Goldman’s profit beats on record stock trading, sees robust M&A activity in 2026

Jan 15 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs’ fourth-quarter profit beat Wall Street expectations on Thursday, driven by a surge in dealmaking and trading, as it expressed optimism for investment banking in the year ahead.

A friendlier regulatory environment under U.S. President Donald Trump, lower interest rates and excess cash have led companies to pursue more deals.

“The world is set up at the moment to be incredibly constructive in 2026 for M&A and capital markets,” Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said on a call with analysts.

Goldman’s fees from investment banking rose 25% to $2.58 billion from a year ago, but fell slightly short of the $2.66 billion that analysts expected.

Shares of the Wall Street giant, which have risen more than 50% in 2025, climbed over 3% in morning trade.

The bank’s equity traders capitalized on volatility and a broader rally in the U.S. market as investors speculated on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path and the prospects for AI companies.

Goldman’s equity revenue rose to a record $4.31 billion, up from $3.45 billion a year earlier, while trading revenue for fixed income, currencies, and commodities climbed 12.5% to $3.11 billion.

STRONG M&A MARKET

Top dealmakers expect the rally in mergers – which climbed near record levels in 2025 – to continue this year as large AI investments fuel more tech deals.

Peer Morgan Stanley also beat profit expectations on the back of higher investment banking revenue on Thursday.

Goldman advised on some large mergers in 2025, including the $56.5 billion leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts and Alphabet’s $32 billion acquisition of cloud security firm Wiz. These outsized deals helped it secure the top spot once again for global M&A in 2025, with the bank advising on $1.48 trillion in total volume of deals and raking in $4.6 billion in fees.

Global M&A volumes swelled to $5.1 trillion in 2025, up 42% from 2024, according to Dealogic data.

WEALTH MANAGEMENT BUSINESS BOOMS

Goldman raised its pre-tax margin targets for the assets and wealth management business, forecasting it at 30% in the medium term, compared with a goal of mid-20s previously. The unit posted a 25% pre-tax margin in 2025.

The bank raked in its highest-ever revenue from management fees in a given quarter, at $3.09 billion. It has focused on the business to gain more stable income versus volatile trading and investment banking.

Goldman had last month decided to acquire Innovator Capital Management, an active exchange-traded fund provider, in a $2 billion deal.

The bank’s assets under supervision grew to $3.61 trillion, from $3.14 trillion a year ago.

BIG IPOs ANTICIPATED

The IPO market rebounded in recent months despite turbulence from a government shutdown over the fall that delayed some listings.

Advisors such as Goldman will compete for a flurry of U.S. listings expected in 2026, with the likes of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic gearing up for potential IPOs.

Goldman was a lead underwriter in medical supply giant Medline’s IPO in the quarter, which was the largest listing globally in 2025.

Its profit per share came in at $14.01, beating analysts’ expectations of $11.67, according to data compiled by LSEG.

EXPENSES IN FOCUS

Goldman’s expenses have risen in 2025, partly due to investments in AI operations and higher compensation for salaries and bonuses.

Its operating expense in the quarter rose 18% to $9.72 billion. The firm’s headcount increased 2% over 2025.

The investment bank increased its quarterly dividend to $4.50 per share in the first quarter, underscoring its expectations for a strong year.

“The dividend increase is a powerful testament to management’s faith in sustainably higher earnings from the franchise,” said Stephen Biggar, a banking analyst at Argus Research.

UNWINDING CONSUMER BUSINESS

The bank recently struck a deal with JPMorgan Chase to take over its Apple card partnership, and expected a 46 cent per share increase in its results due to the exit.

Shedding the Apple card is Goldman’s latest big step away from its ill-fated consumer business. The exit comes as other lenders are expressing concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10%.

Goldman’s earnings also got a lift from the release of $2.48 billion from its stockpiles to cover loan losses from the card. Morningstar estimated the bank would gain $145 million from the transaction.

(Reporting by Utkarsh Shetti in Bengaluru and Saeed Azhar in New York; Editing by Lananh Nguyen and Arun Koyyur)