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Northern Virginia home listings surged 63% in March over 2024


SUMMARY:

  • Active in Northern Virginia rose 63.6% in March
  • may be boosting region’s home sales
  • Northern Virginia market still tight
  • Median home price reached $755,625, up 3.5% from March 2024

In what the describes as a “striking divergence from national patterns,” Northern Virginia saw a 63.6% year-over-year increase in active monthly listings for March.

Nationally, total rose 19.8% in March over the same month in 2024, according to the National Association of Realtors.

“It’s certainly an uptick, and it’s an uptick that I think you almost have to say has to be attributable in some part to the labor turmoil in the federal sector and in contractors because of these cutbacks and announced job ,” said Terry Clower, professor of public policy at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government.

Since returned to the White House in January, tens of thousands of federal employees have been fired or put on leave as part of a measure to cut federal spending. Trump has also cut federal contracts, which has led to layoffs in the government contracting industry.

No firm data yet exists on how many Northern Virginia residents have lost their federal jobs.

At least 175,000 federal workers lived in the region as of 2023, according to data from the Northern Virginia Regional Commission. And the for Northern Virginia in March was 3.2%, up from 2.8% in January.

Putting your home on the market after losing a job or after witnessing your neighbors lose their jobs, Clower said, is a “very rational response.”

On the other hand, Matthew Cypher, director of the Steers Center for Global Real Estate at Georgetown’s McDonough School of Business, cautioned Friday that an increase in active listings for one month isn’t enough data to declare the sky is falling for Northern Virginia’s real estate market.

“Some might suggest that we’ve needed some churn like this to give other people an opportunity to buy into the market,” he said.

In March, there were 1,980 homes for sale in Northern Virginia, according to data released last week. There were 1,520 active listings in the region in February.

NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin described the increase in active listings as “breathing room” in an April 24 statement about the data.

“Rising inventory means buyers have more options, and sellers can expect more informed, competitive offers,” he stated. “This shift represents a healthier, more sustainable market for the long term.”

For Northern Virginia, March’s monthly supply of inventory (MSI) — a measure of how many months homes would remain on the market if no new inventory were added  — increased to 1.45 months, a 58% increase over the previous year and a 25% increase over February.

Even with the jump in inventory, Clower pointed out, Northern Virginia still has a tight real estate market. “We are still way below … the level of inventory for for-sale homes … 10 years ago,” he said.

Other real estate numbers

March saw 1,202 home sales closed in Northern Virginia, a 0.9% year-over-year increase. New pending sales increased 5.5% from March 2024 to 1,695 units.

“There hasn’t been much of a change in actual sales activity, say, versus the same month of last year, which actually then makes the escalation in listings look even more dramatic,” Clower said. “What you would normally see in this very tight market is if more homes came on to the market, there would be almost an equal number of sales.”

Homes spent an average of 18 days on the market last month, a 12.5% increase over the same period last year.

The median sale price last month in Northern Virginia was $755,625, up 3.5% compared with March 2024.

“Buyers are still willing to pay a premium for homes in our area,” Sherry Rahnama, a NVAR board member, said in a statement.

NVAR reports home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of , Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.

Wall Street extends its gains to a 9th straight day, reclaiming losses since tariff escalation

SUMMARY:

  • Wall Street hits 9-day winning streak, longest since 2004
  • Strong April job growth boosts market confidence
  • Tech and financial lead broad market gains
  • U.S.-China tensions ease amid tariff delays

Wall Street extended its gains to a ninth straight day Friday, marking the stock market’s longest winning streak since 2004 and reclaiming the ground it lost since escalated his trade war in early April.

The rally was spurred by a better-than-expected report on the U.S. job market and resurgent hope for a ratcheting down in the U.S. trade showdown with China.

The climbed 1.5%. The Industrial Average added 1.4%, and the Nasdaq composite rose 1.5%.

The gains were broad. Roughly 90% of stocks and every sector in the S&P 500 advanced. Technology stocks were among the companies doing the heaviest lifting. Microsoft rose 2.3% and Nvidia rose 2.5%. Apple, however, fell 3.7% after the iPhone maker estimated that will cost it $900 million.

Banks and other financial companies also made solid gains. JPMorgan Chase rose 2.3% and Visa closed 1.5% higher.

Employers added 177,000 jobs in April. That marks a slowdown in hiring from March, but it was solidly better than economists anticipated. However, the latest job figures don’t yet reflect the effects on the of President Donald Trump’s across-the-board tariffs against America’s trading partners. Many of the more severe tariffs that were supposed to go into effect in April were delayed by three months, with the notable exception of tariffs against China.

“We’ve already seen how will react if the administration moves forward with their initial tariff plan, so unless they take a different tack in July when the 90-day pause expires, we will see market action similar to the first week of April,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management.

