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Real Estate 2023: JACKIE THIEL

Thiel was appointed president of Long & Foster Real Estate in March, replacing Larry “Boomer” Foster. She has been with the company since 1998 and was executive vice president of general brokerage operations before her promotion. Thiel oversees the company’s more than 200 offices and 9,000 agents across eight states and Washington, D.C.

During her 25 years with the company, Thiel has held various positions, including vice president and regional manager for the Southwest Virginia, Richmond and Hampton Roads regions; vice president of regional development; and vice president of career development. She started her career at Bowers Nelms & Fonville, a Richmond real estate company purchased by Long & Foster in 1998.

Long & Foster Real Estate is owned by The Long & Foster Cos., a subsidiary of HomeServices of America, a Berkshire Hathaway affiliate. In 2022, Long & Foster Real Estate sold $27 billion in homes.

Thiel has a bachelor’s degree in education from Franciscan University and studied education psychology at the University of Oregon.

Real Estate 2023: MARK C. LOWHAM

Lowham has led the Washington, D.C.-region arm of the luxury real estate company since 2011. His office handled the record $48 million sale of the state’s most expensive home, Fairfax County estate River View, to former Washington Commanders owners Dan and Tanya Snyder in November 2021. (According to news reports, the couple has moved to England, but there’s no word on whether they’re looking to sell River View.)

In fiscal 2022, the more than 500 agents under Lowham closed on $4.7 billion in sales, and Lowham was named to the 2023 Swanepoel Power 200 list of the nation’s top residential real estate brokerage executives.

Lowham serves on Bright MLS’ board and was previously executive vice president of West*Group. He is a board member for Washington’s Hillwood Estate, Museum and Gardens, as well as a Washington region board member for Teach for America.

Real Estate 2023: RYAN T. McLAUGHLIN

One of the largest regional Realtor associations in the United States, the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors represents approximately 13,000 real estate professionals transacting more than $18 billion in sales annually in the Washington, D.C., metro area.

McLaughlin became its CEO in 2015, after serving as CEO of Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors in Pennsylvania. A graduate of East Stroudsburg University and the State University of New York at Albany, McLaughlin also completed an executive education program, Authentic Leader Development, at Harvard Business School.

The 102-year-old NVAR represents sales agents, brokers, property managers and other real estate professionals in Arlington and Fairfax counties, Fairfax city, Alexandria and Falls Church. Aside from offering continuing education for members, the organization provides reports on home sales in the region and residential sales forecasts. In June, NVAR reported it expected the housing market in Northern Virginia to remain a sellers’ market for the rest of the year, and mortgage rates to remain higher than pre-pandemic rates.

HOW I UNWIND FROM WORK: Spending time with my family, going for a run or playing guitar

Low inventory, high interest rates strap Va. housing market

Homebuyers in Virginia are continuing to feel the strain of low inventory and high interest rates.

The number of active listings on the market is shrinking, and fewer new listings are coming on the market. Despite a brief uptick in inventory at the beginning the year, about 67% of the state’s counties and cities had fewer active listings on the market at the end of July compared with a year ago, with Northern Virginia continuing to have the largest reduction in supply, according to a Virginia Realtors report released Aug. 22.

There were 16,508 active listings across the state in July, 3,881 fewer listings than the same month in 2022, a 19% drop. A total 10,948 new listings came onto the market last month, about 2,800 fewer new listings than the same period in 2022, a 20.3% decrease.

“Inventory conditions are worsening in most local markets in Virginia,” Virginia Realtors President Katrina M. Smith said in a statement. “With mortgage rates at a 20-year high and a low supply of homes on the market to move into, some would-be sellers are choosing not to list their homes. However, it is a seller’s market, and most who do sell their homes are receiving multiple offers.”

A total 8,985 homes sold in Virginia in July, a 20.8% decrease from July 2022, with 2,361 fewer sales. However, low inventory and strong demand have continued to drive up the price for homes; the statewide median sales price rose $15,000 from July 2022 to $400,000 in July 2023, an increase of nearly 4%. The median home price in Virginia is now more than $100,000 higher than it was at this time five years ago.

In a statement, Virginia Realtors Chief Economist Ryan Price called the state’s housing market “slow but competitive.”  Sellers are averaging more than three offers for their listings, which signals the market remains competitive, he said.

“These competitive conditions are driving up home prices and will likely continue to be a factor into the fall market and beyond,” Price said.

