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Powell signals patience on rate cuts despite Trump pressure

Summary

  • Powell says Fed will wait for more data before cutting rates

  • Economy “in a good position,” according to Fed chair

  • Trump continues to push for immediate rate reductions

  • Powell set for two days of testimony before Congress

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — The will continue to wait and see how the economy evolves before deciding whether to reduce its key interest rate, Chair said Tuesday, a stance directly at odds with ‘s calls for immediate cuts.

“For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance,” Powell said in prepared remarks he will deliver Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee.

Powell is facing two days of what could be tough grilling on Capitol Hill, as Trump has repeatedly urged the Fed to reduce . Powell has often received a positive reception before House and Senate committees that oversee the Fed, or at least muted criticism. Powell has also often cited his support in Congress as a bulwark against Trump’s attacks, but that support could wane under the president’s ongoing assaults.

Trump lashed out again early Tuesday, posting on his social media site: “I hope Congress really works this very dumb, hardheaded person, over. We will be paying for his incompetence for many years to come.”

In February, the last time Powell appeared before Congress, Rep. French Hill, the Arkansas Republican who chairs the financial services committee, urged Powell to ensure returned to the Fed’s target of 2%, which typically requires keeping rates elevated.

Powell said in his written testimony that “ increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.”

He said the bump to inflation from tariffs could be temporary, or it could lead to a more persistent bout of inflation.

The Fed’s “obligation,” Powell said, “is … to prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem.”

The Fed’s 19-member interest rate setting committee, led by the chair, decides whether to cut or raise borrowing costs. They typically increase rates to cool the economy to fight or prevent inflation, and lower rates when the economy is weak to boost borrowing and spending.

The Fed’s committee voted unanimously last week to keep its key rate unchanged, though the Fed also released forecasts of future that revealed emerging divisions among the policymakers. Seven projected no rate cuts at all this year, two just one, while 10 forecast at least two reductions.

At a news conference last week, Powell suggested the Fed would monitor how the economy evolves over the summer in response to Trump’s tariffs and other policies before deciding whether to cut rates. His comments suggested a rate reduction wouldn’t occur until September.

Yet two high-profile members of the Fed’s governing board, and , have since suggested the could cut its rate as early as its next meeting in July. Both officials were appointed by Trump during his first term and Waller is often mentioned as a potential replacement for Powell when his term ends next May. Powell was also appointed by Trump in late 2017.

Trump is urging the Fed to cut rates to save the U.S. government money on its interest payments affixed to the vast national debt. Yet the Fed has long resisted considering the government’s financing costs when making interest rate decisions, preferring instead to focus on the health of the economy and inflation.

Waller, in a television interview Friday, said that lowering the government’s borrowing costs is “not our job” and added that it was up to Congress and the White House to reduce the budget deficit.

Trump meanwhile, on social media Tuesday repeated his claim that the European Central Bank has cut its key rate ten times, while the Fed has not cut at all. In fact, in the last 12 months the ECB has reduced its rate eight times and the Fed has done so three times, all late last year.

The Fed’s cuts last year lowered its rate to about 4.3%. Yet since then it has put reductions on pause out of concern that Trump’s tariffs could push up inflation. The president has slapped a 10% duty on all imports, along with an additional 30% levy on goods from China, 50% on steel and aluminum, and 25% on autos.

Yet inflation has steadily cooled this year despite widespread concerns among economists about the impact of tariffs. The consumer price index ticked up just 0.1% from April to May, the government said last week, a sign that price pressures are muted.

Prices for some goods rose last month, but the cost for many services such as air fares and hotels fell, offsetting any tariff impact. Compared with a year ago, prices rose 2.4% in May, up from 2.3% in April.

Federal Reserve’s Bowman says rate cut should be on table in July

Summary

  • Fed Governor supports a potential July rate cut
  • also backed a cut in comments last Friday
  • Both officials were appointed to the Fed by Donald Trump
  • Fed faces internal divisions and criticism from the White House

WASHINGTON (AP) — governor Michelle Bowman on Monday said the should consider cutting its key interest rate as soon as its next meeting in July, underscoring deep divisions among Fed officials as they endure sharp criticism from the White House.