The S&P 500 slumped 9.1% during the first week of April as Trump announced a major escalation of his trade war with more tariffs. The market has now clawed back its losses since then, helped by a string of resilient earnings reports from U.S. companies, hopes for de-escalation of trade tensions with China and expectations that the will still be able to cut rates a few times this year.

The benchmark index is still down 3.3% so far this year, and 7.4% below the record it reached in February.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 82.53 points to 5,686.67. The Dow gained 564.47 points to 41,317.43, and the Nasdaq added 266.99 points to 17,977.73.

The job market is being closely watched for signs of stress amid trade war tensions. Strong employment has helped fuel solid consumer spending and economic growth over the last few years. Economists are now worried about the impact that taxes on imports will have on consumers and businesses, especially about how higher costs will hurt hiring and spending.

The economy is already showing signs of strain. The shrank at a 0.3% annual pace during the first quarter of the year. It was slowed by a surge in imports as businesses tried to get ahead of Trump’s tariffs.

The current round of tariffs and the on-again-off-again nature of Trump’s policy has overshadowed planning for businesses and households. Companies have been cutting and withdrawing financial forecasts because of the uncertainty over how much tariffs will cost them and how much they will squeeze consumers and sap spending.

Hopes remain that Trump will roll back some of his tariffs after negotiating trade deals with other countries. China has been a key target, with tariffs of 145%. Its Commerce Ministry said Beijing is evaluating overtures from the U.S. regarding the tariffs.

Investors had a relatively quiet day of earnings reports following a busy week. Exxon Mobil rose 0.4%, recovering from an early slide, after reporting its lowest first-quarter profit in years. Rival Chevron rose 1.6% after it also reported its smallest first-quarter profit in years.

Falling crude oil prices have weighed on the sector. Crude oil prices in the U.S. are down about 17% for the year. They fell below $60 per barrel this week, which is a level at which many producers can no longer turn a profit.

Block slumped 20.4% after reporting a sharp drop in first-quarter profit that fell short of analysts’ forecasts. The financial technology company behind Cash App cited a pullback in consumer spending on travel and other discretionary items as a key reason for the results.

Treasury yields rose in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.31% from 4.22% late Thursday.

I voted for Trump. His tariff exclusions don’t reflect conservative strength


SUMMARY:

  • In an op-ed, an business founder and managing partner says ‘s are causing economic uncertainty and industry decline
  • Protectionism in the 1920s and early 1930s under President Hoover turned a recession into the Great Depression
  • argues that Trump’s tariffs also may keep the nation from addressing growing national debt
  • He calls for Trump to focus on innovation and investment initiatives the president campaigned on

It was a sweltering day both in temperature and temperament when a businessman president signed a tariff bill that Henry Ford famously called “economic stupidity.” When President Herbert Hoover enacted what would become the country’s last major experiment with protectionism, in the form of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930, Ford and over a thousand economists warned against crafting economic policy out of fear rather than strength.

Fast forward to today. Millions of Americans enthusiastically voted for President Donald Trump, including myself, because he promised to restore American strength by unleashing innovation and industry to lead the world. That vision remains compelling. But tariffs do not project strength; they signal decline. This week’s GDP first quarter contraction announcement is a relevant example, as businesses hold on to capital amid trade uncertainty.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce just asked the White House for a “tariff exclusion process” in order to prevent a recession. They asked to automatically lift tariffs on all small business importers and on all products that “cannot be produced in the U.S.” or are not domestically available.

The Jones Act of 1920 is a clear example of how protectionism stifles growth. Enacted to preserve national security by supporting a domestic shipbuilding base, it now functions as a drag on economic dynamism. The law drives up transportation costs by requiring that goods moved between U.S. ports be carried on American-built, -owned, and -crewed ships, especially in non-contiguous states and territories like Puerto Rico, Hawaii and Alaska. U.S.-built vessels cost up to five times more than foreign-built ships, making domestic shipbuilding globally uncompetitive.

A 2020 Cato Institute analysis found that the U.S. accounts for less than 1% of global commercial shipbuilding. Instead of catalyzing innovation, the Jones Act locks in inefficiency, shrinks market competition, and raises costs across entire supply chains. This isn’t just a protectionist relic; it’s a lasting threat to our and sovereignty.

Republicans have long opposed tariffs not out of blind loyalty to free-market doctrine but because they’ve seen firsthand damage from the Jones Act and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930. It didn’t protect workers, it punished them. It shattered supply chains, destroyed exports and helped turn a recession into a depression.

The Plymouth Cordage Company, once the world’s largest rope manufacturer, serves as a cautionary tale. Founded in 1824, it grew into a major employer and industrial innovator. But, its margins collapsed when Smoot-Hawley imposed tariffs on imported fibers like sisal and manila. The company struggled to adapt and was eventually acquired in the 1950s. The broader industry shrank by half in the five years following Smoot-Hawley.

