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Tag: unemployment

Va. labor market stayed strong in February

Virginia’s labor market remained strong in February, although growth is slowing, according to employment data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Virginia had a net gain of 3,200 jobs in February. The Virginia state government employment was previously 12,000 jobs below the February 2020 level, but the state government nearly halved that deficit last month by adding 6,200 jobs becoming the sector with the largest employment increase. Total private employment fell by about 3,000 jobs, however.

The data pointed to slowed job growth. Virginia had stronger job gains in January, with more than 16,000 jobs added that month.

“The gain in February is considerably less than we saw in January, but it may not be altogether a bad thing for the overall economy and the inflation situation,” Richmond Fed Regional Economist Joe Mengedoth said Friday. “Slower job growth and less turnover should help ease pressure on wages, and then in turn, overall inflation.”

Two private sectors added jobs: Health care added 2,200 jobs, and transportation and warehousing added 1,000, according to Mengedoth. The Virginia Employment Commission adds utilities to its categorization of the transportation sector and counted 1,100 new jobs in trade, transportation and utilities.

The professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and construction industries shed jobs last month. The administrative and support subsector accounted for most of the 2,600 jobs lost in the professional and business services sector.

In January, the quits rate in Virginia fell to 2.3%, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. That’s the lowest level since February 2021, close to the pre-pandemic rate, Mengedoth said.

Although Virginia employers saw less turnover in January, the labor market remains tight, Mengedoth said. Job openings haven’t dropped significantly, and there are more than two job openings per unemployed person seeking a job.

In February, Virginia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.2%, according to VEC data released Friday.

The Virginia labor force participation rate — the proportion of the civilian population ages 16 and older that is employed or actively looking for work — ticked up in January and February and is almost equal to the pre-pandemic rate, Mengedoth said. In February, Virginia’s labor force participation rate stood at 65.6%, according to the VEC.

Rising inflation doesn’t seem to be having much effect on employment in Virginia, Mengedoth said: “There’s a lot of talk about a possible slowdown, but we haven’t really seen any sort of indicators that are pointing to any kind of recession,” and that seems to hold in the labor market.

Businesses don’t seem to have a large appetite to cut employment, even if business slows, because of the difficulty of recruitment, he added.

Economic growth to continue slowing, ODU experts say

The U.S. economy will continue to slow in the second half of 2022 and a recession is increasingly likely, according to the Old Dominion University’s Dragas Center for Economy Analysis and Policy’s mid-year economic forecast released Friday.

Increases in inflation are expected to slow as well but harden, leaving costs elevated, report Robert McNab and Vinod Agarwal, director and deputy director of the Dragas Center. They forecast that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) will increase at an annual rate of 2.2% this year and that Virginia’s real GDP will increase at an annual rate of 2.4%. Hampton Roads’ real GDP is expected to increase by 2.4% primarily because of anticipated increases in defense spending.

Reductions in government spending, the effects of COVID-19 on supply chains and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine contributed to the 1.5% shrink in real GDP in the first quarter of 2022.

“While we are confident in the ability of the Federal Reserve to adjust its monetary policy in the short term, we are significantly more concerned about the ability of Congress and the administration to seriously tackle the deficit and debt,” says a news release from the Dragas Center.

Despite the slowing of inflation, the economists predict it will be difficult for the Fed to raise the discount rate sufficiently to lower inflation without significantly slowing economic and job growth in the coming months. Also, the report predicts the Consumer Price Index to increase by 6.5% in 2022, and core CPI will increase by 5.5%. Those numbers are expected to continue to increase in 2023 but not as quickly, with the Dragas report expecting a 4.8% rise in CPI next year and core CPI growing by 4.4%.

Mind over matter

In April 2022, inflationary expectations — beliefs among consumers when asked about future costs in a University of Michigan study — reached 5.4%, the highest level since the Great Recession of 2008.

“The danger is that increasing inflationary expectations will become a self-fulfilling prophecy, forcing the Federal Reserve to act even more aggressively and tipping the economy into a recession in the later quarters of 2022,” the Dragas Center reported.

Slowing economic growth will lead to slower growth in individual employment and jobs in the second half of the year, according to the forecast.

The U.S. headline unemployment rate (the rate of unemployment that is based on the number of people who officially say they do not have a job and are looking for work) is expected to average 3.8% in 2022 and increase to 4.1% in 2023, according to the Dragas Center.