Bowman said that ‘s tariffs have so far not caused the jump in that many economists feared, and any upcoming increase in prices would likely be just a one-time rise.

“It is likely that the impact of tariffs on inflation may take longer, be more delayed, and have a smaller effect than initially expected,” Bowman said in a speech Monday in Prague. “Should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting,” which is scheduled for July 29-30.

Bowman, who was appointed to the Fed’s board of governors by Donald Trump in 2018, is the second high-profile official to express support for a potential July cut in as many days. On Friday, Christopher Waller, also a Trump appointee to the Fed’s board, said in a television interview that the Fed should consider cutting next month.

The blunt calls for by Waller and Bowman differ from Fed Chair ‘s suggestion in a news conference last week that the central bank would monitor the economy over the summer and see how inflation responded to tariffs before deciding whether to reduce borrowing costs.

The comments arrive as Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for not cutting rates, calling the Fed chair a “numbskull” and a “fool” for not doing so, raising concerns about the Fed’s independence from politics. The president claims Fed cuts would reduce the government’s borrowing costs, though the rates the government pays are mostly set by market forces, not the Fed.

Bowman appeared particularly dismissive toward the threat of tariffs, which many economists say could slow growth, particularly if companies absorb the cost of the duties rather than passing them on to consumers. Doing so would cut their profit margins, which would reduce their ability to hire and invest in new business.

“Small and one-off price increases this year should translate only into a small drag on real activity,” Bowman said. “I also expect that less restrictive regulations, lower business taxes, and a more friendly business environment will likely boost supply and largely offset any negative effects on economic activity and prices.”

When the Fed lowers the short-term interest rate it controls, it often reduces borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and business loans. Yet sometimes financial markets keep longer-term rates higher: The Fed cut its rate a full percentage point last year, to about 4.3%, but only declined slighty.

On Friday, Waller told CNBC that with inflation remaining tame and the economy potentially slowing, the Fed should consider a rate cut next month. He pointed to rising unemployment among recent college graduates as a sign of possible weakening in the economy, and said it was better to cut before the labor market noticeably worsened.

“I’m all in favor of saying maybe we should start thinking about cutting the policy rate at the next meeting, because we don’t want to wait until the job market tanks before we start cutting,” Waller said.

Still, at last week’s Fed meeting, seven of the 19 officials who participate in the central bank’s interest-rate decisions supported keeping rates unchanged for the rest of this year, and two penciled in just one cut.

Inflation has steadily cooled this year despite widespread concerns among economists that Trump’s tariffs would boost prices. The consumer price index ticked up just 0.1% from April to May, the government said last week, a sign that price pressures are muted. Prices for some goods rose last month, but the cost for many services such as air fares and hotels fell, offsetting any tariff impact.

Compared with a year ago, prices rose 2.4% in May, up from 2.3% in April.

Trump has slapped a 10% duty on all imports, along with an additional 30% levy on goods from China, 50% on steel and aluminum, and 25% on autos.

Still, many economists say it is likely that tariffs could push inflation higher in the coming months. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested at a news conference last week that the central bank wants to closely monitor how inflation evolves over the next few months before deciding whether to cut rates.

Also Friday, Mary Daly, president of the Fed’s San Francisco branch, said on CNBC that she looked “more to the fall” as an appropriate time to cut rates.

Virginia’s first Buc-ee’s opens soon — here’s what to know


SUMMARY:

  • Virginia’s first Buc-ee’s opens June 30 at 6 a.m. in
  • The store spans 74,000 square feet and has 120 fuel stations
  • It’s creating more than 200 local jobs, with competitive pay and benefits

Wake up the kids and load up the car — Virginia is about to experience Buc-eesmania! Here’s what you need to know:

What’s happening?
Virginia’s first Buc-ee’s will open Monday, June 30, with doors opening bright and early at 6 a.m. Fans from as far as Alabama and Maine have posted on social media about plans to visit the new mega-travel center on opening day. (Take note: There’s a rumor no one will be allowed in the parking lot before 4 a.m.)

