS this week showed job openings decreased by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years in February, pointing to slipping labor demand.

March’s employment report likely has no impact on the interest rate outlook, with the effects of supply chain disruptions from the conflict still to work their way through the economy. The odds of a rate cut this year have greatly diminished. The left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range last month.

U.S. Treasury yields rose on the report. The stock market was closed for the Good Friday holiday.

“Since May 2025, each month of positive job growth has been followed by a month of negative growth, a pattern that likely reflects the tariff uncertainty that began in April,” said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economics at Fitch Ratings. “The war in Iran now threatens to add to that choppiness, especially if the conflict drags on and the uncertainty impulse intensifies. For the Fed, wait-and-see is the only sensible option at this point.”

HEALTHCARE DOMINATES JOB GROWTH

The war, now in its second month, has boosted global oil prices by more than 50%. Trump on Wednesday vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran.

The healthcare sector dominated the nearly broad increase in employment, adding 76,000 positions as 35,000 employees at doctors’ offices returned to work following a strike. Employment also increased at .

Construction employment increased by 26,000 jobs. Transportation and warehousing payrolls advanced by 21,000 positions, though employment in the sector remained down by 139,000 since peaking in February 2025.

There were further gains in social assistance employment. Manufacturing, which the Trump administration is trying to shore up with import duties, saw payrolls increasing by 15,000 jobs – the biggest gain since November 2023. Still factory payrolls are down 82,000 since January 2025.

Leisure and hospitality employment rebounded 44,000, with the bulk of the increase at restaurants and bars. Federal government employment declined by another 18,000 jobs, and is down 355,000, or 11.8% since peaking in October 2024. The White House embarked on an unprecedented campaign to slash the size of federal agencies, which Trump argued were bloated. The federal government is, however, now actively recruiting workers.

The financial activities sector shed more workers. There were signs of the adoption of artificial intelligence leading to job losses in the professional and business services sector, where positions for computer systems design and related services dropped by 13,200.

The share of industries reporting job growth increased to 56.8% from 49.2% in February. But the workweek eased to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours. A single month does not make a trend, but businesses will first reduce hours before resorting to layoffs.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% after increasing 0.4% in February. Wages increased 3.5% year-on-year, the smallest gain since May 2021, after advancing 3.8% in February. With the national average retail gasoline price topping $4 a gallon this week for the first time in more than three years, households’ purchasing power will be squeezed. The war wiped about $3.2 trillion from the stock market in March.

Details of the household survey, from which the unemployment rate is calculated, were mostly weak. The survey response rate, however, dropped to an all-time low of 63.9% from 65.9% in February.

Household employment decreased by 64,000 and more people worked part-time for economic reasons. The labor force participation rate dropped to 61.9%, declining below 62% for the first time in nearly 4-1/2 years in part as immigration flows ebb and the workforce ages.

Economists estimated the jobless rate would have risen to 4.5% were it not for the decline in the participation rate. A reduced labor force now means the economy needs to create fewer than 50,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

“The labor force is structurally tighter now than it was before COVID,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services. “The decline in the labor force participation rate since the pandemic recovery is coming from an aging workforce, and more recently the crackdown on immigration.”

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea Ricci)