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CNU poll shows tight race for GA control

A poll of 800 likely Virginia voters shows a tight race for party control of the General Assembly, which is currently split between Democrats controlling the state Senate and a Republican majority in the House of Delegates. According to results released Tuesday by Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Civic Leadership, 42% of respondents say they intend to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while 41% say they plan to vote for the Republican.

Early voting started statewide in September, and Nov. 7 is Election Day, when Virginia voters will cast their ballots to fill all 140 seats in the Virginia Senate and the House of Delegates. Although the 2023 races are fondly known as off-off-year elections, the combination of statewide redistricting and a virtually unprecedented wave of retiring and ousted legislators has focused a great deal of national attention and PAC funding on a handful of tight local races that could determine the state’s political power structure for decades.

According to the Wason Center poll, which was conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 11 via phone, the top issues among voters are the economy and inflation (27% of all voters polled; 41% among Republicans), abortion (17% of all voters; 25% among Democrats), and K-12 education (12%).

President Joe Biden, who is seeking re-election in 2024, has 41% approval among Virginia voters polled.

Meanwhile, term-limited Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin has 55% job approval, although majorities of Virginians polled disagreed with some of the governor’s positions, including leaving the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI); 65% of voters polled say they want the state to remain in the carbon cap-and-trade program.

Also, 54% of voters polled say they oppose a 15-week abortion ban that Youngkin and other Republicans have promoted as a compromise between the state’s current law that permits abortions up to 26 weeks (although third-trimester abortions require approval by three doctors who find a woman’s health is at risk), and 12-week limits in other Southern states.

The CNU poll indicates that 39% of those polled agree with a ban on abortions after 15 weeks, although more than 80% of voters said they favor legal abortions if the mother’s life is threatened, or if the pregnancy is unviable or the result of rape. Sixty-five percent say abortion should be legal if the baby is likely to be born with severe disabilities or health problems.

A 58% majority say that the state should allow retail sales of recreational marijuana, a process that was started with the decriminalization of marijuana possession and legalization for medical and recreational use in 2021, when both General Assembly houses were under Democratic control. However, since Youngkin was elected and the GOP regained control of the House of Delegates in 2022, lawmakers have not yet passed a structure for retail marijuana sales.

Another hot issue — parents’ influence in K-12 schools — shows a split among voters; 81% say they trust teachers to make the right decisions for school-aged children, although 67% support requiring parental notification if a student wants to use pronouns that differ from their birth certificate, and 65% would prevent transgender athletes from participating in sports teams that match their gender identity.

As political observers have noted, if Republicans retain power in the House and reverse Democrats’ narrow hold in the state Senate, Youngkin will have an easy time passing abortion limits, corporate tax cuts and other GOP priorities — as well as being in a prime position if he decides to launch a late 2024 presidential bid. However, if Democrats maintain their Senate majority and/or regain control of the House, the remainder of the governor’s term is likely to be a long two years for Youngkin.

More money for candidates

Additionally on Tuesday, the Virginia Public Access Project released campaign finance reports for Sept. 1-30, reporting political fundraising in excess of $1 million for Senate candidates in tight contests:

  • Democrat Russet Perry — $1,624,983 raised in September; $461,967 balance on Sept. 30
  • Republican Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant — $1,259,177 raised; $493,052 balance
  • Democrat Sen. Monty Mason — $1,233,585 raised; $225,988 balance
  • Republican Juan Pablo Segura — $1,075,450 raised; $26,354 balance

In the House, the top fundraisers for September were:

  • Democrat Kimberly Adams — $1,004,909 raised in September; $355,222 balance on Sept. 30
  • Republican Del. Karen Greenhalgh — $979,477 raised; $865,317 balance
  • Democrat Michael Feggans — $915,996 raised; $300,020 balance
  • Republican Del. Kim Taylor — $902,686 raised; $562,086 balance

Meanwhile, Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC raised $6.5 million in September, and as of Oct. 7, the political action committee has a healthy $6.5 million balance, after spending $6.2 million from Sept. 1 to Oct. 7, primarily on GOP candidates in close races. The Democratic National Committee also donated $1.2 million to the state Democratic Party in September, as Biden directed last month.

Va. CEOs expect increased sales despite shortages

About 70% of CEOs expect sales to increase in the next six months, despite supply chain and labor shortages, according to the first quarter CEO Economic Outlook survey conducted by the University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business and the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs).

Ninety percent of CEOs reported a labor shortage impacting their business, and 75% reported at least a minor impact from supply chain shortages.