A display of Buc-ee's beaver dolls fills the bed of a pickup truck in a Buc-ee's store in Johnstown, Colorado. AP Photo by David Zalubowski
A display of Buc-ee’s beaver dolls fills the bed of a pickup truck in a Buc-ee’s store in Johnstown, Colorado. AP Photo by David Zalubowski

Where is Virginia’s first ?
In multiple Facebook groups devoted to Virginia’s and all things Buc-ee’s, members get prickly about folks referring to the newest location of the super-sized travel center chain as the Harrisonburg Buc-ee’s. It’s in Mount Crawford, thank you very much. Calling it the Buc-ee’s is also acceptable. The store is located at Exit 240 off Interstate 81.

Will there be other locations?
Yes, at least two other locations are in the works: one in New Kent County east of Richmond, at Exit 211 off Interstate 64, expected to open in 2027; and another in Stafford County, near Exit 140 off Interstate 95 that is still moving through zoning approvals.

Why the hubbub?
Asking that is sort of the equivalent of asking those afflicted with Beatlemania to put words to what they found compelling about John, Paul, George and Ringo back in 1964.

Buc-ee’s devotees frequently mention the mega-travel center chain’s clean restrooms, the cuteness of the Buc-ee’s mascot (a nod to Buc-ee’s founder Arch Aplin III’s childhood nickname of “Beaver”) and the delicious food — particularly Buc-ee’s brisket and beaver nuggets, which include 0% beaver and are instead a puffed corn snack. Shaq has said it’s one of his favorite stores.

Virginia’s first Buc-ee’s will occupy 74,000 square feet and offer 120 fueling positions.

Founded in 1982, Buc-ee’s started out as a phenomenon in Texas (where everything is bigger) until 2019 when the chain opened its first store outside the Lone Star State in Alabama. Counting the upcoming Rockingham County location, Buc-ee’s operates 53 stores across the United States. The chain has opened travel centers in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Missouri, Colorado and Mississippi.

The Rockingham County Buc-ee’s is creating more than 200 jobs for the region, according to the company. The pay is “well above minimum wage,” and workers get benefits, including three weeks of paid vacation and a 6% matching 401(k).

Buc-ee's co-founder and CEO Arch “Beaver” Aplin III (center left) and Gov. Glenn Youngkin (center right) speak at the groundbreaking for Buc-ee's Rockingham County location on Jan. 30, 2024. Official Photo by Christian Martinez, Office of Governor Glenn Youngkin
Buc-ee’s co-founder and CEO Arch “Beaver” Aplin III (center left) and Gov. Glenn Youngkin (center right) speak at the groundbreaking for Buc-ee’s Rockingham County location on Jan. 30, 2024. Official Photo by Christian Martinez, Office of Governor Glenn Youngkin

Will there be a line of people waiting to get in on opening day?
Maybe.

If so, Beth Woodson from Covington will likely be among them. She plans to leave at 1 a.m. on June 30 to visit Virginia’s new Buc-ee’s with her friend Mindy Selleck and their 15-year-old daughters, who are also passionate Buc-ee’s devotees.

The quartet first visited a Buc-ee’s two summers ago while on vacation in Sevierville, Tennessee. Woodson, who also likes to shop at Cracker Barrel, enjoys browsing Buc-ee’s merchandise, which runs the gamut from beaver-bedecked swimsuits and toys to home décor items.

“You can just get a little bit of everything,” said Woodson, who runs a marketing business.

The 46-year-old is also a fan of the brisket at Buc-ee’s. She recently saw a photo of a Buc-ee’s billboard that read, “Risk it for the brisket,” and she’d like to own a T-shirt with the slogan.

Basically, everybody who knows Woodson knows not to pester her on June 30.

“I’ve rescheduled all my client meetings,” Woodson said. “I’ve completely blocked off my day.”

How can I visit before June 30?
Be a first responder. From 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. on Friday, June 27, police, firefighters and EMTs can enjoy free food and drink at the Mount Crawford Buc-ee’s. First responders can RSVP in advance by calling (979) 236-3669.

