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Wall Street rises and markets rally worldwide as Trump softens his tough talk on tariffs and the Fed

 

SUMMARY: 

  • climbs 1.7% as global stock hits Wall Street
  • Trump backs off criticism, hints at lower China
  • Big Tech and AI-related stocks lead the day’s market gains
  • dip as investor fears ease on economic policy

 

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks rose Wednesday as a worldwide rally came back around to Wall Street after appeared to back off his criticism of the and his tough talk in his .

The S&P 500 climbed 1.7% and added to its big gain from Tuesday that more than made up for a steep loss on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 419 points, or 1.1%, and the composite gained 2.5%.

Wall Street’s gains followed strong moves higher for stocks across much of Europe and Asia. They also continued a dizzying, up-and-down run for financial markets as investors struggle with how to react to so much uncertainty about what Trump will do with his economic policies.

The market’s latest move was up in part because Trump said late Tuesday that he has “no intention” to fire the head of the Federal Reserve. Trump had been angry with Jerome Powell, whom Trump had called “a major loser,” because of the Fed’s hesitance to cut interest rates.

Trump’s tough talk had frightened investors because the Fed is supposed to act independently, without pressure from politicians, so that it can make decisions that may be painful in the short term but are best for the long term.

While a cut to interest rates by the Fed could give the economy a boost, it could also put upward pressure on inflation. Economists say Trump’s tariffs are likely both to slow the economy and to raise inflation, at least briefly.

Trump may have recognized the market’s fear about a move against Powell. He may also be looking to keep someone around whom Trump could blame later if the economy does fall into a recession, according to Thierry Wizman, a strategist at Macquarie.

“Indeed, if the Fed cuts its policy interest rates aggressively, Trump would have little excuse for a recession apart from the pugnacity of his tariff policies,” Wizman said.

Markets also rose after Trump said late Tuesday that U.S. tariffs on imports coming from China could come down “substantially” from the current 145%. “It won’t be that high, not going to be that high,” Trump said.

The hope along Wall Street has been that Trump would lower his tariffs after negotiating trade deals with other countries, and Trump said Tuesday he would be “very nice” to the world’s second-largest economy and not play hardball with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“There is an opportunity for a big deal here,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday.

If Trump brings his tariffs down enough, investors believe a recession could be averted.

U.S. businesses say they’re already feeling the effects of the trade war. A preliminary reading of U.S. business activity fell to a 16-month low, as the threat of tariffs helped push up prices charged for goods and services, according to S&P Global’s latest survey released Wednesday.

All the uncertainty means one of the few predictions many along Wall Street are willing to make is that sharp swings for financial markets will continue for a while. The market will “more likely than not continue to be dictated by Trump’s latest whims regarding tariffs and trade,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

The S&P 500 remains 12.5% below its record set earlier this year after briefly dropping roughly 20% below the mark. Its swings have been coming not just day to day but also hour to hour as Trump and his administration’s officials continue to surprise markets. On Wednesday alone, the S&P 500 charged to a 3.4% gain in the morning, only to more than halve that rise as the day progressed.

Trump’s latest comments had a relaxing effect on the bond market, where Treasury yields eased. It’s a turnaround from earlier this month, when spiking Treasury yields raised fears that Trump’s actions were scaring investors away from the United States and weakening the U.S. bond market’s reputation as one of the safest places to keep cash.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.38% from 4.41% late Tuesday. It dropped as low as 4.26% earlier in the morning.

On Wall Street, Big Tech helped lead stock indexes higher.

Nvidia rose 3.9% to claw back more of the sharp losses it took last week, when it said U.S. restrictions on exports of its H20 chips to China could hurt its first-quarter results by $5.5 billion. The chip company’s stock was the strongest single force lifting the S&P 500.

Other stocks in the artificial-intelligence technology ecosystem also drove higher. Vertiv Holdings, which traces its roots to the industry’s first manufacturer of computer room air conditioning, jumped 8.5% after reporting stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It said it’s continuing to see accelerated demand from AI data centers.

Super Micro Computer, a company that makes servers used in AI, rose 7.6%. Palantir Technologies, which offers an AI platform for customers, climbed 7.3%.

revved 5.4% higher after CEO Elon Musk said he’ll spend less time in Washington and more time running his electric vehicle company after Tesla on late Tuesday reported a big drop in profits. It’s been struggling because of backlash against Musk’s efforts to lead cost-cutting efforts by the U.S. government.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 88.10 points to 5,375.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 419.59 to 39,606.57, and the Nasdaq composite gained 407.63 to 16,708.05.

