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Oil prices rise 5% on fears of US-Iran ceasefire collapse

Summary:

LONDON, April 20 (Reuters) – Oil prices jumped about 5% in Monday trading on fears that the between the and could collapse after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely halted.

Brent crude futures advanced $4.37, or 4.8%, to $94.75 a barrel by 1148 GMT and U.S. was up $4.76, or 5.7%, at $88.61.

Both contracts tumbled by 9% on Friday for their largest daily declines since April 18 after Iran said that passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remainder of the ceasefire.

U.S. President , meanwhile, said that Iran had agreed never again to close the strait through which about a fifth of the world’s oil supply passed before the war began almost two months ago.

“Within 24 hours of Friday’s ‘completely open’ announcement, there were already tankers that were fired upon by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),” said Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh.

“Market fundamentals are getting worse, as 10-11 million barrels per day of crude oil remains shut in,” Goh added, referring to losses in oil production.

The United States said on Sunday that it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to break through its blockade while Iran said it would retaliate, heightening fears of a resumption in hostilities.

Tehran also said it would not participate in a second round of negotiations that the U.S. had hoped to start before the two-week ceasefire expires this week.

“The financial market is trading negotiations, improvements and resolution while at the same time the physical market is deteriorating day by day,” said analyst Bjarne Schieldrop. “Physical oil flows remain constrained by disrupted flows, longer voyage times and elevated freight and insurance costs.”

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a virtual standstill on Monday, with only three crossings in the past 12 hours, shipping data showed.

More than 20 ships passed through the strait on Saturday, carrying oil, liquefied petroleum gas, metals and fertilisers, Kpler data showed. That was the highest number of vessels crossing the waterway since March 1.

Elsewhere, China is curtailing refined fuel exports rather than banning them, with countries including Malaysia and Australia receiving supplies even after Beijing extended last month’s restriction into April, according to shipping data and traders.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly in London and Florence Tan and Siyi Liu in SingaporeEditing by David Goodman)

 

US homebuilders brace for another challenging year as war, tariffs hurt margins

Summary:
  • CEO Stuart Miller cites and immigration issues
  • KB Home CEO Robert McGibney notes material cost pressures
  • warns of in development costs hurting margins

April 20 (Reuters) – U.S. homebuilders will likely point to another challenging year as tariffs and the further squeeze margins, while rising inflation continues to sideline buyers, analysts said.

The sector has struggled with declining sales for several quarters, as years of underproduction, due to labor shortages and restrictive land zoning, have pushed home prices higher. The challenges have been exacerbated by new tariffs and the conflict, analysts said.

Residential construction input prices remain elevated after soaring during the post‑pandemic inflation spike.

Analysts at Barclays warned that “eventual inflation in development costs — pipe, freight, and infrastructure facing new inflationary dynamics — will be difficult for builders to pass on, leading to further margin challenges and/or more reduction in starts.”

Lennar CEO Stuart Miller acknowledged that tariffs and immigration issues were adding to material and labor costs.

“With affordability at stake, we have been working hard to push against and to manage these pressures through our trade partner relationships,” Miller said during an earnings call last month. “Nevertheless, the cost structure in the industry is pushing higher and is difficult to manage.”

Peer KB Home CEO Robert McGibney also flagged “some pressure on material costs from lumber.”

To protect sales volumes, many builders have leaned on incentives like , and analysts expect that trend to continue.

A brief dip in the 30-year fixed rate to below 6% in late February, on cooler inflation and falling Treasury yields, proved short lived, as rates soon climbed back to around 6.5% by early April, pressuring customers’ affordability.

The U.S.-Israel war with , which broke out on February 28, delivered a fresh blow to an already fragile housing recovery, sending and yields higher.

“With oil prices being higher, certainly, that can bleed into land development and vertical construction,” especially considering petroleum is needed for a lot of products that go into a home, driving up costs, KB Home’s McGibney said.