What else should I know?
Drivers of 18-wheelers aren’t allowed to park at Buc-ee’s. This has left a sour taste in the mouths of some truck drivers, but others say it makes sense because the travel center’s parking lots are often packed.

RVers are welcome at Buc-ee’s, but they’re not allowed to spend the night.

A ribbon-cutting will be held at the new location at 10 a.m. June 30. Officials expected to attend include members of the Rockingham County Board of Supervisors and County Administrator Casey Armstrong.

With its stock in sharp decline, Trump’s media company will buy $400 million of its own shares

NEW YORK (AP) — ‘s media company plans to buy back up to $400 million of its stock, which have lost 46% of their value this year.

and Technology Group, which operates the media platform, said Monday that the acquisition will improve its financial flexibility. It will retire the shares after they are purchased, meaning these particular shares can’t be reissued.

Companies can drive their stock higher by acquiring or removing the number of company shares outstanding. Trump is the largest stakeholder in Trump Media, with about 114 million shares.

Shares of Trump Media rose just over 2% Monday. But the shares appeared to peak about a month after the company went public in late March. Shares have been on a steady, downward trajectory since.

The company said early this year that it lost $400.9 million in 2024 and its annual revenue declined 12% to $3.6 million.

After winning the U.S. presidential election in November, Trump transferred all of his shares in the company — worth around $4 billion on paper — as a gift to the Donald J. . Trump’s shares amounted to more than half of the company’s stock.

The company said Monday that it will fund the buyback separately from its Bitcoin treasury strategy. Under that plan, institutional investors will buy $2.5 billion in the company’s stock with the proceeds going to build up a bitcoin reserve.

Trump Media joins other companies with similar cryptocurrency strategies, including cloud and mobile software developer , which is building a reserve containing billions worth of bitcoin.

Raft acquires N3bula Systems for undisclosed amount

McLean-based defense technology company announced last week it has acquired weapons technology developer as part of an effort to expand and data services for military systems.

The terms of the deal were not disclosed. N3bula Systems, founded in 2020 and headquartered in Colorado Springs, is known for developing defense infrastructure that connects sensors, shooters and weapons systems across services and domains.

Raft says the acquisition will create a unified and data backbone “that transforms fragmented military systems into a seamless, machine-speed operational network.” The company says the partnership will enable faster decision making for military systems, due autonomous data fusion.

Raft Founder and CEO Shubhi Mishra described N3bula Systems as “one of the most impactful teams in defense technology.”

“We embed directly with warfighters as trusted edge nodes, scale proven AI across mission-critical operations, and deliver real solutions to real battlefield problems — faster than established players,” Mishra said in a statement. “This signals a fundamental shift toward edge-native defense innovation.”

Raft says the acquisition will support ‘s administration’s defense priorities, including the development of a proposed nationwide “Golden Dome” missile defense system.

“The decision came down to mission alignment and execution capability,” said Ryan Mize, founder and president of N3bula Systems, in a statement. “Raft demonstrates consistent delivery of what warfighters actually ask for. As a new prime, they represent the future of defense contracting — impact over bureaucracy, and we want to be part of that.”

The acquisition will increase Raft’s number of employees from more than 350 to almost 400. This is Raft’s first acquisition since receiving a $60 million investment from Washington Harbour Partners in May 2024.

Last week, Mishra was one of five Virginia business leaders who won Ernst & Young’s Mid-Atlantic Entrepreneur of the Year Award for 2025.

Lockheed Martin to cut jobs at Greenville F-16 site

Summary

  •  to cut jobs after Air Force contract ends
  • F-16 sustainment contract awarded in 2020 will not be renewed
  • Greenville site continues to produce F-16s for U.S. allies
  • More than 100 next-gen F-16s remain in production backlog

Lockheed Martin is reducing its Greenville workforce following a U.S. Air Force decision not to extend its sustainment contract with the company.

The cuts could mean a reduction of as many as 180 jobs or 10% of the workforce, according to reports.

The Lockheed Martin site in Greenville’s South Carolina Technology & Aviation Center is better known now as the place where the company builds new F-16 fighter jets, but for decades was a sustainment center where aircraft were serviced and maintained.

