Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Upcoming Event

Best Places to Work in Virginia

Hamburger Menu Hamburger Menu

byline: Bernie Niemeier

The end of innocence

First, a remembrance of English lessons long passed:  The Romantic Period (c. 1770-1850) was an artistic, literary and social movement.  Originating in Europe and spreading across the Western world, it emphasized the primacy of emotions, aesthetics and the natural world in human experience, largely as a reaction to the cold rationalism of the Industrial Revolution.

Blake, Wordsworth, Byron, Coleridge, Shelley and Keats were popular Romantic poets in England.  On this side of the pond, Longfellow, Emerson, Poe and Whitman were among American representatives of the movement.  A common poetic theme was innocence versus experience, often expressed as mourning for the loss of intense youthful emotions as a result of growing older.

Experience does make a difference.  Our passion for issues and events naturally moderates as we observe with greater insight that most upsides also have a downside.  With patience, we can often learn from things that run counter to first impressions.

Lately, I’ve been surprised by a few things.  Who would have guessed that management at the Volkswagen assembly plant in Chattanooga, Tenn., would not oppose an organizing vote by the United Auto Workers?  The South has attracted many automakers in recent decades largely because of its right-to-work laws.  Still, the organizing attempt failed because the workers rejected it.  Good for them, but the lack of management opposition to the union vote still is counterintuitive, at least for me.

Around the same time up in DeeCee, the House approved a higher debt-ceiling limit without conditions.  A year ago, this was unthinkable because of increasing opposition to higher federal debt.  This time, for the most part, the vote barely raised an eyebrow.

In Richmond, just four years ago, Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli instructed state universities to remove policy language extending anti-discrimination protections to sexual minorities. 

In January, newly minted AG Mark Herring refused to defend Virginia’s constitutional amendment defining marriage solely as a bond between one man and one woman. The amendment, passed in 2006, has now been found unconstitutional in a federal District Court.

For that matter, who would’ve guessed four years ago that Bob and Maureen McDonnell would be under federal indictment?  How quickly things change.

More trends:  Reports indicate that the Tea Party is losing its ability to raise the kind of cash needed to win in today’s PAC-heavy electoral environment.  At the same time, the Christian right seems to be losing its vise-like hold on Republican politics.

On the Democratic front, African-Americans suddenly find themselves sharing hard-won political influence with growing numbers of Hispanic and Asian voters.  Who would’ve thought that changes to the status quo in both major parties would be coming so quickly?

This year’s population demographics become next year’s voter demographics. Cultural and demographic norms are moving targets.  Change is like that — it sneaks up on you.

In Virginia, the 2014 General Assembly regular session was not one that anybody would call remarkable for its legislation.  Even the much-touted ethics reform bill turned out pretty weak.  Truth be told, the bar just isn’t set very high for Gov. Terry McAuliffe.  His requirements to look good on the job are about the same as those for an Episcopal priest — just keep your marriage in good order and don’t get drunk in public.

We’ll see what happens with Medicaid expansion, McAuliffe’s signature issue for his first legislative session.  (It was scheduled to be tackled in a special session beginning in late March.) The governor faced pretty stiff opposition from Republican legislators clinging to the idea that sending a message to Washington is more important than taking care of business at home.
For legislators, perhaps this really is an end of innocence.  For a while now, their primary goal has been to ensure re-election and local power through gerrymandered districts. 

Their reasoning seems to be that picking the right voters concentrates power in the hands of one party.  That’s the innocence side of the equation.

The experience side shows that while tightly gerrymandered districts fix results for the party at the district level, they fail miserably at nominating candidates who can win statewide or national races, where a broader appeal is needed.  The bigger the geography, the bigger the tent required to win.

What’s more is that single-party control also fails miserably at the business of governing.  Statesmanship is the art of compromise, not to be confused with slamming a one-party agenda through the legislature — railroad jobs turn into train wrecks. There’s a reason our democracy was founded on the principle of a two-party system; it simply works better.

Recently our legislative process has been contentious, divisive and generally nonproductive.  Let’s hope experience will ultimately overcome innocence, lessen the emotional intensity and replace it with effectiveness.

Spectacular

On a cold and snowy morning in late January, the Virginia Chamber of Commerce was forced to delay and shorten the program for this year’s Virginia Chamber Day at the Capitol.  Leaving my office, I slogged a couple of slushy blocks on foot to Richmond’s Omni Hotel.  The weather was anything but spectacular.

Inside the warmth of the hotel, I was pleased to see that attendance had held up pretty well.  A couple of hundred stalwarts from the business community were gathered, some in wet shoes and others in duck boots, for a luncheon keynote address by Gov. Terry McAuliffe.

