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NoVa, Hampton Roads housing markets improve in November

The Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads housing markets in November showed signs of improvement from the same month last year, including increased home sales and selling prices.

Northern Virginia

Home prices and sales activity in Northern Virginia rose year-over-year last month, indicating a healthier market than the November 2023 one.

November housing sales in Northern Virginia rose 10.8% from November 2023, according to data released Tuesday by the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.

Last month, 1,168 homes sold in Northern Virginia. There were 1,228 total pending sales last month, up 23.3% from November 2023.

In November, the region had 1,407 active listings, the same number as in November 2023. New listings totaled 817 units, below the five-year average of 1,239 new listings in November and down 2.25% from November 2023.

The month’s supply of inventory (MSI) — a measure of how many months there would be homes on the market if no new inventory were added — stood at 1.1, up from November 2023’s MSI of 1.05 but down from October, which had an MSI of 1.4.

November 2024 housing market statistics for Northern Virginia. Image courtesy Northern Virginia Association of Realtors

Homes spent an average of 22 days on the market in November, up 10% compared with the same month last year, and slightly higher than the 19-day average of October.

“By all accounts, November was a healthier real estate market compared to a year ago,” NVAR board member Arshia Kia with KW Metro Center said in a statement. “We have slightly more inventory, which helps buyers. The appetite for homeownership is strong, so even with more homes on the market, homes are selling well, which in turn is driving prices up from a year ago.”

The median sold price last month was $699,900, up 6.6% compared with November 2023 but down from the MSP of $715,000 recorded in October. For the third month in a row, total sales volume jumped significantly from the prior year, according to NVAR. Last month, November’s sales volume totaled more than $985.45 million, up 19.1% from November 2023.

NVAR reports home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.

Hampton Roads

In Hampton Roads, closed and pending sales, inventory, the median sales price and the median number of days that homes were on the market rose in November.

Home sales in the region totaled 1,899 in November, up 12.37% from the 1,690 sales recorded in November 2023 but down from October’s 2,115 sales, according to Real Estate Information Network (REIN) data released Tuesday.

“The year-over-year improvements are encouraging, and while November’s numbers were down from October, in a typical real estate environment, that dip is a seasonal expectation,” Gary Lundholm with The Real Estate Group, president of REIN’s board of directors, said in a statement.

“The year-over-year improvements in sales can be attributed to lower mortgage rates,” he added, “but also perhaps to additional inventory, which gives consumers more choices.”

November 2024 housing market data for Hampton Roads. Image courtesy Real Estate Information Network

Hampton Roads pending sales totaled 1,779 in November, down from 2,159 pending sales in October but up 10.22% from the 1,614 recorded in November 2023.

Hampton Roads had 4,565 active listings last month, down from 4,765 active listings in October but up 14.7% from November 2023’s 3,980 active listings.

The region’s MSI in November was 2.23, down from 2.35 in October and up from 1.91 in November 2023.

The median sales price in November stood at $350,000, down from October’s MSP of $354,000 but up 6% from the MSP of $330,000 recorded in November 2023.

Homes spent a median of 27 days on the market last month, unchanged from October. In November 2023, homes spent a median of 19 days on the market.

Founded in 1969, REIN is a regional multiple listing service that covers an area stretching from Williamsburg east to Virginia Beach and south across the North Carolina border.

NoVa, Hampton Roads home sales decline in August

Home sales in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads dropped year-over-year and month-over-month in August, although inventory and selling prices in both regions increased from the same time last year.

Northern Virginia

August home sales in Northern Virginia dropped 8.1% from August 2023, according to data released Sept. 12 by the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.

Home sales in the region last month totaled 1,411 units, down almost 14% from the 1,639 sales recorded in July. Pending sales stood at 1,280 units, down from 1,304 units last year.

There were 1,814 active listings in August, up almost 22% from 1,492 listings last year. New listings numbered 1,349 units, down from 1,410 in August 2023.

Housing inventory and prices in the region grew year-over-year and month-over-month in August. The month’s supply of inventory (MSI) — a measure of how many months there would be homes on the market if no new inventory were added — stood at 1.4 months, up from 1.08 months in August 2023 and up from the MSI of 1.3 in July. That inventory level is higher than the five-year average of a 1.2 MSI.

