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Democrats sweep Va. General Assembly

Updated Nov. 8

Democrats regained control of the Virginia Senate and the House of Delegates in Tuesday’s elections, likely putting a damper on Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s legislative agenda and potential 2024 presidential aspirations. As of 11:45 p.m. Tuesday, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, Democrats won 21 out of 40 seats in the state Senate and 51 seats in the House, which has been held by Republicans for the past two years.

This electoral outcome will likely prevent Youngkin from passing most of his agenda, including placing a 15-week limit on abortions, which was a significant issue for many voters, particularly Democrats and women. It may also at least temporarily lessen his national standing, as he failed to deliver a red wave as he did during his 2021 election, which saw Republicans elected to the state’s top three offices and the GOP take control of the House.

The election also sets up Virginia House Minority Leader Don Scott Jr. of Portsmouth to become the first Black speaker of the House in the Virginia legislature’s 400-plus-year history, replacing GOP Speaker Todd Gilbert, who has presided over the House of Delegates since January 2022.

Virginia’s blue wave followed a national trend, as Ohio voters approved ballot measures guaranteeing abortion access and legalizing recreational marijuana use. Meanwhile, in Kentucky, voters granted a second term to Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, who had campaigned on making Kentucky’s abortion laws less restrictive.

Republicans won 19 Virginia State Senate seats. The Associated Press called a Williamsburg-area nailbiter at 2:15 p.m. Wednesday in favor of GOP challenger Danny Diggs, who defeated Democratic incumbent Monty Mason. The final count saw Diggs with 32,764 votes, or 50.69% of the total, and Mason with 31,742 votes.

In the House, Republicans held 48 seats as of 2:45 p.m. Wednesday, with one race not yet called. Republican Del. Kim Taylor’s race against Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams in Petersburg and Dinwiddie County was too close to call, with Taylor ahead with 50.23% of the vote and less than a 200-vote margin over Adams. Taylor declared victory late Tuesday, but Adams had not conceded as of Wednesday afternoon.

Two other close House races went in Republicans’ favor: District 57’s contest in Henrico County between Democrat Susanna Gibson and Republican David Owen, a race that received national press following revelations that Gibson had performed sex acts with her husband on a live streaming pornography website while soliciting tips from viewers. Owen won with 51.16% of the vote, gaining 17,878 votes to Gibson’s 16,912. In James City County and Williamsburg, Republican Del. Amanda Batten won a third term with 51.93% of the vote over Democrat Jessica Anderson.

Voters went to the polls Tuesday to fill all 140 General Assembly seats. Many candidates were new faces or, at least, less experienced than those who previously filled the legislature, thanks to the December 2021 redistricting process, which redrew political districts without prioritizing the residential addresses of incumbents. That led to an unprecedented wave of retirements and some primary defeats of longtime legislators.

Blue wave

In several of the most hotly contested races, Democrats came up victorious Tuesday night.

In Loudoun and Fauquier counties, Democrat Russet Perry, a former CIA officer and prosecutor, won Senate District 31 with 52.5% of the vote as of 10:28 p.m. Tuesday, according to unofficial results from the Virginia Department of Elections. She defeated Republican Juan Pablo Segura, a health care tech entrepreneur who founded a local doughnut chain. Segura received 40,835 votes compared to Perry’s 45,350 votes, and the Associated Press estimated 92% of votes had been counted by 10:25 p.m., when it called the race.

Segura conceded about an hour later. “We were outspent but not outworked,” he said in a statement. “We knocked on more than 100,000 doors and talked to many, many thousands of voters about their hopes, dreams and concerns. … I also want to congratulate Russet Perry on a hard-fought race, and I wish her the best of luck in representing this special place. Lessons are learned in losses, but I heard very clearly the deep desire from so many in this district for better representation from their government.”

Both were first-time candidates, and Perry outpaced all other state legislature candidates in fundraising more than $6 million by Oct. 31, while Segura raised a bit more than $5 million.

Del. Danica Roem, another Democratic delegate seeking a Senate seat, beat Republican candidate Bill Woolf for the 30th District seat in Manassas and part of Prince William County with 51.51% of the vote. Roem, who became the nation’s first openly transgender state lawmaker upon her 2017 election to the House of Delegates, won 29,713 votes to Woolf’s 27,794 as of 10:13 p.m., according to unofficial results from the Virginia Department of Elections. A former journalist, Roem currently represents House District 13, which includes Manassas Park and part of Prince William County. Woolf was formerly a detective with the Fairfax County Police Department.

“I’m grateful the people of Virginia’s 30th Senate District elected me to continue representing my lifelong home of western Prince William County and greater Manassas,” Roem said in a statement. “The voters have shown they want a leader who will prioritize fixing roads, feeding kids and protecting our land instead of stigmatizing trans kids or taking away your civil rights.”

In another key seat, Democratic Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg won Senate District 16 in western Henrico County with 52.69% of the vote as of 9:38 p.m. Tuesday, according to unofficial results from the Virginia Department of Elections. The Associated Press estimated more than 95% of votes had been counted by 9:33 p.m.

VanValkenburg received 27,469 votes to Republican Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant’s 24,544 as of 9:43 p.m. Although the incumbent, Dunnavant was redistricted into a slightly bluer district than her previous district, which had included part of Hanover County. The race was considered a key contest to watch this year and saw some of the largest fundraising among Virginia’s legislative races.

The Associated Press called House District 58 race in western Henrico County in favor of the Democratic two-term incumbent Del. Rodney Willett, a tech consultant and small business entrepreneur, who took 11,897 of votes, or 53.1%, over Republican challenger Riley Shaia, a physical therapist, who won 10,496 votes, or 46.9%. AP called the race with 95% of votes counted.

Off-off election year

Numerous incumbents retired or lost primaries after being drawn into the same districts as other incumbents. Particularly in the state Senate, longtime party leaders chose to bow out rather than face a primary battle, leaving younger and less moderate candidates running for office this fall.

Although 2023 was, at least in name, an off-off election year with no presidential or statewide races topping the ballots, legislative candidates in competitive districts saw a massive influx of money and heated rhetoric from both parties. High stakes, including Virginia’s status as the only Southern state without significant abortion restrictions, were riding on whether either party can take control of the commonwealth’s legislature, which is currently split, with Republicans running the House of Delegates and Democrats controlling the state Senate.

Although his name wasn’t on ballots, Youngkin’s presidential hopes also rested on Tuesday’s results, drawing national attention. If Republicans had won back control of the General Assembly, Youngkin could have mounted a plausible last-minute campaign for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, politicos forecast. But with Democrats regaining power of just one of the legislative bodies, Youngkin will be unlikely to pass much of his stated agenda through the General Assembly, including a ban on abortions after 15 weeks and tax cuts for corporations, with the blue wave likely putting any presidential ambitions he has on hold, at least for 2024.

In a press conference Wednesday, Youngkin called the outcome “a razor-thin set of decisions” made by voters and noted the commonwealth’s recent history of changes in party control, downplaying Republicans’ disappointing results. “I think what that reflects is that we are a state that is very comfortable working together, working across party lines to get things done.”

In response to a reporter’s question about his presidential ambitions, Youngkin was predictably coy. “I have answered this question the same way for a long time. I am focused on Virginia. I have been in Virginia. My name is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. I have not been in Iowa. I am not in South Carolina. I am in Virginia, and I look forward to staying focused on Virginia, just like I have been.”

With issues such as parental influence in schools, reproductive rights, cannabis retail sales and corporate tax cuts in the balance, Democratic- and Republican-affiliated PACs sank millions into legislative campaigns this year. According to an Associated Press story, money raised by Virginia State Senate and House of Delegates candidates this year eclipsed totals from 2019. As of early November, Senate candidates had raised $80.8 million, compared to $53.6 million at the same point in 2019, and House candidates raised $77.5 million, compared to $67.5 million in 2019.

Both Republicans and Democrats emphasized the historic nature of the election, which could determine the state’s abortion, clean energy, education and tax policies for decades to come — although the parties differ widely on their overall goals.

Youngkin and state Republicans advocated to enact limits on abortions after 15 weeks, a rollback of Virginia’s current laws allowing abortions up to 26 weeks, although, in the third trimester, three doctors must sign off on the procedure as medically necessary. Democrats, meanwhile, have argued that the 15-week limit, posed as a reasonable compromise by Republicans, would be the first of many restrictions on abortion following the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade last year.

Parents’ involvement in their children’s K-12 education remained a hot topic, carrying on from Youngkin’s winning gambit in 2021’s gubernatorial race, when he focused attention on a Loudoun County sexual assault case, in which a 14-year-old male student sexually assaulted a female student in a school restroom and then was allowed to transfer to another high school, where he abducted and assaulted another student. The teen was later convicted in juvenile court, and in September, Youngkin pardoned one of the victims’ fathers, who had been arrested and charged with obstruction of justice and disorderly conduct at a county school board meeting.

Republican state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant greets voters at a Henrico County polling place on Nov. 7, 2023. Photo by Katherine Schulte

Last week, the governor issued an executive order mandating that school districts inform parents within 24 hours of any overdoses involving their schools, after Loudoun County Public Schools waited more than 20 days to report that nine high school students had overdosed on pills suspected of containing fentanyl. Youngkin also has ordered schools to inform parents if their children use a different gender identity at school than is their assigned sex. He has also required that students participate in sports and use bathrooms based on their assigned sex, a mandate some school systems have refused to enforce — particularly in Northern Virginia.

A Washington Post-George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government poll, conducted Oct. 11-16, showed a divided commonwealth going into the elections, with 47% of registered voters saying they would vote for a generic Democrat for delegate, and 43% for a Republican. Meanwhile, 70% of voters said education was the most important issue for them this year, followed by the economy at 68% and abortion rights at 60%.

According to VPAP, 789,848 people voted early across the state as of Monday, with Democratic voters making up about 60% of early voters, compared with about 40% for Republicans.

Virginia Department of Elections Commissioner Susan Beals said Tuesday afternoon that some localities’ ballots were longer than usual, with county supervisors, sheriffs and other local offices included, as well as state legislators. There was an issue with poll books reported at some Chesterfield County locations — but those were resolved by early afternoon, Beals said. At Williamsburg’s Matoaca precinct, where locally registered William & Mary students can vote, the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported “long lines all day.”

In Loudoun County, during Tuesday’s lunch hour at the town’s Ida Lee Park Recreation Center, West Leesburg voters turned out in a steady stream, which precinct chief Kevin Smith described as “one in, one out.” Morning was busiest, and 536 voters, out of a district of about 3,100, had cast their ballots by a little after 12:30 p.m., Smith said. Voters reported no issues or problems with machines, and the atmosphere outside, where the Loudoun County Republican Party had set up a tent to shade volunteers from the sun, was congenial as volunteers from either side of the aisle offered up sample ballots to would-be voters and shared occasional, friendly conversation across the sidewalk from folding chairs.