SLOW SPRING

“Geopolitical tensions, higher rates, and broader economic uncertainty are weighing on consumers in a vital period of the ,” said Barclays analyst Matthew Bouley.

Wells Fargo analyst Sam Reid echoed the concern, noting housing stocks have lagged the S&P 500 by 12 points since the start of the war.

The stakes are high, given buyer activity typically peaks from March through June.

Evercore ISI analyst Stephen Kim called this year’s spring selling season “disappointing” so far, with demand trends worse compared to the same period in 2024 and 2025.

Both Lennar and KB Home reported early spring sales below expectations.

“It is likely that builders begin another cycle of guidance reductions,” Bouley said. “Even if delivery guidances hold, we think there is (an) increasing risk of negative revisions later in the year.”

DR Horton reports results on Tuesday, followed by PulteGroup on Thursday, and NVR is also due this week.

(Reporting by Aatreyee Dasgupta in Bengaluru; editing by Arpan Varghese and Shinjini Ganguli)

 

Federal judge blocks $6B Nexstar-Tegna TV merger

Summary:
  • Troy L. Nunley issues preliminary injunction
  • Merger valued at $6.2 billion involves 265 tv stations
  • and eight state attorneys general lead lawsuit

A federal judge on Friday blocked the $6 billion merger of , the largest owner of TV stations in the United States, with its rival , until an is resolved.

Chief Judge Troy L. Nunley of the District Court for the Eastern District of California issued the preliminary injunction late Friday, finding that DirecTV and eight state attorneys general were likely to win in their legal effort to block the merger.

“Nexstar must permit Tegna to continue operating as a separate and distinct, independently managed business unit from Nexstar,” Nunley wrote in his ruling. “And Nexstar must put measures in place to maintain Tegna as an ongoing, economically viable, and active competitor.” His order takes effect on April 21. The judge previously issued a temporary order in late March that blocked the merger for three weeks.

DirecTV and the attorneys general, all Democrats, argue that the merger will raise prices for consumers and harm local journalism.

Nexstar affirmed its ownership of Tegna in a statement on Friday. “This transaction closed more than four weeks ago following receipt of all required regulatory approvals,” the statement said. “This pro-competitive transaction will make local stations stronger and support continued investment in local journalism and fact-based news.”

It added that it would appeal Friday’s ruling. Tegna did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Announced in August, the proposed merger won support from President , who voiced support for the deal in a Truth Social post in February. “We need more competition against THE ENEMY, the Fake News National TV Networks. Letting Good Deals get done like Nexstar – Tegna will help knock out the Fake News because there will be more competition,” the president wrote.

The $6.2 billion deal was approved in March by the and the . The merger would fundamentally alter the local television environment in the U.S.: Nexstar previously said the deal would give it 265 stations across the country.

FCC Chairman allowed the deal to proceed last month by waiving a cap that has historically barred station owners from expanding to reach more than 39 percent of American households. With 265 stations across 44 states and the District of Columbia, Nexstar would reach 80 percent of households.

DirecTV filed its lawsuit against the merger on the same day it was approved. The FCC approved it without a full commission vote, leading Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) to express concern about the process.

“This decision raises serious concerns about the Commission’s use of delegated authority in matters involving significant legal, policy, and economic consequences,” the two lawmakers wrote in a March 30 letter to the FCC. “The transaction is unprecedented in scale, resulting in the largest local broadcast television group in U.S. history.”

Anna Gomez, the lone Democratic commissioner on the FCC, applauded Friday’s ruling.

“What we saw here was a coordinated, multiagency effort to avoid accountability and judicial review, culminating in a same-day clearance, approval, and closing designed to shield the public from the real harms of this unprecedented merger,” Gomez wrote in a statement.