Not unlike other successful politicians, our new governor can be substantially more engaging in a one-on-one conversation than from behind the podium.  Still, with the ugly 2013 election
largely behind us, McAuliffe now exudes a good deal more confidence as a governor than perhaps he did as a candidate — this is a good thing.

Our new governor extolled his “spectacular” secretarial appointments as a diverse crowd, mixing reappointments like Ric Brown, secretary of finance, with new faces, like Maurice Jones, secretary of commerce and trade.  As promised, the cabinet picks also come from across party lines — this also is a good thing.

McAuliffe extolled the “spectacular” assets of Virginia.  By my count the governor used the word spectacular more often than any other — at least five times in his first five minutes behind the podium. In concluding his remarks, he promised to be the commonwealth’s best salesman.  After all, he said, “I’m experienced at raising money!”

McAuliffe says he’s working hard across party lines to find common ground, finding what folks agree on and vowing to move forward.  Breakfast meetings every day at the Executive Mansion, receptions every night.  Rumors are that he’s thrown out the cheap booze and replaced it with the good stuff, paying out of his own pocket.  Given the allegations of past shenanigans at the Mansion, it’s good to have a guv who can do things on his own dime.

Still, it’s going to take more than throwing out bad whiskey to solve some of the problems faced by this year’s General Assembly. The fight over Medicaid expansion has opened a rift between the Republican establishment and the business community.  On one hand, the R’s are hewing to the anti-Washington party line that government can’t be trusted to pay for the expansion.  On the other hand, the business community knows that they’ve traditionally shouldered a disproportionate share of health-care spending.  Lack of Medicaid expansion has already cost Virginia at least $800 million in federal reimbursements through the remainder of the current budget cycle ending June 30.  This money cannot be recouped.

Furthermore, the Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association estimates Virginia’s hospitals face an additional funding gap of more than $1 billion during the next two years because of  reductions in federal reimbursements if Medicaid is not expanded. 

It’s not as if Virginia doesn’t already rely on federal money for much of its economic health. When defense cuts are announced, politicians join hands across all party lines to help persuade Washington to spare the ax.  Whether it is entitlement spending, like Social Security, or defense contracts, we have long accepted federal money in a variety of ways without a litmus test for future solvency.

It’s also not as if Virginia is already overly generous in its support of Medicaid reimbursement. Virginia ranks 47th in the country in Medicaid services to people with intellectual and developmental disabilities and 48th in overall per-capita Medicaid spending.

This year’s General Assembly session is scheduled to end on March 8; with a special session it can be expected to conclude sometime in April.

Using recent years as an example, balancing the state budget will require monumental legislative effort.  By any measure, the millions (or billions!) in Federal Medicaid reimbursement could go a long way to helping Virginia with other priorities. Turning down these dollars only serves to subsidize programs in other states who accept them.

Medicaid expansion was a centerpiece of candidate McAuliffe’s economic plan for Virginia. Now that the election has been won, the governor’s challenge is to gain passage in a deeply partisan general assembly.

Success would be good for both parties — nothing short of spectacular.

Best places

Long ago, I ran barefoot in the summer down the path through the woods along Reedy Creek to a place we neighborhood kids called Big Rock.  The water flowed over a large stone, leaving a still pool where we floated homemade toy boats.

In my twenties, there was a small pond on a college friend’s family property on Big Lake in Northern Minnesota.  He and his mother worked together to build a short trail through the wetlands and spruce trees behind the pond.  I visited there again a couple of years ago.  It is still a very special place.

More recently, another friend and I stopped in Lexington after a day of shooting sporting clays to visit a fishing spot on the Maury River. The water flowed behind a cabin he lived in while going to law school at Washington and Lee.

I will always remember walking along the Pedlar River near Amherst with my father and brother, feeling the cork handle of a fly rod in my hand, testing our mink-oiled leather boots where the trail crossed the stream, hoping our feet stayed dry.

Everyone has memories of their best places.  More often than not, they aren’t just about the places themselves, but about the people we shared them with.

Our best places aren’t always outdoors.  In fact, some of them may not be places at all in the strict sense of the word. They may also be places where we have worked.  After all, we spend about a third of our adult life at work.

At its best, work can be a lot like play.  Remember that acquisition team you worked on in the 1990s?  It really was the people, the quality of the work, drinks and dinner at the end of the day, the camaraderie, a sense of building something bigger that made the work special.

Sometimes, it’s the advice you get from people, the lessons learned, that make a place memorable.  Like the time an early boss said, “Be patient; when better results come, we’ll enjoy them more,” or “Have the courage to be clear; people don’t do well with subtle signals.”