Steven Ritz, a retired Navy lieutenant commander voting at the recreation center, said he’s ordinarily a Republican but felt the party has strayed from the one he had known in the past, which he deemed “fiscally conservative, not rabid.” While he likened both parties to “monkeys flinging feces at each other,” he voted for Russet Perry, the Democrat who won the 31st District Senate seat. Perry, a former CIA officer who has also served as a county prosecutor, defeated Leesburg health-tech entrepreneur and District Donut co-founder Juan Pablo Segura in a race that focused largely on abortion and crime. Perry cast Segura in television ads as a “MAGA Republican” who wants to ban abortions; Segura volleyed back, casting his opponent as soft on crime and backed by “defund the police” groups.

Ritz voted with his gut. “Juan hasn’t been here in Leesburg that long. It looked to me opportunistic,” he said of Segura’s candidacy.

Other voters said they turned out particularly because of the abortion question. Shaun Meredith and his daughter, Rachel Meredith, said they voted for Perry. “Every woman should have a choice for her own body, to make that decision,” Rachel Meredith said.

In Virginia Senate District 16 in western Henrico County, voter turnout was steady overall with slight fluctuations throughout the morning in at least two precincts.

At about 12:50 p.m., the Echo Lake Elementary School polling location in the Coalpit precinct in Glen Allen had received 791 votes. “It’s been steady since we opened. There’s some periods where … we had a good little crowd for a while,” said Maurice Talley, a volunteer poll worker at the elementary school.

Incumbent Republican state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant stopped at the school to greet voters as she campaigned at multiple polling locations during her ultimately unsuccessful battle against her Democratic challenger, state Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg. Voters who recognized Dunnavant or her name after an introduction were enthusiastic, she said. “They’re excited to be turned out. They say, ‘You’ve got this. This is great,’” she said.

Angie Madison, a Glen Allen Pilates instructor who said she isn’t loyal to one party and goes back and forth depending on the issues, said she voted for Democratic candidates Tuesday. “I’m trying to do my part by voting Democratic and trying to vote for abortion rights and all that stuff,” she said. “It feels like we’re going back in time versus forward in time, so I want to go forward in time.”

High stakes, high rollers

According to VPAP, the following state Senate candidates raised the most money, as of Oct. 31:

Democrat Russet Perry — $6,071,414
Republican Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant — $5,104,711
Democrat Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg — $5,069,960
Democrat Sen. Monty Mason — $5,043,533
Republican Juan Pablo Segura — $5,003,665

Among delegate candidates, Democrats dominated fundraising:

Democrat Joshua Cole — $3,816,605
Democrat Michael Feggans — $3,255,257
Democrat Josh Thomas — $3,198,811
Republican Del. Karen Greenhalgh — $2,778,182
Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams — $2,706,971

Not surprisingly, familiar names were among the biggest donors in the elections. The Virginia Senate Democratic Caucus donated $7.5 million for Democratic candidates, while Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC doled out $4.8 million to GOP candidates. Dominion Energy and the Clean Virginia Fund — a fund created by Charlottesville millionaire Michael Bills to dilute the political influence of Dominion — gave just over $4 million each to Senate candidates this year.

In the House races, the House Democratic Caucus donated $10.8 million, while the Republican Commonwealth Leadership PAC gave $4.1 million. Dominion and the Clean Virginia Fund made donations of $3.8 million and $3.6 million, respectively.

For those watching broadcast television in the days before the elections, negative ads ran thick and fast in competitive districts, and Youngkin blazed a trail across the state to get out Republican voters to the polls for early voting in October and early November. Democrats, meanwhile, called on Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and gun-control advocate David Hogg to get out the vote.

In Richmond’s casino battle redux, Churchill Downs and Urban One, corporate backers of the proposed $562 million Richmond Grand Resort & Casino, sank more than $10 million into their campaign to pass the city’s second casino referendum, almost four times the amount spent in 2021 and more than for any individual candidate running this year. Ultimately, the second referendum failed by a 58% to 42% margin.

Battlefield Virginia

It’s a nerve-wracking time this fall for a small group of campaign managers, with the balance of power in the General Assembly coming down to a handful of close political races.

In House District 97, freshman Republican Del. Karen Greenhalgh is defending her Virginia Beach-centered seat against Michael Feggans, a Democrat who grew up in the city and served in the Air Force.

It’s a key, front-line race in the high-stakes battle for control of Virginia’s state legislature, with all 140 seats in the Senate and House of Delegates up for election this fall. (Early voting began Sept. 22 for the Nov. 7 general election.) Following extensive redistricting and an exodus of retiring legislators, politicos say it’s a tough call how the elections will shake out, but the outcome could determine the Assembly’s balance of political power for years to come. Races for both chambers will be closely fought, with the future of abortion access, tax laws, budget priorities and labor issues all in question.

According to the Virginia Public Access Project, District 97 is one of the state’s most competitive races this cycle. The district went 2.2 points for Republicans in 2021 and 5.2 points for Democrats in 2022. As of the Aug. 31 campaign finance reporting deadline, Feggans has raised $890,000 and Greenhalgh $852,955.

Greenhalgh founded Heritage Woodworks, a cabinet-manufacturing company she later sold, and Cyber Tygr, a business that addresses cybersecurity issues in health care. She also works as a manager for local crisis pregnancy centers, clinics that provide care — but not abortion services — to pregnant women. Four of 17 bills on which Greenhalgh was chief sponsor or chief co-sponsor passed last session. She was chief sponsor of legislation that would have expanded the parameters of written consent by people seeking abortions; the bill was killed in committee by the Democratic-held Virginia State Senate.

She also supports a 15-week ban on abortions favored by Gov. Glenn Youngkin and other Republicans, while Feggans has voiced his support for current state law, which allows abortions through the second trimester and requires approval from three doctors before a third-trimester procedure.

The candidates themselves say they’re running for office for less-complicated reasons.

“I have people in my district who are just like me, who live paycheck to paycheck,” Greenhalgh says. “As far as it being a swing district, no matter which party you tend to vote for, we want the same things: We want safe neighborhoods. We want good schools for our kids. We want good jobs to support families. Those are the dreams that everyone in my district has for their families and their children. I look for ways to make sure we don’t lose those opportunities in Virginia.”

Meanwhile, Feggans, who worked in health services management and started a cybersecurity company, touts his Air Force service and local and political ties. He previously interned in U.S. Sen. Mark Warner’s Norfolk office and for the state secretary of technology and earned his master’s degree in cybersecurity from Norfolk State University.

“I took all the experiences invested in me for 20 years to give back to the community that nurtured me,” Feggans says. “We know we have a pathway to victory. Virginia Beach is a military town. Not only my service record in the military, but my service to the community reflects who Virginia Beach is. I’m a product of Virginia Beach Public Schools and a product of Virginia colleges. I know I have a lot to offer to the city that raised me.”

On the verge

However homespun the candidates sound, politicos acknowledge that Virginia’s blueish reputation and recent legislative gridlock could change radically next year if the GOP wins a few tight races. Should Republicans attain majorities in both chambers, they have a chance to reframe Virginia politics. Corporate tax cuts and restrictions on abortion would be almost certainties.

“Democrats have been on the surge, but there’s a real possibility Republicans hold the House and take the Senate,” says political analyst A.J. Nolte, an assistant professor at Regent University’s Robertson School of Government. “They might have a trifecta for the first time in the state in a long time. That’s potentially an earthquake. People have gotten used to the idea Virginia is a more blue state, but let’s not forget [that] Republicans held both chambers as recently as 2018. Unified Democratic control is more recent.”

After a Republican ticket led by Gov. Bob McDonnell swept the 2009 races, Democrats won every subsequent statewide office — including both U.S. senatorial seats, governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general — until the GOP slate led by Gov. Glenn Youngkin won in 2021.

For his part, Youngkin has been active in raising money for Republican candidates in the June primaries and November’s general elections. In a very real sense, his political reputation and potential presidential aspirations are also on the line this fall. (See related story.)

Republicans are being propelled by Youngkin, who endorsed 10 successful candidates in key Republican primaries, and his Spirit of Virginia political action committee, which raised $5.9 million as of June 30.

“The governor made it a priority to recruit and endorse candidates in those races to make sure we had the strongest possible candidates going into the election cycle,” says David Rexrode, an adviser to the governor and chairman of Youngkin’s PAC.

This election, Rexrode says, “The No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 issues are — order varies by district — jobs and economy, education and public safety. That’s what our candidates are talking about because that’s what our voters care about.”

‘Gutter politics’

Meanwhile, Democrats largely are training their attacks on former President Donald Trump’s continuing influence in the Republican Party, and the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling, which overturned the federal right to abortion, ceding authority to states.

“Frankly, the stakes couldn’t be higher for Virginians, especially Virginia women,” says Liam Watson, press secretary for the Democratic Party of Virginia. “We all know what’s at stake this year is abortion rights — not just for Virginians but across the South. Virginia is the last Southern state without a post-Dobbs abortion ban. The GOP in Virginia right now at all levels is pushing for a ban on abortion. We know what Republicans are about; it’s not a mystery what they’d do if we give them full control of our government here in Richmond.”

Speaking about abortion access, Democratic Virginia House Minority Leader Don Scott of Portsmouth says, “The only people trying to pretend it’s not on the ballot are MAGA Republicans.”

Nolte says the Democratic caucus has been slowly transforming for years, but with mass retirements and primaries, moderates have largely given way to younger, more progressive candidates. Meanwhile, he adds, Youngkin’s money and influence largely overcame national trends and defeated “MAGA, flame-throwing folks” in GOP primaries, such as Del. Marie March and Sen. Amanda Chase, who lost battles against more moderate Republican challengers.

Youngkin’s Virginia organization “is heavily focused on training, heavily focused on [building] disciplined, technically proficient campaigns,” Nolte says, but is “not as much focused on big-ticket messaging.”

In response to Youngkin’s PAC largesse, President Joe Biden in September directed the Democratic National Committee to add $1.2 million in contributions to Democrats running for Virginia legislative seats, bringing the DNC’s total to $1.5 million.

“When we had the majority, the biggest thing we did was make sure this economy works for everybody,” Scott says. “Virginia was named the No. 1 state for business in the country twice during that time. The governor now, who is supposed to be a business guy, hasn’t been able to accomplish that.”

Although many of the November candidates prefer to focus on local, less hot-button issues than abortion, it’s clear that the Virginia General Assembly’s more collegial, compromise-friendly tenor will change next year because of the number of retired legislators and lame-duck incumbents leaving office in January.