As inventory rose, homes stayed on the market longer — an average of 18 days, up 5.9% from August 2023 and up from July’s 16-day average.

The median sold price for a Northern Virginia home last month was $738,000, up 5.4% compared with August 2023 and up from the July median of $735,000.

“Fewer homes sold this August compared to last year even though consumers had more choices as supply loosened,” NVAR board member Tatiana Bush with eXp Realty said in a statement. “The increase in inventory did not dampen prices, which continued to climb. The good news is that mortgage rates are slowly declining, giving consumers more buying power.”

NVAR reports home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.

Hampton Roads

Home sales in Hampton Roads last month totaled 2,282, down about 8% from the 2,478 recorded in August 2023 and down 2.7% from July’s 2,346 sales, according to Real Estate Information Network (REIN) data released Aug. 10.

Pending sales in the region totaled 2,123, down from the 2,289 recorded in August 2023 and from the 2,315 reported in July.

The number of Hampton Roads homes for sale last month was the highest it’s been since October 2020, when the region had 4,887 active listings. Active residential listings totaled 4,811, up from 3,680 active listings last year and from July’s 4,461 listings. The month’s supply of inventory was 2.38, up from 1.68 in August 2023 and from 2.28 in July.

August 2024 statistics for the Hampton Roads housing market. Image courtesy Real Estate Information Network
August 2024 statistics for the Hampton Roads housing market. Image courtesy Real Estate Information Network

“Traditionally, when inventory increases, prices will fall, but I think recent data shows that despite increases in inventory, it’s still somewhat of a seller’s market here in Hampton Roads,” Gary Lundholm with The Real Estate Group, president of REIN’s board of directors, said in a statement. “Just five years ago during the same month, there were over 8,000 homes on the market. So, despite the increase in listings over the last few years, inventory is still well below what we might consider normal and that has impacted selling prices.”

In August 2019, active listings in the region totaled 8,824, which dropped to 5,105 listings in August 2020, then 4,467 in August 2021, and down again to 4,117 listings in August 2022.

The median sales price (MSP) for the region rose year-over-year and has risen about 37.5% from August 2019’s MSP of $255,000. Last month, the MSP stood at $350,620, up from the MSP of $341,100 recorded in August 2023 but down from July’s MSP of $355,500.

Hampton Roads homes spent a median of 21 days on the market, up from the median of 14 in August 2023 and from the 18-day median recorded in July.

Founded in 1969, REIN is a regional multiple listing service that covers an area stretching from Williamsburg east to Virginia Beach and south across the North Carolina border.

NoVa, Hampton Roads home sales rise in July

Home sales in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads rose year-over-year in July, while inventory as measured by active listings rose year-over-year and month-over-month for both. Both regions also saw median sales prices rise from the previous year but drop from June prices.

Northern Virginia

July home sales in Northern Virginia rose 13.5% from July 2023 and were up 0.8% from June, according to data released Tuesday by the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.

Home sales in the region last month totaled 1,639. Pending sales totaled 1,419 units, down from 1,507 in July 2023.

There were 1,764 active listings in July, up from 1,445 listings last year. New listings numbered 1,496 units, well below the five-year average of 2,251 new listings for the month of July.

Homes stayed on the market an average of 16 days, up 6.7% from July 2023 and up from June’s average of 14 days. The month’s supply of inventory (MSI) — a measure of how many months there would be homes on the market if no new inventory were added — stood at 1.3 months, the same MSI as June and a nearly 30% increase from July 2023. That inventory level is higher than the five-year average of a 1.2 MSI.

“The spike in inventory and homes sales in July are more good signs that our post-pandemic real estate market is getting back to what we previously considered normal,” NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin said in a statement.

The median sold price for a Northern Virginia home last month was $735,000, up 6.4% from July 2023 but down from the $780,000 median recorded for June.

“July’s supply of homes grew from a year ago, providing consumers with more options in a market that has been hungry to buy. This desire for housing continues to drive prices higher, but buyers are enjoying the availability of more homes,” NVAR board member Michele Brantley with Weichert Realtors said in a statement.