“Today’s ruling is an important step toward restoring accountability and ensuring that decisions of this magnitude are made with consumers in mind, not billion-dollar companies cutting backroom deals out of public view,” she wrote.

by Liam Scott | (c) 2026 , The Washington Post

Fed sees modest economic growth in Fifth District

SUMMARY:

Economic activity in the Federal Reserve’s Fifth District grew at a modest pace in recent weeks, as consumer spending and tourism picked up despite a winter weather slowdown, according to the Fed’s latest edition of the Beige Book released Wednesday.

The district encompasses Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, D.C., and most of West Virginia. Published eight times per year, the Beige Book is based on anecdotal information about gathered from the nation’s 12 Federal Reserve Banks. It is compiled from reports by Fed executives, as well as information collected from business contacts, community organizations, economists, market experts and other sources. The April edition is an update from the Fed’s March 4 report.

According to the latest Beige Book edition, employment in the Fifth District increased slightly in recent months. However, economic uncertainty prompted some firms to reassess hiring. The report said that conditions were mixed, with some businesses pulling back while others with greater certainty investing and expanding headcount. The Fed said several contacts reported modest wage increases to retain talent and keep pace with .

Prices increased moderately from the last cycle, with service-sector prices rising around 3% year-over-year and prices closer to 5%, as firms faced higher input costs from and rising oil prices, the Beige Book said.

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District was unchanged, with uncertainty continuing to affect operations. The book cited a compressor manufacturer that reported difficulty forecasting business performance due to unpredictable import costs. However, other businesses noted reported some improvement.

Cargo volumes at Fifth District ports saw a modest increase as firms restocked inventories and responded to a February Supreme Court decision limiting the president’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs. However, port contacts warned that a prolonged conflict in the could push up supply chain costs.

Consumer spending edged up since March but was tempered by winter storms. Retailers reported continued price sensitivity and lackluster discretionary spending. Several firms said tariffs on raw materials and finished goods have cut into profit margins by more than 20%.

However, hotel occupancy and revenue improved in recent weeks, with areas like Northern Virginia and Washington, D.C., seeing a modest uptick in seasonal travel demand compared to last year.

Residential real estate activity was little changed, the report said, with early signs of a strong spring market fading as mortgage rates climbed back above 6.5%, dampening buyer optimism. The recent rise in rates has come amid broader market volatility, in part tied to the war in .

Commercial real estate and retail and industrial activity were also largely unchanged. Unlike residential real estate, one Maryland agent said deals were proceeding despite a “fog of uncertainty.”

Loan demand remained steady, though a banker observed borrowing was largely driven by necessity rather than expansion. The Fed said that demand for nonfinancial services rose slightly, but clients remained hesitant to proceed with new projects amid economic uncertainty.

Wall Street indexes rally after Iran says Strait of Hormuz ‘completely open’

Summary:
  • Dow hits highest level since late February
  • Iranian foreign minister confirms strait is open
  • slide as oil prices tumble over 11%

April 17 (Reuters) – The benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq traded at record highs on Friday, while the blue-chip Dow hit its highest level since late February, as investors cheered ‘s decision to open the and were optimistic it could reach an agreement with the .

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in a post on X that passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” for the remainder of the 10-day truce between Israeli forces and Iran-backed Hezbollah agreed to in Lebanon.

This followed President ‘s announcement that talks could take place this weekend between Tehran and Washington and that they could soon secure a peace agreement to end the Iran war, which has left thousands dead since the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran on February 28.

With traders increasingly confident that an end to the war is near, U.S. crude oil prices tumbled more than 11%, alleviating concerns. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway for global energy transportation.

“The concern about oil putting the world into a slowdown diminishes as it’s onward and upward for a possible final deal,” said Bob Doll, CEO of Crossmark, who noted that while there is still no signed U.S.-Iran deal, “it looks like it’s heading in a direction that’s enough for the market to go up.”

At 2:13 p.m. EDT the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 914.48 points, or 1.88%, to 49,493.20, the S&P 500 gained 79.81 points, or 1.13%, to 7,121.09 and the gained 322.20 points, or 1.34%, to 24,424.91.