Lawmakers with a combined 649 years of legislative experience will not return to the General Assembly in 2024, according to former Republican Del. Chris Saxman, executive director of Virginia FREE, a nonpartisan, business-focused political organization.

The 2021 statewide redistricting placed a significant number of incumbents in the same district, leading to retirements and hard-bitten primaries. Many who made it through the June primaries now have a clear path to election in November due to the makeup of their districts, except in a handful of toss-up districts that will determine political control.

With both parties eager to motivate voters, competitive races are hinging largely on negative campaigning, says political analyst Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington and a longtime observer of the legislature.

“The key thing is getting your base out,” Farnsworth says. “The demonization of the other side is a tried-and-true strategy for getting your voters to actually turn out, and the way that’s done is to create sort of funhouse mirror images of the opposing party.”

One notable example is the battleground 57th District race for an open seat in Henrico and Goochland counties. In September, a Republican operative informed The Washington Post that Democratic candidate Susanna Gibson, a nurse practitioner, had performed sex acts with her attorney husband for tips on a streaming porn website, leading to a slew of spicy national headlines. The operative has denied any connection with Gibson’s GOP opponent, David Owen, former co-owner of Goochland-based Boone Homes. Gibson has framed the incident as “gutter politics” and an attempt to intimidate, silence and humiliate her. Her attorney has argued that the leaked content violates the state’s revenge porn laws, however Gibson knowingly appeared live on a porn website that didn’t require a password for access.

Democratic state Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg is running for state Senate in Henrico against an incumbent who he says is “drastically out of touch” with constituents on abortion access. Photo courtesy of Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg

Negative campaigning only exacerbates a concurrent shift that mirrors national politics — a growing number of elected officials are less likely to cross party lines in support of bipartisan, moderate policies.

“When elections are conducted in this fashion, you find very few moderates elected and find very little opportunity for compromise,” Farnsworth says, “because, after all, you basically spent the general election making the argument the other side is in thrall to the things your voters hate. Increasingly, Virginia is looking a lot like Capitol Hill when it comes to partisan gridlock and hot-button issues.”

The new lines could end up favoring Democrats because the new districts skew the balance of power to suburbs, whether in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads or the Richmond metro region, Farnsworth notes, so candidates on both sides are carefully tailoring their campaign messages to appeal to moderates.

Walking a fine line

Take Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, a two-term Republican incumbent from western Henrico County. An OB/GYN, she was the only Republican to join Democrats in defeating Greenhalgh’s abortion information bill.

She won an open seat in 2015, then eked out a narrow re-election victory amid the Democratic wave of 2019. She’s now running in Senate District 16, which went for Democrats by 6 percentage points in 2021 and 10 percentage points in 2022, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.

Positioning herself as a common-sense moderate, incumbent Republican state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant is running to keep her seat in a Henrico district she describes as “purple.” Photo courtesy Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant

Dunnavant, who pitches herself as a down-to-earth citizen legislator in pursuit of straightforward fixes to policy problems, is running against Democrat Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg, a Henrico County teacher who has served in the House since 2018. It’s a must-win for both parties as they seek control of the Democratic-held Senate.

“I am in one of those purple seats that is even more favorable for Democrats,” Dunnavant says, “and yet, I’ve won it before, and I’ll win it again because of the fact that I actually work hard on common-sense bills that make a difference in my constituents’ lives.”

Dunnavant has focused on bipartisan legislation she sponsored to standardize health care records and establish dual-enrollment credits among high schools, community colleges and public four-year universities. But she also generally backs Youngkin’s position to place restrictions on abortion after 15 weeks, with exceptions for rape, incest, life of the mother and severe birth defects, and to restrict the procedure altogether in the third trimester. VanValkenburg, who did not respond to interview requests, has said that Dunnavant’s position on abortion is “drastically out of touch.”

Through Aug. 31, Dunnavant raised $1.9 million, and VanValkenburg brought in $1.6 million.

On the Democratic side, Sen. Montgomery “Monty” Mason of Williamsburg has focused his campaign to retain the seat he’s held since 2017 on his business background, which includes his current job as a senior director for Visa and his previous stint as chairman of the Williamsburg Economic Development Authority board. Mason says he’s well-positioned to run in a seat that leaned 1.1 points toward Democrats in 2022, according to VPAP.

“I’m a good person to give a 50/50 district to,” Mason says. “I’m a moderate. I have a lot of veterans in my district. Of course, school safety and discussions about gun safety and how to protect children have been an enormous topic of conversation.”

Mason says a large contingent of military veterans in the district have expressed support for Republican-backed tax relief, while a significant number of voters are talking about safety and funding for schools.

As of Aug. 31, Mason raised $2 million, and his Republican challenger, Danny Diggs, raised $1.3 million.

Mason’s biggest funder so far this year is Dominion Energy, a polarizing campaign donor. Many Democrats have received money from the utility, but others have made a point of rejecting its donations. The latter have been supported by Clean Virginia, a PAC that supports candidates who spurn Dominion funding. In March, Clean Virginia said it expected to spend $2.5 million on Virginia elections this year.

Dominion has made significant contributions to Republicans and Democrats for years, but the Fortune 500 utility’s expansive influence has become a source of controversy, particularly among Democratic delegates in fierce primary battles. As of Aug. 31, Dominion had contributed $3.2 million to Democratic PACs and candidates in state races, and $2.6 million to Republicans, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.

With more legislators caught up in partisan or intraparty political battles than ever before, businesses and individuals who wish to stay in the good graces of whoever holds the power in Richmond face hard choices.

“In today’s Virginia politics, there will be a lot more lawmaking from a more decidedly liberal or decidedly conservative perspective,” Farnsworth says. “That means that elections have higher stakes in terms of the outcome, but they also are more risky for business. If you back the wrong party, that’s bad for you.”

RELATED STORY: Youngkin’s 2024 tightrope walk depends on Va. elections

‘A generational shift’

Updated June 29

Politicians like to suggest every new election is the most important of our lifetimes, but Virginia’s off-off-year state legislative elections in 2023 might actually live up to the billing for once.

In November, voters will elect representatives to all 140 seats in the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates, in the first campaign season since the state redrew districts through an unprecedented process outside lawmaker control. To compound matters, a startling number of legislators are retiring or competing against fellow incumbents in new “double-bunked” districts created by the December 2021 redistricting.

These factors contribute to a generational election that will determine Virginia’s legislative future for years to come.

“This upheaval has literally never happened in the history of Virginia,” says Greg Habeeb, a former state delegate and president of Gentry Locke Consulting, a Richmond lobbying, marketing and strategic communications firm. “We’ve never seen this raw number of retirements and departures coupled with the seniority of those people leaving.”

As an example, Habeeb points to the Senate Finance Committee — “the epicenter of the epicenter” of both power and the retirement wave. Committee chair Janet Howell of Reston is retiring after 31 years, along with fellow Democratic committee members John Edwards and Richard Saslaw, as well as Republicans Steve Newman, Tommy Norment and Jill Vogel.

Meanwhile, fellow Democratic committee members Sens. George Barker, Creigh Deeds, Louise Lucas and Dave Marsden all faced primaries. That left Democratic Sens. Adam Ebbin and Mamie Locke and Republican Sen. Frank Ruff as the only incumbent Senate Finance committee members guaranteed to run in November, although Deeds, Lucas and Marsden won their June 20 primaries.

Known for their moderate stances, Senate Majority Leader Richard Saslaw (left) and Senate Minority Leader Tommy Norment Jr. are both retiring this year. Photo by Alexa Welch Edlund/Richmond Times-Dispatch
via Associated Press

Many factors are converging into a perfect storm for remaking the legislature in 2023. For starters, Habeeb says, “it’s harder to do this job for a long time and have a family and private-sector job. Two, an inordinate number of senators had served for decades and naturally got to a point where they need to retire. Coupled with redistricting, that created this avalanche.”

A bipartisan commission created to redraw legislative districts ultimately deadlocked last year, leaving the process to the Supreme Court of Virginia, which appointed two special masters to carry out the task. Since lawmakers were no longer drawing lines out of self-interest, many ended up in new districts or sharing a district with one or two other incumbents.

“I think having those incumbent-versus-incumbent races was something that pushed the retirement rate up,” says J. Miles Coleman, associate editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

One example is Democratic Sen. John Edwards of Roanoke, who was drawn into a district with Republican Sen. David Suetterlein that voted 55% Republican in the 2021 gubernatorial election. Edwards opted to retire.

Other lawmakers faced primary challengers on June 20 — sometimes from fellow incumbents. One of the most dramatic examples played out in Hampton Roads, where longtime Democratic Sens. Louise Lucas and Lionel Spruill vied to represent Senate District 18.

Lucas, the Senate’s president pro tempore, beat Spruill with 54% of the vote in the Democratic primary, and incumbent Senate Democrats George Barker, Joe Morrissey and Chap Petersen all lost their primaries. Republican Senate incumbent Amanda Chase lost her primary to former state senator Glen Sturtevant. A strident Trump supporter who continues to argue baselessly that the 2020 election was “stolen,” Chase has disputed her own election results, claiming that early votes were made on computers that don’t comply with state law.

Retirements account for nearly a fifth of the House’s turnover and more than a quarter of the Senate’s. A Virginia Chamber of Commerce analysis suggests Virginia will see at least 11 new senators and 32 new delegates enter office in January 2024, although some may be familiar faces, with several delegates running for Senate, including Democrats Danica Roem in Prince William County and Schuyler VanValkenburg in Henrico County and Republican Christopher Head in Botetourt County.

It’s not just the sheer numbers of departing members that will affect the General Assembly, but also the depth of experience being lost.

“At a minimum, it’s 581 years of experience guaranteed not returning,” says Chris Saxman, a former state delegate and executive director of Virginia FREE, a nonpartisan business-focused political organization. Coupled with incumbent losses in primaries, Saxman adds, “We’re probably going to crest 600 years not returning. We’re in a generational shift.”

Turnover starts at top

In the state Senate, both parties’ leaders are stepping down after decades in office.

At the end of 2023, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Saslaw will have served 48 years in the Assembly, just short of the record 52 years set by the late Del. Lacey Putney. Republican Senate Minority Leader Norment has served for 30 years.

Together, the two relatively moderate leaders held the center of political power in the Senate for decades, playing leading roles in big, complex legislation affecting business, such as utility regulation, taxes and transportation funding. They cultivated a working relationship that largely kept the Senate a moderating force even as state politics grew more partisan and divisive.

“It’s almost hard to imagine the Senate without Dick Saslaw and Tommy Norment,” says University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. “They are big personalities and leaders that know how to get things done. They can be partisan but also bipartisan, whatever the situation calls for. They are the old model of Virginia legislators, more interested in getting things done than scoring points for their party. I wish more junior legislators would model themselves after the two of them.”