Andrea C. Johnson, CEO of van der Linde Recycling & Container Rentals LLC in Fluvanna County, said that the company has faced several supply chain challenges. The time needed to obtain parts for maintenance and repair of trucks and equipment has increased. Additionally, the company faces higher costs on basic safety equipment for employees.

But “probably the biggest impact we’ve had right now, because I run a fleet and equipment, is fuel,” she said. “Our fuel costs have more than doubled over this time last year … and we’re having to add that to the customer cost.”

Richmond-based Livewire LLC CEO Henry Clifford said he and his staff now call securing supplies “the battle of next week.”

Livewire offers technology integration to homes and businesses, so it directly confronted chip shortages. “At this point it’s now a daily and weekly activity where our logistics folks have just gotten used to life during wartime, essentially, and almost normalized the supply chain shortages,” he said, adding that some lead times for obtaining gear run a year out.

Despite facing strong headwinds like a looming recession and the war in Ukraine, entrepreneurs remain optimistic, said VACEOs Executive Director Scot McRoberts. A higher percentage of respondents (70%) expected sales growth in the next six months than in the survey conducted at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021 (60%).

“These are small and midsize companies’ CEOs,” he said. “These aren’t corporate CEOs, and I think they’re more nimble than larger companies, so they’ve adjusted well to the challenges of the pandemic.”

Of the 70% of CEOs who expect sales to increase, 61% said they expected sales to be “higher,” and 9% expect sales to be “significantly higher.” Twenty-one percent expect no change.

For Clifford, increased pricing due to inflation contributes to that expectation, but service categories have also come back amid the transition out of the second phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In terms of employment, 67% of CEOs expect to increase their employment over the next six months, while 29% expect it to remain flat, and 4% expect staffing levels to fall.

Livewire has about 30 employees and expects to hire another five or so in the next six months, Clifford said.

Johnson’s answer has changed since she completed the survey in April, she said. The company has increased wages to retain its employees and won’t be seeking to hire more in the next few months.

Relative to pre-COVID times, 46% of CEOs said a higher percentage of their employees would be working remotely, and 39% said the number had not changed.

McRoberts said part of that continued increase might be because employees are demanding flexible or hybrid arrangements.

Except for roles that require in-person work, such as installation jobs, “we’re very flexible,” Clifford said, “and we trust our folks to decide what’s best for them as far as where they want to work or how they want to work, so we’re very results-oriented.”

The majority (57%) of CEOs said they expected capital spending to remain flat, while 31% expect an increase in capital spending.

“One [reason for that] is adjusting to the new virtual work environment that’s demanded by employees,” McRoberts said. “Even though they may be adding employees and growing the business, their demand for seats in the office is not growing with it.

“The other thing I think is just caution against the headwinds,” he said. “Going into a potential recession, cash is king.”

Johnson’s company is approaching the end of a two-year project that she estimated cost about $500,000 total. Currently, the company primarily serves the construction and demolition sectors. To support diversification into recycling mattresses, carpet pads and film (like the plastic wrap around pallets), van der Linde is building a new facility to house the necessary equipment. The investment should serve the company well, since petroleum prices are higher than when the company started on the project two years ago.

Rich Boulger, associate dean of the University of Richmond Robins School of Business, administered the survey from April 5 to April 14. The majority of respondents were in the services and construction industries. The average company represented had about $11 million in revenue for the past 12-month period and 53 employees.

The Robins School adapted the survey from one from the Business Roundtable, a Washington, D.C.-based lobbyist association of CEOs of U.S. companies, and has administered it since 2010.

Virginia Society of CPAs’ 2022 Virginia Economic Expectations Survey interviews

HAMPTON ROADS

Richard E. Groover, CPA

Shareholder | Wall, Einhorn & Chernitzer PC Norfolk

What local industries/sectors do you think have potential for growth?

Continued growth around the Port of Virginia and green energy. … Entrepreneurs and local leaders have made substantial investments to tee up this area as part of a wind turbine corridor for future developments on the East Coast. If that vision comes to fruition, then the impact on our area could be once in a lifetime. 

What’s the biggest challenge to doing business n your area?

Attracting and retaining young talent. 

How is your area recovering economically from  the pandemic?

Everything here is coming back strong. We lost quite a few local restaurants and bars, but the leisure sector as a whole is humming, and new development plans are back in the pipeline. 

What are the top factors that have had the biggest impact on attracting business to your region?