Best places create memories.  Hopefully, we can all recall that time or place or that person or group of people when things crystalized with a sense of opportunity, camaraderie and accomplishment.

Greatness doesn’t happen by chance.  Leadership plays a big role.  How can we create an environment where people feel a part of something larger than just their own effort? 
Leadership is different from management.  Management is focused on gaining compliance.  Leadership is about creating commitment.  A common thread in best places is that people feel committed to one another and share common beliefs that can lead to surprisingly great results.

Leaders are passionate about their organizations.  Their passion is apparent when they talk about the future.  They do this in a way that makes it clear the future can be much better than the present.  Imagine an organization where passion isn’t present.  What are the chances that growth will occur?  Passionate leadership unlocks the individual and collective power of employees, engaging them in creating a future that is much brighter than the present.

On Page 20 of this issue you will find our fourth annual list of Best Places to Work in Virginia.  These organizations have top-notch people and make it a priority to keep them.  “People” is the operative word; they are not just employees.  Companies that make our Best Places list find innovative ways to engage their folks, treating them as individuals, not as hired help.

So as you read these pages, give some thought to what’s working in your organization and what’s not.  Listening and learning from others is a great way to get better.  Coming out of a recession, this could be a real turnaround opportunity. 

We can all get better at creating great places.  It may not be quite the same as childhood, but business success also creates lasting friendships and great memories.

It is still early in the year, so here’s to our Best Places to Work in Virginia and the chance to build on their success in 2014!

Redistricting, why wait?

“If mandate of one-person-one vote was the generational issue of the 1960s, then eliminating political gerrymandering may be the issue of our time.” So says A.E. Dick Howard, constitutional scholar and professor of law at the University of Virginia.

Here’s why:

In last November’s statewide elections, 43 of the commonwealth’s 100 House of Delegates races were uncontested; another 13 elections were not contested by major party candidates.  As dismal as this sounds, it was only the second time in the last decade that more than half of Virginia’s 100 House seats faced contested races. 
Despite unhappiness with those elected to office, voters don’t have much choice when it comes to replacing them. One might conclude that there simply isn’t enough interest in public service, that fundraising and campaigns are simply too hard, or that annual pay of $17,640 for a member of the House of Delegates simply isn’t worth the effort.

House races are held every two years. Voter turnout is in the low 40 percent range when an election is accompanied by a governor’s race, but otherwise falls to the low 30 percent range.  On the other hand, turnout for presidential elections in Virginia exceeds 70 percent.

The reason we have uncompetitive races is that we have uncompetitive voting districts.  Boundaries are set once every 10 years (most recently in 2011) by the General Assembly after the release of population counts by the U.S. Census.  Growth in data on voters and their habits has enabled legislators — particularly those in power — to choose voters by how district lines are drawn.  These lines help ensure re-election and protect party power.

Virginia has a long history of voter suppression.  For much of the modern era, the commonwealth was essentially a one-party state with Democrats (conservatives back then) holding nearly all offices.  The Federal Voting Rights Act of 1965 changed this by eliminating poll taxes, other registration requirements and mandating that districts be drawn as equally as practical to ensure the fairness of “one person, one vote.”

The Constitution of Virginia as amended and adopted in 1971 additionally required voting districts to be “compact and contiguous.”
Currently, 21 U.S. states use nonpartisan or bipartisan commissions to draw voting districts.  In 2009, Gov. Bob McDonnell’s campaign platform included support for a nonpartisan commission, and he appointed an advisory commission in 2011.  In 2012, the Virginia Senate unanimously approved a proposal for a bipartisan redistricting commission to be appointed by the state Supreme Court. A similar House bill failed to make it past a subcommittee, effectively killing the legislation. 

Gov.-elect Terry McAuliffe announced support for nonpartisan redistricting in a recent appearance before the Virginia League of Women Voters, a
longtime advocate of such reform.

But change won’t come easily. It requires an amendment to the Virginia Constitution. An amendment begins with a bill being passed by the Virginia General Assembly, followed by a statewide election for the House of Delegates.  An identical bill must then be passed by the next assembly. Finally, amendments must go before voters in a statewide referendum.  If such legislation were successful in 2014, the earliest it could be put to a statewide vote would be 2016.

State Sen. John C. Miller of Newport News has prepared a bill that could put a bipartisan redistricting commission on the ballot in 2014.  Nonetheless, as currently written, the results of this referendum “shall be advisory only,” thus stalling constitutional reform until at least  2018.  Before long it will be 2020, new census data will be collected and the party bosses will have another chance to pick their voters.