The list of retirements goes beyond Senate leadership to include Democrats and Republicans from across Virginia. New candidates are already stepping up to fill the void. Numerous delegates announced Senate campaigns, while newcomers emerged to run for both House and Senate seats.

No matter what, the chamber will look dramatically different after November.

“It’ll likely be younger, more diverse in both parties,” Saxman says. “New perspective, new generation, more partisan and more focused on winning their districts through the nomination phase than in the past.”

The impending legislative turnover is creating a fraught moment for businesses and trade associations that routinely invest in the campaigns of officials most likely to be on committees affecting their respective industries.

Habeeb says it’s still unclear whether the shift will increase or diminish the power of lobbyists and the businesses they represent. “Anyone who thinks they know what’s going to happen is lying to themselves and to their clients,” he says.

Quick change

Virginia remains a largely divided state, with intensely Democratic and Republican regions. Most of its districts are so partisan that nominees of the favored parties are all but guaranteed election. That leaves just a handful of tossup districts where the parties will fight to win control of the legislature.

“As big an impact as these elections are going to have on the commonwealth and on the agenda of [Gov.] Glenn Youngkin in the second half of his term, it will come down to a relative handful of seats,” Coleman says. “District 31 in the Senate, which is basically western Loudoun County. District 17 in Southside. Democrats are in a situation where I think they’re favored in basically 20 seats in the Senate. They need to get one more. What’s that one more going to be?”

The parties’ respective calculation of Virginia’s most competitive districts will shape the fall campaign. Another likely force will be Youngkin, whose 2021 coattails helped the GOP retake the House majority and win the lieutenant governor and attorney general contests.

For Youngkin, the 2023 election also has provided a handy excuse to sidestep questions about his 2024 presidential ambitions. Asked at a California conference whether he’d campaign for president, Youngkin responded, “No, I’m going to be working in Virginia this year.” Some outlets took that as an indication he’d not join the Republican field of presidential candidates, while others noted the grammar seemed to apply only to this year, not next. The governor has continued to blur the issue, appearing in an ad that some observers saw as foreshadowing a national campaign.

Youngkin has endorsed 50 General Assembly incumbents, 16 nonincumbent Republican nominees and 10 candidates in contested primaries. The latter inspired blowback from a candidate who wasn’t endorsed and who complained about it on a conservative talk radio show. Former NASCAR driver and Southside GOP state Senate candidate Hermie Sadler also expressed frustration with Youngkin. The governor’s political action committee allegedly tried to change the nomination method in Sadler’s district from a primary to a convention, which likely would have favored Sadler’s Youngkin-endorsed opponent.

November’s winners will be rewarded with the opportunity to set the General Assembly’s tone for the next decade or more. To some extent, that tone also will be shaped by this year’s wave of retirements.

“For 20 or 30 years, it didn’t matter who was in charge of Senate — it was a stable body,” Habeeb says. “Those days are gone. Historically, the Senate has prevented massive changes in any given cycle. Now, there’s a scenario where historical change can happen overnight.”

Unfinished business
BY MASON ADAMS

Democrats call out Youngkin on Ford plant decision

Democratic state delegates excoriated Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin on Tuesday for taking Virginia out of the running for a $3.5 billion Ford Motor Co. battery manufacturing plant that would have created at least 2,500 jobs in Southern Virginia. The governor said last week that although Virginia was a finalist for the economic development project, he called a stop to the plant because of its ties to a Chinese company, saying that he didn’t want Ford to serve as “a front for China” in Virginia.

“We all thought we were trying to achieve the same bipartisan goals of bringing good-paying jobs and economic development to Virginia, but apparently, in his absence last year, the governor missed that part of the transition briefing,” Loudoun County Del. David Reid, a Democrat, said on the House of Delegates’ floor. Reid was referring to Youngkin’s extensive 2022 domestic travel schedule, which many political onlookers saw as Youngkin testing the waters for a 2024 presidential run. “At this point, the governor needs to go to Southside, hold a town hall and explain why it is OK for him to make tens of millions of dollars off of investments in China and Chinese investments in the United States when he was in Carlyle Group, but he decided to play politics when it came to the livelihood for an entire region.”

According to a Richmond Times-Dispatch report, Ford was considering building a plant for electric vehicle batteries at Pittsylvania County’s 3,528-acre Southern Virginia Mega Site at Berry Hill, which so far has no tenants, while the state and other investors have spent more than $200 million to prepare the site for industrial use. The plant would have been run by Chinese company Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL), which builds lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Reid, who served as an intelligence officer in the Navy Reserves and worked as a defense contractor, said that “no one in the intel community has ever even remotely implied that Ford was a front company for the Chinese.”

However, Chinese influence in the U.S. has become an increasingly popular talking point among GOP political leaders, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who are both considered potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. DeSantis has said in recent days that he will ask Florida lawmakers to bar Chinese investors from buying farmland and residences, and a Texas legislator has filed a bill that would prevent residents, governments and entities of China, Iran, North Korea and Russia from buying land in Texas.

Former President Donald Trump, the only announced GOP presidential candidate, criticized Youngkin in November 2022, claiming credit for his gubernatorial win and using an anti-Asian slur, saying that Youngkin’s name — spelled by Trump as “Young Kin” — “sounds Chinese.” The governor declined to criticize Trump, saying “I do not call people names.”

Youngkin, like Abbott, also barred all state employees from using state-issued phones or Wi-Fi networks to access Chinese-owned phone apps TikTok and WeChat in a December 2022 executive order, saying in a statement that “TikTok and WeChat data are a channel to the Chinese Communist Party, and their continued presence represents a threat to national security, the intelligence community and the personal privacy of every single American.” During his State of the Commonwealth speech last week, Youngkin called on the state legislature to ban selling Virginia farmland to Chinese investors.

“It is deeply disappointing that Gov. Youngkin would turn away business investment and jobs from Ford Motor Co. due to political considerations and a new obsession with China. It’s clear that the governor has put his personal politics above jobs for Virginia communities,” Democratic state Sen. Jennifer McClellan, who is running for the late Donald McEachin’s congressional seat, said Friday.

However, as Reid noted, when Youngkin was co-CEO of Carlyle Group Inc., a Washington, D.C.-based private equity fund, he benefited financially from the company’s investments in Chinese industries, including ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company. In 2021, when he was running for governor, Youngkin had an estimated net worth of about $400 million, making him the wealthiest governor in the state’s history.

Republican delegates defended Youngkin’s decision to pull Virginia from consideration for the Ford plant. “Bringing the right jobs to Danville … is critical,” said Del. Terry Kilgore, a Republican who serves on the state Tobacco Region Revitalization Commission, which assists localities in Southern and Southwest Virginia in boosting economic development projects with funds from tobacco civil lawsuits settled decades ago. “But Bloomberg reported in December that Ford Motor Co. was planning to run this proposed electric vehicle plant through a conglomerate that coordinates closely with the Chinese Communist Party.”

The Dec. 15, 2022, Bloomberg news article notes that former U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan last year strained relations between the U.S. and China, leading to CATL’s delay in building a new facility in North America, which would have been constructed in Virginia or Michigan, according to multiple news reports. Under Ford’s agreement with CATL, the American vehicle builder would own 100% of the plant while CATL would operate the plant and own the technology to build the batteries.

Meanwhile, Virginia Beach Republican Del. Tim Anderson cautioned against the use of cobalt in electric car batteries, arguing that “child slaves” are mining cobalt used in batteries and other tech devices. “If we’re going to bring new business to Virginia, I would like to bring something to Virginia that doesn’t have slave trade supply-chain issues.”

Siddharth Kara, a Harvard visiting professor, has written a book being published later this month about horrifying conditions at cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including child labor, which has also been reported by The New Yorker and other media outlets. The mineral is used in the production of lithium-ion batteries. According to the 2021 New Yorker story, cobalt keeps the batteries from catching fire, and cobalt’s value has gone up significantly in recent years.

However, lithium iron phosphate batteries — the kind that would be produced by the Ford plant — do not use cobalt, and electric vehicle manufacturers, including Tesla, are increasingly moving toward cobalt-free batteries, according to news reports.

2022 Political Roundtable: Red wave? Maybe a puddle

On balance, Democrats came out winners in the 2022 midterm elections, having staved off a widely forecast “red wave” of Republican victories, according to panelists at Virginia Business’ annual Political Roundtable, held Nov. 9 in Richmond.

The idea of a red wave or “red tsunami” was “perhaps … a bit of a myth … largely created by the media,” noted Amanda Wintersieck, associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University. Political scientists, she said, weren’t predicting overwhelming Republican victories — despite inflation being at a 40-year high and President Joe Biden’s approval ratings remaining low.

Political prediction markets like Predictit.org, she added, indicated that control of the Senate was a toss-up, leaning toward Democrats, and that Republicans were slightly favored to take control of the House.

And in fact, by mid-November, Democrats had cemented their slight majority in the Senate, while Republicans won a slim House majority.

Panelists who took part in the 16th annual Virginia Business Political Roundtable at the Richmond Marriott included James W. “Jim” Dyke Jr., senior state government relations advisor with McGuireWoods Consulting; University of Mary Washington Professor Stephen Farnsworth; Gentry Locke Attorneys partner and Republican former state Del. Gregory Habeeb; Regent University Assistant Professor Andrew J. “A.J.” Nolte; and Wintersieck.

The panelists noted that candidates ideologically aligned with or endorsed by former President Donald Trump lost their races or underperformed, notably including Pennsylvania Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz, who lost to Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. After the election, some Republicans began publicly distancing themselves from Trump, including Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.

“Southeastern Pennsylvania, the very suburban area outside of Philadelphia, where there’s a lot of highly affluent, college-educated white voters who tend to be more socially liberal — Oz really needed those voters,” Nolte said. “He was not going to get Trump numbers out of the Trumpy areas of Pennsylvania.”

Habeeb noted that the midterms confirmed that Trump’s appeal to his base “isn’t transferable to other candidates,” and that “candidates really, really matter” in terms of appeal. Additionally, he said, “we live in a very 50-50 country. I think [2021] redistricting did have a role in lots of states at the House level, although it nets out because there’s pluses and minuses for each party.”

In any event, Habeeb said, the midterms “did not become a referendum on Biden.”

The U.S. Supreme Court’s June ruling overturning Roe v. Wade did motivate some voters, panelists said, as did feelings about Trump and the false “stolen election” narrative.

“The Democrats, looking at economic anxiety, high inflation and the relatively middling evaluation of Biden, had a problem if the conversation was about the economy,” Farnsworth said, noting that Trump and abortion were “two different narratives [for Democrats] to choose from.”