In stock markets abroad, indexes jumped 2.1% in France, 2.4% in Hong Kong and 1.9% in Japan. Stocks in Shanghai were an exception, where they dipped 0.1%.

19 Virginians are finalists for EY Mid-Atlantic Entrepreneur of the Year

Nineteen Virginia business leaders are among the 36 finalists for ‘s 2025 Mid-Atlantic of the Year award, according to a Tuesday announcement.

The Big Four global professional services firm will name the regional awards winners on June 18.

‘s Mid-Atlantic region covers Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C. Of the 36 finalists, seven were from Maryland and 10 were from the District. In total, this year’s mid-Atlantic EY regional finalists generated nearly $51 billion in 2024, employing more than 169,000 people. Over the most recent three-year period, they averaged 46% growth in revenue and 32% workforce growth.

In the U.S., the EY competition is divided into 17 regions. Regional winners compete in November for national awards, and the national winner represents the U.S. in EY’s World Entrepreneur of the Year competition. EY founded its Entrepreneur of the Year program in 1986.

“Our independent panel of judges selected bold entrepreneurs who show resilience and adaptability as well as a dedication to solving real problems in business and society,” Lisa Kelly, Mid-Atlantic Program Co-Director, stated in a news release. “We are delighted to recognize their successes.”

The Virginia finalists include:

  • Jeff Beck, co-founder and CEO, AnswersNow,
  • Gloria Bohan, founder, president and CEO, Omega World Travel, Fairfax County
  • Olivia Trivisani Bowker, founder and CEO, Amivero,
  • Mitchell Cho, founder and CEO, FedWriters, Fairfax County
  • Greg Craddock, CEO, Patriot Group International,
  • Glenn Diersen, founder and president, Summit Human Capital, Richmond
  • Mark Drever, founding partner and CEO, Xcelerate Solutions,
  • Kathy Freeland, president and CEO, A-TEK, McLean
  • Shawn Gundrum, president and CEO, Cathexis,
  • Craig Halliday, CEO, Unanet, Dulles
  • Kendall Holbrook, CEO, Dev Technology Group, Reston
  • Amir Hudda, CEO, Qu,
  • Gautam Ijoor, founder, president and CEO, Alpha Omega,
  • Felix Lloyd, co-founder and CEO, Zoobean, Arlington County
  • Shubhi Mishra, founder and CEO, Raft, McLean
  • Ahmad Nassar, CEO, Winners Alliance, Tysons
  • Bill Schaefer, president and CEO, Amyx, Reston
  • Rob Schroder, founder and managing partner, SteerBridge, Tysons
  • Matt Small, president and CEO, Symplicity, Arlington County

 

 

Federal contractor Amentum to sell Rapid Solutions for $360M

Chantilly-based federal contractor Amentum announced Wednesday it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its hardware and product business, , to company for $360 million.

Amentum says the sale will accelerate debt reduction. The transaction, which is subject to customary regulatory approvals and conditions, is expected to close in the second half of the year and generate approximately $325 million in after-tax proceeds.

“The divestiture of Rapid Solutions sharpens Amentum’s focus on mission critical services and reinforces our position as a global pure-play provider of advanced engineering and technology-enabled solutions,” Adam Harrison, Amentum’s senior vice of strategy and corporate development, said in a statement.

Rapid Solutions manufactures products that aid , including advanced communications and tactical systems. It accounts for approximately 1% of Amentum’s annual revenues and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. In December 2024, Amentum reported about $8.4 billion in revenue for fiscal 2024.

According to Amentum, about 230 employees will transition to Lockheed Martin upon close of the sale. Amentum will provide more information during its second-quarter earnings call on May 7.

Amentum has more than 53,000 employees in approximately 80 countries across all seven continents. The company was founded as a spinout of AECOM’s Management Services Group in 2020 and moved its headquarters from Germantown, Maryland, to in 2023.

Headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, Lockheed Martin is an aerospace and manufacturer that specializes in aeronautics, missiles and fire control, rotary and missions’ systems and space-related technology. The company reported $71 billion in net sales and $5.3 billion in net earnings in 2024. It has 350 facilities globally and 121,000 employees worldwide.