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

Meanwhile, Northern Virginia continues to feel the slump when compared to the national market. While national home sales dropped 16.6% in July compared to the previous year, Northern Virginia sales fell 20%, and were down 23.5% compared to June. At the same time, prices increased 1.9% nationally while Northern Virginia prices surged 6.3%, an increase from the previous year but a drop from the prior month, according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.

“July in the [Washington], D.C. area is a traditionally slower month for home sales as people vacation and Congress is out of session,” NVAR Board Member Rachel Carter, Alexandria branch vice president for Coldwell Banker Realty, said in a statement. “Even though sales are lower, people still looking to buy should expect higher prices since supply and demand are still not in sync.”

Mortgage rates topping 7% contributed to the tight supply of housing while pushing prices higher, according to NVAR. Nationally, the median home price in July was $406,700, an increase of 1.9% from July 2022. In Northern Virginia, the median sold price for a home in July 2023 was $691,000, a 6.3% increase from July 2022. However, NVAR said, homebuyers “got a break” from June 2023 as prices declined 3.8% from that period.

Across the country, unsold inventory sits at a 3.3 month supply, up from 3.1 months in June and 3.2 months in July 2022. In Northern Virginia, supply was at one month, down from 1.1 months in June and 1.23 months in July 2022., though it still remained close to the five-year average of 1.2 months of supply. The average days on the market in July 2023 was 15 days, no change from July 2022, and two days longer than June 2023.

“Our region’s sales dropped more than the country as a whole, but we continue to experience higher price escalation than the overall market since our area has very low inventory,” NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin said in a statement. “Factors for both are continued low inventory and high mortgage rates, which are affecting first time homebuyers in particular since they are competing with repeat homebuyers who have the advantage of utilizing their equity gains.”

Cash payments, propelled by high interest rates and buyers tapping into proceeds from selling their current properties, remained a popular way to buy a home. Nationally, all-cash sales accounted for 26% of transactions in July, up from 24% in July 2022. In Northern Virginia, cash sales accounted for 19% of all sales in July, up from 15% in July 2022.

NVAR reports on home sales for Fairfax and Arlington counties as well as the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.

According to an Aug. 11 report from NVAR:

  • The number of closed sales in July 2023 was 1,444 units, a 20% drop compared with July 2022 and a 23.5% compared to June 2023.
  • The sold volume in July 2023 totaled more than $1.15 billion, a 16.5% decrease compared with July 2022 and a 23.9% decrease compared to June 2023.
  • The average sold price for a home in July 2023 was $806,574, an increase of 4.9% from July 2022 and down 0.8% from June 2023.
  • The number of active listings in July 2023 was 1,445, down from June 2023, when there were 1,567 listings.
  • The total number of new pending sales in July 2023 was 1,507, a 4.4% decrease month over month.

AREP, partners acquire Ashburn townhome community

CityHouse Ashburn Station, a 200-unit luxury townhome community in Loudoun County, has sold for $120 million.

New York-based Rithm Capital, McLean-based American Real Estate Partners and New Jersey-based GreenBarn Investment Group closed the purchase from Dream Finders Homes on Monday.

AREP and GreenBarn are co-general partners for the project. Rithm is providing equity capital, in part through its partnership with GreenBarn, and providing debt financing through its Genesis subsidiary.

Phase one of CityHouse Ashburn Station will be available to rent in mid-August. The team will deliver the remaining phases over the next 15 months.

“With this acquisition, our partnership is taking an opportunistic investment approach to redefine and elevate the [build-to-rent] sector, one that encapsulates AREP’s signature strategy of creating truly unique properties in vibrant and emerging locations and our agility to invest in high-impact niches of the real estate market,” Brian Katz, AREP co-founder and president, said in a statement.

CityHouse Ashburn Station is located near the Silver Line’s Ashburn Station Metro stop.  Unit sizes will average 2,000 square feet and offer attached garages, large island kitchens, full-size side-by-side washer and dryers and smart home functionality with resident amenities including sports courts, communal outdoor green spaces, pet-friendly facilities and indoor/outdoor entertainment areas.

Tight housing markets continue in NoVa, Hampton Roads

Home sales in Northern Virginia in June were up 3.6% from the previous month, but still down 16% compared with the same period a year ago, according to a report from the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors released Wednesday.

“Many factors” are pointing to the region’s market normalizing when comparing it to five-year trends, the report says.

“Homes continue to sell quickly, making sellers happy, and supply was up slightly compared to last month, which gave buyers a few more choices,” NVAR Board Member Casey Sutherland, a principal with Alexandria-based Rosemont Real Estate LLC, said in a statement. “The housing market is more rational than from the past few years, but many potential sellers remain sidelined, holding on to their better mortgage rates.”