All three indexes were cruising toward their third consecutive week of gains. The Nasdaq Composite was on course to extend its winning run to 13 days, its longest since January 1992. The small-cap Russell 2000 hit its first intraday record high since the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted.

ENERGY STOCKS SLIDE AS OIL TUMBLES

Among the S&P 500’s 11 major industry sectors, energy was the biggest loser, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron among the benchmark’s top drags, down 3.9% and 2.5%, respectively.

The biggest gainer was consumer discretionary, with cruise operators Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line leading gains, up more than 8% and 7%, respectively. Industrials was also a top gainer, with airline stocks among its lead advancers. United Airlines was up nearly 7%.

The CBOE volatility index hit a more than two-month low before paring losses but was still down 0.38 point at 17.57.

CAUTION PERSISTS ON STRAIT PASSAGE

Still, some analysts cautioned that logistical challenges remain for shippers.

“Ship operators still face astronomical war-risk insurance premiums, potential mine hazards, and uncertainty about enforcement,” said Erik Bethel, general partner at maritime-focused investment firm Mare Liberum.

The S&P’s biggest drag was from Netflix, which dropped 10% after forecasting current-quarter earnings below expectations. The company also announced the exit of co-founder and longtime Chairman Reed Hastings, ending a 29-year tenure.

Alcoa fell 6.9% after the aluminum producer reported first-quarter profit and revenue below analysts’ estimates, citing elevated costs and softening demand.

Markets are currently pricing in a 50% chance that the U.S. will cut interest rates in December, based on fed-funds futures prices. This marks a drastic change from a 20% chance earlier in the session, according to LSEG-compiled data.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 4.14-to-1 ratio on the New York Stock Exchange, where there were 563 new highs and 39 new lows. On the Nasdaq, 3,566 stocks rose and 1,170 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 3.05-to-1 ratio. The S&P 500 posted 48 new 52-week highs and no new lows.

(Reporting by Sinead Carew in New York; Additional reporting by Niket Nishant and Avinash P in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid and Matthew Lewis)

 

Raytheon wins $904.6M Army contract modification

Raytheon, a subsidiary of County-based aerospace and defense contractor , has been awarded a $904.6 million modification to support an initial, limited production run of five Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor (LTAMDS) units and six spares.

The award covers new production hardware, software and related services, including documentation. The modification increases the contract’s total value, originally awarded in 2024, to $5.36 billion.

According to the , bids were solicited online, with one received.

Work will be performed in Andover, Massachusetts, with an estimated completion date of Aug. 29, 2031. The Army obligated $725.88 million in fiscal 2026 missile procurement funds at the time of the award.

According to RTX, LTAMDS is a radar tool designed to detect and track advanced threats, including hypersonic weapons. The system uses three antenna arrays to provide 360-degree coverage, allowing it to identify and engage multiple threats simultaneously.

The Army Contracting Command at Redstone Arsenal, Alabama, is the contracting activity.

RTX has more than 180,000 employees globally and reported more than $88.6 billion in 2025 sales. The contractor is the second-highest-ranked Virginia-based company on the 2025 Fortune 500. RTX’s business unit is also based in Arlington.

Leidos, Analogic to form security screening joint venture

SUMMARY:

  • will combine its SES business with Analogic to form a tech
  • The company will operate under the Analogic brand, with Leidos holding a 41.5% stake and Altaris affiliates owning the majority
  • Leidos is contributing 1,500 employees in unit with about $625 million in projected 2026 revenue
  • The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026

-based government contractor Leidos this week announced plans to combine its Security Enterprise Solutions business with New Hampshire-based imaging and detection technology company Analogic to form a new joint venture focused on security screening technologies for airports, borders and critical infrastructure worldwide.

Leidos said Wednesday it entered into an agreement with New York-based investment firm Altaris, which owns Analogic.

The privately held company will operate under the Analogic brand, with Leidos retaining a 41.5% minority stake. Affiliates of Altaris will hold the remaining 58.5%.

