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Fed Fifth District economy shrinks slightly

The economy in the Federal Reserve’s Fifth District (a multistate region including Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, West Virginia and Maryland) has contracted slightly since March, according to the latest edition of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, released Wednesday.

Published eight times per year, the Beige Book is based on anecdotal information about economic conditions gathered from the 12 Federal Reserve Banks. It is compiled from reports by bank and branch directors, as well as information gathered from business contacts, economists, market experts and other sources.

Here’s what the April 19 Beige Book edition revealed about the direction the economy is taking:

Manufacturing activity softened as manufacturers had fewer new orders, and customers began pushing back on price increases as supply chain pressures eased. Employers continued to struggle to find skilled workers.

Travel and tourism spending increased moderately in the region. The sector saw strong revenue growth, with hotels reporting increases in the number of rooms sold and higher room rates compared with last year. In February, Virginia hotel revenues were 14.9% higher than those recorded in February 2019.

Ports and trucking companies in the Fifth District reported declining freight volumes, especially in imports of retail goods and household items. Exports of loaded containers were stronger, though, particularly in auto and machine parts. Empty containers remained at ports slightly longer.

Because shipping carriers had excess availability, their spot rates fell to pre-pandemic levels or below, significantly under contract rates. Airfreight rates stabilized as airlines pulled back on freight capacity, according to the Fed.

Trucking companies saw a moderate decline in freight volumes and received some customer pushback on continued rate increases. Firms continued to add drivers but scaled back recruiting because of the lowered freight volumes. The supply of new tractors and trailers improved.

The Fifth District’s employment increased slightly compared with its March report, although respondents reported a continued lack of qualified workers. Wages increased modestly, partly because Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C., increased minimum wages.

Prices in the region continued to grow at a strong rate, the Fed reported. Manufacturers reported average price increases of about 5.5%, down from the 2022 peak, and service sector firms reported prices increases of about 6.5%, a near-peak rate.

Retail activity remained strong, although firms reported slightly lower sales and demand. Some retailers said they expected business to pick up soon, as their busy seasons started in April.

The typical spring housing market did not appear. Sales and pending sales in the Fifth District residential real estate market declined, and sales prices remained flat, although respondents began seeing new contracts at less than list price. Housing inventory has decreased year-over-year, and new listings have dramatically decreased. Although construction costs were down, builders did not buy new lots because of economic uncertainty.

Commercial real estate activity declined overall last month, particularly in the office market. Retail and industrial/flex space leasing, however, remained strong, and the industrial sector had higher rental rates. Sales slowed due to rising interest rates, and some banks stopped lending for new commercial construction projects or tightened underwriting standards.

Demand for all types of loans slowed modestly, but the commercial loan portfolio was the weakest. The region saw mixed demand from consumers, but demand for home equity and used auto loans increased some.

Deposit levels declined slightly, although some banks had an inflow of deposits following Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. Financial institutions expected loan and deposit levels to decline moderately for the rest of the year, according to the Fed.

Governor would delay subminimum wage ban for disabled workers

RICHMOND, Va. ‒ Gov. Glenn Youngkin recently recommended the General Assembly accept an amended version of a bill that ends the practice of paying subminimum wage to certain Virginia workers with disabilities.

A certificate exemption under the federal Fair Labor Standards Act allows employers to determine pay for disabled workers based on a productivity calculation compared to other employees, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. These workers are currently listed within the “tipped employees” section of state code.

The original House Bill 1924 eliminated use of the certificate and increased minimum hourly pay to $9.50 in July. This rate would continue to increase incrementally until 2027, when it reached Virginia minimum wage. The slow increase is meant to help employers adjust, according to Del. Patrick Hope, D-Arlington, who introduced the measure.

Hope’s bill passed the House unanimously on a block vote, meaning it was not discussed prior to voting. The bill passed the Senate 22-18.

The governor’s proposed amendment adjusts timelines. It would remove the incremental pay bumps of the original bill. Instead, the wages of all previously exempt employees would be raised to Virginia’s minimum wage when use of the certificates ended in 2030.

Any currently certified employer would be grandfathered in until 2030, but no new certificates would be issued after July 1.

The national average for workers being paid subminimum wage is $3.34 an hour, according to the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights 2020 report.

“I don’t know how anybody could pay that and look themselves in the mirror,” said Sen. Richard Saslaw, D-Fairfax, when speaking to the Senate. “That’s disgusting. And there’s no other way to describe that.”