Ease of transportation into and out of our market is a huge draw. We have one of the deepest and busiest ports on the East Coast and great connections by rail and highway to the rest of the U.S. We encounter a number of European and Asian companies opening offices in the area to service their U.S. customers. It is always exciting to watch them grow and develop. Additionally, the military presence here remains a huge draw for supporting organizations in the area, particularly in the government contracting sector.

 What are the top obstacles to your region’s economic success?

Regional cooperation has been our Achilles’ heel for many years; fortunately, I believe a lot of business leaders are working to change that with the 757 initiative. Availability of employees is also a struggle; in our firm, we have adapted to some fully remote hires for various positions due to the staffing shortage in our local market.  

 


 

Forsythe photo by Rick DeBerry
Forsythe photo by Rick DeBerry

CENTRAL VIRGINIA 

George D. Forsythe, CPA

Managing Partner | WellsColeman | Richmond

What local industries/sectors do you think have potential for growth?

The health care industry continues to thrive and grow, given increasing demand placed by COVID. Optimistically, I believe the local hospitality and events sectors are poised for growth. Given the reduction in travel and in-person events, coupled with the shelter fatigue that many people are feeling, this sector is prepared to explode.

What’s the biggest challenge to doing business in your area?

The obvious challenge to doing business in our area is the pandemic. With numbers on the rise, and uncertainty in our future, it is very challenging to conduct business. Additionally, access to available and quality personnel has further impacted the region economically. There is an abundance of jobs available and a scarcity of individuals who can and will appropriately fill these roles.

How is your area recovering economically from the pandemic?

The Richmond region was recovering nicely, albeit [on] a long road, from the pandemic until the delta variant began its momentum. … In times of uncertainty, human nature is to conserve resources versus expend them. This pandemic uncertainty, including health requirements, available staffing and supply chains, will continue to impair our recovery.


What are the top factors that have had the biggest impact on attracting business to your region?

Our high-quality colleges and universities providing access to top-tier talent, as well as access to financial resources, including available investment capital and incentives offered by local government.

What are the top obstacles to your region’s economic success?

The biggest obstacle facing the Richmond region’s economic success is the unknown future of the coronavirus pandemic. … The second, and more rooted, obstacle facing our region is the suboptimal collaboration among our local government, business and community leaders. 

 


 

Stepka photo by Don Petersen
Stepka photo by Don Petersen

SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

Andrea Hupp Stepka

Partner | Foti, Flynn, Lowen & Co. | Roanoke

What do you love about living and working in your region?

I moved here in summer of 1995, right after graduation from Virginia Tech. I love the mountains and the greenways. I am an avid runner, so the outdoor life here in Roanoke is amazing.

How is the economy faring in your part of the state right now?

Small businesses are having trouble finding good help, suppliers are limited everywhere … [and] prices are higher everywhere as well.

What local industries/sectors do you think have potential for growth?  

Technology/software and knowledge-based industries

What’s the biggest challenge to doing business in your area?

Right now, the answer has to be COVID, right? It’s a huge challenge for workers to be face to face, and thus we as a CPA firm have had to embrace the remote aspects of working with our clients.

How is your area recovering economically from the pandemic?

Overall, I think we are doing fine. … Our clients have weathered the storm, and for the most part seem to be coming out on the other side. We haven’t seen many businesses having to close, most likely due to the [Employee Retention Credits] and loans from the government.

What are the top factors that have had the biggest impact on attracting business to your region?

Roanoke is a beautiful place to live. The mountains and scenery are a big attraction. The cost of living is very competitive as well. We have a high quality of living here, with a good mix of industries ranging from the small mom-and-pop to large businesses.

What are the top obstacles to your region’s economic success?

There are some disparities in income levels in Roanoke and we have a growing population of people in poverty.


 

Milburn photo by Norm Shafer
Milburn photo by Norm Shafer

SHENANDOAH VALLEY

Thomas L. Milburn, CPA

Principal | Yount, Hyde and Barbour (YHB) | Winchester

How is the economy faring in your part of the state?

Spring and summer showed a strong recovery. Pent-up demand led to tourism, shopping and dining again. The valley offers outdoor activities along with farm markets, vineyards and breweries that capitalized on people traveling closer to home or getting out of cities. Our industrial sector is doing well, with I-81 contributing to our role as a distribution/manufacturing hub in a world of mail order.

What local industries/sectors do you think have potential for growth?

Based on the quality of life and comparatively low cost of living, the valley has been an attractive location for retirees but more recently has become a destination for people migrating from cities to work remotely. Housing and professional services for those groups have potential for growth, such as health care and assisted living, along with wealth management, accounting, legal and other services.