In Virginia, which usually has lower unemployment numbers than the national average, the headline unemployment rate will average 3.5% this year and increase to 3.8% in 2023. The Hampton Roads headline unemployment rate is predicted to average 3.3% this year, and the number of civilian jobs are likely to grow by 2.2%. Job quits will remain high through this year but should slow in 2023 as economic growth slows and the risk of recession grows.

As for the Port of Virginia, the Dragas Center forecasts that general cargo tonnage will increase by 8.7% this year, and 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) by 11.8%. The port handled a record amount of TEUs in 2021, so the prediction lines the port up to set another record this year.

The median price of existing residential homes sold in Hampton Roads is expected to continue climbing this year but at a lower rate than seen in 2020 or 2021, the Dragas Center predicts, as rising interest rates dampen demand.

Va. AG hiring staff to target unemployment fraud

Virginia’s attorney general on Thursday announced he has signed an agreement with the Virginia Employment Commission to hire more staff dedicated to investigating and prosecuting fraudulent unemployment claims, a problem that has cost the state more than $100 million since 2020, a report estimates.

According to Attorney General Jason Miyares’ spokeswoman, Victoria LaCivita, his office is hiring staffers to work with localities under the agreement, including attorneys and investigators who will be in a dedicated unit of the attorney general’s office. “We plan to work with state, local and federal officials to prosecute fraud,” she said. “Many of our prosecutors in the major crimes and emerging threats section are cross-designated as special assistant United States attorneys.” The precise number of new hires is still to be determined, LaCivita said.

VEC, which was hit with an avalanche of unemployment requests beginning in March 2020, has struggled to keep up with backlogs of unemployment claims, which led to a lawsuit by several Virginia residents who didn’t receive insurance, as well as state legislature scrutiny. Chronic understaffing, blamed for the backlog, also resulted in about $70 million in fraudulent payments in 2020 and $29 million in the first quarter of 2021, according to a report released by the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC) in November 2021.

JLARC estimated that fraudulent claims in Virginia grew a whopping 440% — from 1.4% of all claims in 2019 to 7.5% in 2020. Another problem was that VEC did not begin using best practices in fraud detection and prevention until 2021, and the majority of JLARC’s numbers in the report were estimates because at least 164,456 potentially fraudulent claims had not been investigated as of October 2021.

Aside from understaffing, the VEC’s modernization of its unemployment claims process has lagged behind schedule, forcing staffers to manually process claims, which JLARC’s report says increases the risk of inaccurate or fraudulent benefit payments. VEC may have incorrectly paid out an estimated $930 million in 2020 and $322 million between January and June 2021, the report says. Most of that was due to overpayments caused mistakenly by claimants, employers or VEC staff, or because of fraud. In several instances last year, VEC shut down its online claims systems, including once in December, specifically to “limit fraud,” requiring claimants to call its hotlines to file.

In February, Gov. Glenn Youngkin announced that as of Jan. 15, the backlog of employment separation reports — documents that are required for claimants to receive unemployment funds — had been reduced by nearly 89% from 246,273 to 27,728, and unpaid pending claims were reduced from 24,887 to 15,846.

“There is a tremendous amount of work to be done to refocus on our customers, the individuals and employers, and get them the resources they need,” VEC Commissioner Carrie Roth said in Thursday’s announcement. “Working with the attorney general’s office, we are increasing our efforts to go after those who are committing fraud and taking from Virginians the benefits they are entitled to receive. This fraudulent activity is frustrating to many Virginians who are already in tough situations, and we are bringing the additional support of the attorney general’s office to hold those committing this crime accountable.”

Youngkin said in his own statement, “When someone commits fraud against the state, they are stealing from all Virginians. When that fraud impacts our unemployment insurance program, it is especially hurting people in need. I am proud of Attorney General Miyares who will take on this important role of fighting fraud and abuse on behalf of all Virginians.”

To report suspected unemployment insurance fraud, visit the VEC’s website.

VEC reduces backlog by 89%

The Virginia Employment Commission has decreased its backlog by nearly 89%, Gov. Glenn Youngkin announced Monday.

The VEC reduced the backlog of employment separation reports from 246,273 to 27,728 and unpaid pending claims from 24,887 to 15,846 claims.

“Virginians deserve an unemployment insurance system that is responsive, efficient and customer focused,” Youngkin said in a statement. “On day one, my administration launched the VEC transformation effort with an initial focus on reducing claims backlogs and we are starting to see encouraging initial results.”

The VEC has been under scrutiny for backlogs of claims during the pandemic.