NVAR reports home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.

Hampton Roads

July home sales in Hampton Roads totaled 2,346, up 1.3% from the 2,316 sales recorded in July 2023 and down 0.38% from June’s 2,355 sales, according to Real Estate Information Network (REIN) data released in early August.

Pending sales also rose year-over-year, totaling 2,315 last month — up 4.5% from the 2,215 recorded in June and up 7.2% from the 2,159 recorded in July 2023.

July 2024 statistics for the Hampton Roads housing market. Image courtesy Real Estate Information Network
July 2024 statistics for the Hampton Roads housing market. Image courtesy Real Estate Information Network

The number of Hampton Roads homes for sale in July reached its highest point since October 2020, when the region had 4,887 active listings. Last month, active listings totaled 4,641, up 5.9% from June and up 34.4% year-over-year. The month’s supply of inventory for July was 2.28, up from 2.16 in June and from 1.54 in July 2023.

“We’re happy to see settled and pending sales up over last year,” Gary Lundholm with The Real Estate Group, president of REIN’s board of directors, said in a statement. “That’s good for our agents and brokers. Likewise, an increase in active listings offers more choices for home shoppers and is certainly helping to stabilize selling prices.”

The median sales price (MSP) for the region was $355,500 in July, up 4.5% from $340,000 in July 2023 but down from the region’s all-time high of $360,000 in June.

Homes in the region spent a median of 18 days on the market, up from the median of 16 days in June and the 12-day median recorded in July 2023.

Founded in 1969, REIN is a regional multiple listing service that covers an area stretching from Williamsburg east to Virginia Beach and south across the North Carolina border.

NoVa home sales rise dramatically in April

Northern Virginia home sales in April rose 13.5% from April 2023, the region’s first double-digit growth in sales since November 2021, according to data the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors released Tuesday.

In April, the region had 1,623 closed sales, up year-over-year and up 36% from the 1,191 homes sold in March, reflecting a spring market uptick. In November 2021, the last time NVAR recorded double-digit year-over-year growth in home sales, 2,124 homes sold in Northern Virginia, which was an 11% increase from November 2020.

“As April and February’s market data show, we are experiencing a thawing in our region, as we break through post-pandemic market conditions and see a little more inventory and inspired homebuyers,” Rob Carney with TTR Sotheby’s International Realty, an NVAR board officer, said in a statement. “Consumers are accepting that higher mortgage rates are a reality for now and are choosing to sell and buy anyway.”

New pending sales last month totaled 1,843 units, up 5.3% from April 2023. Active listings in the region numbered about 1,830 units last month, up 9.7% from the same month last year, while new listings reached 1,504 units, down roughly 4% from the 1,565 new listings recorded in April 2023.

Houses sold quickly last month, remaining on the market an average of 14 days, down from 18 days in April 2023 and from 16 days in March. The month’s supply of inventory (MSI) — a measure of how many months there would be homes on the market if no new inventory were added — stood at 1.1 months, up slightly from April 2023’s MSI of 1.0 and March’s MSI of 0.9.

High demand and low supply have helped drive increases in home prices, despite higher mortgage rates, according to NVAR. The median sold price last month was $751,000, up 8.8% compared with April 2023 and up about 2.88% from the median sold price in March. The total sold volume in April was close to $1.39 billion, up 22.6% from April 2023.

NVAR reports home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.

Home sales, prices up in NoVa, Hampton Roads, Central Va.

The Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads and Central Virginia housing markets showed positive trends last month, with month-over-month and year-over-year increases in home sales and median sales prices.

Northern Virginia

Northern Virginia home sales in February grew 2.2% from February 2023, marking the first year-over-year growth in the market’s home sales since November 2021, according to data the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors released Tuesday.

Northern Virginia had 1,020 home sales in February, up year-over-year and up from 771 units sold in January. Total sold volume in February also rose from last year, increasing 16.3% to $841.159 million. Before February, NVAR’s last recorded month with year-over-year growth in home sales was November 2021, when 2,124 homes sold in the region, an 11% increase from November 2020.