What’s the biggest challenge to doing business in your area?

One major challenge to doing business across industry sectors is obtaining and retaining talent. … Affordable housing is an issue for younger professionals and retail/hospitality workers.

How is your area recovering economically from the pandemic?

With COVID uncertainty creeping back, indications are the valley economy isn’t full speed ahead. While businesses spent stimulus on employees, cash reserves remain as employers decide on spending and investment. It’s worth noting the uneven impact of the pandemic. While businesses have cash, the appetite for further unemployment benefits for hourly and gig workers seems low if the pandemic lingers.

What are the top obstacles to your region’s economic success?

First, affordable housing remains a priority. Second, the lack of high-speed internet in large areas of the valley for work and education was exacerbated by the pandemic. 

 


 

Williamson photo by Stephen Gosling
Williamson photo by Stephen Gosling

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

Christine B. Williamson, CPA, PMP

Government contracting industry audit & advisory lead partner | CohnReznick LLP | Tysons

How is the economy faring in your part of the state?

Over the decades, many have commented that NoVa is “in a bubble,” meaning it fares well during turbulent economic times. This phrase continues to ring true in the pandemic and as we get back to the new normal. With the federal government, Amazon, Micron and data storage facilities, these sectors fuel the bubble effect here in Northern Virginia.

What local industries/sectors do you think have potential for growth?

The industries are endless here in NoVa, but I think the technology and medical sectors have the greatest potential for growth.

What’s the biggest challenge to doing business in your area?

My expertise is servicing companies who work for the federal government via government contracts. There is a talent war for many business sectors, including CPA firms. I’d say talent is the biggest challenge, regardless of the business type. We all struggle to find enough people to do the work, causing companies to go outside the area to look for talent.

How is your area recovering economically from the pandemic?

The Northern Virginia area is no different than other regions, as the business world has pivoted out of the pandemic by modifying how to do business, be creative, think strategic and figure out new ways to sell the same services. I hear many businesses say we are revisiting our business culture and purpose, which helps them through the recovery process.

What are the top factors that have had the biggest impact on attracting business to your region?

Location, location and location! And our vibrant technology sector.

What are the top obstacles to your region’s economic success?

Cost of living and traffic.

 


Read more: Virginia Society of CPAs’ 2022 Virginia Economic Expectations Survey results and post-pandemic work models

Virginia Society of CPAs’ 2022 Virginia Economic Expectations Survey results

 

Read more: Virginia Society of CPAs’ 2022 Virginia Economic Expectations Survey interviews and post-pandemic work models

Remote possibilities

Before the coronavirus pandemic, LaToya Jordan regularly missed small moments in her children’s lives — like seeing her young son getting off the bus each day. She commuted to downtown Richmond or to a client site and arrived home after her children.

The state agency where she works allowed telecommuting one day a week, and her schedule was flexible, but 90% of her work week was spent in the office. After the pandemic, though, her work schedule changed dramatically, and more than 18 months later, she still isn’t fully back in the office.

Jordan, the deputy auditor for human capital and operations for the Virginia Auditor of Public Accounts, was working from home about four days each week as of late September.

Like so many other workplaces across Virginia and the nation, her agency shifted fully to remote work when the pandemic began in March 2020 and has not fully transitioned back to working onsite. And there’s a good chance it will never return to its pre-pandemic model.

“I think what we’re transitioning to is going to be more of a hybrid situation,” Jordan says. “We appreciate that we have the technology to support us being able to work primarily remotely, but we also realize the benefit of in-person collaborating as well.”

“I think we will continue to have way more flexibility than we did before the pandemic,” she says.

(L to R) Hantzmon Wiebel LLP employees Edward J. Schmitz, Jennifer S. Lehman, Leslie Lloyd and Rebecca Burtram participate in a video meeting in Charlottesville. Photo by Norm Shafer
(L to R) Hantzmon Wiebel LLP employees Edward J. Schmitz, Jennifer S. Lehman, Leslie Lloyd and Rebecca Burtram participate in a video meeting in Charlottesville. Photo by Norm Shafer

‘The future of work will be flexible’

Flexibility will be the name of the game when looking ahead to post-pandemic work environments. It’s what many workers say they want moving forward.

In the Virginia Society of Certified Public Accountants’ latest annual survey of current economic conditions and expectations, conducted in partnership with Virginia Business, 78% of respondents said that work flexibility is the top trait displayed by businesses that are recovering well from the pandemic.

