CNU poll shows tight race for GA control

A poll of 800 likely Virginia voters shows a tight race for party control of the General Assembly, which is currently split between Democrats controlling the state Senate and a Republican majority in the House of Delegates. According to results released Tuesday by Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Civic Leadership, 42% of respondents say they intend to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while 41% say they plan to vote for the Republican.

Early voting started statewide in September, and Nov. 7 is Election Day, when Virginia voters will cast their ballots to fill all 140 seats in the Virginia Senate and the House of Delegates. Although the 2023 races are fondly known as off-off-year elections, the combination of statewide redistricting and a virtually unprecedented wave of retiring and ousted legislators has focused a great deal of national attention and PAC funding on a handful of tight local races that could determine the state’s political power structure for decades.

According to the Wason Center poll, which was conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 11 via phone, the top issues among voters are the economy and inflation (27% of all voters polled; 41% among Republicans), abortion (17% of all voters; 25% among Democrats), and K-12 education (12%).

President Joe Biden, who is seeking re-election in 2024, has 41% approval among Virginia voters polled.

Meanwhile, term-limited Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin has 55% job approval, although majorities of Virginians polled disagreed with some of the governor’s positions, including leaving the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI); 65% of voters polled say they want the state to remain in the carbon cap-and-trade program.

Also, 54% of voters polled say they oppose a 15-week abortion ban that Youngkin and other Republicans have promoted as a compromise between the state’s current law that permits abortions up to 26 weeks (although third-trimester abortions require approval by three doctors who find a woman’s health is at risk), and 12-week limits in other Southern states.

The CNU poll indicates that 39% of those polled agree with a ban on abortions after 15 weeks, although more than 80% of voters said they favor legal abortions if the mother’s life is threatened, or if the pregnancy is unviable or the result of rape. Sixty-five percent say abortion should be legal if the baby is likely to be born with severe disabilities or health problems.

A 58% majority say that the state should allow retail sales of recreational marijuana, a process that was started with the decriminalization of marijuana possession and legalization for medical and recreational use in 2021, when both General Assembly houses were under Democratic control. However, since Youngkin was elected and the GOP regained control of the House of Delegates in 2022, lawmakers have not yet passed a structure for retail marijuana sales.

Another hot issue — parents’ influence in K-12 schools — shows a split among voters; 81% say they trust teachers to make the right decisions for school-aged children, although 67% support requiring parental notification if a student wants to use pronouns that differ from their birth certificate, and 65% would prevent transgender athletes from participating in sports teams that match their gender identity.

As political observers have noted, if Republicans retain power in the House and reverse Democrats’ narrow hold in the state Senate, Youngkin will have an easy time passing abortion limits, corporate tax cuts and other GOP priorities — as well as being in a prime position if he decides to launch a late 2024 presidential bid. However, if Democrats maintain their Senate majority and/or regain control of the House, the remainder of the governor’s term is likely to be a long two years for Youngkin.

More money for candidates

Additionally on Tuesday, the Virginia Public Access Project released campaign finance reports for Sept. 1-30, reporting political fundraising in excess of $1 million for Senate candidates in tight contests:

• Democrat Russet Perry — $1,624,983 raised in September; $461,967 balance on Sept. 30
• Republican Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant — $1,259,177 raised; $493,052 balance
• Democrat Sen. Monty Mason — $1,233,585 raised; $225,988 balance
• Republican Juan Pablo Segura — $1,075,450 raised; $26,354 balance

In the House, the top fundraisers for September were:

• Democrat Kimberly Adams — $1,004,909 raised in September; $355,222 balance on Sept. 30
• Republican Del. Karen Greenhalgh — $979,477 raised; $865,317 balance
• Democrat Michael Feggans — $915,996 raised; $300,020 balance
• Republican Del. Kim Taylor — $902,686 raised; $562,086 balance

Meanwhile, Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC raised $6.5 million in September, and as of Oct. 7, the political action committee has a healthy $6.5 million balance, after spending $6.2 million from Sept. 1 to Oct. 7, primarily on GOP candidates in close races. The Democratic National Committee also donated $1.2 million to the state Democratic Party in September, as Biden directed last month.