“Spring is always strong for the Northern Virginia real estate market, but this one is looking particularly positive as we are seeing more listings coming on the market as compared to a year ago, and those who are buying are willing to spend a little more,” David Raffinengo with KW Metro Center, an NVAR board member, said in a statement. “People are getting over the mortgage rate sticker shock, and with the potential for rates easing more, I believe we will see even more sellers willing to put their houses on the market.”

Homes sold faster than last year, staying on the market an average of 22 days — down 31.3% from February 2023 and down from January’s 29-day average.

Regional supply remained tight in February but grew slightly. The month’s supply of inventory (MSI) — a measure of how many months there would be homes on the market if no new inventory were added — stood at 0.9 months, up from the January MSI of 0.74 and the February 2023 MSI of 0.8.

Northern Virginia had 1,153 active listings last month, down 6.56% compared with February 2023. New pending sales in February totaled 1,177, down 2% from a year ago.

High demand continued to push prices up, according to NVAR. The median sold price for a home in February was $687,250, up 11.8% from a year ago and up from January’s median sales price of $650,000.

One local market had a 68.5% increase in its median sales price from February 2023. According to multiple listing service Bright MLS, only five homes sold in Falls Church last month, and the median sold price of those was $1.115 million.

NVAR reports home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.

The Bright MLS February housing market report on the Washington, D.C., metro includes a market outlook: “Buyers in the Washington, D.C., metro area have been frustrated by a lack of inventory, but it looks like there may be some relief on the way. In February, the number of new listings coming onto the market was 7.2% higher than a year ago; however, the market is still going to be very competitive across most of the region this spring,” according to the report.

Hampton Roads

The Hampton Roads market also had positive data points last month. The numbers of active listings, pending sales and settled sales increased month-over-month and year-over-year, according to the Real Estate Information Network (REIN).

February 2024 statistics for the Hampton Roads housing market. Image courtesy Real Estate Information Network
February 2024 statistics for the Hampton Roads housing market. Image courtesy Real Estate Information Network

In February, active residential listings in the region totaled 3,568, up from 3,538 in January and up 13.9% from the 3,130 listings reported in February 2023.

Pending sales totaled 2,138, up from 1,837 in January and up from 2,058 a year ago. The region had 1,709 settled sales, up from 1,470 sales in January and 1,684 sales in February 2023.

“These are some encouraging signs as we approach the spring season,” REIN Board President Gary Lundholm, with The Real Estate Group, said in a statement. “Of course, things can change quickly in real estate, but the median number of days properties are on the market also declined from January, which is good news for home sellers.”

Hampton Roads houses were on the market for a median of 22 days last month, down 10 days from January but up two days from February 2023.

In February, the median sales price for Hampton Roads homes also increased year-over-year and month-over-month, standing at $327,500. In January, the median sales price was $320,500, and in February 2023, the MSP was $313,650.

The month’s supply of inventory was 1.73, a slight increase from the January MSI of 1.72 and up from 1.24 a year ago.

Founded in 1969, REIN is a regional multiple listing service that covers an area stretching from Williamsburg east to Virginia Beach and south across the North Carolina border.

Central Virginia 

In Central Virginia, February residential property sales totaled 1,134, up 0.1% from last year, according to data from the Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVR MLS). In January, the market had 862 closed sales.

Pending sales were also up, at 1,311 in February, up 3.9% from February 2023 and up from 1,284 in January. New listings on the CVR MLS totaled 1,516, up 7.7% from a year ago and up from 1,418 in January.

Homes stayed on the market slightly longer, averaging 33 days, up one day from February 2023 and up from 28 days in January. The month’s supply of inventory stood steady at 1.4, the same as January and up from 1.2 last year.

The median sales price of homes sold in February in the region was $377,140, up 6.2% from the MSP of $355,000 reported last year and from January’s MSP of $367,500.

In the Richmond metro area — Richmond city and the counties of Chesterfield, Hanover and Henrico — the median sales price was $390,000, up 7.7% from February 2023’s MSP of $362,000. The metro area had 914 closed sales last month, up 6.3% from the 860 sales recorded in February 2023.