Boeing doesn’t expect its recovery to be impacted by trade war with China

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said Wednesday that he doesn’t expect the U.S. with China to forestall the -based company’s financial recovery, nor prevent it from reaching aircraft delivery targets with Chinese airlines now refusing to accept Boeing planes.

Speaking on CNBC, Ortberg said that Boeing had three airplanes in China ready for delivery, but that two of them had been returned to Seattle so far because Beijing has stopped taking deliveries due to the dispute with the U.S.

While the company had planned to send about 50 airplanes to China this year, Ortberg said Boeing will be “pretty pragmatic” going forward.

“For those airplanes that haven’t been built yet, we’ll be looking to maybe redirect those to other customers,” he said. “For the airplanes that have been built, we call it remarketing. There’s plenty of customers out there looking for the Max aircraft.”

Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on April 2 that triggered panic in the financial markets and generated recession fears, causing the U.S. president to quickly put a partial 90-day hold on the import taxes and increase his already steep tariffs against China to as much as 145%.

On Tuesday U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a speech that the ongoing tariffs showdown against China is unsustainable and he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Boeing reported its first-quarter financial results on Wednesday, posting an adjusted loss of 49 cents per share on revenue of $19.5 billion. The results topped the expectations of analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment , which called for a loss of $1.54 per share on revenue of $19.29 billion.

The company also significantly reduced its cash burn to approximately $2.29 billion from nearly $4 billion in the prior-year period.

Shares of Boeing rose more than 6% in morning trading.

pretax loss

In other Virginia-based news, -headquartered Northrop Grumman on Tuesday reported first-quarter net income of $481 million, which did not meet Wall Street expectations. CEO Kathy Warden said in Tuesday’s earnings call that the giant had incurred a $477 million pretax loss on the first five aircraft for its U.S. Air Force B-21 Raider stealth bomber program.

Higher materials costs, as well as changes in the production process to speed it up, were related to the loss, Warden said.

Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, were $6.06 a share, down from the average estimate of nine analysts of $6.21 per share.

The defense contractor posted revenue of $9.47 billion in the period, which also did not meet Wall Street forecasts. Seven analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research expected $9.91 billion.

Northrop Grumman expects full-year earnings in the range of $24.95 to $25.35 per share, with revenue in the range of $42 billion to $42.5 billion.

On Wednesday, Reston-based reported first-quarter net income of $994 million, a profit of $3.66 per share, which beat Wall Street forecasts of $3.47 a share. General Dynamics posted revenue of $12.22 billion in the first quarter, over a Wall Street expectation of $11.95.

Arlington-based on Tuesday reported earnings of $1.54 billion in the first quarter of the year, with adjusted earnings at $1.47 per share. That beat Wall Street expectations of $1.35 a share. The aerospace and defense company posted revenue of $20.31 billion in the quarter, up from a forecast by analysts of $19.71 billion.

Virginia Business Deputy Editor Kate Andrews contributed to this story.

Dominion Energy shakes up senior executive responsibilities

Fortune 500 announced Wednesday it’s making major changes to the responsibilities for three senior executives, effective June 1.

The changes are tied to the June 1 retirement of , executive vice and chief operating officer, who announced her planned departure in December 2024. A spokesperson said when her retirement was announced, most of her responsibilities were transitioned to Ed Baine, president of Dominion Energy Virginia, and Eric Carr, Dominion Energy’s chief nuclear officer.

One of the announced changes is that Carlos M. Brown, president of and Dominion executive vice president, chief legal officer and corporate secretary, will oversee the company’s project construction group that includes major generation and gas construction projects. Starting June 1, he will become executive vice president, chief administrative and projects officer and corporate secretary and will continue to serve as president of Dominion Energy Services.

Dominion Energy Mark Mitchell profile
Mark D. Mitchell is being promoted from Dominion’s senior vice president of project construction to president. Photo courtesy Dominion Energy.

According to a news release, Brown joined the company in 2007 and has since taken on various business, operational, legal and executive roles. He has bachelor’s and law degrees from the , where he is vice rector of the Board of Visitors.

Mark D. Mitchell, who has four decades of utility construction experience, is being promoted from senior vice president of project construction to president, and he will report to Brown. Mitchell joined Dominion in 2000 and holds a bachelor’s degree from the University of Delaware and an MBA from Wilmington College.