The agency met its Labor Day 2021 deadline on a court order to address a backlog of earlier claims, but other disputed claims built up in that period. The agency had paused its collection of overpayments to unemployed claimants as it sorted through the backlogs of disputed claims and appeals, the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported in September 2021.

In November 2021, a report from the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission showed that the agency had made progress in its backlog, down to 437,000 outstanding claims. The report also showed, though that the VEC needed to recoup more than $1.2 billion that was incorrectly paid out, WWBT reported.

In early January, the agency reached an agreement with five legal advocacy groups to end a federal lawsuit the groups had filed against the state, the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported.

On Jan. 19, the governor’s office removed Ellen Marie Hess from her position as VEC commissioner and two days later, the governor’s office announced he had appointed Carrie Roth as VEC commissioner.

The agency also delayed the launch of its updated system last year, from Oct. 1, 2021, to November 2021.

GOP lawmakers push to protect workers who decline COVID vaccines

RICHMOND, Va. – Lawmakers narrowly passed a bill this month that would allow people fired for refusing a COVID-19 vaccine to receive unemployment benefits if no other misconduct took place.

The measure advanced from the House of Delegates on a 51-48 party line vote and was assigned to a Senate committee on Feb. 10.

The bill was one of several introduced by Republicans this session to protect and defend workers who do not want to get the COVID-19 vaccine.

Del. Kathy J. Byron, R-Forest, introduced House Bill 1201 to protect the unvaccinated from potential discrimination. The bill adds a line to the current unemployment misconduct law stating refusal to receive a COVID-19 vaccine does not hinder someone from obtaining unemployment benefits.

Byron said her bill is not an endorsement for or against the vaccine. She is a proponent of the COVID-19 vaccine but said vaccination is a personal choice.

“There are many reasons why people have declined to take it, due to religious reasons and other reasons,” Byron said in a February subcommittee meeting.

The bill preserves a worker’s right to make decisions about their own health, Byron said. However, she said the legislation doesn’t prevent employers from requiring employees to receive a COVID-19 vaccine.

“They are not getting purposely fired so they can go home and collect unemployment,” Byron said. “We need to make sure they have the ability to have benefits until they find another position.”

There is currently no explicit ruling as to whether refusing a COVID-19 vaccine without reason qualifies as misconduct, according to Norfolk-based employment lawyer John M. Bredehoft. Reasons to refuse the vaccine include medical injury, disability, or a “sincere religious objection,” he said.

“Knowing what the rule is has a definite value independent of what the rule would be,” Bredehoft said.

Generally, if someone gets fired, they get unemployment benefits and if they quit, they don’t receive the benefits, Bredehoft said. However, the bill isn’t clear enough, Bredehoft said.

“Let’s be clear. Nobody gets fired for refusal to get vaccinated – period,” Bredehoft said. “People get fired for refusal to be vaccinated when the company has a policy requiring them to be vaccinated.”

Nicole Riley, deputy secretary of labor for Gov. Glenn Youngkin, spoke at the subcommittee meeting. She said the governor’s administration supports the bill.

Virginians have received over 15 million doses of various COVID-19 vaccines, and 71% of the population is fully vaccinated, according to the Virginia Department of Health. Over 80% of the adult population 18 and up is fully vaccinated. A person is considered fully vaccinated by the VDH when they received one dose of a single dose vaccine and both doses of a two dose vaccine.

Del. Don L. Scott, D-Portsmouth, was the only person to question Byron during the subcommittee meeting. No delegates asked questions during subsequent meetings. Scott confirmed with Byron that Youngkin’s administration supports giving unemployment benefits to those who were fired for refusing a COVID-19 vaccine.

The Senate Commerce and Labor committee expected to read the bill meets on Mondays. The bill is one of approximately 70 House measures waiting for the committee’s action.

Correction: A previous version of this story incorrectly referred to Nicole Riley as the state director of the National Federation of Independent Businesses. She is now the deputy secretary of labor for Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Capital News Service regrets the error.

Capital News Service is a program of Virginia Commonwealth University’s Robertson School of Media and Culture. Students in the program provide state government coverage for a variety of media outlets in Virginia.

New Va. jobless claims inch up

Virginia’s new unemployment claims rose just slightly for the week ending Jan. 29, the Virginia Unemployment Commission reported Thursday.

Virginians filed 2,157 claims for the last week of January, an increase of 217 initial claims from the previous week. Continued claims totaled 7,439, a decrease of 104 claims from the previous week and 89% lower than the 67,337 continued claims from the comparable week in 2021.

People receiving unemployment benefits through the VEC must file weekly unemployment claims in order to continue receiving benefits.