The CVR MLS monthly indicators report covers residential real estate activity, including single-family homes and townhomes/condos, in the counties of Amelia, Charles City, Chesterfield, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, King William, King and Queen, New Kent, Powhatan and Prince George and the cities of Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Petersburg and Richmond.

NoVa, Hampton Roads housing markets show positive signs

The Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads housing markets showed encouraging signs in January, despite the seasonal slowdown.

Northern Virginia

In Northern Virginia, January closed home sales dipped 0.9% from January 2023, with 771 units sold last month, according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors. Homes sold faster than in January 2023, though, with houses spending an average of 29 days on the market last month, down 19.4% from a year ago but up from 24 days in December 2023.

The month’s supply of inventory (MSI) — a measure of how many months there would be homes on the market if no new inventory were added — stood at 0.74 months, the same as December’s MSI but up 1.5% from January 2023.

“Lower rates and demand for homes this January brought a bit of optimism to the real estate market,” Veronica Seva-Gonzalez with Compass Realty, an NVAR board member, said in a statement. “In good news for buyers, inventory grew slightly, giving them a more a few more choices in the marketplace.”

Northern Virginia had 981 active listings last month, down 18.9% from a year ago. New pending sales in January totaled 1,033, down 9.3% from January 2023.

The median sales price for houses in January was $650,000, up 6.6% from a year ago but down from December’s median of $675,000.

“As predicted, we are seeing sales moderate as people react to lower rates and pent-up demand. I anticipate even more sellers will test the market, and buyers will continue to scoop up houses quickly, paying the higher prices,” NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin said in a statement.

NVAR reports home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.

Hampton Roads

In Hampton Roads, active residential listings last month totaled 3,538, up 1.4% from December 2023 and up 8.33% from the 3,266 listings reported in January 2023, according to the Real Estate Information Network (REIN).

January statistics for the Hampton Roads housing market. Image courtesy Real Estate Information Network
January 2024 statistics for the Hampton Roads housing market. Image courtesy Real Estate Information Network

Pending sales in January totaled 1,837, a 21.7% increase from the 1,509 reported in December 2023, but down from 1,843 in January 2023. The region had 1,470 settled sales last month, down from 1,708 in the preceding month and from 1,501 in January 2023.

The median sales price of homes sold in January was $320,500, which is down from $330,000 in December but up from $303,000 a year ago.

The month’s supply of inventory was 1.72 in January, up from 1.69 in December 2023 and from 1.27 in January 2023.

“For potential home buyers in the Hampton Roads region, the spring market is showing several positive factors,” REIN Board President Gary Lundholm with The Real Estate Group said in a statement. “Active listings are up over both last month and last year; we’re seeing mortgage rates trending down for the most part, and January’s median sales prices were the lowest they’ve been since last April.”

Homes, however, were on the market for a median of 32 days, the highest median days on the market in more than three years.

“The winter months are typically a bit slower in real estate,” Lundholm said in a statement. “And with interest rates being higher than usual and prices also staying level, it’s not surprising to see some properties sitting on the market longer than they normally would. We’ll see improvement though as the weather warms — especially if mortgage rates continue to drop.”

Founded in 1969, REIN is a regional multiple listing service that covers an area stretching from Williamsburg east to Virginia Beach and south across the North Carolina border.

August NoVa home price growth outpaces national rate

Home prices grew faster in Northern Virginia than nationally in August, according to a Northern Virginia Association of Realtors report released Monday.

The Northern Virginia market also had lower inventory than the nationwide market, but sales declined in both markets.

“Despite mortgage rate increases, demand for housing is outstripping available options in our region. Low inventory is much more pronounced in our region than nationally and is driving up prices,” NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin said in a statement.

The median sold price in Northern Virginia was $700,000 last month, up 11.6% from August 2022. The national median home price also rose, to $407,100, a 3.9% increase from August 2022.

Northern Virginia home sales last month dropped 12.4% from August 2022, but nationally, home sales fell 15.3%. In the region, properties stayed on the market for an average of 17 days, two days less than in August 2022, while across the U.S., properties remained on the market for 20 days, four days more than in August 2022.

