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The bottom of the ballot
Spotlight on 2024 Senate, House races
Kira //September 29, 2024//
Congressional races don’t get the big spotlight in presidential election years, but the bottom of the ballot is still important, as presidents need some legislative cooperation to get things done.
In Virginia, two-term Democratic U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine is seeking reelection against Republican challenger Hung Cao, a retired U.S. Navy captain. All 11 of Virginia’s U.S. House districts, currently held by six Democrats and five Republicans, are being contested as well.
Cao photo courtesy Hung Cao for U.S. Senate
Virginia’s races will play a role in control of the House, where Republicans hold a narrow majority, and the U.S. Senate, which Democrats control with a 51-49 majority.
The Kaine-Cao race will test whether Virginia can still be considered a reliably “blue” state. Except for the 2021 Republican sweep led by Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Democrats have won every statewide election going back to 2013.
In a statement to Virginia Business, Cao cheers “small business owners” who “create jobs and … are the backbone of our economy. We need to end burdensome regulations that squeeze small businesses out of existence.
“Far too often, only the biggest companies can comply with onerous and complicated regulations from government agencies. … Virginia can and should be a leader in industry innovation, from our national defense to energy dominance through clean American coal and small modular nuclear reactors.”
A former Virginia governor, Kaine also supports small businesses in a statement. “We have to do even more,” Kaine wrote. “Employers tell me that that they’re doing OK now but are worried about the future. A major worry is workforce. That’s why I use my position on the Armed Services and Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committees to prioritize career and technical training, work-based immigration reform and affordable child care that frees up skilled adults to fully engage in the workplace.”
In July, Kaine led Cao by 10 points in a poll of Virginia voters by Emerson College for The Hill.
As for the House, state Sen. John McGuire beat U.S. Rep. Bob Good in a GOP primary by fewer than 400 votes in Virginia’s 5th District. Good, chairman of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, displeased party leadership by endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for president over former President Donald Trump. Gloria Tinsley Witt won the less dramatic Democratic primary in June, but the seat is considered “safe Republican” by Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Virginia’s 10th District in Northern Virginia also is an open seat; last fall, three-term incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Jennifer Wexton announced she would not seek reelection after being diagnosed with progressive supranuclear palsy. State Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, a Democrat, faces Republican opponent Mike Clancy. Biden won the district by 19 points in 2020, and it’s considered increasingly out of the reach of Republicans.
Virginia’s other open seat, in the 7th District, is becoming one of the most closely watched House races in the country. Democratic incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who flipped the seat in the 2018 midterms, announced last November she would step down to run for Virginia governor in 2025.
That led to packed primaries on both sides. U.S. Army veteran Derrick Anderson, a Republican, is running against another Army veteran, Democrat Eugene Vindman. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report both rank the race with a slight Democratic lean.
“The 7th is the most interesting and most competitive race in Virginia,” says A.J. Nolte, assistant professor in Regent University’s Robertson School of Government. “I think Republicans managed to get the do-no-harm candidate. Vindman is a first-time candidate. That can work out well for you … but there are always risks, especially with a first-time candidate who until not long ago was not a particularly progressive Democrat.”
A former deputy legal adviser for the National Security Council, Vindman already has something of a national profile, due to the roles he and his twin brother, retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, also with the NSC, played in reporting a phone call between Trump and Ukraine’s president that led to Trump’s first impeachment.
The 2nd District race is the other Virginia House race considered competitive, with first-term Republican U.S. Rep. Jen Kiggans defending the seat against Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal.