While Brown currently oversees Dominion’s law department, that responsibility will shift to Regina J. “Gina” Elbert, senior vice president and chief human resources officer, on June 1. Her new title will be senior vice president and chief legal and human resources officer, and she will be responsible for the company’s law and HR functions. Elbert came to Dominion Energy in 2011 and has a bachelor’s degree from the University of Virginia and a law degree from Harvard Law School.

Regina J. “Gina” Elbert will be responsible for both Dominion's law and HR functions in June. Photo Courtesy Dominion Energy
Regina J. “Gina” Elbert will be responsible for both Dominion’s law and HR functions beginning in June. Photo courtesy Dominion Energy.

Baine, Carr, Brown and Elbert will continue reporting to Dominion President and CEO Robert M. Blue, according to the release.

“These five talented leaders from Dominion Energy’s deep bench are highly experienced and capable,” Blue said in a statement. “Carlos, Ed, Eric, Gina and Mark are following in the footsteps of an outstanding leader in our company and in our industry, and the board of directors and I are confident in their leadership.”

Headquartered in , Dominion Energy provides regulated service to 3.6 million homes and businesses in Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina, as well as regulated natural gas service to 500,000 customers in South Carolina. The company also develops and operates regulated offshore wind and solar power.

Tariff turmoil: How Tesla and other companies are dealing with the uncertainty of the trade war

NEW YORK (AP) — Uncertainty over and an unpredictable trade war is weighing heavily on companies as they report their latest financial results and try to give investors financial forecasts.

Some tariffs remain in place against key U.S. trading partners, but others have been postponed to give nations time to negotiate. The tariff and trade picture has been shifting for months, sometimes changing drastically on a daily basis. Those shifts make it difficult for companies and investors to make a reliable assessment of any impact to costs and sales.

On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war between the U.S. and China, but cautioned that talks between the two sides had yet to formally start.

Here’s how several big companies are dealing with the tariff confusion:

Tesla

Tesla is in a better position than most car companies to deal with tariffs because it makes most of its U.S. cars domestically. But it still sources materials from other nations and will face import taxes.

The bigger impact will be seen in the company’s energy business. The company said the impact will be “outsized” because it sources from China.

The broader trade war could also hurt the company as China, the world’s largest electric vehicle market, retaliates against the U.S. Tesla was forced earlier this month to stop taking orders from mainland customers for two models, its Model S and Model X. It makes the Model Y and Model 3 for the Chinese market at its factory in Shanghai.

CEO , a member of Trump’s administration, on Tuesday reiterated that he believes “lower tariffs are generally a good idea for prosperity.” But he added that ultimately the decides on what tariffs to impose.

Akzo Nobel

The Amsterdam-based maker of paints and coatings for industrial and commercial use said the big risk from tariffs could come in the form of lower demand for its products.

The company said almost all sales of finished goods in the U.S. were locally produced, with the majority of raw materials locally sourced.

“Over the years, we deliberately localized both our procurement and production in the U.S.,” said CEO Gregoire Poux-Guillaume, in a conference call with analysts. “We also largely run China for China and use the rest of Asia instead as an export base.”

The company’s products range from paints and coatings for the automotive industry to the do-it-yourself homeowner. Broader tariffs could squeeze consumers and businesses and hurt sales.

Boston Scientific

The medical device maker said it expects most of the effecs of tariffs to hit the company during the second half of the year, but that it can absorb the impact.

The company raised its earnings and revenue forecasts for the year, despite the tariffs. It estimates a $200 million impact from tariffs in 2025, but said it can offset that through higher sales and reductions in discretionary spending.

The company said it has a long-standing supply chain around the globe and has made significant investments in the U.S.

Stock market today: Markets bounce after Trump says he won’t try to fire Fed Chair Powell

U.S. markets are poised to open with big gains, a clear sign of relief after Donald Trump said he would not attempt to fire the head of the Federal Reserve.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.9% before the bell Wednesday, while S&P 500 futures rose 2.6%. futures climbed a full 3%.

Trump, upset that the Federal Reserve was not cutting immediately, said that he could fire Chair . But Trump told reporters Tuesday, “I have no intention of firing him.”

Trump wants Powell and the Fed to resume cutting its benchmark borrowing rate to help boost the economy. Powell and other Fed official have said they plan to remain cautious with interest rates amid the economic uncertainty caused by Trump’s and inflation that remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

Most legal scholars agree that Trump can’t fire Powell from the Fed’s board of governors, and there is no legal precedent for doing so. However, there is less agreement over whether a president can remove him as chair.