The average home spent 13 days on the market in June, up 8.3% compared with June 2022 and consistent with May 2023. That’s getting closer to the five-year average for June at 15 days on the market. This is another sign that the market is moving back to more of a balanced state for buyers, NVAR says, though with sales still the below the 5-year average, the market remains competitive.

Inventory is also trending backward to the five-year average. The supply of inventory in June was 1.1 months, down 1.5% from June 2022, but close to the five-year June average of 1.2 months. That’s an increase over May 2023, when supply was 0.98 months of inventory.

Home prices continued to increase from June 2022 but leveled off from May 2023. The median sold price for a home in June 2023 was $717,999, up 4.9% from June 2022 and up 0.4% compared with May 2023.

“Our market has traditionally had less supply and stronger demand compared to many other housing markets, largely due to our healthy job market,” NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin said in a statement. “We expect demand will remain strong, favoring sellers but with a larger dose of normal that will give buyers a little more say.”

NVAR in June released a mid-year update to its NVAR Region 2023 Residential Real Estate Market Forecast. The forecast noted that a continued lack of housing inventory, soft demand creating a sellers’ market and favorable economic conditions tinged by mounting risks from inflation and other factors will lead to tighter inventories, sales declines and stable prices through the remainder of the year in the Northern Virginia market.

NVAR reports on home sales for Fairfax and Arlington counties as well as the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton. According to NVAR:

  • The number of closed sales in June 2023 was 1,887 units.
  • The sold volume in June 2023 totaled more than $1.5 billion, a 12.8% decrease compared to June 2022 and up 6% compared to May 2023.
  • The average sales price in June 2023 was $813,101, an increase of 3% from June 2022 and an increase of 1.5% from May of 2023.
  • The number of active listings in June 2023 was 1,567, down 32.2% from June 2022 and below the five-year June average of 2,244 active listings.
  • The total number of pending sales in June 2023 was 1,522, a 25.9% decrease compared to June 2022.

HAMPTON ROADS

While homes are still selling quickly in Northern Virginia, median sales prices (MSP) in Hampton Roads set a record for the second straight month in June, according to the Real Estate Information Network.

In June, the MSP for homes across Hampton Roads reached $345,000, up from May’s MSP of $335,000. 

June also saw increases in active listings and settled sales from the previous month, but active listings and settled sales are down significantly compared to June 2022.

“Seasonally, the month-over-month increases were expected, but they’re still important,” REIN Board of Directors President Jon McAchran, principal broker and co-founder of Virginia Beach-based AtCoastal Realty, said in a statement. “However, when we compare active listings and settled sales to last year, we’re still well below 2022 numbers, and inventory continues to be lower than where we need it to be for a healthy, balanced market.” 

The months’ supply of inventory (MSI) for June was 1.47, a month-over-month increase of 1.37 in May, and year-over-year from 1.33 in June 2022.

“The MSI is up mainly due to slowing sales, which in itself is being impacted by a lack of inventory, causing price increases,” McAchran said.

REIN is the multiple listing service in Hampton Roads, with coverage from Williamsburg to Virginia Beach and extending to the North Carolina boarder. It includes more than 9,000 members and licensees, including brokers, agents, appraisers and other real estate professionals. 

According to June data from REIN:

  • Active residential listings for June were 3,366, a 4.6% increase from 3,217 in May, but down 18.1% year-over-year from 4,114 in June 2022. 
  • Pending sales stood at 2,517. That’s down 11.8% from 2,856 in May and down 15.5% from 3,074 year-over-year. 
  • Settled sales during the month were 2,667. That’s a 6.6% increase from May, but down 19.7% from 3,320 in June 2022. 
  • Median days on market for residential listings was 11, the same as in May and an increase from nine days in June 2022.
  • Residential new construction sales were 257, up from 252 in May and down from 292 from June 2022. 

Arlington residents sue over ‘missing middle’ zoning

Ten Arlington County residents filed a lawsuit against the county in April that claims Arlington’s new “missing middle” zoning ordinance was passed in March without proper notice and violates Virginia law.

“Missing middle” refers to the range of options that fall between affordable housing and single-family homes, including duplexes and other higher-density residences. On March 22, with an aim of providing more housing options, the Arlington County Board unanimously approved the plan, ending single-family-only zoning and allowing up to a sixplex in some areas. The vote drew close to 200 residents speaking for and against it.

“We are part of a dynamic, vibrant community in Arlington. … That is not a bad thing. In fact, it’s a damn good thing,” Arlington Board Chairman Christian Dorsey said after the vote, which followed three years of work. “Certainly, it’s our responsibility to think about how we accommodate [growth].”