Forty percent of survey respondents expect to work a hybrid schedule during the next six months and 53% expect they will be working remotely for the next six months. Looking out a year, 37% say they expect a mix of hybrid, still mostly remote, and about 30% say hybrid, but mostly onsite.

The survey, completed by Virginia CPAs in public accounting, private industry, government and education, confirms that not knowing what the future holds is one of the key cruxes companies are facing in planning for doing business in the post-pandemic world.

“I think one of my lessons learned is, you can’t be too set in your ways or set in your plans,” says VSCPA President and CEO Stephanie Peters. “You have to have this ability to plan what you can but know that there’s going to be disruption, and that’s just happening so much more quickly as we’ve seen over the past 12 to 18 months.”

This summer, as it appeared that the world might be getting back to normal, the highly contagious delta variant of COVID-19 spurred a resurgence in coronavirus cases, halting or delaying post-Labor Day plans that many businesses had for returning to the office.

Hantzmon Wiebel LLP, a Charlottesville accounting and financial advisory firm with about 100 employees, had to use an “emergency remote access plan” and turn on a dime in March 2020 to make sure everyone had the ability to work from home. “We ended up going down to less than 20 to 25% of people in the building during the height of the pandemic,” says Jennifer Lehman, the firm’s CEO. “We implemented technology like crazy.”

In June 2020, Hantzmon Wiebel employees started edging back toward the office, but some requested permission to work mostly remotely on a permanent basis. Prior to the pandemic, the firm had been making plans to move to a smaller office, but it plans to downsize even more, with remote work remaining an option.

Companies large and small have been adapting to meet the needs and concerns of their employees, including child care needs and worries about potentially infecting their children who aren’t yet old enough to be vaccinated.

Grant Thornton LLP, a Chicago-based global accounting corporation with about 1,200 employees in Arlington, had a seamless transition to remote work amid the pandemic and has promised its 8,500 national employees that their work schedules will be flexible.

“Our work does assume that we’re mobile and moving to respond to our clients’ needs, and post-pandemic we’ve really continued that.” says Greg Wallig, managing principal for Grant Thornton’s Washington, D.C., region office in Arlington. “Our view is that the future of work will be flexible and so will we. Our employees are empowered to work in whatever way best suits the needs of the client, and if that’s remote and meets their comfort levels and the client’s satisfaction, we’re happy to support that.”

Since the pandemic began, Grant Thornton has taken measures to assist employees, including monthly internet subsidies, reimbursing for personal protective equipment, doubling the firm’s child care subsidies and subsidizing food-delivery service memberships. The firm also gave each employee a $1,000 stipend to help defray personal expenses.

“We sought really to help employees cover the additional costs that we imagined they were incurring based on the response to the pandemic,” Wallig says.

The measures have helped employee retention — Grant Thornton didn’t lose any more employees during the pandemic than it did in pre-pandemic times, Wallig notes.

“That’s really wonderful when you consider this pandemic working model has gone on 18 months now,” he says. “A year and a half is a long period of time, and I’m really thankful that the combination of both benefits that we offered our employees and just the atmosphere that we created … has continued to give people a sense of connection. They understand the job market is hot right now and there are opportunities out there, but they choose to stay with Grant Thornton because of the culture.”

Shifting work culture

Improving the remote work experience is something 41% of VSCPA survey respondents say their companies plan to do.

DXC Technology Co., an IT services company, is moving its corporate headquarters from Tysons to Ashburn in November and shrinking its footprint to reflect a virtual-first mentality. Employees can work from anywhere and will use the office as more of a communal space than an everyday work environment. What started as a multiyear plan was essentially accelerated overnight, says DXC Chief Operating Officer Chris Drumgoole.

DXC has “dramatically increased” its investment in technology, he says. “The office should really be more about a place to come together, collaborate [and] get together because human interaction is still really important and we think it’s there, but it doesn’t have to be every day, 9 to 5, to plug in.”

Technology is just one component of DXC’s changing work model, Drumgoole says. It’s really a cultural and procedural change enabled by technology.

Some companies say working remotely has built deeper ties among colleagues.

“I think the one thing that has kind of stood out to me over the past year and a half is the supporting nature of people,” says Jordan. “I think that because we’ve had to come together and make some decisions and make sure we’re collaborating to get the work done, it’s created stronger connections in some regards as well.”

Jordan has had her own challenges. One time she was in the middle of a meeting when her infant son was crying. Her older son did his best to soothe the baby, but ultimately, Jordan had to take over. She rocked the baby while participating in the meeting. The experience made her more compassionate as a leader, she says.

“While the pandemic has been challenging, I think that it’s also brought forth some benefit from a work-life balance perspective, as well.”