That role was bolstered in December 2020 when the Air Force awarded Lockheed Martin the $900 million F-16 Continental United State (CONUS) Depot contract to provide “depot level maintenance and modernization support.” At the time the Air Force said it was the first U.S. based F-16 industry depot; two others were based in Europe and the Pacific.

It’s the end of that contract that will lead to layoffs in Greenville.

Members of the Slovakian military pose in front of the two-seater F-16 purchased by the NATO country and ceremonially delivered on Feb. 29, 2024. (Photo/Ross Norton)

Lockheed Martin said in a statement: “As a result of the Air Force’s decision not to extend the F-16 CONUS Depot contract, and to meet our customers’ needs for affordability in a cost-competitive environment, we made the difficult decision to conduct a limited reduction in force at our Greenville site. This decision was made with a great deal of consideration and careful evaluation, and we’re committed to supporting affected employees with outplacement services and career counseling.”

Customers for the new F-16s coming off the production line today do not include any branch of the U.S. military. However, even though the American military has moved on to different jets, the F-16 remains a part of the American fleet, making up 45% of the Air Force inventory when the contract was entered five years ago. The new customers are nations with military objectives that align with those of the United States, company and government officials have said since the first Greenville-made F-16 was made for the Kingdom of Bahrain and delivered in a ceremony at the site in March 2023.

“Lockheed Martin’s Greenville facility remains a cornerstone of South Carolina’s defense industry and a critical asset to our national security,” U.S. Rep. William Timmons, R-S.C., said in a statement.  “While the Air Force’s decision not to extend a specific contract will result in a workforce adjustment, the long-term outlook for this site is strong.”

“With over 100 next generation F-16s currently in the production backlog for U.S. allies and continued global demand, Greenville is well-positioned for future growth,” Timmons said in the statement. “Lockheed Martin has reaffirmed its commitment to the region, and I will continue working with them and local leaders to ensure the Upstate remains a leader in defense innovation and job creation.”

The F-16 is currently operated by 27 countries, with six countries selecting the F-16 Block 70/72 version made in Greenville for their fleets.

Compass sues Zillow over off-market listings ban

Real estate brokerage company has filed a lawsuit against Zillow over its policy to ban private .

In a filing with the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, Compass claims that “Zillow has sought to rely on anticompetitive tactics to protect its monopoly and revenues in violation of the laws.”

Compass says that Zillow has implemented an exclusionary policy that says if a home seller and their real estate agent market their property off Zillow for more than one day, that Zillow and its allies, and , will ban that home from being listed on their search platforms.

“The Zillow Ban seeks to ensure that all home listings in this country are steered on to its dominant search platform so Zillow can monetize each home listing and protect its monopoly,” Compass said in the lawsuit.

Compass alleges that the ‘Zillow Ban’ was enacted to prevent rivals from competing against it and reduces homeowner choice.

“In a free and competitive market, competitors’ products and strategies should rise and fall on merit—not the whims of a monopolist gatekeeper like Zillow,” Compass said.

Compass wants an injunction that would prohibit Zillow from implementing and enforcing its ‘Zillow Ban’ and implementing and enforcing similar policies. The company also wants a trial by jury and an unspecified amount in damages.

A Zillow spokesperson said in a statement on Monday that the company believes the claims in the lawsuit are unfounded and that it will vigorously defend against them.

“Our focus remains on creating a level playing field that serves the best interests of everyone in the home buying and selling journey,” the spokesperson said.

The is always competitive, but has become more fierce of late. Last month the reported that sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell in April, as elevated and rising prices discouraged prospective homebuyers during what’s traditionally the busiest time of the year for the housing market.

dropped 0.5% in April, from March, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. The sales decline marked the slowest sales pace for the month of April going back to 2009 in the wake of the U.S. housing crisis. March’s sales pace was also the slowest for that month going back to 2009.

Sales of existing homes barely moved in May, with existing up 0.8% last month from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million units, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. Stubbornly high mortgage rates and rising prices made homebuying less affordable even as the inventory of properties on the market continued to increase.