Free innovation and trade have long been the engine of American prosperity. Economist Robert Solow estimated that technological progress accounts for over 80% of long-term U.S. per capita income growth. Entirely new industries from cloud computing to biotech have emerged from this shift. The U.S. leads the world in service exports, with a growing surplus driven by intellectual property, finance, and technology. Despite comprising less than 5% of the world’s population, Americans generate over 20% of global income. Our strength comes not from isolation but from integration with the global economy and a relentless capacity to innovate.

The industrial re-shoring President Trump rightly champions doesn’t require tariff-based affirmative action or a return to outdated models. It requires the same bold innovation we saw in Operation Warp Speed. Or the market-driven energy revolution of the 1970s, when the U.S. responded to crisis not by retreating but by unlocking domestic capacity. In 1977, the U.S. imported 46.5% of its petroleum. Today, we are net energy exporters. That’s what American strength looks like.

Tariffs don’t just harm industry; they jeopardize the nation’s ability to address its most urgent economic challenge: the federal deficit.

For 70 years, the U.S. has enjoyed extraordinary fiscal privilege as issuer of the world’s reserve currency. That status created what was effectively a limitless credit card. It enabled the nation to fight two wars while cutting taxes and bailing out the economy during the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 without triggering a collapse in investor confidence. But now, the limits of that privilege are being tested.

Debt has surpassed $36 trillion, and interest payments are projected to soon exceed the entire defense budget. Left unaddressed and compounded by demographic shifts, this trend will undermine the country’s ability to respond to the next crisis.

Businesses aren’t revived from default by cost-cutting alone. You have to innovate and grow. The same principle applies nationally. Pro-growth, pro-investment policies, not protectionist barriers, are what drive innovation, rebuild industrial strength and restore fiscal sustainability.

The president’s decision to pause new tariffs was a step in the right direction. However, the recent statements about complicated tariff exclusions is no way to govern. Businesses still face deep uncertainty. No company can commit to long-term investments when its cost structure may shift every 90 days. That kind of volatility discourages hiring, delays expansion and weakens the very growth the country needs to outpace its debt.

President Trump has a bold vision for a new golden age of American strength. That vision is within reach, but only if the country doubles down on the innovation, investment and fiscal responsibility that President Trump campaigned on.

Reviving American greatness means building forward, not looking backward. We win the future not by raising walls around our economy but by building and dominating industries that will define the next century.

Tanveer Kathawalla is the founder and managing partner of , an Alexandria-based investment company. He is a graduate of George Washington University and has an MBA in finance from the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business.

General Dynamics submarine designers to strike on May 18 if contract deal isn’t reached


SUMMARY:

  • 2,500 workers may strike shipyard on May 18
  • Union demands include wage hikes, pension restoration, COLA
  • Contract talks continue after April 4 contract expiration
  • awarded $12.4B Navy contract for submarines

GROTON, Conn. (AP) — About 2,500 workers at General Dynamics’ Electric Boat shipyard in Connecticut plan to strike on May 18 if a tentative contract agreement is not reached with the , the union president announced during a rally Thursday.

About 300 union members cheered the announcement made by Bill Louis, president of the Marine Draftsmen’s Association-United Auto Workers of America, Local 571, The Day of New London newspaper reported.

“We’re officially putting the company on notice that if we don’t have an agreement at 11:59 p.m., we strike at midnight May 18,” Louis told the union members, most of whom are essentially responsible for designing the U.S. Navy’s nuclear submarine fleet.

A message was left seeking comment with an EB spokesperson in Groton.

The looming strike comes as a day after the U.S. Navy awarded EB’s parent company, -based General Dynamics, a contract worth more than $12.4 billion for the construction of two Virginia-class submarines authorized during last fiscal year. The funding also covers improved worker pay.

More than two-thirds of the union membership voted last month to authorize a strike if a deal couldn’t be reached on a new contract.

The union’s contract expired on April 4, but leadership has agreed to continue bargaining with EB. They’ve demanded higher wages over four years, the restoration of pension benefits for all members, cost of living adjustments and profit sharing with General Dynamics, among other changes.

“The clock has run out on corporate greed,” President Shawn Fain told members during a rally last month. “And I’ll tell you, this is a new UAW where the membership comes first and we refuse to aim low and settle lower.”

EB’s earlier now-expired offer had included a 23.3% general wage increase over the life of the contract, plus benefits and an increased retirement package.

The company has acknowledged it has been “actively preparing a business continuity plan in the event of a work stoppage,” adding it will “not waver from our commitment to continue building submarines, the nation’s top national security priority.”

Home ownership further out of reach as rising prices, high mortgage rates widen affordability gap

SUMMARY:

  • Buyers now need $114K income to afford a median-priced home
  • average 6.76%, up from 4.1% six years ago
  • U.S. rose over 50% between 2019 and 2024
  • Listings and price reductions are increasing in many cities



LOS ANGELES (AP) — Home ownership is receding further out of reach for most Americans as elevated mortgage rates and rising prices stretch the limits of what buyers can afford.