In Virginia, political watchers had their eyes on three heavily contested House races in which incumbent Democrats Elaine Luria, Abigail Spanberger and Jennifer Wexton were defending their seats in redrawn districts. Spanberger and Wexton won their races by a few points, while Luria lost in Hampton Roads to Republican state Sen. Jen Kiggans by four percentage points.

Dyke said that Luria’s redrawn district, which skewed slightly more Republican, was a significant factor. A slightly bluer district helped Spanberger — but Dyke also cited a flawed campaign by Trump-backed GOP challenger Yesli Vega, a Prince William supervisor who took controversial, far-right stances.

Speaking about midterm trends, Dyke added, “With all these election deniers, from what I’ve been able to see is [that] most of those have gone down to defeat because, hopefully, people recognize that preserving our democracy is very, very important.”

Midterm murkiness

Republicans look to extend their 2021 wins in state elections as they closely eye congressional targets in November’s midterm elections.

Democrats hold seven of the state’s 11 congressional seats, with three of those having changed hands during the last midterms in 2018. U.S. Reps. Elaine Luria of Norfolk, Abigail Spanberger of Glen Allen and Jennifer Wexton of Leesburg were elected as part of a blue wave that saw Republicans lose seats across the country during President Donald Trump’s term.

Now, it’s Democrats’ turn to brace for widespread losses as President Joe Biden’s approval rating has dropped below 40% amid skyrocketing inflation, stocks flirting with bear market territory, and recent survey results from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research showing that only two in 10 adults say the U.S. is heading in the right direction or the economy is good.

It’s still unclear how that will play out in Virginia, where polling remains sparse.

“We just don’t know,” says Amanda Wintersieck, assistant professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University. “We have very little data. There is exactly one poll from more than a month ago now, and it’s specifically focused on [Luria’s race in] House District 2.”

Luria and Spanberger appear to be the GOP’s top targets.

Luria, a retired Navy commander, defeated incumbent Scott Taylor, a former Navy SEAL, in 2018 by 51.1% to 48.8%, then again in a 2020 rematch that also included an independent candidate. Her Republican challenger for this year’s race was not yet determined by press time for this issue. Republicans were slated to choose their candidate for the seat in a June 21 primary between state Sen. Jen Kiggans, Tommy Altman, Andy Baan and Jarome Bell.

Spanberger, a former CIA operations officer, has prevailed in even closer races than Luria. The Richmond-area congressional representative defeated incumbent Dave Brat in 2018 by a 50.3% to 48.4% margin, then defeated state Del. Nick Freitas by a similar margin in 2020. The GOP candidates running in the June 21 primary to face her included state Sen. Bryce Reeves of Spotsylvania; Derrick Anderson; Gina Ciarcia; David Ross; Crystal Vanuch; and Yesli Vega.

The 10th congressional district was held by Republicans from 1980 until 2018 but trended left until then-state Sen. Jennifer Wexton defeated incumbent Barbara Comstock 56.1% to 43.7%. Wexton was reelected by a slightly larger margin in
2020. In a May convention battle between 11 candidates, Republicans nominated retired U.S. Navy Capt. Hung Cao to run against Wexton.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a political newsletter published by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, rates the 10th — as well as the 3rd, 4th, 8th and 11th districts — as “Safe Democratic.” The 1st, 5th, 6th and 9th districts are rated as “Safe Republican.” In early June, Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated Spanberger’s 7th District as “Leans Democratic,” indicating a more competitive race, and Luria’s 2nd District race as a “Toss-up.”

The midterms take place across 11 new congressional districts drawn by the Virginia Supreme Court after a bipartisan commission failed to come to any agreement on state and congressional redistricting. The court appointed two special masters who proposed new maps, which were opened to public comments and then tweaked.

The court also approved new maps drawn by the specialists for the 40 districts of the Virginia Senate and the 100 districts for the House of Delegates.

Democratic lawyer Paul Goldman argued the 2021 House of Delegates elections had taken place in outdated districts and sued the state to force new elections this year, instead of waiting until 2023. However, in June, a panel of three federal judges dismissed Goldman’s lawsuit, ruling that he lacked standing to bring the legal challenge. State elections will take place as scheduled in 2023.

VCU’s Wintersieck says many Republicans expect to retake the U.S. House of Representatives during this year’s midterms, and perhaps the U.S. Senate too. That’s largely because they’re currently locked out of power, which lends greater urgency among their base while swing voters tend to focus their frustrations on whoever’s in the White House.

“Negativity bias is really taking hold,” Wintersieck says. “People in the ‘out’ group are much more incentivized to vote. In this regard, we should expect turnout more from Republicans than Democrats. Dems [are] not as driven by burning desire, and we’re seeing disillusionment among youth voters or progressive voters, which could result in lower turnout.”

Democrats could be fired up, however, by a leaked draft opinion that came out in May suggesting that the U.S. Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade — the landmark 1973 ruling that established a woman’s right to have an abortion without excessive government restrictions. That could rally Democrats who need something to vote against, instead of something to vote for.

“It’s a small boost of negativity for Democrats who do not want to see women’s health care in the form of abortion abolished,” Wintersieck says. “It makes them more competitive, but if you look through history, the reigning political party typically loses at least some seats in elections. So, it may mitigate some losses, but I don’t expect it to completely alleviate them.”

Political scientist Stephen Farnsworth at the University of Mary Washington agrees but warns that a Roe reversal still could trigger backlash.

“Normally, midterms are very painful for the president’s party,” Farnsworth says. “On average, the president’s party can expect to lose 20 seats in the House and three seats in the Senate. There are sometimes exceptions. If the abortion decision reverses Roe v. Wade, as seems likely, this may be another one of those exceptional elections where the president’s party doesn’t suffer as much as it might otherwise.”

Election Day is Nov. 8.

Balancing act

The Virginia General Assembly returned to a familiar configuration in 2022, legislating with a Republican-majority House of Delegates and Democratic-controlled Virginia Senate for the seventh time since 2000.

But while the partisan split was old hat, much else about the session was new, taking place two years into the global COVID-19 pandemic and occurring after two years of Democratic control that brought progressive priorities to the Old Dominion.

The session also featured a new player: first-year Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican businessman who had never served in elected office until his January inauguration.

From a business perspective, the partisan split’s not necessarily a bad thing, politicos say.

“As many lobbyists tell me, divided government tends to be a better construct for them as they try to help their associations and clients,” says Chris Saxman, a former Republican delegate and executive director of Virginia FREE. “There’s more competition from the parties, [and] competition is good. It draws out what are important issues, policies and sometimes demeanor when it comes to being successful.”

With CNBC naming Virginia its top state for business for the past two years, neither party was incentivized to make major changes that could negatively affect that unprecedented ranking.

Yet the legislative session’s relatively staid results belie the partisan acrimony that simmered in Richmond. Youngkin and House Republicans tried to reverse course after two years of Democratic control, but were stopped by Senate Democrats. At times, the partisan divide took a personal turn, as the parties clashed over the budget and confirmations at the Capitol, and in blunter terms on social media.

“We approached the session with an understanding that Democrats still controlled the Senate,” says House Speaker Todd Gilbert, a Republican from Shenandoah County. “We knew amending or reversing policies passed under complete Democratic control wouldn’t be likely.”

After the session, “I think the bottom line is, we’re roughly in the same place,” says Sen. John Bell, a Democrat from Loudoun County. “I think people from both sides want to keep that label as being business friendly. If we allow the extremes of either party to go through, we wouldn’t be. And that would be a major problem.”

While Virginia is familiar with a divided legislature, the gulf between parties appears deeper than at any time in modern history. Partisan politics have become even more polarized, while Donald Trump’s presidency and ongoing influence in the GOP have disrupted party alignments and priorities in ways still playing out now.

Youngkin swept into office last year on a wave of momentum from suburban voters motivated by battles over public school policies and curricula, as well as weariness with pandemic-driven mask mandates and other regulations. The former Carlyle Group co-CEO was sworn in on Jan. 15 and immediately signed 11 executive actions, including allowing parents to decide whether their children should wear masks in schools, attempting to withdraw the state from a regional carbon trading market and declaring Virginia “open for business.”

Six days later, Youngkin announced his package of legislative and budget priorities, including measures to eliminate the grocery tax and to create 20 charter schools across the state. On Feb. 7, his press office issued a news release, “Governor Youngkin Delivers on Promises, Day One Game Plan Bill Passes House of Delegates.”

That momentum proved to be a mirage, though, as the Virginia Senate soon became an insurmountable hurdle for much of Youngkin’s agenda.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin signed a bill banning mask mandates in public schools in Virginia during a Feb. 16 signing ceremony on the steps of the State Capitol. Photo by AP Images/Steve Helber

Some victories, some defeats

That’s not to say the governor didn’t have wins. The Senate backed a proposal by Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, R-Henrico, to keep schools open five days a week for in-person instruction and to ensure a parental opt-out from school mask mandates.

“I promised that … Virginia would move forward with an agenda that empowers parents on the upbringing, education and care of their own children,” Youngkin said after the vote. “I am proud to continue to deliver on that promise.”

And, in budget negotiations, Youngkin’s platform to repeal grocery taxes was partially successful, with the 1.5% state portion eliminated but retaining the 1% tax for localities. Also, $100 million will go toward the College Partnership Laboratory Schools Fund to establish K-12 “lab schools,” public, nonsectarian institutions housed in colleges and universities.

But the Senate blocked many Republican initiatives, including a gas tax holiday, reversing an increase in the minimum wage and banning teaching of “inherently divisive concepts.” Meanwhile, the GOP took aim at “critical race theory,” an academic lens for examining how race is built into societal institutions that superintendents deny is taught in public schools, but typically used by partisans to encompass classroom instruction on racial issues and history.

The Democratic-controlled Senate also rejected former Trump administration Environmental Protection Agency head Andrew Wheeler to serve in Youngkin’s Cabinet as secretary of natural and historic resources, although Wheeler is serving as an adviser to the governor now. That set off an escalating feud as the Republican-led House then blocked 11 of outgoing Gov. Ralph Northam’s appointees to different boards and commissions, and the Senate then rejected all but one of Youngkin’s nominees to the parole board.

Amid the tension, Senate President Pro Tempore Louise Lucas, an eight-term Democratic senator from Portsmouth, became the face of Youngkin’s opposition on social media as she accrued more than 64,000 followers for her biting commentary on Twitter. In one memorable moment, she tweeted about a text message Youngkin sent her complimenting her for a speech that was instead made by another Black female senator, Mamie Locke, D-Hampton. The governor apologized, and Lucas and Locke later wore replicas of Youngkin’s signature red vest on the Senate floor.

All humor aside, “I want to give voice to what’s happening to us as voters,” Lucas says. “A lot of people got hoodwinked by him [Youngkin]. They didn’t know he had all these Trumpian policies.”

