Anticipating President-elect Trump‘s impact on agriculture in his first 100 days of office, industry experts say they are concerned about the fate of the Farm Bill and how the agriculture industry will sustain itself amid rising production costs, labor shortages, and soaring land costs.  

In advance of the election, the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), a national lobbying and agriculture group positioning itself as “the voice of agriculture,” posted a questionnaire featuring Vice President Harris and President-Elect Trump. 

In it, the candidates responded to key issues, including food systems and farmer resiliency, international trade, tax policy, agricultural labor, rural life and health, among others.  

“The American Farmer is essential to our economy and our way of life. We rely on our farmers, ranchers, and growers to ensure the safety and security of our food supply,” Trump said in response to AFBF’s questionnaire. “As president, I signed a massive Farm Bill that improved agriculture programs and increased the amount of money that farmers can borrow. … As president I will support access and affordability to the risk management tools that were a part of the 2018 Farm Bill I signed into law.” 

The Farm Bill is a package of legislation reviewed roughly every five years since 1933. The bill allocates spending to key areas, including crop insurance for farmers, nutrition, conservation and sustainability, and beginner farmer training, among other issues. 

Bailey Fisher is a Federal Affairs Specialist at the Pennsylvania Farm Bureau (PFB). As the organization’s principal lobbyist, Fisher is a liaison to AFBF and is responsible for organizing grassroots lobbying efforts to implement national policy initiatives, analyze federal policy and commodity market trends, and oversee farm labor and farm safety issues.  

“It is really difficult to see some of our members trying to break even,” Fisher said, citing burdensome labor and input costs and finding affordable farmland as being a barrier for beginning farmers and ranchers to enter the industry, paired with a labor shortage as the rising average farmer age increases and moves toward aging out of the industry. For Fisher, the Farm Bill is a main priority looking toward Trump’s first 100 days in office and moving into the first quarter of 2025.  

The 2018 Farm Bill signed by then-President Trump expired on Sept. 30, 2023. Upon its expiration, the Senate voted to pass a House bill for a continuing resolution that would extend the bill through September 2024, giving Congress 10 months to pass a new Farm Bill. As the deadline came and went, Congress closed legislative sessions moving into recess and election season without a new Farm Bill.  

“If we end the 118th [Congress] without a Farm Bill, obviously that is going to be our number one top priority until we can get that done,” Fisher said. “We were supposed to have this in 2023. We kicked the can to 2024. Now it looks like we may kick the can to 2025. So based on our economy, based on input costs, various different factors, our farmers really do need a Farm Bill as soon as possible at this point. … I think farmers are definitely scared to see what 2025 has for them without a Farm Bill.”  

Dr. Mike Strain, Louisiana Commissioner of Agriculture & Forestry, said his office’s main priorities going into the first quarter of 2025 are to “continue effectively and efficiently carrying out our mission to promote, protect, and advance agriculture and forestry. Moreover, we will be working diligently with our congressional delegation to pass a Farm Bill.”  

At The Louisiana Farm Bureau Federation, a top priority is seeing more immediate assistance in advance of the presidential transition with the passage of the FARM Act. Authored by Rep. Trent Kelly (R-Miss.), the Farmer Assistance and Revenue Mitigation Act of 2024 aims to provide “assistance to farmers when their revenue falls below the cost of production due to circumstances beyond their control,” as stated on Kelly’s website. If passed, the FARM Act would provide immediate economic supplemental assistance to farmers within 90 days of passage.  

“You can have whatever trade issues in the future, [but] if our farmers are being told they aren’t going to get crop loans in 2025 because there’s no support … it doesn’t matter what happens trade-wise,” said Avery Davidson, Communications Director at The Louisiana Farm Bureau, attributing the current strain to a “perfect storm” of issues including high land rent prices in places like Northeast Louisiana and commodity prices being below the cost of production. 

“We’ve been asking our members to send letters and emails to the members of congress, to urge them to pass the FARM Act and to pass a new Farm Bill,” Davidson said. “All of our focus is now on some kind of supplemental assistance [to] help [farmers] bridge the gaps.”  

Allen Carter, President of the New Jersey Farm Bureau, is leading the organization to fulfill the priorities outlined at the New Jersey Farm Bureau 106th Annual Meeting held in November 2024. Representatives from counties across New Jersey gathered to define its agenda for the coming year, with the top three issue areas being farm viability, soil disturbance, and the right to farm.  

