NoVa execs pessimistic about national economy, survey finds

The majority of Northern Virginia executives are pessimistic about the national economy over the next six months, according to the first quarter 2026 Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce and Pinkston Business Leader Survey released Tuesday.

Of the 210 executives and business owners who participated in the survey conducted March 23 through March 30, 56% are very or somewhat pessimistic about the national economy over the next six months. In the survey released October 2025, that number was 44%.

“It’s no surprise that business sentiment is declining as our economy continues to be rattled by shifting federal and state policy signals,” NVC CEO Julie Coons said in a statement. “This quarter’s survey results serve as a wake-up call.”

Half of the survey participants said legislators and policymakers in Richmond don’t understand their business operations.

When asked what General Assembly legislation recently considered caused the most concern related to their company’s ability to grow, just under half (49%) picked the expansion of sales tax to services. Other top concerns were the repeal of right-to-work (27%), a tax bracket for high-earning individuals (18%), an increase to the minimum wage (17%) and paid family and medical leave (13%).  Seven percent cited concern about the repeal of the data center retail sales and use tax exemption.

More than 30% of executives surveyed want Virginia’s governor and lawmakers to reduce taxes. Other top priorities are housing affordability (27%) and maintaining right-to-work (20%).

Of the participants, 32% expect Northern Virginia’s economy to decline over the next six months, while 34% believe it will remain the same and another 34% believe that it will grow.

“When 66% of executives expect our economy to remain stagnant or even decline, and half of our leaders feel Richmond doesn’t understand how their businesses actually operate, we have a serious disconnect,” Coons said in a statement. “Even when harmful proposals like the failed tax on services, wealth tax and right-to-work repeal are defeated, the mere threat creates lingering uncertainty.”

The news wasn’t all bad. Business leaders seem to feel more confident about their companies’ futures. Sixty-seven percent of participants reported being optimistic about their company’s performance over the next six months, while 21% are neither optimistic nor pessimistic and 12% are somewhat or very pessimistic.

Of the participants, 38% expect their companies’ capital spending to remain the same over the next six months, while 32% expect it to increase slightly. Less than 10% expect capital spending to increase significantly.

More than half of the leaders surveyed said they expect their companies’ hiring plans will stay about the same over the next six months. Thirty percent plan to increase hiring. Less than 10% plan to cut their headcount.

When asked if they are experiencing more or less difficulty in finding qualified talent to hire compared with a year ago, 60% of business leaders said they’re experiencing about the same difficulty. Twenty-four percent are experiencing more difficulty.

Regarding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, 58% of those surveyed said it has had no impact on their companies. More than 30% said tariff policies caused a decline in their company’s business, and 7% have seen growth because of the trade negotiation process.

Survey participants were also asked their top policy priorities for local officials. For 43% of those asked, the answer was reducing taxes. Affordable housing (34%), transportation repair and expansion (20%) and reducing regulation (19%) were other top priorities.

Half of the participants answered that making Northern Virginia a more affordable place to live, work and raise a family would have the most positive impact on their companies.

Participants in the survey have business operations in Northern Virginia and work in industries such as government contracting, aerospace and defense, financial services, technology, professional services, retail and real estate. About 35% of the business leaders surveyed are located in Fairfax County or the city of Fairfax. The other approximately 65% are distributed as follows: Fifteen percent in Loudoun County, 15% in Prince William County or the city of Manassas, 14% in Alexandria, 7% in Falls Church, 7% in Arlington County and 6% in other locations.

Of the respondents, 11% represented companies with $100 million or more in annual revenue. Nine percent represented companies with between $10 million and $100 million in annual revenue, and 72% represented companies with less than $10 million in annual revenue. Eight percent of respondents declined to specify.

Eight local chambers of commerce in Northern Virginia partnered with NVC on the survey, which was conducted by Falls Church-based Pinkston, a branding, marketing and communications firm.

Northern Virginia has a gross domestic product of $321 billion, which is about 42% of the GDP of the commonwealth and larger than that of 24 other states, according to NVC.