Markets are also reacting to comments Tuesday from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He said the ongoing tariffs showdown with China is unsustainable and he expects a “de-escalation” in the .

“Of course, markets will continue to listen out for the latest White House rhetoric on tariffs and any hints of upcoming trade deals. As such, market direction will more likely than not continue to be dictated by Trump’s latest whims regarding tariffs and trade,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

The only prediction many Wall Street strategists are willing to make is that financial markets will likely continue to gyrate along with hopes that Trump may negotiate deals with other countries to lower his tariffs. If no such deals come quickly enough, many investors expect the economy to fall into a recession.

Among stocks seeing a big rebound is , after Elon Musk that he will spend less time in Washington and more time running his electric vehicle company. The promise follows the company’s quarterly financial report late Tuesday and a massive tail off in profit. Tesla has been racked by vandalism of its cars on the street, it’s dealerships, widespread protests and calls for a consumer boycott, all a backlash to Musk’s oversight of cost-cutting efforts for the U.S. government.

Musk’s promise to distance himself from the overshadowed fading profits at Tesla, which tumbled from $1.39 billion to $409 million in the .

Tesla shares rose 7% before the opening bell Wednesday.

Big technology stocks also gained early Wednesday, with Nvidia leading the way. The chipmaker’s shares have swung wildly with the recent market undulations and were up 5.5% before the bell.

Apple rose 3% and Meta gained 4.5%, after the European Union fined the companies 500 million euros and 200 million euros, respectively, for breaching its digital competition rules.

In Europe at midday, France’s CAC 40 jumped 2.4%, while Germany’s DAX rose 2.6%. Britain’s FTSE 100 gained 1.4%.

In Asia, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 gained 1.9% to finish at 34,868.63. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 surged 1.3% to 7,920.50. South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.6% to 2,525.56. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 2.4% to 222,072.62, while the Shanghai Composite edged down 0.1% to 3,296.36.

In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude added 55 cents to $64.22 a barrel, but is still on track for its worst month since October 2023. That’s been good for consumers, with the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. Wednesday coming in at $3.17, nearly 14% lower than last year at this point.

Brent crude, the international standard added 54 cents to $67.98 a barrel.

The U.S. dollar declined to 141.99 Japanese yen from 142.37 yen. The euro cost $1.1392, up from $1.1379. ___

UPDATED: Virginia university presidents among petition signers decrying federal ‘overreach’

Updated April 25

The presidents of the , the University of , , Virginia Wesleyan University, Roanoke College, and Emory & Henry University this week signed an American Association of Colleges and endorsed by more than 450 university presidents and other leaders condemning what it calls the Trump White House’s “unprecedented government overreach and political interference.”

As of 11 a.m. Friday, April 25, Emory & Henry President A. Louise Fincher’s name no longer appeared on the list of 480 signers, although it was there earlier in the week. According to a statement from the university, Fincher’s name was removed by the university’s request.

Emory & Henry was removed from the list of signatories at our request given the lack of context provided in news coverage about the American Association of Colleges and Universities’ letter — and our true position on non-partisan, academic independence. We operate fully within federal regulations while continuing to uphold our academic mission,” the statement says. “Emory & Henry remains unwavering in our commitment as a non-partisan academic institution dedicated to preparing students for meaningful lives of service, leadership and active citizenship.” A spokesperson for the association said that Fincher is the only signer whose name has been removed thus far.

U.Va. President Jim Ryan, University of Richmond President Kevin F. Hallock, Hollins University President Mary Dana Hinton, Virginia Wesleyan President Scott D. Miller, Randolph College President Sue Ott Rowlands and Roanoke College President Frank Shushok Jr. are among the signers, representing current Virginia university and college presidents. U.Va. Provost Ian Baucom, who is leaving Virginia to become president of Middlebury College in Vermont, and former James Madison University President Jonathan Alger, who now leads American University, are also among the signers.

“I signed this statement on behalf of Hollins to protect the essence of our mission, which is my most important work,” said Hinton, who serves on the AAC&U board of directors. “At its core, this call is about safeguarding the fundamental freedoms that allow higher to thrive: academic freedom, the open exchange of ideas and the pursuit of truth.” 

The American Association of Colleges and Universities posted the public statement, titled “A Call for Constructive Engagement,” on Tuesday. Among the signers are the president of Harvard University and the interim president of Columbia University, schools whose federal funding has been threatened by ‘s administration in recent weeks.