A homebuyer now needs to earn at least $114,000 a year to afford a $431,250 home — the national median listing price in April, according to data released Thursday by

The analysis assumes that a homebuyer will make a 20% down payment, finance the rest of the purchase with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, and that the buyer’s housing costs won’t exceed 30% of their gross monthly income — an often-used barometer of housing affordability.

Based off the latest U.S. median home listing price, need to earn $47,000 more a year to afford a home than they would have just six years ago. Back then, the median U.S. home listing price was $314,950, and the average rate on a 30-year mortgage hovered around 4.1%. This week, the rate averaged 6.76%.

The annual income required to afford a median-priced U.S. home first crossed into the six figures in May 2022 and hasn’t dropped below that level since. Median household income was about $80,600 annually in 2023, according to the U.S. Census bureau.

In several metro areas, including San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York and Boston, the annual income needed to afford a median-priced home tops $200,000. In San Jose, it’s more than $370,000.

Rock-bottom mortgage rates turbocharged the during the pandemic, fueling bidding wars for homes that pushed up sale prices sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars above a seller initial asking price. soared more than 50% between 2019 and 2024.

The U.S. housing market has been in a sales slump since 2022, when mortgage rates began to climb from their pandemic-era lows. Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell last year to their lowest level in nearly 30 years. In March, they posted their largest monthly drop since November 2022.

It’s not all bad news for prospective homebuyers.

Home prices are rising much more slowly than during the pandemic housing market frenzy. The national median sales price of a previously occupied U.S. home rose 2.7% in March from a year earlier to $403,700, an all-time high for March, but the smallest annual increase since August.

In April, the median price of a home listed for sale rose only 0.3% from a year earlier, according to Realtor.com.

Buyers who can afford current mortgage rates have a wider selection of properties now than a year ago.

Active listings — a tally that encompasses all homes on the market except those pending a finalized sale — surged 30.6% last month from a year earlier, according to Realtor.com. jumped between 67.6% and 70.1% in San Diego, San Jose and Washington D.C.

As properties take longer to sell, more sellers are reducing their asking price. Some 18% of listings had their price reduced last month, according to Realtor.com.

“Sellers are becoming more flexible on pricing, underscored by the price reductions we’re seeing, and while higher mortgage rates are certainly weighing on demand, the silver lining is that the market is starting to rebalance,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “This could create opportunities for buyers who are prepared.”

Wall Street gains ground following a stronger-than-expected report on the US job market

SUMMARY:

  • S&P 500 gains 1.3%, aiming for nine-day win streak
  • U.S. adds 177,000 jobs in April, beating expectations
  • and lead tech sector gains; Apple slips
  • Tariff tensions still loom over economic and market outlook



NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks rose in morning trading on Friday following a stronger-than-expected report on the U.S. job market.

The S&P 500 gained 1.3%, putting the index on track for a ninth straight day of gains. The Industrial Average rose 449 points, or 1.1%, as of 11:06 a.m. Eastern. The composite rose 1.4%.

The gains were broad. Technology stocks were among the companies doing the heaviest lifting. Microsoft surged 2.1% and Nvidia rose 2.6%. Apple, however, fell 3.3% after the iPhone maker estimated that will cost it $900 million.

Banks and other financial companies also made solid gains. JPMorgan Chase rose 2.1% and Visa jumped 1.6%.

Employers added 177,000 jobs in April. That marks a slowdown in hiring from March, but it was solidly better than economists anticipated. However, the latest job figures don’t yet reflect the effects on the economy of President Donald Trump’s across-the-board tariffs against America’s trading partners. Many of the more severe tariffs that were supposed to go into effect in April were delayed by three months, with the notable exception of tariffs against China.

“We’ve already seen how will react if the administration moves forward with their initial tariff plan, so unless they take a different tack in July when the 90-day pause expires, we will see market action similar to the first week of April,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management.

The S&P 500 slumped 9.1% during the first week of April as Trump announced a major escalation of his with more tariffs. The market has now clawed back its losses since then, helped by a string of resilient reports from U.S. companies, hopes for de-escalation of trade tensions with China and expecations that the will still be able to cut rates a few times this year.

The job market is being closely watched for signs of stress amid trade war tensions. Strong employment has helped fuel solid consumer spending and economic growth over the last few years. Economists are now worried about the impact that taxes on imports will have on consumers and businesses, especially about how higher costs will hurt hiring and spending.

The economy is already showing signs of stress. The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.3% annual pace during the first quarter of the year. It was slowed by a surge in imports as businesses tried to get ahead of Trump’s tariffs.