Disabled workers can encounter long Labor Department processing times that prevent them from getting back pay owed due to incorrectly calculated wages, according to a study by the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

The certificates gave disabled workers “an entry point” into the workforce in the 1930s, said Jewelyn Cosgrove, Melwood’s vice president of government and public relations. Such exemptions need to be reevaluated through a modern lens, she said.

Melwood is a nonprofit organization that provides jobs and opportunities for people with disabilities, according to its website. It held a certificate until 2014, Cosgrove said.

Disabled workers have access to more jobs these days, versus when it used to be “get a job, any job,” Cosgrove said.

“People with disabilities should be and can be engaged in the workforce in meaningful ways in the careers of their choosing,” Cosgrove said.

There are six employers in Virginia with active certificates as of January. These employers pay at least 286 total workers subminimum wage, according to the Labor Department. Four more employers in Virginia are pending approval for their certificates.

Active certificates are down 46% since 2018, according to a study by the Association of People Supporting Employment First. The same study found employment of disabled workers is on the rise across multiple states.

“I would never, ever accept a job where I was making $3 an hour,” said Virginia APSE lobbyist Matthew Shapiro. “You wouldn’t do that, so why is it OK for us to do that to more vulnerable … folks than me?”

Shapiro was born with cerebral palsy, a condition that affects almost every part of his life, he said. He is the founder and CEO of the consulting firm 6 Wheels Consulting.

Resources such as job coaches, at-home work and self-employment render the certificate exemption no longer necessary, Shapiro said.

“What kind of Virginia do we want to be?” Shapiro said. “Do we want to be one that pays people fairly for the work that they do, and at good wages? Or are we OK saying we’re going to pay somebody $10 a week?”

Thirteen states already have legislation in place to prevent employers from paying subminimum wage, according to the APSE study. Reforms are also being attempted at the federal level.

“This is a very demoralizing issue, and it shouldn’t really be an issue in the 21st century,” said Charlotte Woodward, the National Down Syndrome Society’s education program associate.

Woodward was born with Down syndrome, she said. Her advocacy work is important to her because she believes disabled voices provide needed visibility, she said.

“The doctor told my mom I would never learn to read or write,” Woodward said. “That, when I grew up, I would work in a sheltered workshop.”

A sheltered workshop is traditionally defined as a supervised workplace for adults who have a physical or intellectual disability.

“Of course, my mom didn’t take those words to heart,” Woodward added.

Opponents of the bill question if sheltered workshops and subminimum wage are harmful to disabled workers. Sen. Thomas Norment, R-James City County, spoke to the Senate about the disabled son of his former administrative assistant.

“He never once, never once, mentioned how much he was paid or what the compensation was,” Norment said. “It was the intangible reward and satisfaction and fulfillment of his day that he got going to work.”

Sen. Jill Vogel, R-Fauquier, also opposed the bill. It would take away opportunities for employers to provide “a haven, a place, a job for people where they do not pay them minimum wage,” she said.

Almost all of the workers originally employed under Melwood’s former certificate are still employed by the organization, but now at “full wage,” Cosgrove said.

“It’s about recognizing that our employees’ voices, and their desire for that full wage, brought that dignity — brought that stability,” Cosgrove said. “It improved our employee morale immediately.”

To assume disabled workers will thrive in sheltered production does not account for individual ability and interest, said Tonya Milling, executive director of The Arc of Virginia.

“Think of it as the same way you approach things in your own life,” Milling said. “When I looked for a job, I looked for something that matched my skills, matched my abilities and could hold my interest.”

Shapiro sympathized with concerns over disabled workers and their well-being.

“There is a ‘dignity of risk’ argument that can be made here,” Shapiro said. “Are we going to allow [them] to go out into the world and break a nail? Or are we going to keep [them] in a bubble their entire lives?”

The Virginia Department of Aging and Rehabilitative Services plans to aid transitioning employers with nearly $14 million in provided federal funding, according to the Disability Law Center of Virginia.

Youngkin’s amendment, in addition to codifying the funds, would require DARS to report to the governor’s office in 2024 about the transition away from certificates.

Lawmakers will vote on Youngkin’s changes when they reconvene on April 12.

Capital News Service is a program of Virginia Commonwealth University’s Robertson School of Media and Culture. Students in the program provide state government coverage for a variety of media outlets in Virginia.

Va. bills advance to halt minimum wage increases

RICHMOND, Va. – Two bills introduced by Republicans to halt future minimum wage increases have advanced to the House floor.

Minimum wage in Virginia increased to $11 an hour on Jan. 1 and is set to increase to $12 next January.