Other colleges and universities, including several public schools in Virginia, have taken actions to protect their federal funding since Trump took office Jan. 20, including dissolving offices dedicated to diversity, equity and inclusion. Virginia Commonwealth University, U.Va. and Virginia Tech are among the state’s public universities whose boards have taken such actions.

Many university-affiliated researchers and administrators have voiced concerns about medical funding from the National Institutes for Health and other federal sources being cut off, arguing that such cuts would curtail efforts to cure and treat numerous diseases.

The AAC&U statement reads in part: “As leaders of America’s colleges, universities, and scholarly societies, we speak with one voice against the unprecedented government overreach and political interference now endangering American higher education. We are open to constructive reform and do not oppose legitimate government oversight. However, we must oppose undue government intrusion in the lives of those who learn, live and work on our campuses. We will always seek effective and fair financial practices, but we must reject the coercive use of public research funding.”

The statement goes on to say, “Our colleges and universities share a commitment to serve as centers of open inquiry where, in their pursuit of truth, faculty, students, and staff are free to exchange ideas and opinions across a full range of viewpoints without fear of retribution, censorship or deportation.”

At some universities, including several in Virginia, international students have had their visas revoked, and in some situations, international students who participated in pro-Palestine protests have been arrested and detained in facilities run by ICE.

According to news reports, at least 35 current college students and recent alumni in Virginia have had their visas revoked, and some have filed lawsuits claiming they were denied due process. Nationally, more than 900 students have had their visas revoked or their legal statuses terminated, according to an Associated Press review.

In addition to presidents with Virginia ties, several Ivy League leaders are among the signers, including Harvard President Alan M. Garber and Claire Shipman, acting president of Columbia.

Harvard University has filed suit to halt a federal freeze on more than $2.2 billion in grants after recently announcing it would defy the Trump administration’s demands to limit activism on campus.

The Trump administration had called in an April 11 letter to Harvard for broad government and leadership reforms at the university and admissions policy changes. Garber soon after said the university would not bend to the demands, and the U.S. government swiftly froze billions of dollars in federal funding.

Previously, New York City’s Columbia University agreed to tighten rules regarding protests on campus after the White House said in March that it had terminated $400 million in grants and contracts mostly related to medical and scientific research.

The Trump administration, meanwhile, argues its campaign against Harvard, Columbia and other schools is a fight against antisemitism.

According to the AAC&U website, the organization continues to accept signatures from current leaders of colleges, universities and scholarly societies.

The Associated Press contributed to this story. 

Tariffs, policy shifts cloud economic outlook, Barkin says

SUMMARY:

  • says U.S. appears healthy but faces policy-driven uncertainty

  • Businesses are cautious, with hiring freezes but few layoffs

  • could pressure margins, lead to price hikes or job cuts

  • Virginia farmers and manufacturers fear impact of retaliatory tariffs

“‘It’s complicated’ might be the tagline for today’s talk,” and CEO Tom Barkin said Tuesday at the Big Dipper Innovation Summit in Richmond.

The U.S. economy is healthy according to current data, but uncertainty about federal policy changes like tariff rates makes predictions difficult, Barkin said during a session titled, “A Conversation with : Macro and Micro Economic Forcers Shaping Our Future.”

“What you’re seeing is an economy that by data is in good shape,” Barkin said, “but the conversation we’re all having is about policy changes and where they may go and how do they affect the economy.”

In terms of data, the unemployment rate is 4.15%, which is historically low, noted Barkin. Last year, the nation’s gross domestic product grew 2.5% (according to the U.S. Commerce Department). While GDP growth is likely to be “flattish” in the of 2025, that’s likely due to firms frontrunning tariffs and bad weather.

Although uncertainty obscures what could come like a fog obscures roads for motorists, “there’s not a lot of uncertainty about the direction of these policies,” Barkin said. “We know they’re going to be more tariffs. We know there’s going to be deregulation. We’re pretty sure there’ll be a tax bill. We know traditional energy is being supported. We know there are constraints being made on immigration. We know government spending is going to be cut. … So, we know the direction, but what people aren’t as clear about is the destination.”

As for whether the U.S. is headed for a recession, Barkin said no day-to-day data, such as initial unemployment claims, the unemployment rate and consumer spending, suggest the country is currently in a recession, but it’s hard to predict, especially since the causes of recent recessions have been unexpected.