The current round of tariffs and the on-again-off-again nature of Trump’s policy has overshadowed planning for businesses and consumers. Companies have been cutting and withdrawing financial forecasts because of the uncertainty over how much tariffs will cost them and how much they will squeeze consumers and sap spending.

Hopes remain that Trump will roll back some of his tariffs after negotiating trade deals with other countries. China has been a key target, with tariffs of 145%. Its Commerce Ministry said Beijing is evaluating overtures from the U.S. regarding the tariffs.

Investors had a relatively quiet day of earnings reports following a busy week. Exxon Mobil fell 0.2% after reporting its lowest first-quarter profit in years. Rival Chevron rose 0.5% after it also reported its smallest first-quarter profit in years.

Falling crude oil prices have weighed on the sector. Crude oil prices in the U.S. are down about 18% for the year. They fell below $60 per barrel this week, which is a level at which many producers can no longer turn a profit.

Block slumped 21.9% after reporting a sharp drop in first-quarter profit that fell short of analysts’ forecasts. The financial technology company behind Cash App cited a pullback in consumer spending on travel and other discretionary items as a key reason for the results.

Treasury yields rose in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.30% from 4.22% late Thursday.

Phenix Commerce Center lands first tenant

SUMMARY:

Global e-commerce fulfillment, warehousing and logistics provider Cirro Global will be the first tenant to move into Phenix Commerce Center in Hampton.

Cirro, also known as US Elogistics Services, is 149,685 square feet in one of the two warehouses at 30 Aberdeen Road. According to a Thursday news release, the transaction marks the largest lease in the region for a newly constructed Class A facility in over a year.

“The City of Hampton is excited to welcome US Elogistics Services Corp. as the first tenant in the new Phenix Commerce Center,” Mayor Jimmy Gray said in a statement. “Hampton’s world-class workforce, proximity to the , and transportation infrastructure are essential ingredients for the success of this project in addition to the new industrial space that the company will occupy. We look forward to US Elogistics Services Corp.’s long-term success in Hampton.”

Kansas City, Missouri-based NorthPoint Development broke ground on the two-building, 840,000-square-foot in November 2023 and wrapped up construction in January. The site has a 540,470-square-foot warehouse, Building 1, and the almost 300,000-square-foot warehouse that Cirro will be occupying, Building 2.

NorthPoint built the $113.8 million project on the former site of the Virginia School for the Deaf and Blind and Multi-Disabled, a state facility that closed in 2008.

‘s 2022 vote to allow NorthPoint to transform the former school’s 63-acre site into industrial warehouses was controversial, with critics contending it was an inappropriate way to honor the school’s legacy and fearing the project would bring noise and traffic. But Hampton officials at the time cited local tax revenue that would be generated as well as the developer’s estimated creation of 250 jobs as beneficial aspects to the project.

NorthPoint declined to disclose the financial terms of the lease. NorthPoint spokesperson Natasha Rickel said that Cirro plans to move to the site this summer. Cirro did not immediately return requests for comment seeking more information about what it plans to do with the leased space.

Cirro has more than 80 fulfillment centers in over 30 countries. It provides cross-border and domestic shipping as well as e-commerce services. Its North American headquarters is located in Monroe Township, New Jersey.

NorthPoint does not yet know what companies will lease the remainder of the Phenix center.

“Our brokerage team, Colliers, has been fielding inquiries and showing the available space to other potential tenants,” Rickel said in an email. “I can’t speak to any specific move-in dates because we don’t have any signed lease agreements quite yet, but we are actively showing the space.”

NorthPoint believes the proximity to the Port of Virginia will be attractive for potential tenants that may find Hampton a good fit for their business needs.

“The Port of Virginia welcomes Cirro to its new facility in Hampton,” said Virginia Port Authority CEO Stephen Edwards in a statement. “This strategic location will help Cirro capitalize on the efficiency, growth and global reach of America’s most modern gateway, The Port of Virginia. We look forward to supporting this opportunity.”

U.S. adds 177K jobs despite trade war, hiring slows


SUMMARY:

  • U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, surpassing forecasts
  • holds steady at 4.2%
  • Key sectors: healthcare (+51K), transport (+29K), construction (+11K)
  • and raise concerns about future slowdown


American employers added a better-than-expected 177,000 jobs in April as the job market showed resilience in the face of ‘s trade wars.

Hiring was down slightly from a revised 185,000 in March and came in above economists’ expectations for a modest 135,000. The unemployment rate remained at a low 4.2%, the Labor Department reported Friday.

President Donald Trump’s aggressive and unpredictable policies – including massive import taxes – have clouded the outlook for the and the job market and raised fears that the American economy is headed toward recession.

But Friday’s report showed the damage isn’t showing up in the yet. “The labor market refuses to buckle in the face of uncertainty,” Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at fwdbonds, a financial markets research firm. “Politicians can count their lucky stars that companies are holding on to their workers despite the storm clouds forming that could slow the economy further in the second half of the year.”