One Virginia 2021: Citizens for Fair Redistricting is an organization being led by Charlottesville lawyer Leigh  Middleditch with help from Bob Gibson, executive director of the Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership, among others.  Many community leaders, including James Ukrop and E. Bryson Powell of Richmond and Judy Ford Wason of Williamsburg have worked to promote nonpartisan redistricting for years. Yet a lack of success in getting the General Assembly to give up control has made fundraising a challenge.

Another route to solve political fixing is through the courts.  Seven lawsuits have been filed since 2011.  Some have been withdrawn but potentially could be refiled.  

There have been several such suits since the constitutional reform of 1971. In general, the Supreme Court of Virginia has been reluctant to enforce the mandate that districts should be compact and contiguous.  Perhaps the arguments have been poorly reasoned.

The problem with a court-mandated solution is that it would only put the process back into the hands of legislators to come up with a short-term remedy.  Only constitutional reform can bring about a permanent solution. According to Middleditch, “One Virginia 2021 has no illusions about the difficulty; it is a long-term process.”

At Virginia Business, we say, “Why wait?”  If the General Assembly wants to pursue fairness and put aside partisanship, then pass a bill in 2014 to start the process of constitutional reform.  The closer we get to 2021, the more difficult it will be for legislators to give up the power to pick voters.  Let’s do the right thing now.

Don’t mistake politics for business

The sky’s been falling in Dee Cee for a while now.  We’ve been sequestered, jumped over the fiscal cliff, shut down, debt ceilinged, Obamacared and so on.  Interestingly, all of this political woe really hasn’t mattered much on Wall Street.  In fact, just the opposite is true.

When talk of lower government spending turns toward the possibility of the Federal Reserve backing away from its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases, it sends shudders through the markets.  Businesses benefit from low interest rates.  Government spending creates jobs helping to drive consumer spending.  Though politically unpopular, this is apparently the new normal for economic stability.

The irony is that what makes sense personally is often different from what makes sense politically.  Neither our pocketbooks nor our politics follow the same calculus as business profits.

Equating politics and business should lead to the conclusion that the sky has been falling both in Dee Cee and on Wall Street, something that clearly hasn’t been happening.  The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average have been hitting record highs in recent months.  Going back over two years, a time before sequestration, the S&P 500 has risen more than 40 percent — not a bad return for 24 months, during a time when many have assumed that political instability should imply economic uncertainty.

Looking at Virginia’s 15 largest public companies between November 2011 and November 2013, only one of them dropped in share price, and the unweighted average share price gain for the group was about 40 percent, roughly even with the S&P 500.

Of special note is Smithfield Foods, which exited the ranks of Virginia’s public companies in September after being bought by Shuanghui International Holdings Ltd.  Nevertheless, Smithfield’s stock rose over 50 percent during its last two years of public trading.

Shares of Leidos Holdings Inc. are a bit more complicated.  The company formerly known as SAIC underwent a spin-off and 1-to-4 reverse stock split in September.  Accounting for the split and adding back the spinoff, the pro forma combined Leidos/SAIC price per share has gone up a bit over 50 percent in the past 24 months.

Alpha Natural Resources the only company in Virginia’s top 15 to decline in value over the past two years, plummeted by 70 percent.  Increased environmental regulation, lower foreign demand for metallurgical coal and an increased supply of lower priced shale gas have combined to dampen share prices across the entire coal sector.

Genworth’s share price gain of 100 percent over the past two years makes it the leader among Virginia’s top 15 public companies.  New CEO Tom McInerney shelved a planned IPO for the company’s Australian mortgage insurer and cut costs. At the same time the company has benefited from increasing pricing power for long-term care insurance and a recovery in the U.S. mortgage insurance market.

Similarly, Northrop Grumman has seen it’s share price rise by more than 90 percent since last 2011.  No doubt, sequestration has been difficult, but it hasn’t done much to impair the value of this company or for that matter any of the largest government contractors in Virginia.

This brings me back to politics and business.  Despite ongoing saber rattling about government bond ratings, confidence in markets, and the reputation of our democracy, business seems to be doing okay.  The Great Recession officially ended in June 2009. Recessions are defined by economic measures, not political ones.  Though the U.S. political environment remains embarrassingly choked by partisanship, business earnings continue to improve and opportunities exist for those willing to seize them.

As mentioned, low interest rates are good for business.  A recent Bloomberg News article on cable-magnate John Malone quoted him as saying, “A combination of cheap money and a gloomy view of the future gives rise to opportunity for those who aren’t quite so gloomy.”  That’s’ a pretty good description of what opportunity looks like these days.  It’s something that can be missed by clinging to a pessimistic view of business conditions.