Northern Virginia had a 1.08-month supply of inventory in August, down 1.4% from last year. Nationwide, the residential market had a 3.3-month supply of inventory, up from 3.2 months in August 2022.

NVAR reports home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.

Low inventory, high interest rates strap Va. housing market

Homebuyers in Virginia are continuing to feel the strain of low inventory and high interest rates.

The number of active listings on the market is shrinking, and fewer new listings are coming on the market. Despite a brief uptick in inventory at the beginning the year, about 67% of the state’s counties and cities had fewer active listings on the market at the end of July compared with a year ago, with Northern Virginia continuing to have the largest reduction in supply, according to a Virginia Realtors report released Aug. 22.

There were 16,508 active listings across the state in July, 3,881 fewer listings than the same month in 2022, a 19% drop. A total 10,948 new listings came onto the market last month, about 2,800 fewer new listings than the same period in 2022, a 20.3% decrease.

“Inventory conditions are worsening in most local markets in Virginia,” Virginia Realtors President Katrina M. Smith said in a statement. “With mortgage rates at a 20-year high and a low supply of homes on the market to move into, some would-be sellers are choosing not to list their homes. However, it is a seller’s market, and most who do sell their homes are receiving multiple offers.”

A total 8,985 homes sold in Virginia in July, a 20.8% decrease from July 2022, with 2,361 fewer sales. However, low inventory and strong demand have continued to drive up the price for homes; the statewide median sales price rose $15,000 from July 2022 to $400,000 in July 2023, an increase of nearly 4%. The median home price in Virginia is now more than $100,000 higher than it was at this time five years ago.

In a statement, Virginia Realtors Chief Economist Ryan Price called the state’s housing market “slow but competitive.”  Sellers are averaging more than three offers for their listings, which signals the market remains competitive, he said.

“These competitive conditions are driving up home prices and will likely continue to be a factor into the fall market and beyond,” Price said.

NORTHERN VIRGINIA

Meanwhile, Northern Virginia continues to feel the slump when compared to the national market. While national home sales dropped 16.6% in July compared to the previous year, Northern Virginia sales fell 20%, and were down 23.5% compared to June. At the same time, prices increased 1.9% nationally while Northern Virginia prices surged 6.3%, an increase from the previous year but a drop from the prior month, according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.

“July in the [Washington], D.C. area is a traditionally slower month for home sales as people vacation and Congress is out of session,” NVAR Board Member Rachel Carter, Alexandria branch vice president for Coldwell Banker Realty, said in a statement. “Even though sales are lower, people still looking to buy should expect higher prices since supply and demand are still not in sync.”

Mortgage rates topping 7% contributed to the tight supply of housing while pushing prices higher, according to NVAR. Nationally, the median home price in July was $406,700, an increase of 1.9% from July 2022. In Northern Virginia, the median sold price for a home in July 2023 was $691,000, a 6.3% increase from July 2022. However, NVAR said, homebuyers “got a break” from June 2023 as prices declined 3.8% from that period.

Across the country, unsold inventory sits at a 3.3 month supply, up from 3.1 months in June and 3.2 months in July 2022. In Northern Virginia, supply was at one month, down from 1.1 months in June and 1.23 months in July 2022., though it still remained close to the five-year average of 1.2 months of supply. The average days on the market in July 2023 was 15 days, no change from July 2022, and two days longer than June 2023.

“Our region’s sales dropped more than the country as a whole, but we continue to experience higher price escalation than the overall market since our area has very low inventory,” NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin said in a statement. “Factors for both are continued low inventory and high mortgage rates, which are affecting first time homebuyers in particular since they are competing with repeat homebuyers who have the advantage of utilizing their equity gains.”

Cash payments, propelled by high interest rates and buyers tapping into proceeds from selling their current properties, remained a popular way to buy a home. Nationally, all-cash sales accounted for 26% of transactions in July, up from 24% in July 2022. In Northern Virginia, cash sales accounted for 19% of all sales in July, up from 15% in July 2022.

NVAR reports on home sales for Fairfax and Arlington counties as well as the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.