The House Commerce and Energy committee approved House Bill 320, introduced by Del. Nicholas J. Freitas, R-Culpeper, and HB 296, introduced by Del. Joseph P. McNamara, R-Roanoke. Both bills would eliminate scheduled future increases to the current minimum wage law.

McNamara’s bill was amended to include payment for health care benefits as long as the hourly minimum wage is not below $11. Sen. Mark J. Peake, R-Lynchburg, introduced a similar bill in the Senate, which was subsequently shot down by Democrats.

Both House measures advanced out of committee on a 12-9 vote along party lines, with Republicans holding the majority.

“I know what it is to work for minimum wage,” Freitas said during the subcommittee meeting. “In fact, there’s probably a couple times I was working for a little bit less than it; I was actually happy to have that job.”

Increasing the minimum wage would take away people’s ability to bargain with employers for a wage they are willing to accept, according to Freitas.

Freitas said the state government should not “arbitrarily” increase the minimum wage. He told the panel, when asked, that he does not plan on rolling back the current minimum wage, due to recent inflation.

The state’s minimum wage was $7.25 prior to May 1, 2021. This is in line with the federal minimum wage of $7.25, which has not changed since 2009.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released two consumer price index reports in late 2021 that included parts of Virginia. One included the Washington metropolitan area. The other report is for the South region, which includes Virginia.

Consumer price index is a measure of change over time of the prices consumers pay for goods and services. Both reports show the index rising.

The index increased in a year by almost 5.8% in the Washington metropolitan area, according to the BLS report. The index in the South increased by 7.4% in a year.

“When inflation has actually moved a job past a particular level, at that point you’ve negated the own minimum wage raise that you currently have,” Freitas said. “To keep it $11 at this point achieves the objective I’m having.”

Freitas said he questions the idea that a higher minimum wage fosters an environment where people and businesses can create the “maximum amount of jobs that you can get that people would actually want.”

A few House Democrats questioned Freitas as he presented the bill. Del. Jeion A. Ward, D-Hampton, said she believes it would be wrong to end the minimum wage increases. Ward also said she wants the public to have a chance to voice their opinion on the matter.

“When you talk about kitchen table issues, this is what people are talking about at their table,” Ward said. “It’s those small families, those families that work minimum wage, and I don’t think they’re saying, ‘This is too much.’”

The state’s current minimum wage law has a reenactment clause. Next January, the minimum wage automatically bumps up to $12 an hour. However, the General Assembly must pass the measure again prior to July 1, 2024 for the pay increase to $13.50 and then to $15 to remain in effect. Lawmakers could make changes to the bill during the process. The commissioner of Labor and Industry would establish the adjusted state hourly minimum wage if lawmakers fail to pass the bill again.

Kim Bobo, executive director for the Virginia Interfaith Center for Public Policy, spoke against the bill at the subcommittee meeting. One of the main focuses of the center is eliminating poverty, Bobo said.

“The largest number of people and families in poverty have family members who are working, and they frankly just don’t earn enough to get themselves out of poverty,” Bobo said in an interview. “The best way really to tackle that is to raise the minimum wage.”

The Republican Party branded itself as pro-business during the gubernatorial election, Bobo said. However, she believes there’s a “disconnect” between the party and working class families.

“I would think that the Republican Party and the new governor ought to look at these bread-and-butter issues like minimum wage, like paid sick days,” Bobo said.

One percent of hourly workers over the age of 25 earned minimum wage in 2020, according to the latest available data from the BLS. Women were more likely to earn minimum wage than men in 2020.

“I thought Freitas’ main argument that ‘Oh, this is really going to help teenage workers and people get into the workforce’ was really very deceptive in terms of who’s really on minimum wage,” Bobo said.

About 50% of hourly workers earning minimum wage in 2020 were under the age of 25, according to the BLS. Southern states had the highest percentages of people working minimum wage. About 3% of Virginia’s hourly workers earn minimum wage or less.

“A lot of young people are in college,” Bobo said. “If the minimum wage is $15 versus $7.25, there’s a huge difference in terms of their ability to make their ends meet.”

The House gave both bills a first reading on Jan. 27. If either bill passed in the House, Bobo said she is convinced the measure would die in the majority Democratic Senate.

“I’m not going through the full-court effort on it,” Bobo said.

Capital News Service is a program of Virginia Commonwealth University’s Robertson School of Media and Culture. Students in the program provide state government coverage for a variety of media outlets in Virginia.