Transportation and warehousing companies added 29,000 jobs last month, suggesting that companies have been stocking up before essential, imported goods are hit with a wave of new tariffs, driving prices higher. Healthcare companies added nearly 51,000 jobs and bars, restaurants almost 17,000 and construction firms 11,000. Factories lost 1,000 jobs.

Labor Department revisions shaved 58,000 jobs from February and March payrolls.

Average hourly ticked up 0.2% from March and 3.8% from a year ago, nearing the 3.5% that economists view as consistent with the 2% inflation the Federal Reserve wants to see.

The report showed that 518,000 people entered the labor force, and the percentage of those working or looking for work ticked up slightly.

“We are not seeing right now any really adverse effects on the employment market,” Boston College economist Brian Bethune said before the report came out.

Yet many economists fear that the U.S. job market will deteriorate if economic growth takes a hit from trade wars.

Trump’s massive taxes on imports to the U.S. are likely to raise costs for Americans and American businesses that depend on supplies from overseas. They also threaten to slow economic growth. His immigration crackdown threatens to make it more difficult for hotels, restaurants and construction firms to fill job openings. By purging federal workers and cancelling federal contracts, Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency risks wiping out jobs inside the government and out.

“Looking ahead, we expect the steep tariff increases and the surge in uncertainty and financial market volatility will result in a more pronounced labor market downshift than previously anticipated,” Lydia Boussour, senior economist at the accounting and consulting giant EY, wrote this week. “Large cuts to the federal workforce and the cancellations of many government contracts will also be a drag on payroll growth in coming months.”

A slowdown in immigration “will weigh on labor supply dynamics, further constraining . We foresee the unemployment rate rising toward 5% in 2025.”

Trump’s policies have shaken financial markets and frightened consumers. The Conference Board, a business group, reported Tuesday that Americans’ confidence in the economy fell for the fifth straight month to the lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

American workers have at least one thing going for them. Despite the uncertainty about fallout from Trump’s policies, many employers don’t want to risk letting employees go – not after seeing how hard it was to bring people back from the massive but short-lived layoffs of the 2020 COVID-19 recession.

“They laid millions of these people off, and they had a hell of a time getting them back to work,” Boston College’s Bethune said. “So for now, the unemployment rate and the number of people filing claims for jobless benefits every week remain low by historical standards.

The ‘s workforce fell by 9,000 on top of 17,000 job losses in February and March, Still, the full effect of Musk’s DOGE cuts may not be showing up yet. For one thing, Bethune noted, job cuts orders by the billionaire’s DOGE are still being challenged in court. For another, some of those leaving federal agencies were forced into early retirement and don’t show up in the Labor Department’s count of the unemployed.

Solid hiring and low unemployment will likely keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines as it takes time to evaluate the impact of tariffs on the economy. Fed chair Jerome Powell has underscored that the duties are likely to push up prices in the coming months, making the central bank wary of the potential for higher inflation.

The Fed typically fights inflation with higher interest rates, so it is unlikely to cut its key short-term rate anytime soon. It might change course and reduce rates if layoffs spiked and unemployment rose, but Friday’s report suggests that isn’t happening yet.

____

AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber contributed to this story.

Virginia Tech’s president defends NIH research funding


SUMMARY:

  • President Sands warns cuts could cost Virginia Tech $13M
  • DEI offices shut down across Virginia colleges amid Trump orders
  • Tech’s federally funded tops $550M annually
  • Sands leads growth, tackles NIL issues in NCAA

As college administrators nationwide navigate funding challenges and difficult choices in the second , most university presidents aren’t writing public letters about the times we live in.

But Virginia Tech President did just that. In a Feb. 10 letter to the university community, he addressed the White House’s attempt to cap indirect cost reimbursements for National Institutes of Health research, funding that helps maintain labs and other facilities. The move, Sands wrote, could result in a $13 million hit to Virginia Tech’s total sponsored research budget, which was $453.4 million in 2024.

And while $13 million might not be an emergency for a large institution like Tech, the overall NIH cutbacks — in addition to other federal budget slashes anticipated — would have a “debilitating effect” on research universities to “carry out their mission,” Sands wrote. “Lives will be lost due to the corresponding reduction in the pace of biomedical research. It will degrade the nation’s ability to compete in a global technology environment, threaten our national security, and impact the economies of the states and localities that host these institutions.”

Virginia Tech’s total federally funded research expenses in fiscal 2024 exceeded $308 million, he noted, with direct spending of $235 million and $73 million going to facilities and administrative reimbursement.

Meanwhile, in an effort to protect their , public universities across the nation are closing their diversity, equity and inclusion offices and ending other DEI initiatives, under orders from .