The majority of claimants who filed for benefits last week reported being in these industries: administrative and waste services, construction, retail trade, health care and social assistance, and professional and technical services.

Nationwide, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 238,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The advance number of actual initial claims, unadjusted, totaled 257,002 in the week ending Jan. 29, a decrease of 11,728 from the previous week.

New Va. unemployment claims down 32%

Virginia’s new unemployment claims declined by almost 32%, the Virginia Employment Commission reported Thursday.

For the filing week ending Jan. 22, Virginians filed 1,940 initial claims, down 909 from the previous week. Continued claims totaled 7,543, an increase of 484 claims from the week before.

Compared to the same week last year, initial claims were 89% lower than the 18,312 recorded then. Continued claims were 89% lower than the 67,298 from the comparable week. People receiving unemployment benefits through the VEC must file weekly unemployment claims in order to continue receiving benefits.

The majority of claimants who filed for benefits last week reported being in these industries: construction; administrative and waste services; accommodation and food service; and retail.

The VEC has drawn attention and legal action for backlogs of claims during the pandemic. On Jan. 19,  Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s office removed Ellen Marie Hess from her position as VEC commissioner, WVEC’s 13News Now reported. On Jan. 21, Youngkin announced that he named Carrie Roth as the VEC commissioner. Roth was the deputy secretary of commerce and trade under former Gov. Bob McDonnell.

Nationwide, the advance figure for seasonally unadjusted initial claims was 260,000, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The advance number of actual initial claims, unadjusted, totaled 267,573.

Va. new unemployment claims up 16%

New unemployment claims in Virginia increased 16% last week, the Virginia Employment Commission reported Thursday.

For the filing week ending Jan. 15, Virginians filed 2,849 initial claims, an increase of 406 from the week before. Continued claims totaled 7,059, down 1,131 from the previous week.

Compared to the same week last year, initials claims were 86% lower than the 21,073 recorded then. Continued claims were almost 89% lower than the 63,839 from the comparable week. People receiving unemployment benefits through the VEC must file weekly unemployment claims in order to continue receiving benefits.

The majority of claimants who filed for benefits last week reported being in these industries: construction; administrative and waste services; retail; and health care and social assistances.

The VEC has been under scrutiny for backlogs of claims during the pandemic, and the agency recently reached an agreement with five legal advocacy groups to end a federal lawsuit the groups had filed against the state. On Wednesday, Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s office removed Ellen Marie Hess from her position as VEC commissioner, WVEC’s 13News Now reported.

Nationwide, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 286,000, an increase of 55,000 from the previous week’s revised level.  There were 937,313 initial claims in the comparable week in 2021. The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 337,417.

Va. new unemployment claims up 35%

Virginia’s new unemployment claims increased by 34.9% last week, the Virginia Employment Commission reported Thursday.

For the filing week ending Jan. 8, Virginians filed 2,446 initial claims, an increase of 633 from the week before. Continued claims totaled 7,895, down 3,367 from the previous week.

Compared to last year, increased claims were almost 92% lower than the 28,227 recorded then. Continued claims were 88% lower than the 63,687 from the comparable week last year. People receiving unemployment benefits through the VEC must file weekly unemployment claims in order to continue receiving benefits.

The majority of claimants who filed for benefits last week reported being in these industries: construction; administrative and waste services; accommodation and food services; and health care and social assistance.

Nationwide, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, an increase of 23,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level. There were 1.08 million initial claims in the comparable week in 2021. The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 419,446.

Va. new unemployment claims up 51%

Virginia’s new unemployment claims increased by almost 51% last week, the Virginia Employment Commission reported Thursday.

For the filing week ending Jan. 1, Virginians filed 1,813 new claims, an increase of 609 from the previous week. Continued claims totaled 11,262, an increase of 6,358 claims from the week before.

Compared to last year, initial claims were almost 91% lower than the 19,530 recorded then. Continued claims were 82% lower than the 63,588 reported in the same week last year. People receiving unemployment benefits through the VEC must file weekly unemployment claims in order to continue receiving benefits.

The majority of claimants who filed for benefits last week reported being in these industries: construction; manufacturing; accommodation and food services; and administrative and waste services.

The VEC has been under scrutiny for backlogs of claims during the pandemic. On Wednesday, five legal advocacy groups reached an agreement with the VEC to end a federal lawsuit they had filed against the state for failing to promptly settle claims and pay benefits, the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported.

Nationwide, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level. There were 898,610 initial claims in the comparable week in 2021. The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 315,469 for the week.