As part of the deal, Leidos will contribute its SES business, representing approximately 1,500 employees and $625 million in projected 2026 revenue. A company spokesperson said that figure reflects only the Leidos portion of the business and that the company is not providing longer-term growth or profitability projections at this time.

“Our unified joint venture represents a focused step to strengthen capabilities in security detection at a time when global travel and trade continue to grow,” Leidos CEO Tom Bell said in a statement.

The joint venture will combine Leidos’ SES business with Analogic’s detection technologies, capabilities and engineering expertise into a single U.S.-based enterprise with global reach. Leidos’ SES unit provides security detection systems for airports, ports, borders and other critical infrastructure, with systems deployed in 129 countries and customers across both government and commercial sectors.

A Leidos spokesperson said the new company’s management team will develop specifics of the joint venture’s strategy after the deal closes.

The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and other customary conditions. The spokesperson said integration of the two businesses will begin following the closing.

Upon closing, the combined company will be led by Analogic CEO Tom Ripp. Both businesses will continue to operate independently until then.
Leidos said the combination is intended to improve product innovation and streamline research and development, manufacturing and operations, while accelerating the transition to AI-enabled and 3D imaging screening technologies.

“Today marks an important milestone for our company and for the security industry,” Ripp said in a statement. “By combining two highly complementary organizations, we are creating a stronger, more capable company with the expertise and breadth of solutions to better meet evolving customer needs worldwide.”

Leidos has approximately 50,000 employees and reported $17.2 billion in revenue for its most recent fiscal year. Analogic employs about 900 people globally and develops imaging and detection technologies for aviation security, health care and industrial markets.

Oil falls by over 11% after Iran FM declares Strait of Hormuz open

Summary:
  • down 3.10% to $96.31 per barrel
  • Trump says deal is very close
  • Israel-lebanon 10-day raises peace hopes

LONDON, April 17 (Reuters) – plunged by about 11% on Friday, extending earlier losses, after Iran’s foreign minister said that passage for all commercial vessels through the was open for the remaining ceasefire period.

Brent crude futures were $10.59, or 10.7%, lower at $88.80 a barrel at 1340 GMT, after falling to a session low of $87.71. U.S. crude futures were down $10.80, or 11.4%, at $83.89 a barrel, after touching $83. Both contracts were trading at their lowest since March 11.

“Comments from Iran’s foreign minister indicate a de-escalation as long as the ceasefire is in place, now we need to see also if the number of tankers crossing the Strait increases substantially,” analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Prices had already fallen earlier in the session as possible further talks between the and Iran at the weekend and a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel raised investors’ hopes the war in the could be nearing an end.

Addressing a sticking point in talks, U.S. President Donald Trump said Tehran had offered not to possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years.

“We’re going to see what happens. But I think we’re very close to making a deal with Iran,” Trump told reporters outside the White House on Thursday.

A U.S. official told Reuters shortly after the announcement that the Strait was open that a military blockade of Iran involving more than 10,000 personnel remains in effect.

While the opening up of the Strait was a step in the right direction, the European market would remain tight for a while, analyst Ole Hvalbye at said, since it takes roughly 21 days for ships to move from the Gulf to Rotterdam, the main crude port in the region.

(Reporting by Robert Harvey, Ahmad Ghaddar, Shadia Nasralla and Seher Dareen in London, Helen Clark in Perth; Editing by Louise Heavens, Kirsten Donovan)

Companies scramble for tariff refunds as US prepares to launch claim process

Summary:
  • Customs launches refund system for $166 billion
  • CEO Jay Foreman seeks $7 million in refunds
  • 56,497 registered for $127 billion in refunds

April 17 (Reuters) – Jay Foreman said he’s “locked and loaded” for the U.S. government’s launch on Monday of a new system to refund up to $166 billion in illegally collected , but he and many other importers are realistic that much could still go wrong.

“You have to be worried about what they could possibly do to jam things up,” said the CEO of toymaker Basic Fun, which sells Tonka trucks, Care Bears and K’Nex construction toys.