In April, the average Arlington home price was $837,632, according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.

The 10 plaintiffs suing the board and planning commission say the vote came without enough explanation, was “unlawful and rushed,” and would create “drastically” higher density in lower-density neighborhoods. Moreover, the lawsuit claims, the missing middle zoning amendment “increases density without promoting goals … such as affordability or homeownership by diverse families and incomes.”

The plaintiffs’ attorney, Gifford R. Hampshire, a partner with Fairfax-based Blankingship & Keith PC, declined to comment on behalf of the plaintiffs. The county also declined comment.

However, the plaintiffs’ views don’t represent those of all Arlington stakeholders. Ashley Goff, who lives in the county’s Green Valley neighborhood and is a leader with Virginians Organized for Interfaith Community Engagement (VOICE), advocated for the zoning change and defends the decision as transparent.

She says residents now have expanded housing choices, adding that some homeowners started calling the county before the plan took effect July 1, expressing interest in demolishing their single-family homes to build duplexes or triplexes. The county’s housing department would not confirm details, saying only that it has “received inquiries” from interested property owners.

Eric Berkey, a member of Arlington’s Citizens Advisory Commission on Housing, which backed the amendment, says high housing costs have far-reaching consequences for residents and is a systemic problem. “The fundamental question is who gets to live in a neighborhood. … What makes a community?”

NoVa housing forecast: sellers’ market to continue

Northern Virginia’s housing market will likely remain a sellers’ market for the rest of 2023, according to a Northern Virginia Association of Realtors market forecast released June 6.

NVAR and George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis predict a continuing housing inventory shortage and pent-up demand from buyers amid positive economic conditions but mounting risks.

“Higher interest rates are impacting both buyers and sellers, causing housing inventories to be even tighter than during the pandemic, but with slightly softer demand pressures,” NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin said in a statement.

Mortgage rates have receded from recent highs but remain higher than pre-pandemic rates. For the week ending June 8, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was 6.71%, the first decline after a three-week climb, according to Freddie Mac data. While pricing remains strong, low housing inventory has decreased the number of units sold by about 20% from pre-pandemic norms.

GMU’s Center for Regional Analysis and industry experts predict that demand in Northern Virginia will remain soft compared with the last two years because some households are priced out of the market by higher mortgage rates. However, there is pent-up housing demand, and buyers seem to be accepting higher mortgage rates, especially since monthly rent rates are also increasing.

The forecast expects existing housing inventory shortages to increase, as current homeowners are less likely to move if they locked in lower mortgage rates. On average, the report predicts unit sales will decline from about 10% to 15%, compared with 2022.

“It will be hard to justify leaving a home with a refinanced loan below 3% for another home with a higher price and a loan rate that could be doubled,” said Terry Clower, director of GMU-CRA and the Northern Virginia chair of GMU’s Schar School of Policy and Government, in a statement.

Prices remain relatively stable, and NVAR and GMU-CRA expect prices to increase about 1% to 2% because of factors with conflicting effects: affordability and lessening demand versus low inventory and a resilient labor market.

The report includes expectations for three submarkets: Fairfax and Arlington counties and the City of Alexandria.

In Fairfax County, the largest locality in NVAR’s region, single-family home prices are predicted to have an average 0.7% price gain, while total unit sales will drop 10% for the year and inventories will drop 13%.

Fairfax County townhouses will lose 22% of inventory, and total unit sales will drop 15% annually. Median prices are expected to increase by 0.4%. The condo market will likely see a 23% decrease in sales and an average 4.3% rise in prices.

The average prices for single-family homes in Arlington are expected to increase 9.2%, with sales decreasing by 4% and inventories continuing to drop — the average number of units for sale will decrease by 7%.

Arlington townhome prices will remain flat because of dropping inventory, and the condo market will also have low inventory as condo owners stay put due to mortgage rates and a lack of available alternative housing options.

In Alexandria, home prices will increase about 1.6% as prices become less volatile, according to the report. Alexandria is expected to have a better sales trend than other markets in the region, with an increase in 5.4%, or 19 homes. Single-family housing supply in Alexandria will continue to decline but remain above late 2021 levels.

The Alexandria townhome market will likely see flat inventory levels, and unit sales will drop about 15% to about 619 units. Prices will rise about 3%, according to the forecast. Condo sales are expected to decline by about 17%. The annual average condo price will increase about 8%.

NVAR reports home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.

Hampton Roads housing inventory rises, listings still low

Residential inventory in Hampton Roads has risen slightly from last year, although active listings remain below pre-pandemic levels, according to April data from the Real Estate Information Network Inc. (REIN).