A greater emphasis on work-life balance is one of the factors that has contributed to what economists are calling “the Great Resignation,” an ongoing pandemic-era trend of people leaving their jobs in search of better working conditions and quality of life. In turn, such voluntary separations are contributing to severe labor shortages across virtually every industry.

To prevent turnover, it’s necessary that employees feel secure, says Vinod Agarwal, deputy director of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy at Old Dominion University.

One of the forces contributing to the labor shortage is a reluctance to return to workplaces for fear of getting sick, he says. The risk has to be worth it, and that’s a decision made beyond what a person brings home in pay.

“The only way to solve this problem is having to pay high wages and thinking differently than we have been doing historically” he says. “Workers are not just workers; they are part of a family. We have to learn how to take care of them. Some [employers] are providing day care services [or] bonuses to employees. … It is not just higher wages; it is how we treat our employees. That is a lesson to be learned from the pandemic.”

Many workers are not going back to minimum wage positions they deem too risky, says Maggie Cowell, an associate professor of urban affairs and planning at Virginia Tech who specializes in economic development. But that leaves companies in a lurch, too.

About 85% of respondents to the VSCPA’s annual economic expectations survey reported that labor shortages pose a significant or moderate risk to their companies or industries. The same percentage of respondents, 85%, are concerned about rising labor costs.

Even after expanded unemployment benefits have ended, workers largely are not returning to jobs they previously held, she says, adding that “the length of time that we are watching this play out seems pretty pronounced.”

And when workers leave and find better pay or working conditions, it tends to have a “contagious” effect, inspiring their former co-workers to also resign, she adds. “Given the amount of [job] opportunities for people who are looking … you can’t blame them.”

According to a survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business in mid-September, 27% of small employers are currently experiencing significant staffing shortages and another 18% are experiencing moderate staffing shortages.

This has employers brainstorming ways to make their companies more appealing to potential hires.

DXC, which has 130,000 employees worldwide, including several hundred in Arlington and the Washington, D.C., region, is hoping to use its virtual-first mindset as a differentiator when recruiting.

Lehman, with Hantzmon Wiebel in Charlottesville, says her firm is considering hiring experienced candidates from out of state for remote work. Despite the pandemic and changes in work models, though, the core values at Lehman’s firm have not changed, she says.

“What’s really, really important during the pandemic is focusing on culture, focusing on your people, focusing on making sure that you were taking care of what was important before, which … for us … was our clients and our team members,” Lehman says, “… and I think that’s what made it so it was OK.”

Read more: Virginia Society of CPAs’ 2022 Virginia Economic Expectations Survey interviews and survey results

Va. CEOs expect sales, employment to increase

Almost 70% of CEOs expect sales to increase over the next six months, and about 60% expect employment to increase, according to a third quarter survey conducted by the University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business and the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs).

Compared to answers from the CEO Economic Outlook Survey conducted at the end of the second quarter, more CEOs expected sales, capital spending and employment to increase in the next six months.

“These CEOs are expressing a pre-pandemic level of optimism,” VACEOs Executive Director Scot McRoberts said in a statement. “That is in spite of the significant headwinds of workforce challenges and supply chain disruptions. That’s good news for all of us.”

Sixty-eight percent of CEOs responded that they expected sales to increase over the next six months, with most of those (55%) saying they expected sales to be “higher” and 13% choosing “significantly higher.” Twenty-three percent expect no change in sales.

About 47% expect capital spending to increase over the next half-year, up from 36% last quarter, but 45% expect it to remain flat. More than 8% expect a decrease in capital spending.

About 60% of respondents indicated that they expected employment to increase over the next six months, but 38% expect it to remain flat. Only 2% anticipate employment falling.

Forty-five percent of CEOs polled said they would not require a return to in-person work yet, while 24% said they would, and 31% weren’t sure.

The survey also asked CEOs what percentage of their workforce would be working remotely relative to pre-COVID times. Almost half (47%) said that there would not be a change in the percentage working remotely. Thirty-two percent said a higher percentage of employees would be working remotely compared to the pre-COVID distribution, and 21% said a lower percentage would be working remotely.

The survey was administered from Oct. 5 to Oct. 11, and 53 CEOs responded. Services, retail and construction represent the majority of respondents. The average company whose CEO responded had about $16 million in revenue for the most recent 12-month period and an average of 80 employees.

The Robins School adapted the survey from Business Roundtable, a Washington, D.C.-based lobbyist association of CEOs of U.S. companies, and has administered it since 2010. Rich Boulger, associate dean at the Robins School, administers the survey and collects the responses.