Youngkin made his own move to communicate more directly to voters, purchasing an ad during March Madness basketball games to pressure Democratic lawmakers to approve his budget priorities. Sen. Adam Ebbin, D-Alexandria, dismissed it as “a gimmick.” Youngkin later vetoed nine of Ebbin’s 10 bills that passed the legislature, apparently in retaliation for Ebbin’s role in blocking his nominees.

The governor won some legislative victories, including the passage of a bill to let parents opt their children out of reading assigned material with sexual content. But more often his accomplishments came from nonpartisan economic development announcements such as the recent decisions by Raytheon Technologies Corp. and The Boeing Co., the world’s second- and third-largest defense contractors, to relocate their global headquarters to Arlington.

“I’m pleased with what we got done in the House, but I do wish we had been able to get more through the Senate,” Gilbert says. “We had lots of good bills come out of the House just to die in Senate committees.”

Holding firm

Democrats view the session differently, noting that many of their signature accomplishments from the last two sessions remain intact.

“The firewall held,” Bell says. “One thing that was wise was that many of the partisan pieces of legislation from the House didn’t make it out of the House, and partisan legislation from the Senate didn’t make it out of the Senate. It’s a good thing that far reaches from right or left aren’t going to pass.”

Take the Virginia Clean Economy Act, a 2020 law that commits to decarbonize the state’s electric grid by 2050, ending the use of coal to generate power and incentivizing more solar and wind. Every House Republican voted in favor of a bill to roll back the law, but the repeal attempt was swiftly killed in a Senate subcommittee.

“A wise thing I’ve learned, often stated by people of both parties, is that when new legislation is passed, give it a couple of years until you make any changes,” Bell says. “Most of this legislation, the ink is pretty wet.”

The General Assembly, however, “nibbled around the edges” on energy policy, says House Majority Leader Del. Terry Kilgore of Scott County. That included passage of a bill to remove power from citizen air and water control boards, after the former blocked permitting for a compressor station on a Mountain Valley Pipeline extension.

Youngkin also vowed to withdraw Virginia from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, an 11-state carbon market to cap and reduce greenhouse emissions in the power sector. He wasn’t able to do so immediately by executive order because Virginia’s membership was enacted by the seven-member citizen state air pollution control board. However, he has appointed two new members — former electric cooperative executives — to the board, which can then fulfill his edict.

The General Assembly failed to pass a two-year budget until June, when lawmakers finally approved a compromise that increased the standard tax deduction for individuals and joint filers without doubling it, as Republicans had called for. The budget also included $1.25 billion for school construction and modernization, and $159 million for the Virginia Economic Development Partnership to develop more “megasites” of the type that have been targeted by auto manufacturers who’ve recently announced new factories in Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina and Tennessee — but not Virginia.

Democrats also used the extended session to elect a new House minority leader, Del. Don Scott Jr. of Portsmouth, after ousting Del. Eileen Filler-Corn in April. Filler-Corn served as Virginia’s first female and Jewish speaker when Democrats held the chamber in 2020 and 2021.

Virginia lawmakers frequently have needed extra time to resolve budget impasses beyond the end of the regular session, a problem for businesses as well as localities waiting to set their own budgets.

“It’s become something of a tradition that needs to be broken, because it sends a signal to everyone in Virginia that deadlines don’t matter, when in fact they do,” Saxman says. “The business community grows increasingly uncomfortable with both parties when they can’t resolve what are frankly in the business world easily resolvable issues.”

Football fumbles

As of early June, there was still no resolution on a bill to award a state subsidy to attract the NFL’s Washington Commanders to build a stadium in Virginia. Early in the session, subsidy estimates ran as high as $1 billion, but through the spring fell to $350 million as headlines about an allegedly hostile work culture continued to plague owner Daniel Snyder. Key Democrats and Republicans supported the proposal, but it ultimately failed to come up for a vote — largely from concern about going into business with a troubled organization.

The Ashburn-based football team and its ownership have been under investigation for allegations of sexual harassment and workplace misconduct, and Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares announced in April that his office was investigating allegations the franchise engaged in financial improprieties.

“There are many, many studies that show that jurisdictions that are very generous to football teams do not recoup an effective return on their investment,” says Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington. “This seems doubly true in the case of a legally-challenged and performance-challenged football franchise.”

In late May, the Commanders acquired the right to purchase 200 acres in Prince William County that drove speculation about its plans. The team also was considering other sites in Prince William County and Loudoun County, as well as its current site in Landover, Maryland.

The state legislature also got involved in what had been a municipal matter: Richmond’s casino referendum. After city voters rejected the proposed $565 million casino developed by media company Urban One Inc. in November 2021, Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, several City Council members and Urban One quickly regrouped and launched a plan for a second referendum vote in November, approved in March by council and a circuit judge.

Meanwhile, state Sen. Joe Morrissey, a Democrat who represents parts of Richmond and Petersburg, had already started efforts to move the project to Petersburg. His bill to get a referendum on Petersburg’s ballot this year failed, but he prevented Richmond from placing a second referendum on ballots until November 2023 via a budget amendment.

As of early June, Richmond and Urban One officials say they are examining their legal options.

Also in the air is regulating the retail market for marijuana, which Democrats legalized in 2021 without establishing a commercial structure. The Senate passed a bill to complete that work in 2022, but the House rejected it. However, retail sales of synthetic THC products like Delta-8 — which some Democrats and Republicans attempted to outlaw — were approved, and lawmakers also approved misdemeanor penalties for people caught in public with more than four ounces of marijuana.

“Democrats let the genie of legalization out of the bottle, and I don’t think there’s any going back from that,” says Gilbert, a former prosecutor. “But I’m concerned about the idea of having marijuana stores popping up in Virginia without regard to what’s being offered to consumers. We have a hard enough time keeping kids away from alcohol and tobacco, and some of these edible products that have come to market in Virginia look very enticing for kids.”

Lucas, who maintains an ownership stake in The Cannabis Outlet, a cannabis products store with branches in Norfolk and Portsmouth, says the legislature must deliver on its promise of a commercial cannabis market that includes social equity provisions for communities adversely affected by decades of marijuana criminalization.

“Polls show the majority of Virginians want to see marijuana legalized,” Lucas says. “African American and brown people have suffered the hardships of prohibition. How dare we have an industry this large leave out the folks who have suffered the most? We need to legalize recreational sales — I’m hoping by 2023, not 2024. Why are we penalizing people for things that would make them feel better and healthier?”

Saxman says it’s best that lawmakers take their time with a complex issue that affects not just retailers but other stakeholders, including insurers and the criminal justice system.

Others agree that complicated bills take time to find consensus — especially in a divided General Assembly.

“That shouldn’t surprise anyone,” Farnsworth says. “It’s a radical departure from the past. These are complicated issues and big changes. These are things that should take time.”

A dramatic shift

Four years ago, no one would have guessed Gov. Ralph Northam would lead the most progressive Virginia administration in modern memory.

A native of Onancock on Virginia’s Eastern Shore, as well as a pediatric neurologist and Army veteran, Virginia’s 73rd governor was eyed by some Democrats with suspicion after acknowledging he’d voted twice for President George W. Bush and had been courted by Republicans to switch parties while serving in the Virginia Senate.

As Northam prepares to hand over the Executive Mansion’s keys to Republican Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin on Jan. 15, he leaves behind a legacy of governing amid a deadly global pandemic and perhaps the most racially tumultuous period in decades.

And his tenure as governor almost ended barely a year into his term.

The date everything changed was Feb. 1, 2019. In the middle of the General Assembly session, a photo from Northam’s 1984 Eastern Virginia Medical School yearbook pages depicting a person in blackface and a second person wearing a Ku Klux Klan robe first appeared on a right-wing website. Northam quickly apologized in a video statement, acknowledging he was in the photo, although he did not specify which person was him.

State and national news media crowded into the marble halls of the Virginia State Capitol, waiting for the governor to resign in disgrace. State lawmakers issued statements condemning the photo. Former Democratic Govs. Terry McAuliffe, Tim Kaine and Mark Warner all called for Northam’s resignation. Rumors flew among state government workers and politicos that the governor would be stepping down imminently.

The day after his first statement, however, Northam held a press conference, this time denying he was in the yearbook photo but acknowledging a separate occasion during which he wore blackface dressed as Michael Jackson for a party. First lady Pamela Northam prevented the governor from demonstrating his moonwalking skills for the assembled media.

Amid the political pressure, it didn’t appear there was any path forward for Northam to remain in office — but stay he did, due to a confluence of events.

“I am pleased that Virginia stuck with me,” Northam says.

But it wasn’t as simple as that. Without a separate set of circumstances, Northam would likely have been a goner.

Pressure continued to mount for Northam to resign, which would have seen Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax ascend to governor. However, in the days that followed, two women made sexual assault accusations against Fairfax, charges he denies. As it looked like Fairfax too might resign, the chaos surrounding Virginia’s top Democrats continued. Attorney General Mark Herring admitted to wearing blackface at a University of Virginia Halloween party in the 1980s.

That bought Northam extra time.

He turned to Black clergy members and other community members, meeting with them in private to listen and learn over the next couple of months.

“I reached out, and they were receptive,” Northam says. “They supported me, and I think the rest is history.”

Depending on one’s political point of view, Northam either went on to earn Virginia a reputation as the most liberal state in the South through a sincere effort to make amends, or he made a dramatic, two-year effort to rescue his political career and authored his own party’s losses in November 2021.

Cheryl Ivey Green, the executive minister of the First Baptist Church of South Richmond, recalls meeting with Northam during that early period as part of a clergy group. Northam was “refreshingly honest about what happened,” she recalls. “What he made was a commitment to make it right and do right.”

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, left, gestures as his wife, Pam, listens during a press conference in the Governors Mansion at the Capitol in Richmond, Va., Saturday, Feb. 2, 2019. At the time, Northam was under fire for a racist photo that appeared in his college yearbook. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

Green is the chair of the Virginia African American Advisory Board, which Northam created in March 2019 to advise him on areas of interest to Black Virginians, particularly education, health care, public safety, criminal justice and issues impacting small, Black-owned businesses. Green says she doesn’t know if the governor would have focused as much attention on Black concerns if not for the scandal — possibly because as a white man, he had not encountered racism on a personal level.

“When God opens a window because of an issue called ‘blackface’ or whatever, it’s used to open doors for things people like me have been fighting for for years,” Green says. “I’m just grateful he used that, but it took great courage to say, ‘I want to do right.’”

In May 2019, Northam created the nation’s first state cabinet-level post to focus on diversity, equity and inclusion within state government, tapping Janice Underwood in September 2019 as the state’s inaugural chief diversity officer, a position now preserved in Virginia code.