So, in late March, Virginia Tech’s board of visitors voted to dissolve the university’s Office for Inclusive and Excellence after the University of Virginia and Virginia Commonwealth University’s board members did the same.

In an April town hall meeting on Tech’s campus that was streamed online, Sands explained that total federal funding at Tech amounts to about $550 million a year, and that it represents significant leverage.

“Just to give you an overall perspective, our overall operating budget is $2.3 billion, so $550 million is a big chunk of that,” Sands said.

Regarding the Tech board members’ move to dissolve the university’s diversity office, Sands said that “every board of visitors at the major universities in Virginia has done the same thing or almost exactly the same thing. … You should know that the [Virginia Tech] Board of Visitors is trying to protect the institution. You may disagree with how they are doing it, but that is what they are trying to do.”

It comes down to power wielded by the federal government and who’s in the White House, but the option of withholding federal funding “has been a consistent threat,” Sands said. “They rarely use that hammer. The difference now is that you can see the federal government is swinging that hammer rather wildly, and then they are asking questions later. It is just hard to know where that is going to end up.”

Close to home

In an interview with Virginia Business, Sands says that several of his university’s researchers working on projects funded by federal grants and contracts received stop-work orders from the federal government, although some projects have resumed. “It’s a wait-and-see kind of situation.”

As reported about other Trump policy changes, some of the decision to place stop-work orders on research projects appear to have been “done by word search,” Sands says. “They were looking for certain words, and they wanted to pause anything that had those words in the description of the work.”

Although Sands didn’t specify which words were flagged, in February, The Washington Post reported that research projects at the National Science Foundation with the descriptive words “women,” “diverse,” “trauma” and “equity” were among those halted, at least temporarily. Sands notes that at Virginia Tech, “it was a pretty small percentage of what we do, to be honest, and hopefully will remain that way.”

But massive cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development — the federal agency that was responsible for civilian foreign aid and development assistance worldwide, which was essentially shut down by the White House — has also impacted some of Virginia Tech’s research, particularly involving agriculture, Sands says. “As a land-grant institution, we do a lot in agriculture, and we’re globally engaged in diversity, so most land-grants had that challenge around USAID.”

As for NIH grants, biomedical research is “a very fast-growing area for Virginia Tech,” particularly at the Fralin Biomedical Research Institute and the Virginia Tech Carilion School of Medicine, Sands says. “We have the second fastest-growing NIH portfolio in the country.”

Sands’ decision to write a public letter and speak openly about White House policy is relatively rare among his cohorts, as they try to protect their funding and not rile up the powers that be.

“I don’t comment too often on things that could be regarded as political,” Sands says. “But the reality is this one had direct impact on the institution, so I felt the need to at least explain the impact of that decision, if the federal government were to follow through on that.”

Not only would cuts to research funding affect Virginia Tech’s future in drawing global talent to Virginia, but they also could impact students from around the state who benefit from paid internships made possible by federal funding, he adds.

“Those two initiatives — when something touches those — I’m going to speak out,” Sands says.

Now in his 11th year at Virginia Tech, Sands spent time speaking with students at the 2024 Homecoming Tailgate in Blacksburg. Photos courtesy Virginia Tech

A growing profile

Trained as a materials engineer with expertise in LEDs, nanotechnology and microelectronics, Sands is in his 11th year leading Virginia Tech, and he has been instrumental in expanding the university’s presence beyond its origins in Blacksburg, most prominently in , where the university’s $1.1 billion Innovation Campus opened its first academic building in late February, housing graduate programs in computer science, computer engineering and business.

Tech’s Innovation Campus, as well as the state’s Tech Talent Investment Program initiative to produce 32,000 more computer science and engineering graduates over two decades, were widely cited as major factors in Amazon.com’s 2018 decision to build its East Coast HQ2 headquarters in Arlington County.

Sands also has overseen significant growth in enrollment and applications. In 2019 and 2020, Virginia Tech reached 30,000 undergraduates for the first time, and undergrad enrollment has grown to about 31,000 today, Sands says. This academic year, the school received 58,000 applications for undergraduates, “three times what it was a decade ago,” he notes, “so that means we’re much more selective than we really want to be, to be honest.”

That’s placed some stress on the campus. “We’ve pretty much hit the limit in terms of the capacity of the campus and in the surrounding community in Blacksburg, and we have a project going on called Partnerships for Progress, which engages the local jurisdictions in a sort of joint planning, so we can plan for a future where we might grow,” Sands says. “I think our growth potential is probably more outside of Blacksburg now.”

Sands also chairs the NCAA Division I Board of Directors, a post he assumed in August 2024. The board governs Division I policies, particularly the relationship between college sports and their universities. At the moment, D1 schools are grappling with relatively new name, image and likeness (NIL) payment rules for student athletes and the loosened NCAA transfer portal policy, which have together radically changed athletics at most larger universities.