There’s also been the issue of more sellers than homebuyers, with potential buyers skittish over high prices and mortgage rates. As of April, the U.S. housing market had nearly 34% more sellers than buyers shopping for a home, according to an analysis by Redfin.

Aside from April 2020, when the pandemic brought the economy and home sales activity to a standstill, there haven’t been this few buyers in the market for a home before, based on records that date back to 201

JBG Smith acquires Tysons Dulles Plaza for $42.3M

Bethesda, Maryland-based developer announced last week that it has acquired Dulles Plaza — a 15-acre office campus in Tysons that houses three buildings.

The financial terms of the acquisition were not disclosed. But tax records show that Tysons Dulles Holdings, which has a principal office that shares the same address as JBG Smith’s corporate headquarters, purchased the properties for $42.3 million on May 5.

The campus, which has approximately 500,000 square feet of offices and 1,553 parking spaces, is walkable to the Silver Line’s Spring Hill Metro station and is located at 1410, 1420 and 1430 Spring Hill Road.

JBG Smith plans to redevelop one of the three office buildings for residential use. The other two buildings will be upgraded and modernized but will be preserved for office use.

The company declined to provide additional details about the , including which of the three office buildings would become residential or the timeline of development.

“Notwithstanding regional economic headwinds and the negative impact of remote work on the office sector, we see distress leading to extremely attractive office investment opportunities for the first time in more than a decade,” George Xanders, chief investment officer at JBG Smith, said in a statement. “We are actively exploring additional office investments, similar to , especially where we can apply our proven mixed-used redevelopment expertise.”

Last year, JBG Smith began construction on a $40 million renovation project for an 11-floor commercial building in Arlington County slated for completion in 2026. The property is located in Arlington’s National Landing neighborhood, where Amazon.com’s HQ2 is based.

In a statement, JBG Smith Chief Strategy Officer Evan Regan-Levine said the company’s success in National Landing will serve as a “blueprint” for redeveloping underperforming assets in the region.

“In National Landing we were able to reduce the stock of operating office buildings and transform many of them into new residential and offerings — aligning with lower levels of net demand for office — while also improving the desirability of the neighborhood,” Regan-Levine said. “We see the same opportunity at Tysons Dulles Plaza.”

May home sales barely move as high mortgage rates, prices, weigh on housing market

SUMMARY:

  • rose 0.8% in May from April
  • Annualized sales reached 4.03 million units
  • Median price hit $422,800, a record for May
  • Sales were 0.7% lower compared to May 2023

NEW YORK (AP) — Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes edged higher in May, as stubbornly high  and rising prices made homebuying less affordable even as the inventory of properties on the market continued to increase.

Existing rose 0.8% last month from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million units, the said Monday.

Sales fell 0.7% compared with May last year. The latest home sales fell topped the 3.95 million pace economists were expecting, according to FactSet.

“The sluggish sales activity one can attribute essentially to affordability,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

Home prices increased on an annual basis for the 23rd consecutive month, although the rate of growth continued to slow. The national median sales price rose 1.3% in May from a year earlier to $422,800, an all-time high for the month of May.

The U.S. has been in a slump since early 2022, when mortgage rates began to climb from pandemic-era lows. Home sales fell last year to their lowest level in nearly 30 years.

The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has remained relatively close to its high so far this year of just above 7%, which it set in mid-January, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. The low point for this year arrived five weeks ago, when the average rate briefly dropped to 6.62%. Last week, it averaged 6.81%.

Homes purchased last month likely went under contract in April and May, when the average rate on a 30-year mortgage ranged from 6.62% to 6.89%.

High mortgage rates, which can add hundreds of dollars a month in costs for borrowers, remain a key affordability hurdle for many would-be homebuyers. Years of soaring home prices have helped put homeownership out of reach. The median U.S. home sales price is up 52% since May 2019, while the U.S. median annual income has risen 30% in the same period, Yun noted.

While price growth has slowed, elevated mortgage rates and rising prices are forcing prospective homebuyers to save more for a down payment. In May, buyers needed an annual income of $91,960 to afford a typical home with a 20% down payment, or nearly 87% more than in May 2019, according to Realtor.com.

