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Mixed economic messages impact public mood
Kira Jenkins // February 27, 2023//
Going by media coverage alone, you’d be forgiven for thinking that 2021’s Great Resignation turned into “quiet quitting” in 2022, but as always, the national mood is more complicated than any two-word phrase could convey.
There are still significant labor shortages in certain sectors — notably health care, education and skilled trades. And yes, a lot of Americans have realized that work doesn’t have to be their whole life and that family, friends, vacations and hobbies deserve their share of attention, prompting what some call “quiet quitting” and what others call “work-life balance.”
Other people got loudly laid off in late 2022 and early 2023 by tech giants and other big employers in anticipation of a recession that may not even happen. Major layoffs by Google, Amazon, Capital One and Microsoft signaled an end to big hiring bonuses and other perks offered in the thick of the labor shortage — a settling down after an extremely employee-friendly moment.
So, where does Virginia fall in all of this? In pretty good shape, generally, thanks to federal defense contracting and other reliable industries. As of December 2022, the state’s unemployment rate was 3%, a half point lower than the national average, and our labor force participation rate rose to 63.7%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous December but still below the 66.4% average before the pandemic.
The state has about 300,000 unfilled jobs, according to Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who spoke last August about his plans to overhaul the state’s workforce training program. In December, the governor proposed creating a state Department of Workforce Development and Advancement to take over 13 programs from eight state agencies, in essence creating a one-stop shop. As of this publication’s deadline, a bill that would create the department was still working its way through the state legislature, but it received unanimous support in the state Senate and was expected to pass the House of Delegates.
Speaking to Virginia Business before the 2023 session, House Majority Leader Terry Kilgore, R-Gate City, said the state’s current workforce training programs are “duct-taped together” and in need of a more cohesive structure. “It’s crazy,” he added. “We don’t really know what our return on investment is.”
Another item on Youngkin’s list of priorities is allocating more money toward industrial site preparation, which would place the state in competition for more megaprojects — the kinds of billion-dollar deals Virginia has missed out on because the state didn’t have enough large properties ready to go for construction. Youngkin proposed $450 million more in the state’s budget for site preparation, although legislators appeared likely to approve only part of that amount.
No matter how these efforts shake out, it will take some time for most Virginians to feel their impact — at least a few years before more manufacturing jobs develop in Southern Virginia and other rural areas, and several years before thousands more trained nurses, cybersecurity tech workers, wind-farm employees and others are at work.
As we’ve seen over the past couple of years, public moods are mysterious things that don’t hinge on hard stats. A lot of people felt like a recession was around the corner in 2022, and some are still feeling it now, even though the nation recorded economic growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2022 and a decrease in inflation at the end of the year. Some economists say a recession or slowdown could still happen this year, while others say the economy may actually grow.
“After two and a half years of instability, we’re all ready to get back to normal,” Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President and CEO Tom Barkin mused in November 2022. “But what’s normal? I’d say normal is not going back to where we were.”
Making the grade: Youngkin focuses on industrial site prep
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Surgical precision: EVMS merger on way to reality
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The big freeze: Governor flattens state tuition rates
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Paying it forward: Health care, arts giving thrives in Va.
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Resetting the bar: Law firms consider mergers to meet staffing demands
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Virginia hold ’em: State’s first two casinos now open
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