Economic ups and downs tend to run in about 10-year cycles.  With the last recession ending in mid-2009, we are somewhere around half-way to the next peak.  Looking at the recent results of Virginia’s top companies, things are better than they seem.  As we approach 2014 politics may continue to disappoint, but business is doing just fine.

To his excellency, the governor, whoever you are

Good morning!  Depending on when you are reading this, the governor’s race is over or soon will be.  It’s time to take a look in the mirror and slap yourself on the face!  Whether the visage you see staring back is kind of swarthy in a Nixon-like way, or just plain goofy Clintonesque, it’s time to wake up.

No more negativity, you’ve got to get yourself in shape.  You’ve only got four years.  If you can’t do yourself some good, how do you expect to help Virginia?

Don’t tell us that you are going to free us from federal regulation, that was voted down in 2008 and 2012 (didn’t we also lose that fight 150 years ago?), and don’t tell us that you are going to turn us over to Big Labor.  I mean who do you think you are anyway, the next Hillary?

No, there’s not time to worry about your hair! Let’s get to work on Virginia.  There are potholes to be filled, and that takes money.  I’m not just talking about some walnut-game slight of hand over changing gas taxes or selling liquor stores.  We’re talking real accomplishments!

This is where you get to find out that doing the real work of the governor’s office is a lot harder than just talking about it.  (Hint: the real work isn’t just planning for your next gig fours years from now.)

Lets forget the culture wars.  The rest of the nation is rapidly leaving us behind on multiple issues — medical  marijuana, LGBT rights and women’s issues.   Despite your expertise on all medical, scientific and economic matters, there are definitely places politicians should stay away from. Let’s not even go there …

Here are a few places where you might be able to make a lasting difference:

Gubernatorial succession — Virginia is the only state that doesn’t allow its governor to run for a second consecutive term. It’s time to give up being last. Ever since Appomattox, we’ve clung to lost causes.  Face up to it!  Tough challenges take more than four years.

No one can say that you will support this change out of self-interest.  It takes constitutional reform, a majority vote by both houses in two sessions of the General Assembly with a statewide election in between and then a statewide referendum.  That can’t even happen until well after the end of your term.

Go for it!  Help Virginia accomplish the strategic things that take longer than four years.  A second term doesn’t give the governor’s office too much power.  If some future stumblebums fail in their first four years, we can still vote them out.

Nonpartisan redistricting — Believe it or not, everyone realizes the fox is in the henhouse.  It’s time to let voters start picking candidates instead of candidates picking voters.

The three C’s of redistricting — compactness, contiguousness and community of interests — need to be equally applied.  No, it’s not about party power; it’s about community interests.  The extremism promulgated by the current process prohibits compromise, killing the art of statesmanship.  We all know this.

Other states have adopted nonpartisan redistricting.  Virginia should do this, too.   Be a proactive leader.  This comes up again after the 2020 census.  The longer you wait, the more political it becomes.

Education — This business of reducing state spending per student on education to a fraction of what it was just a few years ago has got to stop.  We don’t want to reduce Virginia to the dumb-as-a-box-of-rocks status of lesser spending states in the Deep South.

Building a high-quality workforce is the key to economic development.  Education on all levels is a necessity.  Virginia has a rich educational heritage.  Don’t keep starving schools while demanding that tuitions be kept low.  Yes, the cost of higher education has risen — but what do you think the cost of a loaf of bread, a gallon of gas, or the minimum wage was 30 years ago?

Speaking of gasoline, the work is far from done on transportation — The so-called historic legislation of 2013 doesn’t come anywhere near funding the infrastructure needs of the commonwealth.  Don’t think for a moment that this problem is solved.  Go out and find real money.  Don’t make this a résumé builder; get something real done.

Don’t keep trying to sell off state assets like ports and liquor stores to find short-term cash for government.  Few, if any, of these deals have shown a genuine benefit to citizens, and too many of them seem designed to curry potential favor with future campaign donors.

Oh, and guns — By now, I think that everybody who wants one probably already has one, so let’s leave that topic alone, too.
I know you want to “dance with the girl that brung ya,” but really, this ain’t the prom.

Will either candidate motivate disenchanted voters?

So suddenly, things all change.  In mid-September Ken Cuccinelli was trailing in most of the polls for the governor’s race.  Most, except for the RRR poll, which stands for Republican Republican Republican and bills itself as a GOP polling firm, run by Republicans for Republicans.

The RRR, described by some as a “mock polling company,” was created by the Cuccinelli campaign in response to established polls whose results were less favorable to their candidate.  The RRR’s purported results definitely have the air of satire, claiming a margin of error of “+/- 0.00%.”  Is this a joke? Really?  The saying goes, “You can’t make this stuff up!” Well, apparently you can.