Unlike in the past, student athletes — primarily in football and men’s and women’s basketball, but increasingly in other sports — often transfer to new schools after a year or two to secure higher NIL payments, creating instability for coaches who now must recruit incoming freshmen as well as players in transfer portals.

“This past year has been particularly challenging, because name, image and likeness in its original manifestation back in 2021 was intended to be not used for inducement for play, or pay for play,” Sands says.

Although the NCAA has attempted to adjust the system, temporary court injunctions have hampered rules enforcement, Sands notes. “That has created a period of chaos, where institutions that have a lot of money can dump it on NIL, and scrutiny has not been there because legally everybody’s handcuffed.”

The Atlantic Coast Conference, in which Virginia Tech is one of 18 member teams, has struggled to produce strong men’s basketball teams in the era of NIL and the transfer portal, and prominent voices like former Duke basketball coach Mike Kryzyzewski have called for change.

However, the expected settlements of two lawsuits embroiling the NCAA and its five power conferences — the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC — are expected to eventually calm some of the chaos.

In addition to $2.85 billion in backpay to former D1 athletes, there will be a cap on future NIL payments, which will prevent colleges or fans with the biggest pocketbooks from outbidding everyone else, at least to some degree, Sands notes. “It won’t be impossible, but it’ll be much harder for an institution — or a booster — to essentially pay to have someone play at a particular institution.”

Instead, starting July 1, student athletes will receive shares of the revenue “they help generate, which is really the source of the tension that’s been created over the last couple of decades, this huge amount of money coming in from television for media contracts,” Sands says. “So, I think we’re entering potentially into a much more stable and more competitive environment where the ACC, for example, should be able to restore some of its competitiveness.”

At Virginia Tech, Athletics Director Whit Babcock “has been a great resource through this,” Sands says. Once the NIL settlements are in place, “I think some of that normalcy will return. I think the coming year will be chaotic, but hopefully it’ll settle down.”


Virginia Tech at a glance

Founded
Founded in 1872 as a public land-grant university, Virginia Tech was originally known as Virginia Agricultural and Mechanical College. Renamed Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in 1970, the school manages a research portfolio of more than $556 million.

Campus
Virginia Tech’s main campus in Blacksburg stretches over 2,600 acres. Tech also has regional presences statewide and a study-abroad campus in Switzerland. Academic Building One, the first part of the university’s $1.1 billion Innovation Campus, opened in Alexandria in January.

Enrollment (Fall 2024)
Undergraduate: 31,035
Graduate and professional: 7,822
In-state undergraduate: 20,271
International: 2,698

Student profile
Male: 57%
Female: 43%
Students of color: 12,153

Employees
Full-time employees: 9,126
Research and teaching faculty: 3,719

Tuition, fees, housing and financial aid*
In-state undergraduate: $15,950
Out-of-state undergraduate: $37,777
Room and board: $12,358
Average financial aid awarded to entering in-state undergraduates in 2023-24: $11,998
*2024-25 figures, except as noted

Strategy reports $4.2B Q1 loss

Tysons-based , the world’s largest corporate investor, reported a loss of $4.22 billion in its first quarter report released Thursday.

Formerly known as , the company, which rebranded as Strategy in February, said it had a quarterly per-share loss of $16.49. Strategy posted first quarter revenue of $111.1 million, a 3.6% decrease from the first quarter of 2024.

As of Monday, Strategy reported owning 553,555 bitcoins. The was purchased for about $37.90 billion, averaging approximately $68,459 per coin.

According to , the nation’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, as of 5:10 p.m. Thursday, bitcoin was selling for $96,633.39 per coin — making Strategy’s holdings worth about $51.55 billion.

Under the direction of bitcoin whale and company founder Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy announced its first bitcoin purchase in August 2020, making it one of the first public companies to convert its cash treasury reserves into cryptocurrency as a store of value.

“Our capital markets strategy continues to grow our bitcoin holdings while delivering superior shareholder value,” Phong Le, the company’s president and CEO, said in a statement. “With over 70 public companies worldwide now adopting a bitcoin treasury standard, we are proud to be at the forefront in pioneering this space.”

Saylor has made bold pronouncements and statements about bitcoin in the past. In September 2024, he told CNBC that he thought the cryptocurrency could rise as high as $13 million per bitcoin by 2045, a prediction he repeated on Fox Business in December 2024, hours before bitcoin breached the $100,000 mark.

Saylor’s and MicroStrategy’s fortunes have turned before. He stepped down as CEO after MicroStrategy’s August 2022 earnings report, when the company disclosed that it had paid a total of $3.977 billion for its bitcoin, which at that time had fallen to a market value of about $2.451 billion. At that point, MicroStrategy also had taken on about $2.4 billion in loans and debt to acquire bitcoin. At points in 2022, the cryptocurrency fell below $20,000 to prices it had not seen since 2020.