Tragedy, and a shift

Northam did not reemerge publicly in a prominent way until Memorial Day weekend 2019, when a gunman shot 16 people, killing 12, at the Virginia Beach municipal building. Police shot and killed DeWayne Craddock in a prolonged gunfight 35 minutes after the first shots were fired.

That was probably “the toughest day of my four years,” recounts the governor. “I got in the car and drove very quickly to Virginia Beach. On my way there, the numbers of the casualties continued to rise, as well as those that were injured.”

In assuming the familiar role of comforter-in-chief, Northam was able to place his blackface scandal on the back burner. He quickly called the Republican-controlled House of Delegates and the Democratic-controlled state Senate back to Richmond for a special session to enact gun control legislation.

“The Republicans took less than 90 minutes and then adjourned,” Northam says matter-of-factly. “Nothing was done.”

In November 2019, in what Northam attributes to voters saying, “enough is enough,” Democrats won control of the state House for the first time in nearly three decades — although the victory also was likely a reaction to the deeply scorned Trump White House and demographic shifts toward younger, more liberal and racially diverse populations in Northern Virginia.

Led by a previously moderate governor who was indebted to Black leaders who had supported him following the scandal, Democrats in the General Assembly had the power to pass a slate of the most progressive legislation ever seen in Virginia.

Within two years, personal possession of marijuana was legalized, the death penalty was banned, the state created its own voting rights act, minimum hourly wages rose, and abortion restrictions were rolled back. Northam also declared he would remove the state-owned monument to Gen. Robert E. Lee in Richmond, calling it a relic of the Jim Crow era and a symbol of white supremacy. He also launched a state investigation into racist incidents at his alma mater, Virginia Military Institute, following investigative news reports in 2020.

Republican Del. Todd Gilbert, who will become speaker of the House this month after two years of Democratic control, says Northam and state Democrats overreached with their agenda, contributing to Republicans’ dramatic statewide sweep in the November 2021 elections.

A “very cordial” relationship between Republicans and Democrats at the start of Northam’s term “abruptly ended on that day when the revelations of the blackface [photo] occurred, and I don’t know that I’ve spoken to [Northam] since,” Gilbert says.

“There were things that I would never [have] thought that a more middle-of-the-road Gov. Northam would have signed into law, that he was more than willing to sign into law to try and rehabilitate his image,” Gilbert adds. “Pretty much anything that the progressive left was feeding to him, he was putting pen to paper and making it the law of Virginia.”

Northam, predictably, takes a different view, declining to analyze the reasons behind his party’s losses.

“It’s part of democracy,” he says. “More people voted for Glenn Youngkin against Terry McAuliffe, and so he’s the governor-elect. I’ve had a couple of really productive meetings with Gov.-elect Youngkin. I’m confident that he will lead Virginia well.”

Shutdown in Virginia

It’s possible that Northam and state Democrats would have made even more progressive strides if not for the COVID-19 pandemic and its resulting economic crisis. In March 2020, when Virginia recorded its first coronavirus cases, Northam took on a new role as public health leader.

In daily news conferences, Northam reported the commonwealth’s latest case numbers and death statistics and issued a series of executive orders aimed at limiting the spread of the virus. Social distancing and mask mandates encountered some pushback, typically from Republicans following the lead of President Donald Trump, who had declared the country would be back to normal by Easter 2020. By contrast, Northam was cautious, ordering broad shutdowns of schools and “nonessential” businesses through early June.

In September 2020, Northam and first lady Pam Northam contracted COVID-19. The governor says his sense of smell has returned a “little bit, but it’s not normal,” and his sense of taste is still dulled. “The bottom line … is that I’m still alive, thankfully. It could have been a lot worse.”

Although vaccines received federal approval in fall 2020, and vaccination of frontline medical workers started in December 2020, Virginia and other states hit a severe vaccine bottleneck in January 2021. Northam had just declared that doses would be made available to everyone age 65 or older, relying on a promised federal stockpile of vaccine doses that did not materialize. The governor unexpectedly found Virginia ranked last in the nation in vaccine administration efficiency.

“We were really supply-constrained,” recalls Dr. Danny Avula, the state’s vaccine coordinator.

In early January 2021, Northam “called us into the situation room” to discuss the problem, Avula recalls. The Virginia Department of Health “was not going to solve this on its own but needed the breadth of government.” Avula remembers the governor saying that “this had to be an all-hands-on-deck approach.”

By March 2021, the supply problem eased, only to be replaced with a growing unwillingness of some people to get vaccinated.

If there was one thing that rankled the governor publicly, it was outright opposition — primarily on the part of Republicans — to wearing masks and getting vaccinated. Northam saw it as a deadly politicization of a health crisis that has resulted in the deaths of more than 800,000 Americans in less than two years.

The usually mild-mannered Northam would sometimes call people who flouted COVID mitigation measures “selfish” during news conferences, saying they were putting health care workers and the general public at risk.

Even in November 2021, when Virginia was ranked No. 10 out of the 50 states for percentage of its population who were fully vaccinated against the coronavirus, Northam was still frustrated that 30 to 35 Virginians were dying per day, a “totally avoidable” toll, he says.

“Virginia has done well, but we probably could have had this pandemic in the rearview mirror if everybody would be part of the solution, if everyone would look at this like a biological war, which is really what it is.”

Economic wins

Even amid the pandemic, the blackface controversy and the Democrats’ progressive agenda, one recent feature of Virginia politics remained steady through Northam’s term: economic development wins.

In November 2018, Amazon.com Inc. announced it would be locating its $2.5 billion-plus East Coast HQ2 headquarters in Arlington, bringing approximately 25,000 jobs. CNBC cited the deal in 2019 while anointing Virginia as its Top State for Business, an achievement Virginia repeated in 2021 after a one-year postponement in the rankings due to the pandemic. A plethora of big deals from Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Siemens Gamesa and other major corporations followed.

Stephen Moret, who was president and CEO of the Virginia Economic Development Partnership from January 2017 through December 2021, says Northam was always willing to meet with business executives to seal economic development deals, and the governor’s cabinet members were particularly accessible.

Northam also invested heavily in workforce training, including the state’s Tech Talent Investment Program to produce more than 31,000 computer engineering and science graduates over 20 years, and VEDP’s Virginia Talent Accelerator Program, a collaboration with the Virginia Community College System to provide free job training and assistance for companies locating or expanding in the commonwealth.

“I always found [Northam] to be smart and thoughtful,” Moret says, adding that, unlike some political leaders, Northam was willing to share credit for successes. “Governors love to make the announcements, but a lot of people contribute to these projects. I see his legacy as a combination of commitment to rural Virginia — particularly broadband access — and his support for major advances in talent development.”

Northam, who plans to return to his medical practice in Norfolk after his term ends, takes pride that his administration was “probably, in the history of Virginia, the most progressive and also the most successful. Our economy is doing better than it has ever done. It’s proof that you can have both. I think that would be the legacy that I’ll leave behind.”

The great divide

Virginia’s business community faces a strangely familiar and yet uncertain state government headed into the 2022 General Assembly session, which begins Jan. 12.

Republicans rolled to victories across the board in the November 2021 election as Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin led a GOP sweep of all three statewide offices, and Republicans also won a narrow 52-48 majority in the House of Delegates. That leaves Democrats with just a 21-19 majority in the Virginia Senate — and newly elected Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears holds the ability to break any potential tie votes.

A divided state government is nothing new for Virginia. Since 2000, Republicans held unilateral control of state government only twice, from 2000 to 2002 and from 2012 to 2014. Democrats won unilateral control in 2019, ushering in sweeping policy changes over the past two years that transformed the regulatory atmosphere around everything from energy generation and legal marijuana to gambling and the balance between labor and business owners.

Youngkin, Gilbert and other Republicans already have identified laws passed over the last two years they’ll seek to roll back. That includes a 2020 act to transition Virginia entirely to clean energy by 2050; Youngkin has said he’ll use executive action to withdraw the state from a regional carbon market. Walking back actions by the 2020-21 Democratic majority will require flipping a senator, however.

Speculation on likely Democratic swing votes has centered largely around state
Sen. Joe Morrissey, D-Richmond, and his push to bring a casino to economically challenged Petersburg in light of Richmond passing up the opportunity in a failed November 2021 referendum. Due to the chamber’s ideological diversity, however, the GOP will likely target multiple Democrats for support depending on the issue.

Youngkin arrives as a largely unknown quantity. He has held no prior elected office, and while he’s discussed numerous issues with ramifications for business, he has offered few policy specifics. Political observers have gleaned clues from his early appointments to Cabinet and agency positions. By contrast, however, his governing partners in the House of Delegates have well-established records. Aside from the last two years, Republicans have controlled the House since 2000. The top two leaders there, Speaker Todd Gilbert of Woodstock and Majority Leader Terry Kilgore of Gate City, respectively have 16 and 28 years of legislative experience.

“We still have the problem of a Democrat-controlled Senate, and are there enough folks … willing to work with us on issues like taxation and regulation and workforce and things that are all going to contribute to keeping our business climate competitive and positive?” Gilbert says. “Much of this comes down to how many folks in the state Senate are willing to work with us to achieve these goals.”

Adds Kilgore: “We’re going to be playing a lot of defense as usual with Senate bills we do not support, but we’re also going to be helping Gov.-elect Youngkin with his agenda. We also want to roll some of the legislation back that has been passed over the past couple of years. I’m not saying we’ll have the votes for all those, but hopefully we can come together with reasonable minds in the Senate and work toward some positive outcomes.”

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats say they’re focusing on issues that directly affect families.

“In the upcoming 2022 legislative session, Virginia Senate Democrats are focusing on one thing: What happens at Virginians’ kitchen tables?” says Jacqueline Hixson Woodbridge, communications director for the Virginia Senate Democratic Caucus. “The heart of our homes is the center of so much of our daily lives: paying bills, completing homework, taking care of our health and so much more. Every day,
Virginians have been facing difficult realities throughout the COVID pandemic — which has further exposed many existing problems families face and exacerbated others. Senate Democrats will continue to build on the economic growth, social equity and fairness achieved in the last several years to make sure everyone in the commonwealth has the best opportunity at success possible.”

Some Democratic groups already are fundraising off their constituents’ fears that Republicans will push through a Texas-style abortion law. In an email, Whole Woman’s Health Alliance referenced oral arguments before the Supreme Court about the Texas law, warning that the Virginia GOP’s November wins make the commonwealth “a target for similar attacks that could overturn years of progress made to expand abortion rights and access.”

In remarks made to reporters after the election, Gilbert deemphasized abortion.

“You didn’t hear our caucus running on those things,” Gilbert says, referring to abortion and voting rights. “We’re focused on things we think were important. We realize we’re in a divided government right now and a lot of the issues people want to talk about, especially in the media, are important to selling papers and selling ad space, but you’re not hearing that from us.”