The “truth-o-meter” has been a bit out of sorts lately, with candidates from both parties seemingly oblivious to the factual nature of their campaign trail claims.  Sadly, the underlying assumption is that voters aren’t smart enough or don’t care enough to separate fact from fiction.  Apparently today’s perceived path to political victory lies at the intersection of thinly disguised satire and outright fiction.

Go ahead and say that I can’t take a joke; tell me this is gonzo politics at its best.  Maybe I’m too conservative and expect something more.  Maybe I’m elitist, thinking that higher standards should prevail.

I really struggle with the thought that votes can be won on dubious economic promises with the reward being a a chance to legislate a party-centric agenda.  Even so, in this  governor’s race positive campaign promises are completely overwhelmed by negative messages.  Both campaigns have focused on total destruction of their opposition.

There’s certainly nothing new about negative campaigns.  My earliest memory of political ads goes back to the 1964 presidential race.  Conservative Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater from Arizona ran against Democrat Lyndon Johnson, who had become president less than a year earlier following the assassination of JFK.

The Johnson campaign gave heavy airtime to an overly dramatic television spot showing the East Coast of the U.S. being sawed off the map and floating out to sea, claiming that’s what would happen to our interests if Goldwater won the election.  Another spot called “Daisy Girl” predicted nuclear war if Goldwater was elected.

The voiceover at the end of most of Johnson’s ads said, “Vote for President Johnson on Nov. 3. The stakes are too high for you to stay home.”  Johnson won in a landslide victory with more than 61.1 percent of the vote.  More than 60 percent of eligible voters cast ballots.

The last time that voter turnout in a Virginia gubernatorial race exceeded 60 percent was 20 years ago in the race between Republican George Allen and Democrat Mary Sue Terry.  Allen won with a convincing 58 percent of the vote, ending a 12-year hold on the Executive Mansion by Democrats.

More recently, turnout in the commonwealth’s governors’ races has been in the low 40 percent range, with the conventional wisdom being that lower turnout favors Republican candidates.  In recent years, the

Republican majority in the General Assembly has worked hard to enact new voter identification laws that might further restrict access to the polls.

The amount of negativity in this year’s race has led many to conclude that they aren’t happy with McAuliffe or Cuccinelli.  I’ve had conversations with voters from both parties who say they won’t vote for either candidate.  If turnout is low because of an unusually high degree of candidate dissatisfaction among Republicans, conventional wisdom predicting a GOP victory could be proven wrong.

As the election nears, both candidates are trying belatedly to bring some balance to their campaigns with more positive messages regarding education and economic development.  The credibility of these messages, however, remains tarnished by negative ads that have left voters understandably skeptical of any claims made by either side.

One might conclude that negative campaigning is an unavoidable necessity, but this may simply be self-justification. 

In 2012, Tim Kaine’s messages in his U.S. Senate race against George Allen were largely positive.  Kaine took the high road and won by a margin of 4.9 percent, while Obama’s margin of victory over Romney in

Virginia during the same election came in a full point lower at 3.9 percent.

It is indeed unfortunate that enthusiasm for the candidates in this year’s governor’s race appears to be in short supply. Still, the 1964 campaign axiom rings loud and true — the stakes are too high for you to stay home.

November’s election – a perfect storm

I haven’t seen them myself, but I’ve heard reports of bumper stickers around town reading “Bill Bolling for Lt. Governor,” with the “Lt.” crossed out and 2013 written over “2009.”  Bolling seems like a new man lately, a bit trimmer and no longer beholden to the McDonnell apparatus that so sadly failed him.

While write-in votes for Bolling likely will be numerous in November’s election, the full-court press of an independent campaign seems unlikely.  Only Virginia and New Jersey have gubernatorial elections in 2013, and Gov. Chris Christie leads by such a wide margin in New Jersey that nearly all national political donations are flowing toward the Old Dominion.

This outside money, well beyond the means of any independent candidate, is grossly inflated by PACs, parties and the fundraising wiles of professional pols. I wish I could call it smart money, but the 2013 governor’s race in Virginia is looking just about anything but smart at the moment.

I mean, hell’s bells! We’re talking hundreds of thousands of gob-smacking dollars being spent on things like Citizens United’s swift-boat launch of a full-length mockumentary called “Fast Terry.”  I’m sure that the fair and balanced crowd’s paranoid imaginings see this as essential to offset liberal media bias, but they are really only preaching to their own choir.

Out-of-state money is doing a lot more than just driving up the cost of television ad time in Virginia. It also is straining the credibility of political campaigns in ways far worse than previously imagined.  A phrase comes to mind about throwing good money after bad.  We’re seeing a lot of that.