The refund system is the latest twist in a drawn-out battle over tariffs collected over the past year as part of President ‘s effort to restructure U.S. with almost every nation on earth. The constantly shifting tariffs roiled global business as companies rushed to shift supply chains to avoid them as well as figure out who would ultimately pay the taxes.

The U.S. Supreme Court in February struck down the tariffs President Trump pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies, handing the Republican president a stinging defeat.

In a court filing on Tuesday, U.S. Customs and Border Protection said it had completed development of the initial phase of the refund system, known as CAPE. The system will consolidate refunds so importers will get one electronic payment, with interest when applicable, rather than processing refunds on an entry-by-entry basis. Critics of Trump’s tariffs had pushed for a streamlined process.

A CBP spokesman said they created a system that will “efficiently process refunds, pursuant to court order, for importers and brokers who paid” the duties.

Customs officials said as of April 9, some 56,497 importers had completed the steps necessary to receive electronic refunds, an amount totaling $127 billion, or more than three-quarters of the total eligible to be refunded. More than 330,000 importers paid ​the tariffs at issue on 53 million shipments of imported goods, according to court filings.

Matt Field, CFO of heavy truck maker , is one of them. The Wisconsin-based manufacturer doesn’t disclose how much it paid in emergency tariffs, but Field said it’s an “impactful” amount. “I’m a CFO, so I do chase every dollar,” he said.

Field said he’s prepared to file for a refund as soon as the customs portal opens but may wait for the “system to settle.”

Multiple importers reached by Reuters said they are concerned about the durability of the new filing system, at least in the opening phase as thousands rush to upload their claims.

“It’s not like Taylor Swift tickets going on sale,” said Basic Fun CEO Foreman, who is seeking $7 million in refunds, but with so many companies looking for a refund at the same time, there’s “no telling if it crashes the portal.”

‘THERE ARE WRINKLES’

There are plenty of potential logistics glitches. Jason Cheung, CEO of , a U.S.-based toymaker with a factory in China, said, “It’ll be nice to get that money back,” but added, “it looks like the government is trying to make it difficult.”

Cheung noted that registration requires entering bank account information even though the government already has it for customs payments. And company names must be exact. “It took me five tries before we could get registered due to minor differences like ‘company’ versus ‘co,'” Cheung said.

Still, he said, “we are very used to filling out forms” and have “no concerns” about ultimately getting a successful refund.

That sentiment was echoed by Rick Woldenberg, CEO of educational toy maker , one of the key plaintiffs in the court case that led to the tariffs’ undoing.

“There are wrinkles, of course, but I am pleased to see the government do the right thing,” said Woldenberg, whose company is seeking more than $10 million.

Refunds can be claimed by any company that is the legal entity that paid the taxes, so the issue reaches beyond U.S. borders. German fan manufacturer ebm-papst told Reuters it was already registered on the portal.

But as the system “is a new functionality created by U.S. Customs, it remains to be seen how well the system will actually handle the bulk processing of refund claims,” a spokesperson for the Mulfingen, Germany-based company said.

Companies prepping claims also said they worry about a last-minute legal move by the Trump administration that could also slow the process. Customs has until early May to appeal the Court of International Trade’s order requiring they create the tariff refund portal.

Meanwhile, the refund process opens a different challenge for many importers. “The real complexity here is how to deal with my customers, assuming we get the tariffs back,” said Austin Ramirez, CEO of Husco International in Waukesha, Wisconsin, a producer of hydraulic components used in automotive and off-road equipment like bulldozers.

“The question is what we do with it, do we keep it, pass it on to them?” It’s a unique situation with each customer, he noted.

Just who gets the refunds has become a political issue after U.S. consumers endured a year of tariff-elevated prices. The system is set up to refund the importer of record, not ultimate end users who paid higher goods prices as a result.