NoVa biz leaders optimistic about recovery

Northern Virginia businesses are optimistic about economic recovery but are feeling the effects of labor shortages, according to the 2021 Northern Virginia Workforce Index released Wednesday by Northern Virginia Community College and the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce.

Fifty-one percent of employers said that they felt “somewhat optimistic” and 24% felt “very optimistic” about the economy’s prospects over the next one to three years, and 45% were “somewhat optimistic” and 35% reported being “very optimistic” about their businesses’ prospects.

“This highlights the extent to which Northern Virginia’s resiliency during the pandemic has been a product of its industry landscape and economic reliance on large firms in the professional/technical services and public sectors,” which were able to transition to remote work more easily, according to the index’s authors, allowing that the survey’s overrepresentation of businesses in these sectors could have influenced the results.

The index combines survey responses from 91 regional business leaders with labor market data. Business leaders answered the 25 questions between June 30 and Aug. 25. Those surveyed were primarily at the C-suite/executive leadership level (74%), but also included directors of human resources (12%) and other managers with knowledge regarding their business’s hiring and talent development (14%).

The survey group was based on a sampling of convenience, so companies providing professional, business, financial or other services were more represented than leisure, hospitality, food service, retail and construction sectors. Similarly, mid-size businesses (with 20 to 500 employees) were overrepresented, as were businesses in Fairfax County (making up 48% of respondents).

The survey also asked business leaders whether their businesses’ activity (orders, sales, revenue, contracts, etc.) had returned to pre-pandemic levels. Thirty-one percent answered that their business activity did not decline due to the pandemic, while 27% answered that it had returned to normal. Most (27%) whose businesses had not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels expected their recovery to take 6 months or more.

A plurality (47%) of respondents thought that their businesses would increase their levels of paid employment by less than 15%, although 43% responded that since the start of 2020, their businesses did not have a significant change in paid employment levels.

Employers are facing labor shortages, however. Half reported that hiring has been more difficult than usual since the beginning of this year, and 42% indicated that an overall shortage of candidates has been a primary barrier to hiring over the last 12 months.

“Through the Workforce Index, we found that many Northern Virginia businesses continue to face talent recruitment challenges,” Northern Virginia Community College President Anne M. Kress said during the virtual index launch event. “Now is the perfect time for employers to tap into a broader, more diverse pool of job seekers through apprenticeship programs and other alternate methods.”

The top anticipated change in hiring practices are an emphasis on diversity, equity and inclusion (66%) and the use of remote hiring (57%). Employers see remote work options (62%), flexible scheduling (59%) and generous health care benefits (59%), closely followed by generous vacation and sick time benefits (57%), as perks that have been the most successful in retaining talent.

Employers provided mixed responses to whether remote work will continue. Only 9% of respondents said that none of their employees would continue working remotely at least half the time on a permanent basis. The most chosen response, garnering 27%, was that a quarter or less of employees would remain primarily remote on a permanent basis. About a third of respondents reported that more than half of their workforce would continue working remotely most of the time. The responses largely reflect the represented industries, with most of the respondents in professional, business or financial services saying more than half of their workforce would work remotely, while goods-producing and direct-service businesses responded that fewer than half of their employees would remain remote.

The minimum level of education typically required for entry-level jobs based on survey responses was a high school diploma or less (44%), with a bachelor’s degree receiving the second-most responses (34%). Only 3% of employers responded that a graduate degree was the required level.

It doesn’t make sense for individuals or employers to say that college is a necessary component of everyone’s skill set to work somewhere,” Paul Misener, Amazon.com Inc.’s vice president of global innovation policy and communications, said during the panel event. “It’s great if you want to get a four-year degree … but it’s not necessary. The good news is that employers are getting away from that. College remains an option and should be an option, but it shouldn’t be a necessary factor of everyone’s career and life.”

Most employers (86%) responded that general on-the-job training was the professional development benefit offered at their company, and 73% answered in-house training.

“The current moment presents an opportunity for businesses in Northern Virginia to reconsider alternate forms of recruiting and professional development/training, such as apprenticeships, internships and other work-based learning models, as a means for widening the pipeline of available talent in the region,” according to the index’s findings.

VCU poll shows McAuliffe with 9-point lead in governor’s race

A new statewide poll from Virginia Commonwealth University shows Democratic former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe with a nine-point lead over Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin, a far different take than the much tighter race indicated by a Washington Post-George Mason University poll released Saturday.