“Former President Trump was very kind to the farmers. He liked the farmers. He was actually the first president that came to the American Farm Bureau conference three years in a row,” Carter said, adding to the sentiments of his colleagues at other Farm Bureau affiliates. “The hardest thing right now is trying to make sure the Farm Bill gets through.”  

According to Carter, New Jersey has seen an increase in its number of farms while the rest of the country has seen an average decrease of 7% between the 2017 and 2023 census.  

“We’re kind of bucking the trend,” Carter said. “We’re not the big farms, we’re small, but we’re creating these next generation farmers. … There are a lot of programs out there. And the Farm Bill will help subsidize a lot of those programs to teach these young folks how to be successful at farming because it’s definitely not getting easier.”  

But nationwide, advocacy extends beyond the passage of the Farm Bill. Carter and his team are “constantly watching what is coming out of Washington” and communicating with other state farm bureaus. 

“Over the past four years, what I’m hearing from other state farms bureaus is that the trade has got to get a little better. It kind of feels like there’s a little bit of a shortcoming there. We’re hoping that is ironed out with the new administration,” Carter said. 

When asked about his plans for international trade, Trump told AFBF he aims to “knock down barriers to American Farm products,” and work to pass the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act, which would “increase the tariff on any imported good from a third country to equal that imposed by the third country in question on the same good when imported from the United States,” as reported by Reuters.  

“Other countries will have two choices,” Trump stated on his website. “They’ll get rid of their tariffs on us, or they will pay us hundreds of billions of dollars, and the United States will make an absolute fortune.”  

“There’s been lots of discussion on what trade will look like under President-elect Trump,” Fisher said. “He’s definitely said specifics in terms of tariffs and what he plans to do with certain countries on the trade front. But I think until he is sworn in, until he puts these practices into place, it’s hard for us to make official comments or make positions. … We’ve definitely had those conversations with his transition team on strategizing how to use tariffs.” 

In New Jersey, Carter’s team hopes to see Trump take steps toward regulatory reform.  

“We’re constantly being told by elected officials that, ‘you know, you guys are gonna have to supply twice as much food because the population is gonna grow X numbers by 2050.’ But then they go and they take tools out of our toolbox to be able to accomplish that,” Carter said. “I’m hoping that with the administration there will be more science-based regulations rather than just ‘I feel this hurts XYZ, so let’s ban it.’”  

When asked about regulatory reform by AFBF, Trump said, “I will slash regulations that stifle American agriculture and make everything more expensive. I will implement transparency and common sense in rulemaking.” 

“President Trump is a champion of the American farmer,” said Strain. “In his first term, he worked tirelessly to ensure farmers could do their jobs with less burdensome regulations.”  

In his response to AFBF in advance of the election, Trump said it’s not enough to invest in the nation’s economy and agriculture, “we must invest in our people.”  

“The labor shortage in agriculture is severe,” Fisher said. “We’ve had this problem for decades now. It wasn’t just when COVID started that our workforce was struggling. … We need to figure out ways that people are incentivized to go [into] ag and to work in our workforce. Because again, it’s not the most appealing. It’s not the most cushy office job that you can get, but it’s a needed job because it feeds people.” 

When representation at a state or federal level changes, PFB aims to be proactive.  

“Agriculture is one of those industries where we have to get along with everybody because everybody has to eat,” Fisher said. “It’s not hard to have a conversation with the legislator [when lobbying]. And that’s what we’ve been telling our members is that you really need to get out there.”  

PFB has already held briefings with PA’s two newly elected representatives — Congressman-elect Rob Bresnahan and Congressman-elect Ryan McKenzie.  

“Having those conversations ahead of time, we believe is incredibly important,” Fisher said. “Making sure they know who farm bureau is, how we can help them, what our priorities are, explaining how we’re really one of the only grassroots, truly grassroots organizations left. … That isn’t necessarily specific to the presidential administration or the federal level. … We’re doing the same at our state level as well.”  

“Since 2020 and the pandemic, Americans have come to better understand where their groceries come from. That is a good thing,” Strain said. “With each administration, there will be new policies, new ways of doing business, new people in place. The bottom line is we all work together with a common purpose.” 

Kylie Stoltzfus is a contributing writer for Central Penn Business Journal and Lehigh Valley Business. 

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