Beyond spending and credibility, the substance of both campaigns has sunk to ridiculous new lows.  Incessant charges and counter-charges ringing Pee-Wee Herman-like “I know you are, but what am I?”  A circular firing squad (providing full employment for fact-checkers) is desperately trying to deflect focus. Finger pointing, and attempts to define opponents with negative ads likely will render anyone still undecided politically tone deaf for the duration.

And it’s not just the case for the top job.  Amid so much controversy that they can’t even support their own ticket mates, Virginia’s tea party-hijacked Republicans really do have their dream team for this year’s election. Republican gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli, known for standing his ground, is a mere piker compared with E.W. Jackson, the candidate for lieutenant governor, in willingness to call a spade a spade.  If an example is ever needed of the likely result of Harvard affirmative action biting the hand that feeds it, Bishop Jackson may be it.

Things aren’t much better on the Democratic side.  Terry McAuliffe is at least somewhat deserving of his carpetbagger status. He may have lived in Fairfax County for more than 20 years, more than many Northern Virginians (or even many folks in Hampton Roads for that matter), but his sensibilities have always been more inside the Beltway than downstate.

From the outside looking in, there’s a distinct lack of ambition among more established Virginia Dems.  Losses in the past couple of state election cycles have thinned their ranks to the point where hanging on to their current seats is difficult enough.

Despite having lost in the statewide Democratic primary four years ago, McAuliffe ought to be given credit for having the ambition to saddle back up for another run.  But then again, he’s reported to have considered running for governor in both Florida and New York.  Still, it’s hard to fault a candidate for being ambitious.

Further down the ballot, Democratic attorney general candidate Mark Herring, from Leesburg, may not have the same name recognition downstate as Republican Mark Obenshain. Obenshain’s, well-remembered father, Richard, chaired the Republican Party of Virginia before his untimely death in a plane crash while campaigning for U.S. Senate in 1978.

On the other hand, Herring should do well in his home territory of Northern Virginia.  Judging from most recent elections, it can be argued that as goes Fairfax, so goes the commonwealth.

That leaves the race for lieutenant governor.  Democrat Ralph Northam is running against Jackson.  Both hail from Hampton Roads, so there is no particular geographic advantage. Jackson’s controversial rhetoric has raised his profile across the state, but not in an entirely positive fashion.  Northam, on the other hand, may have a harder time getting name recognition among voters more focused on the top of the ticket.

Meanwhile on the national front, our Dee Cee politicians are likely to deadlock over debt limits, resulting in a federal government shutdown by the end of this month.  If sequestration has been bad for Virginia, this can only be worse.

Not long ago Virginia’s Democrats seemed to be praying toward Washington, hoping Sen. Mark Warner might make a return run for the governorship.  Now, Republicans are beckoning Bill Bolling to be their savior. Meanwhile, Virginia’s Executive Mansion chef-gate case goes to trial in October.  Sounds like a perfect storm is hitting just before November’s election.

​The unintended consequences of populism

Unfortunately, there is a difference between what’s needed to get elected to office and what’s needed to govern effectively.  Successful candidates can put forward populist positions that appeal to voters’ emotions but that ultimately result in economic policy problems.

In 1993, after a get-tough-on-crime campaign that included abolition of parole, George Allen was elected governor of Virginia.  According to Washington Post reports published 10 years later, the state then spent about a half-billion dollars to build, expand and operate new prisons.  Virginia’s inmate population rose 25 percent from 1994 to 2004, at a time when the state population increased just 15 percent.

The annual cost of incarceration was $22,000 per prisoner.  Fewer resources as a result were allocated to mental health and drug abuse programs aimed at preventing crime.  To be fair, crime rates and recidivism fell after parole was abolished.  Nonetheless, much of the decrease was attributed to an aging population.

Always a popular campaign promise, “Let’s get tough on crime,” was responsible for the election of dozens of politicians nationally during the 1990s.  A recent Wall Street Journal story reported that Georgia, Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, South Carolina and South Dakota, most of which are led by Republican governors, now are looking at sentencing reform to reduce the cost of handling swelling prison populations.

Another example of populism in Virginia was car tax relief, the central tenet of Jim Gilmore’s successful 1997 gubernatorial campaign.  Phased in over five years, the popular “No car tax” plan carried cost estimates as high as $2.8 billion.  Because of budget pressures, the General Assembly ultimately capped car tax relief at $950 million in 2002.

Though other factors, including a poor economy, came into play, every governor since Gilmore has struggled to close significant budget deficits.  Promising to eliminate the car tax may have won votes, but it hurt the state’s ability to cover the cost of transportation, public education and other basic services.