“People do worry a lot about recession, but it’s been a long time since we’ve had one that came from natural forces,” he said. “They generally come from something that comes in, winging in from left field. So you can’t ever discount a recession. It’s always out there potentially.”

“I don’t think telling you ‘when something wings in from left field’ is much of a forecast,” he added later in the event. “Another way to put it is that economic forecasting was invented to make weather forecasting look good.”

Amid uncertainty, businesses are currently being defensive but not recessionary, Barkin said. One example of that is businesses instituting hiring freezes but not firing people, contributing to a “low hiring, low firing” labor market.

On the consumer side, “I think there’s lots of reasons to be worried about consumer spending,” including that consumer spending has dropped significantly over the last few months and that consumers are more worried about inflation and worried about losing their jobs, he said.

“But consumer spending is pretty resilient, and right now, consumers have jobs, unemployment’s low, and real wages are still going up, and so consumers have money to spend. Whether that lasts or not, is what we’re going to have to see.”

One worry with tariffs is that many companies might try to pass higher costs through to consumers, which could lead to less demand, which in turn generally means businesses need to lower costs. Meanwhile, if companies don’t pass through costs, lower prices lead to lower margins, which also means lowering costs.

“That’s the risk, is that if these things are not met with consumer demand, then you’re going to have to do something on the cost side, and that’s what would lead to layoffs.”

Economic concerns across Virginia

In Northern Virginia, government contractors are concerned about government spending, and federal workforce reductions are affecting the regional economy.

“Obviously the D.C. metro economy has gone south, and so retail spending numbers in [the] D.C. metro are significantly down,” as people losing their jobs or worried about losing their jobs pull back,” Barkin told reporters after the event.

A lot of farmers he’s spoken with in the Federal Reserve’s Fifth District are concerned about retaliatory tariffs, Barkin said during the event.

“A huge part of the world’s food supply is actually produced here,” he said. “That would include soybeans and corn, but also pigs and chickens. We export an awful lot of to China [and] to Europe, and there’s some concerns, if they put tariffs on us and retaliate, that that would take away markets and lower prices.”

More specifically to Virginia, Barkin said afterward, he’s heard from peanut businesses that their biggest markets are China, Mexico, Canada, Europe and Japan.

How manufacturers will be affected depends on sector, Barkin said. He spoke to a business owner in his region, for example, whose business premise is onshore of pharmaceuticals, putting him in a healthy position.

Other sectors in the U.S. that have been challenged by overseas competition feel tariffs might support them. Steel manufacturing is one example.

“Of course,” Barkin said, “if you’ve put most of your manufacturing base in China, you’re very challenged by that. If you’re a retailer who’s highly dependent on products coming from China, you’re very challenged by that. But it all depends on where you sit.”

In response to an audience question about onshoring, Barkin said, “When I talk to manufacturers, they have a hard time conceiving of moving lower-end manufacturing onshore. … But they can see moving highly technological manufacturing onshore, because we do have the technical talent here, and it’s more capital and less labor, so I think that’s likely to be the places where onshoring would start.”

Additionally, a lot of the factory machinery is manufactured in Germany, Switzerland, Italy and China, and would need to be brought in for technologically intensive manufacturing, Barkin said, “so again, it’s complicated.”

Trump says he has ‘no intention’ of firing Federal Reserve chair

WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump said Tuesday he has no plans to fire Chair , just days after his statement that he would like to terminate the head of the U.S. central bank caused a selloff.

“I have no intention of firing him,” Trump told reporters.

The U.S. president had previously insinuated otherwise as he said he could fire Powell if he wanted to, having been frustrated by the putting a pause on cuts to short-term . Powell has said that Trump’s are creating uncertainty about slower growth and higher inflationary pressures, while the president maintains that inflationary worries are essentially non-existent.

The president maintains that energy and grocery prices are falling, so the Fed should cut its benchmark rates because inflation is no longer a threat to the U.S. , Trump said. His remarks indicated that he still plans to use the bully pulpit to pressure a U.S. central bank that is committed to resisting political pressure as part of its mandate to stabilize prices and maximize employment.

“It’s all coming down,” Trump said. “The only thing that hasn’t come down, but hasn’t gone up much, are interest rates. And we think the Fed should lower the rate. We think that it’s it’s a perfect time to lower the rate. And we’d like to see our chairman be early or on time, as opposed to late. Late’s not good.”