Instead, Gilbert says, “we’re working in earnest to make sure that we have a robust agenda to make our schools better, to make our streets safer, to make life more affordable for Virginians. That’s what we ran on.”

Subdued Assembly?

Those comments seem to suggest the state GOP is following the tenor of Youngkin’s campaign, says Larry Sabato, founder and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

“I can already tell from the comments that Todd Gilbert and others have made that [Republicans] clearly want to keep a lid on the crazier ideas,” Sabato says. “Youngkin got elected by corralling the crazy. My sense is they’ll adopt the most palatable agenda possible.”

Ongoing redistricting issues and Virginia’s constitutional limit on governors to a single consecutive term mean Youngkin may have only a limited time frame to make an imprint on state government, says Mark Rozell, political scientist and dean of policy and government at George Mason University.

Some analysts speculate that the redistricting process, which is in the hands of the Supreme Court of Virginia, could trigger new House of Delegates elections this November. A federal three-judge panel will decide whether delegates must run in 2022 based on the redrawn districts. And if that impacts the balance of power in the General Assembly, it could result in Youngkin facing a Democratic majority legislature after only a year in office.

“Democrats are not going to want to give him any major legislative victories early on, and they will try to do all that they can to hold their caucus together,” Rozell says. “Given the reality of divided government and possibly an even more divided government after next year, he needs to start working in a bipartisan fashion from the beginning.”

That could include championing politically popular measures such as eliminating the sales tax on groceries or suspending the state excise tax on gasoline sales, Rozell says.

“The key is that he begins his administration with some significant legislative victories that enable him to build over time,” Rozell says.

Lobbyists also foresee a largely static General Assembly 2022 session after the whirlwind, marathon sessions of the last two years.

“Most folks I talk to have this cautious optimism that there won’t be a whole lot of stuff done this year,” says Greg Habeeb, president of Richmond-based lobbying and marketing firm Gentry Locke Consulting, and a former Republican delegate. “Nobody thinks you can do anything except at the margins.”

However, former Virginia Attorney General Jerry Kilgore, a member at the Cozen O’Connor law firm, foresees potential for bipartisan support of legislation to improve Virginia’s business climate.

“Any time you’re talking about making Virginia more friendly for business, or you have a business that wants to come here and needs legislation passed for a variety of reasons, the Senate is likely to come along,” says Kilgore, twin brother of Del. Terry Kilgore, the new House majority leader. “The Senate has overall been more business-friendly even under Democrats than the House has been under Democrats.”

The day after the November 2021 gubernatorial election, panelists at Virginia Business’ 15th annual political roundtable event expressed similar views.

“To me, if you really start thinking about the message aspects of this [gubernatorial] campaign, education and workforce was an important part of [Youngkin’s] campaign,” observed Barry DuVal, president and CEO of the Virginia Chamber of Commerce. “I think we should see an agenda from [Youngkin] that focuses on workforce and education at a high level. I also think you’re going to see some initiatives around tax reform.”

“How do we grow our economy?” asked James W. “Jim” Dyke Jr., senior state government relations adviser with McGuireWoods Consulting. “How do we make sure that everyone in Virginia has the opportunity to get a quality education, whether it’s a four-year education or two-year or [a] certification? … Once you are elected, you have a responsibility to represent every Virginian and do what’s in the best interest of the commonwealth of Virginia to move us forward.”

Nevertheless, lawmakers in the newly divided General Assembly must also take action to follow up on legislation passed in 2021, noted Amanda Wintersieck, assistant professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University.

“Marijuana legislation needs to be re-passed in order to take effect,” Wintersieck explained during the political roundtable. “The negotiations on licensing and possession haven’t happened yet. … At the same time, there was some pushback against the high-speed rail expansion to D.C. among the Republican coalition. We could see a reversal of what we thought were fairly set and done legislative pieces during this last session.”

No lockdowns

One topic Youngkin likely will address soon in his administration will be the coronavirus-related restrictions implemented by his predecessor, Gov. Ralph Northam. “We will not have shutdowns, we will not have lockdowns — we will be open,” Youngkin said during his Nov. 15, 2021, speech at the Virginia Tourism Summit.

During the campaign, Youngkin said he would end school mask mandates, avoid adding the COVID-19 vaccine to the list of required vaccines for K-12 students and would roll back vaccine mandates for state employees.

Terry Kilgore says he expects GOP-led legislation around vaccine mandates and pandemic shutdowns. “I think you’ll see some bills on keeping us from shutting down again and bills that don’t allow you to fire someone because they haven’t had a vaccine,” Kilgore says. “If the vaccine mandate goes through in Southwest Virginia, our hospital system is going to be decimated, our [manufacturing] plants will be decimated.”

Southwest Virginia’s coalfields already have been disrupted by market and regulatory shifts. The Democrat-led General Assembly accelerated those shifts with the Virginia Clean Economy Act of 2020, which aims to phase out coal to generate electrical power by 2045, as well as incentivizing vast swaths of solar and wind power. The legislation received bipartisan support, so it’s unlikely to be rolled back outright.

But Republicans see room for movement around the edges, particularly when it comes to consumer costs.

“Everyone says, ‘Hey, we want clean energy,’ and they say that up until they get their [electric] bill,” Kilgore says.

Habeeb anticipates more conversation about ratepayer impacts and whether to give the State Corporation Commission more oversight. But Rozell warns that Republicans should be careful not to tamper too much.

“Going after clean energy initiatives and trying to repeal some of the actions of the Democratic-led previous administration will put [Youngkin] in the crosshairs of a number of big partisan battles,” Rozell says.

Joint efforts

Republicans have little choice but to address open questions about marijuana. Democrats legalized adult possession and cultivation of recreational marijuana in 2021 but left a gaping policy void around the development of taxation and a commercial marijuana market. Incoming House Speaker Gilbert has referred to the issue as a “live grenade rolling around.”

Adds Gilbert: “The Democrat-led General Assembly legalized marijuana possession and even personal growing of marijuana, and they did absolutely nothing to lock in any regulatory environments, tax structure, oversight, you name it.”

In an interview with Virginia Business (see Q&A, Page 24), Youngkin says he wouldn’t attempt to roll back legalization of personal possession of marijuana, but he feels that the effort to create a legal retail market for marijuana needs further work.

Echoing Youngkin’s sentiments, House Majority Leader Kilgore says, “Do I think we have the votes to turn it back and make it illegal? No. But we do need to fix it if there’s going to be a retail market. We’ve got to make sure that retail market works, and it doesn’t set up a black market where the commonwealth is missing the taxes on it.”

Gentry Locke Consulting has worked with companies in the cannabis space, and Habeeb thinks a GOP-led repeal of marijuana legislation is very unlikely.

“No one in the General Assembly wants to unwind that stuff,” Habeeb says, but “all of the regulatory, all the businesses, all the licensure, all the tax revenue is totally [incomplete]. Probably a lot of Republicans don’t like legalization in the first place. The only thing worse is legalization with a black market. Many don’t want to deal with it, but they have to do something.”

The issue with the largest short-term implications for the General Assembly is one over which it may have little control: redistricting.

In 2020, Virginia voters approved a constitutional amendment to take redistricting from lawmakers and turn it over to a bipartisan commission. The commission gridlocked on plans, however, sending the question of congressional districts and state House and Senate districts to the Virginia Supreme Court. In late October, a federal judge responding to a lawsuit filed by former Democratic Party Chairman Paul Goldman appointed a three-judge panel to determine whether delegate seats will be up for election again in November, under newly drawn districts.

Jerry Kilgore says the open questions about redistricting and its potential impact on the Assembly’s balance of power will affect the session’s tone.

“The business community needs stability and probably doesn’t want to see the General Assembly have to run again in ’22,” Kilgore says. “We saw how much money [state candidates] spent this year. They’d be spending all that money in ’22 and in ’23 and have no stability in leadership. People would be constantly questioning whether the Democrats are going to take the majority back.”

Virginia Business Deputy Editor Kate Andrews contributed to this story.

In memoriam: Va. Gov. Linwood Holton

The iconic fall 1970 photo of Virginia Gov. Linwood Holton escorting his daughter Tayloe to majority-Black John F. Kennedy High School is the enduring image of the Republican governor’s term.

“He was fiercely independent,” says A.E. Dick Howard, the University of Virginia law professor who led the 1970 campaign to ratify a new state Constitution at Holton’s request. “He was never anybody else’s man. No one ever commanded Linwood Holton.”

A native of Big Stone Gap, Holton died at age 98 on Oct. 28, having served as the 61st governor of Virginia and the state’s first Republican governor since 1869. He ran for governor in 1965 and 1969 after having served in the U.S. Navy during World War II, graduating from Harvard Law School and working as an attorney in Roanoke. Married for 68 years to Virginia “Jinks” Rogers Holton, who survives him, Holton is also survived by his four children — Woody, Dwight and Tayloe Holton and former Virginia Secretary of Education Anne Holton, the wife of U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine — as well as 10 grandchildren.

Holton took power just as the segregationist Democratic Byrd Machine was beginning to lose its hold on Virginia politics after more than 40 years. In 1965, Holton was defeated by anti-desegregationist Democrat Mills E. Godwin Jr., but four years later, facing Democrat William Battle and three other candidates, Holton secured 52.5% of the vote, taking office in 1970.

Holton was considered a moderate Republican, but also, says Howard, “he was already to the left of the leadership of his own party,” represented nationally by President Richard M. Nixon. “He wasn’t able to command control of the Republican Party.”

Despite hailing from a remote corner of the state, Holton did not have much competition for the Republican nomination, because the party had a hold only on the the state’s Southwest region, which largely opposed the Byrd Organization. As governor, Holton voluntarily placed his children in desegregated, majority-Black Richmond city schools at a time when busing and desegregation were major national issues. He also created the Virginia Governor’s Schools program and increased the number of women and Black people employed by the state.

Because of Virginia’s gubernatorial one-term limit, Holton could not run for a consecutive term in 1973, and Godwin won a second nonconsecutive term. Holton served a year as assistant secretary of state for congressional relations in the Nixon administration and then became a shareholder at the McCandlish Holton law firm. In 1978, Holton finished third in a race for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, ultimately won by U.S. Sen. John Warner.

In later years as the GOP skewed increasingly conservative, Holton endorsed Democrats, including his son-in-law Kaine and future President Barack Obama.

Holton scored many legislative achievements as governor, including progress in higher education, environmental policies and transportation. However, he will likely be remembered for being a “central part of the transition from the Byrd Machine to genuine two-party politics,” Howard says, as well as being a “moral authority in politics, [in] the sense of doing the right thing regardless of consequences.”

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