Active listings in April were down 0.97% year-over-year from the 3,187 listings that REIN recorded in April 2022. Pending sales stood at 2,363, down 21% from last year. Settled sales were down 27% from April 2022, with 2,053 sales last month.

The month’s supply of inventory (MSI), a calculation of how long there would be homes on the market if no new inventory was added, was 1.32 in April, up from 1.01 in April 2022. The MSI in March was 1.27.

“Interest rates continue to fluctuate, and that’s causing hesitation for some potential buyers, but the lack of inventory remains our biggest challenge here in Hampton Roads,” Jon McAchran with AtCoastal Realty and president of the REIN board of directors said in a statement. “Consumers are still looking to buy. They just need more homes, and the right homes, for them to choose from.”

The median sales price (MSP) in Hampton Roads remained at $320,000, the same MSP as March. That’s a 0.20% increase from April 2022, which had an MSP of $319,375. Last month, the South Hampton Roads MSP was $330,000, while the Virginia Peninsula’s MSP was $297,512. In South Hampton Roads, Virginia Beach had the highest MSP, at $365,000. James City County had an MSP of $480,000.

Residential listings spent a median of 12 days on the market in April, down from 15 days in March and up from seven days last year.

“Buyers are becoming increasingly discerning in their choices, mostly due to the increased costs due to the higher interest rates, but they’re also acting quickly when a home that matches their criteria comes on the market,” McAchran said in a statement.

Residential new construction sales numbered 277, down 7.58% from the 306 recorded in April 2022.

Compared with March, the region’s active residential listings rose slightly from the 3,124 recorded then. Pending sales in April dropped 11.8% from March’s 2,578. Settled sales dropped 9.9%, down from 2,277 in March.

Founded in 1969, REIN is a regional multiple listing services that covers an area stretching from Williamsburg east to Virginia Beach and south across the North Carolina border.

Va. spring housing market has slow start

Virginia’s residential real estate market is off to a slow start this spring.

Virginia home sales in March dropped 24% from March 2022, marking the 16th consecutive month of declining sales, and the median sales price dropped year-over-year for the first time in seven years, according to a Virginia Realtors report released Thursday.

Virginia home sales totaled 8,709 in March, a decrease of 2,737 sales than in the same month in 2022. The number of sales in March last fell below 9,000 in 2016, and new sales contracts last month were at the lowest level the state has seen in more than a decade, according to Virginia Realtors.

Sales rose 33.9% from February, which reflects a typical seasonal spike, Virginia Realtors reported.

“Virginia’s spring housing market is off to a slow start, resulting in some downward pressure on price levels; however, the state’s tight level of inventory is keeping prices somewhat insulated in many markets,” Virginia Realtors Chief Economist Ryan Price said in a statement.

Higher mortgage rates also provided downward pressure on sales. In the week ending March 30, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.32%, up from 4.67% in the week ending March 31, 2022, according to Freddie Mac data.

The statewide median sales price in March was $370,000, a decrease of $5,000 or 1.3% from March 2022. The median sales price in Virginia peaked in spring 2022 at more than $401,000. Nonetheless, about 64% of Virginia counties and cities had a higher median sales price in March compared with last year, with the strongest growth in areas of the Shenandoah Valley, the Lynchburg region, the Greater Piedmont region and parts of South Central Virginia.

The largest market price segment in Virginia remains the $200,001 to $400,000 range, which comprised 43.8% of all sales in March.

Virginia homes are staying on the market longer on average, continuing a trend over the past eight months. In March, the statewide average for days on the market was 35 days, 11 days longer than the same month last year.

The commonwealth had 15,108 active listings on the market at the end of March, up 1,498 listings from last year’s number. New listings totaled 11,505, down 3,312 listings from last year, a 22.4% drop. Virginia had about 1.5 months of supply in the housing market in March, up from a 1.1-month supply a year ago.

Despite slowing sales, the market remains competitive for buyers due to low inventory and pent-up demand. Virginia’s average sold-to-list price ratio rose above 100% (to 100.2%) in March for the first time in six months, meaning that on average, sellers are getting more than their asking prices.

“Virginia is seeing some mixed signals in our spring market data,” Virginia Realtors President Katrina M. Smith said in a statement. “The median home price has fallen slightly, but buyer demand has somewhat shielded prices. Active listings are staying on the market longer, but fewer new listings are coming available. This data signals a slower spring market that is likely to remain competitive for Virginia’s buyers.”

Virginia Realtors is a trade association representing more than 38,000 Realtors.