According to an Aug. 11 report from NVAR:

  • The number of closed sales in July 2023 was 1,444 units, a 20% drop compared with July 2022 and a 23.5% compared to June 2023.
  • The sold volume in July 2023 totaled more than $1.15 billion, a 16.5% decrease compared with July 2022 and a 23.9% decrease compared to June 2023.
  • The average sold price for a home in July 2023 was $806,574, an increase of 4.9% from July 2022 and down 0.8% from June 2023.
  • The number of active listings in July 2023 was 1,445, down from June 2023, when there were 1,567 listings.
  • The total number of new pending sales in July 2023 was 1,507, a 4.4% decrease month over month.

Tight housing markets continue in NoVa, Hampton Roads

Home sales in Northern Virginia in June were up 3.6% from the previous month, but still down 16% compared with the same period a year ago, according to a report from the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors released Wednesday.

“Many factors” are pointing to the region’s market normalizing when comparing it to five-year trends, the report says.

“Homes continue to sell quickly, making sellers happy, and supply was up slightly compared to last month, which gave buyers a few more choices,” NVAR Board Member Casey Sutherland, a principal with Alexandria-based Rosemont Real Estate LLC, said in a statement. “The housing market is more rational than from the past few years, but many potential sellers remain sidelined, holding on to their better mortgage rates.”

The average home spent 13 days on the market in June, up 8.3% compared with June 2022 and consistent with May 2023. That’s getting closer to the five-year average for June at 15 days on the market. This is another sign that the market is moving back to more of a balanced state for buyers, NVAR says, though with sales still the below the 5-year average, the market remains competitive.

Inventory is also trending backward to the five-year average. The supply of inventory in June was 1.1 months, down 1.5% from June 2022, but close to the five-year June average of 1.2 months. That’s an increase over May 2023, when supply was 0.98 months of inventory.

Home prices continued to increase from June 2022 but leveled off from May 2023. The median sold price for a home in June 2023 was $717,999, up 4.9% from June 2022 and up 0.4% compared with May 2023.

“Our market has traditionally had less supply and stronger demand compared to many other housing markets, largely due to our healthy job market,” NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin said in a statement. “We expect demand will remain strong, favoring sellers but with a larger dose of normal that will give buyers a little more say.”

NVAR in June released a mid-year update to its NVAR Region 2023 Residential Real Estate Market Forecast. The forecast noted that a continued lack of housing inventory, soft demand creating a sellers’ market and favorable economic conditions tinged by mounting risks from inflation and other factors will lead to tighter inventories, sales declines and stable prices through the remainder of the year in the Northern Virginia market.

NVAR reports on home sales for Fairfax and Arlington counties as well as the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton. According to NVAR:

  • The number of closed sales in June 2023 was 1,887 units.
  • The sold volume in June 2023 totaled more than $1.5 billion, a 12.8% decrease compared to June 2022 and up 6% compared to May 2023.
  • The average sales price in June 2023 was $813,101, an increase of 3% from June 2022 and an increase of 1.5% from May of 2023.
  • The number of active listings in June 2023 was 1,567, down 32.2% from June 2022 and below the five-year June average of 2,244 active listings.
  • The total number of pending sales in June 2023 was 1,522, a 25.9% decrease compared to June 2022.

HAMPTON ROADS

While homes are still selling quickly in Northern Virginia, median sales prices (MSP) in Hampton Roads set a record for the second straight month in June, according to the Real Estate Information Network.

In June, the MSP for homes across Hampton Roads reached $345,000, up from May’s MSP of $335,000. 

June also saw increases in active listings and settled sales from the previous month, but active listings and settled sales are down significantly compared to June 2022.

“Seasonally, the month-over-month increases were expected, but they’re still important,” REIN Board of Directors President Jon McAchran, principal broker and co-founder of Virginia Beach-based AtCoastal Realty, said in a statement. “However, when we compare active listings and settled sales to last year, we’re still well below 2022 numbers, and inventory continues to be lower than where we need it to be for a healthy, balanced market.” 