VCU’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs released its second Virginia gubernatorial poll results Monday, indicating that while McAuliffe has 43% of likely voters’ support and Youngkin only 34%, the attorney general and lieutenant governor races have gotten closer in the past month.

VCU’s August poll showed the two gubernatorial candidates in practically a dead heat, while Democratic Attorney General Mark Herring and lieutenant governor candidate Del. Hala Ayala held 10-point leads over their respective GOP opponents, Del. Jason Miyares and Winsome Sears.

“Our recent poll relative to the governor’s race and statewide elections showed interesting results,” former Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder said in a statement Monday. “Neither McAuliffe nor Youngkin had 50% support. The increase in the undecided and those unable to commit for either is noteworthy. The poll was taken prior to any debates. How the candidates show the people what they propose dealing with the pandemic and its effects are obvious concerns. The narrowing of the lead by the Democratic candidates in the lieutenant governor and attorney general races and increased ‘undecided’ shows ‘the jury’ may be out awhile longer.”

The poll of 811 adults in Virginia was conducted Sept. 7-15 with a margin of error of 5.35%, which increases to 6.93% when considering likely voters only. In the attorney general race, incumbent Herring has a six-point lead over Republican Miyares, 39% to 33%, and Ayala appears to have lost ground against Sears, with a 33% to 30% lead that falls within the margin of error. However, 20% of voters said they remain undecided or unwilling to vote for either lieutenant governor candidate.

It’s a similar story for the two major-party governor contenders; 23% of those polled said they are still undecided or are unwilling to vote for either candidate. A third-party candidate, Princess Blanding, is considered a possible spoiler for McAuliffe among progressive Democratic voters. Blanding — the sister of Virginia teacher Marcus-David Peters, who was killed by a Richmond police officer in 2018 — was not included in Thursday’s first gubernatorial debate, but according to a Youngkin campaign internal poll cited by FiveThirtyEight, her presence could help Youngkin beat McAuliffe.

A poll of 907 likely voters conducted Sept. 7-13 by The Washington Post and GMU’s Schar School of Policy and Government showed McAuliffe with a much narrower lead, 50% over Youngkin’s 47% — within the margin of statistical error. Mark Rozell, the Schar School’s dean, called the race a “toss-up” in the Post.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s falling approval numbers may also hamper McAuliffe’s campaign for a second, nonconsecutive term. The Wilder School poll shows 46% of Virginians approving of the job the Democratic Biden is doing, down five points from August likely influenced by factors such as the U.S. military’s turbulent exit from Afghanistan and increasing disagreements over the Biden administration’s coronavirus responses, including vaccine-or-testing mandates for companies employing 100 or more workers.

In state delegates’ races, Democrats maintained a slight edge over Republicans in the VCU poll, with 43% of respondents saying they’d like the party to retain control next year. Five percent were undecided, and 39% wanted Republicans to regain power in the House.  Democrats hold a 55-seat majority in the House of Delegates, and all 100 seats are up for grabs.

Virginia’s early voting period started Sept. 17, and Election Day is Nov. 2.

Roanoke Valley office occupancy increases by 1%

The Roanoke Valley office market saw a 1% increase in office occupancy in 2020, ending the year with an 88% occupancy rate, according to Poe & Cronk Real Estate Group’s 34th Annual Office Market Survey.

These figures are a promising sign “in one of the most challenging years in recent memory,” Poe & Cronk states, adding that “while office users may not be currently using all of their office space, most are not ready to permanently commit to never needing it again.”

The survey incorporates data covering nongovernmental office buildings measuring 10,000 square feet or more.

 

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Labor market continued slow recovery in early November

The labor market continued its slow recovery during the week of Nov. 8, according to Virginia Commonwealth University and Arizona State University economists.

Early November saw 69.9% of working age adults employed, which is still far below the 73.8% employment rate from February right before the pandemic, according to the Real-Time Population Survey conducted by VCU assistant economics professor Adam Blandin and Arizona State associate economics professor Alexander Bick.

“The latest [Real-Time Population Survey] results show that, since April, employment has recovered three-quarters of the way back to the pre-pandemic level,” Blandin said in a statement.

Early November also showed an increase in earnings relative to the spring. More than one-third among those employed in February reported an earnings loss in early April. This declined to one-fourth in the most recent survey. 

“Together, these results indicate that some of the earnings losses suffered early in the pandemic were temporary in nature,” according to the report.

The Real-Time Population Survey closely follows the methodology of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey and covers the same time period, but is released two weeks earlier. The survey is conducted in collaboration with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

 

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