On a national level, immigration policy has recently taken center stage.  Populist demands to protect jobs through tougher border security come at a high cost.  Alternatively, adding undocumented workers to the tax rolls could significantly increase revenue.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the immigration reform bill recently passed by the U.S. Senate would generate $300 billion in net revenue from income and payroll taxes during the next decade.  When it comes to the cost of border security, the Government Accountability Office estimates the cost of pedestrian fencing to be between $400,000 and $15 million per mile!

Another example: The current emphasis on STEM-H (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math and Health) education programs is often anecdotally justified by comments that many graduates in these programs at U.S. colleges are foreign-born.  This plays into multiple xenophobic sentiments reminiscent of the Cold War.  

Likewise, several reports on the proposed acquisition of Virginia-based Smithfield Foods by Shuanghui International Holdings Ltd. mention concerns over Chinese investment in the U.S.  Never mind that foreign direct investment in other countries by the U.S. totaled $351.4 billion in 2012, compared with only $62.4 billion by China, according to the international Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The U.S. is by far the world leader in foreign direct investment.  If we believe in a level playing field, it is hypocritical to criticize China and other countries for similar actions. It is a simple truth that the world is a global marketplace.  Protectionism is widely regarded to be bad economic policy.

Let’s recap.  Populist sentiments have proven appeal on the campaign trail.  Yet the policy decisions that deliver on such rhetoric can have bad consequences.  As we look toward November’s elections, let’s be mindful that votes can have unintended results.  Let’s hope that our candidates also realize that governing is about more than popularity. 

 

The unintended consequences of populism

Unfortunately, there is a difference between what’s needed to get elected to office and what’s needed to govern effectively.  Successful candidates can put forward populist positions that appeal to voters’ emotions but that ultimately result in economic policy problems.

In 1993, after a get-tough-on-crime campaign that included abolition of parole, George Allen was elected governor of Virginia.  According to Washington Post reports published 10 years later, the state then spent about a half-billion dollars to build, expand and operate new prisons.  Virginia’s inmate population rose 25 percent from 1994 to 2004, at a time when the state population increased just 15 percent.

The annual cost of incarceration was $22,000 per prisoner.  Fewer resources as a result were allocated to mental health and drug abuse programs aimed at preventing crime.  To be fair, crime rates and recidivism fell after parole was abolished.  Nonetheless, much of the decrease was attributed to an aging population.

Always a popular campaign promise, “Let’s get tough on crime,” was responsible for the election of dozens of politicians nationally during the 1990s.  A recent Wall Street Journal story reported that Georgia, Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, South Carolina and South Dakota, most of which are led by Republican governors, now are looking at sentencing reform to reduce the cost of handling swelling prison populations.

Another example of populism in Virginia was car tax relief, the central tenet of Jim Gilmore’s successful 1997 gubernatorial campaign.  Phased in over five years, the popular “No car tax” plan carried cost estimates as high as $2.8 billion.  Because of budget pressures, the General Assembly ultimately capped car tax relief at $950 million in 2002.

Though other factors, including a poor economy, came into play, every governor since Gilmore has struggled to close significant budget deficits.  Promising to eliminate the car tax may have won votes, but it hurt the state’s ability to cover the cost of transportation, public education and other basic services.

On a national level, immigration policy has recently taken center stage.  Populist demands to protect jobs through tougher border security come at a high cost.  Alternatively, adding undocumented workers to the tax rolls could significantly increase revenue.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the immigration reform bill recently passed by the U.S. Senate would generate $300 billion in net revenue from income and payroll taxes during the next decade.  When it comes to the cost of border security, the Government Accountability Office estimates the cost of pedestrian fencing to be between $400,000 and $15 million per mile!

Another example: The current emphasis on STEM-H (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math and Health) education programs is often anecdotally justified by comments that many graduates in these programs at U.S. colleges are foreign-born.  This plays into multiple xenophobic sentiments reminiscent of the Cold War. 

Likewise, several reports on the proposed acquisition of Virginia-based Smithfield Foods by Shuanghui International Holdings Ltd. mention concerns over Chinese investment in the U.S.  Never mind that foreign direct investment in other countries by the U.S. totaled $351.4 billion in 2012, compared with only $62.4 billion by China, according to the international Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The U.S. is by far the world leader in foreign direct investment.  If we believe in a level playing field, it is hypocritical to criticize China and other countries for similar actions. It is a simple truth that the world is a global marketplace.  Protectionism is widely regarded to be bad economic policy.

Let’s recap.  Populist sentiments have proven appeal on the campaign trail.  Yet the policy decisions that deliver on such rhetoric can have bad consequences.  As we look toward November’s elections, let’s be mindful that votes can have unintended results.  Let’s hope that our candidates also realize that governing is about more than popularity.