Home shoppers who can afford to buy at current mortgage rates benefited from a wider selection of properties on the market.

There were 1.54 million unsold homes at the end of last month, a 6.2% increase from April, and 20.3% higher than May last year, NAR said. That’s still well below the roughly 2 million homes for sale that was typical before the pandemic, however.

May’s month-end inventory translates to a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 4.4-month pace at the end of April and 3.8 months in May last year. Traditionally, a 5- to 6-month supply is considered a balanced market between buyers and sellers.

Oil prices flip-flop and US stocks drift as Wall Street waits for Iran’s reaction to US strikes

The United States’ bunker-busting entry into Israel’s war with Iran is having only a modest effect on the price of oil and stock markets worldwide Monday, at least for now. The hope is that Iran won’t retaliate in a way that disrupts the global flow of crude, which would hurt economies worldwide but also its own.

The was edging down by 0.1% in early trading, coming off a week where stock prices had jumped up and down on worries about the conflict potentially escalating. The Industrial Average was down 37 points, or 0.1%, as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern time, and the composite was 0.4% lower.

The price of oil did jump 4% shortly after trading began on Sunday night, but it quickly pared back as the focus shifted from what the U.S. military did to how Iran would react.

By Monday morning, the price of a benchmark barrel of U.S. oil was up 0.4% at $74.16 after briefly dipping to a loss. Brent crude, the international standard, edged up by 0.2% to $77.17 per barrel. They still remain higher than they were before the fighting began a little more than a week ago, when a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude was close to $68.

The fear is that a worsening war could squeeze the world’s supply of oil, which would pump up prices for it, gasoline and other products refined from crude. Not only is Iran a major producer of crude, it could also try to block access to the Strait of Hormuz off its coast. Much of the world’s oil passes through the strait each day on ships.

The calming in the oil market came as several analysts said Iran would likely refrain from closing the waterway. Iran itself uses the strait to move its own crude, mostly to China, and it needs the revenue made from such sales of oil.

“It’s a scorched earth possibility, a Sherman-burning-Atlanta move,” said Tom Kloza, chief market analyst at Turner Mason & Co. “It’s not probable.”

Neil Newman, managing director of Atris Advisory Japan, said hope remains that the Israel-Iran war could be a short conflict, with the thinking being “the one big hit by the Americans will be effective and then we’ll get back to sort of business as usual, in which case there is no need for an immediate, panicky type of reaction.”

Speaking to Fox News on Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a disruption to traffic through the strait by Iran would be “economic suicide” and would elicit a U.S. response.

When asked about that at a routine briefing in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters that “China is willing to strengthen communication with Iran and relevant parties to continue playing a constructive role in promoting de-escalation” of the conflict.

“The Persian Gulf and its adjacent waters are important international channels for cargo and energy trade. Maintaining security and stability in this region serves the common interests of the international community,” he said.

Of course, not everyone is sure about Iran’s next move.

Andy Lipow, a Houston analyst covering oil markets for 45 years, said countries are not always rational actors and that he wouldn’t be surprised if Tehran lashed out for political or emotional reasons.

“If the Strait of Hormuz was completely shut down, would rise to $120 to $130 a barrel,” said Lipow, predicting that that would translate to about $4.50 a gallon at the pump and hurt consumers in other ways.

“It would mean higher prices for all those goods transported by truck, and it would be more difficult for the Fed to lower .”

The has been hesitant to lower interest rates, and it’s been on hold this year after cutting at the end of last year, because it’s waiting to see how much ‘s tariffs will hurt the economy and raise .

Inflation has remained relatively tame recently, and it’s near the Fed’s target of 2%. A continued rise in oil and gasoline prices would put upward pressure on inflation. That in turn could keep the Fed on hold because cuts to rates can fan inflation higher, along with giving the economy a boost.

In the bond market, Treasury yields eased a little as hopes continue that the Fed may cut interest rates later this year.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.34% from 4.38% late Friday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, fell more modestly to 3.89% from 3.90%.

In stock markets abroad, indexes fell modestly across Europe after finishing mixed in Asia. France’s CAC 40 fell 1%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.7% for two of the world’s bigger moves.