Spanberger leads Earle-Sears in early state polling

It’s still early days, but in Virginia’s 2025 gubernatorial race, Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in a pair of new statewide polls.

In the Virginia Commonwealth University Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs poll released Friday, former U.S. Rep. Spanberger has the support of 44% of people polled, and Earle-Sears has 34%, while 17% say they are undecided. Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Civic Leadership reported last week that Spanberger has a five-point lead over the lieutenant governor, 44% to 39%, with 16% undecided.

The two polls show a wider gap between the candidates than previous surveys.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, in a poll conducted in December 2024 and released Jan. 10, reported that Spanberger was ahead by 3 points, while she had only a one-point advantage in a poll released Jan. 8 by Emerson College and The Hill.

Spanberger and Earle-Sears are their parties’ presumed gubernatorial nominees, although U.S. Rep. Bobby Scott has not yet ruled out a run for the Democratic nomination, as of last week. The Mason-Dixon poll asked respondents who they would vote for between Scott and Earle-Sears, and she had a two-point lead over Scott in that result, although Scott showed stronger results than Spanberger among Black voters, receiving 85% of their votes compared to 81% for Spanberger.

“The 10% lead of Spanberger to Earle-Sears (44% to 34%) should cause Earle-Sears to be concerned, especially given 25% of Republicans do not show support for her candidacy,” former Gov. Doug Wilder said in a statement released with the VCU poll Friday. “Spanberger’s lead, however, could be significantly impacted should Republicans close ranks around Earle-Sears’ candidacy. This is likewise true with independents since they prefer Earle-Sears to Spanberger (21% to 15%).” 

According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Spanberger has raised more than $9.59 million in campaign dollars and had $6.55 million cash on hand as of Dec. 31, 2024, while Earle-Sears raised $2.56 million and had $2.11 million cash on hand. Spanberger declared her candidacy in November 2023, 10 months before Earle-Sears threw her hat in the ring.

If either woman wins the gubernatorial race, as seems likely, the victor will make history as Virginia’s first woman governor. Earle-Sears is the first woman to serve as Virginia’s lieutenant governor and the first Black woman and immigrant to hold statewide office.

Spanberger, a former CIA officer and postal inspector, served three terms in Congress, first beating Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Dave Brat in 2018 in a traditionally GOP-leaning district, and maintaining her seat in 2022 after congressional redistricting. She represented Fredericksburg, Caroline County and part of Prince William County until Jan. 1, when Democrat U.S. Rep. Eugene Vindman succeeded Spanberger in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District.

Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who has endorsed Earle-Sears in the governor’s race, is rumored to be interested in running for U.S. Sen. Mark Warner’s seat, which is up for election in 2026. Warner, a former Democratic governor, would be seeking his fourth term in the Senate and has 45% support of voters polled by VCU, compared to Youngkin’s 38%.

As for other areas of focus, CNU poll respondents said that improving K-12 education, reducing health care costs and strengthening the state’s economy are their highest priorities for the governor and the General Assembly. In the VCU poll, nearly 60% of voters said the economy and cost of living were their top issue, and K-12 education was the second most-cited issue.