At a congressional budget hearing on Thursday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer – a key architect of the tariffs struck down by the high court and of the new import levies the administration is scrambling to install in their place – was asked if the administration had any plans for refunds for households.

The attorneys general for the Democratic-led states who filed one of the lawsuits decided by the Supreme Court “asked for the money to go back to the companies,” Greer said. “The Democrat attorneys general asked for this and they’re getting what they asked for.”

(Reporting by Timothy Aeppel; Nicholas P. Brown; and Christoph Steitz; additional reporting by Tom Hals; Editing by Daniel Burns and Anna Driver)

US tariffs drive steep drop in EU exports for second month

Summary:
  • Eu exports to US fell 26.4% in february
  • Eu trade surplus with US reduced by 60%
  • shipyard sees no decisive tariff impact

BRUSSELS, April 17 (Reuters) – exports to the dropped by more than a quarter for a second consecutive month in February, but may be exaggerating the impact of President ‘s , given they follow a year-ago period when front-loading began.

Exports from the 27-nation European Union to the United States fell by 26.4% in February, EU statistics agency said on Friday, following a 27.8% drop in January, and contributing to a 60% reduction in the EU’s trade surplus.

The figures though are likely distorted by their comparison with the unprecedented trade of early 2025, when shipments peaked ahead of Trump’s tariffs from March. In January and February 2025, exports to the United States rose by respectively 16.0% and 22.4%.

Assessing the real impact of tariffs is not simple. Economists tend to see the fourth quarter of 2025 as a more reliable gauge, with an EU-U.S. deal in place, although the euro’s 8.9% average appreciation against the dollar from a year earlier will also have hit.

Q4 DROP OF 15% SERVES AS GUIDE

In the fourth quarter, EU exports to the United States were down 15%, iron and steel exports nearly 40% lower and chemicals off by 60-80%, albeit after significant front-loading earlier in the year.

economist Vincent Stamer noted that EU exports to other destinations increased – Eurostat puts that figure at 6.1% – and cautioned that the damage was likely to get worse.

“Past episodes of tariff hikes have shown us that it takes trade flows two to three years to fully respond to new tariffs,” he said.

New tariffs on patented pharmaceuticals, a major EU export, will also weigh, Stamer said, adding Commerzbank had calculated that U.S. tariffs will likely reduce the euro area GDP by 0.3% in 2026 alone.

Car producers in the EU were by the October-December period benefitting from a U.S. tariff reduced to 15% from 25%, but exports were 22% lower, albeit not as sharp a drop as in the second and third quarters.

ING research shows that U.S. chemicals and transport equipment exports to the EU also rose from early 2024 to late 2025 and noted that the share of the United States of overall EU exports fell from early 2024 to late 2025 in all major countries except France.

However, EU exports of aluminium and copper and copper products, despite facing 50% U.S. tariffs, increased by respectively 9% and 15% in the final three months of last year.

The aluminium increase was partly to cover a technical issue at a U.S. plant, industry group said. For copper, the U.S. simply does not have sufficient domestic capacity to cover demand, leading to prices that meant EU exports made sense even with the tariff, sector association European Metals said.

Ships and boats though were the standout, more than tripling in the fourth quarter after nearly tripling in the third.

Meyer Turku shipyard in Finland, owned by the German Meyer family, said the U.S. tariffs had not had a “decisive impact”. It delivered one of the world’s largest cruise ships, “Star of the Seas”, to [RCL.N] last year and secured an agreement for shipbuilding reservations with the operator until 2036.

The European Boating Industry, representing yachts and pleasure boats, said sales to the United States had spiked in June, but slipped afterwards, though not to a level that might have been expected due to tariffs, perhaps because deliveries related to orders from some time in the past.

On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which he had pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies. But only days later, the U.S. imposed a new temporary global import levy and is planning to reconstruct tariffs to replicate those agreed with the EU last year.

(Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop; additional reporting by Anna Kauranen in Helsinki; editing by Joe Bavier and Chizu Nomiyama )