The months’ supply of inventory (MSI) for June was 1.47, a month-over-month increase of 1.37 in May, and year-over-year from 1.33 in June 2022.

“The MSI is up mainly due to slowing sales, which in itself is being impacted by a lack of inventory, causing price increases,” McAchran said.

REIN is the multiple listing service in Hampton Roads, with coverage from Williamsburg to Virginia Beach and extending to the North Carolina boarder. It includes more than 9,000 members and licensees, including brokers, agents, appraisers and other real estate professionals. 

According to June data from REIN:

  • Active residential listings for June were 3,366, a 4.6% increase from 3,217 in May, but down 18.1% year-over-year from 4,114 in June 2022. 
  • Pending sales stood at 2,517. That’s down 11.8% from 2,856 in May and down 15.5% from 3,074 year-over-year. 
  • Settled sales during the month were 2,667. That’s a 6.6% increase from May, but down 19.7% from 3,320 in June 2022. 
  • Median days on market for residential listings was 11, the same as in May and an increase from nine days in June 2022.
  • Residential new construction sales were 257, up from 252 in May and down from 292 from June 2022. 

NoVa housing forecast: sellers’ market to continue

Northern Virginia’s housing market will likely remain a sellers’ market for the rest of 2023, according to a Northern Virginia Association of Realtors market forecast released June 6.

NVAR and George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis predict a continuing housing inventory shortage and pent-up demand from buyers amid positive economic conditions but mounting risks.

“Higher interest rates are impacting both buyers and sellers, causing housing inventories to be even tighter than during the pandemic, but with slightly softer demand pressures,” NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin said in a statement.

Mortgage rates have receded from recent highs but remain higher than pre-pandemic rates. For the week ending June 8, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was 6.71%, the first decline after a three-week climb, according to Freddie Mac data. While pricing remains strong, low housing inventory has decreased the number of units sold by about 20% from pre-pandemic norms.

GMU’s Center for Regional Analysis and industry experts predict that demand in Northern Virginia will remain soft compared with the last two years because some households are priced out of the market by higher mortgage rates. However, there is pent-up housing demand, and buyers seem to be accepting higher mortgage rates, especially since monthly rent rates are also increasing.

The forecast expects existing housing inventory shortages to increase, as current homeowners are less likely to move if they locked in lower mortgage rates. On average, the report predicts unit sales will decline from about 10% to 15%, compared with 2022.

“It will be hard to justify leaving a home with a refinanced loan below 3% for another home with a higher price and a loan rate that could be doubled,” said Terry Clower, director of GMU-CRA and the Northern Virginia chair of GMU’s Schar School of Policy and Government, in a statement.

Prices remain relatively stable, and NVAR and GMU-CRA expect prices to increase about 1% to 2% because of factors with conflicting effects: affordability and lessening demand versus low inventory and a resilient labor market.

The report includes expectations for three submarkets: Fairfax and Arlington counties and the City of Alexandria.

In Fairfax County, the largest locality in NVAR’s region, single-family home prices are predicted to have an average 0.7% price gain, while total unit sales will drop 10% for the year and inventories will drop 13%.

Fairfax County townhouses will lose 22% of inventory, and total unit sales will drop 15% annually. Median prices are expected to increase by 0.4%. The condo market will likely see a 23% decrease in sales and an average 4.3% rise in prices.

The average prices for single-family homes in Arlington are expected to increase 9.2%, with sales decreasing by 4% and inventories continuing to drop — the average number of units for sale will decrease by 7%.

Arlington townhome prices will remain flat because of dropping inventory, and the condo market will also have low inventory as condo owners stay put due to mortgage rates and a lack of available alternative housing options.

In Alexandria, home prices will increase about 1.6% as prices become less volatile, according to the report. Alexandria is expected to have a better sales trend than other markets in the region, with an increase in 5.4%, or 19 homes. Single-family housing supply in Alexandria will continue to decline but remain above late 2021 levels.

The Alexandria townhome market will likely see flat inventory levels, and unit sales will drop about 15% to about 619 units. Prices will rise about 3%, according to the forecast. Condo sales are expected to decline by about 17%. The annual average condo price will increase about 8%.

NVAR reports home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.