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The days of decades-high interest rates are over, as the Federal Reserve is ushering in a new era for financial markets — and, in turn, shaking up some of the advice money managers are offering their clients.
During one of its regularly scheduled meetings in September, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee lowered the federal funds rate — the interest rate banks charge each other to borrow money — by half a percentage point. That marked the first time policymakers cut interest rates after embarking on an aggressive strategy to raise the federal funds rate from near zero to as high as 5.5% between 2022 and 2023 in an effort to combat inflation that swelled to levels last seen in the early 1980s.
And in early November, the Fed cut its key interest rate again, that time by a quarter-point. Meanwhile, the consumer price index, a key measure of inflation, was 2.6%. That was down from 3.1% for the same period in 2023, a year when the CPI started out at 6.4%.
Of more significance than the rate cuts was the message they telegraphed to investors: With inflation sufficiently contained, Federal Reserve policymakers will refocus their efforts on achieving maximum employment. The Fed’s goal going forward is to gradually “normalize” interest rates so they’re not so restrictive to economic activity, explains Aashish Matani, a managing director and wealth management advisor with The AHM Wealth Management Group in Norfolk, a division of Merrill Private Wealth Management.
“The rate cuts are precautionary rather than reactionary,” Matani says. “The current economic environment is a point of strength; we’re not running from a recession, and inflation has come down.”
Understanding that context is important particularly because many people may associate periods of falling interest rates with economic turmoil. The last time policymakers slashed interest rates was during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic when they took swift action to stabilize the economy.
The Fed’s motivation this time around is different, particularly because the U.S. economy is “very strong,” says Dalal Salomon, founding partner and chief financial officer at Salomon & Ludwin in Richmond. “I don’t believe a recession is really in the cards at this point,” she says.
While unforeseen shocks to the economy could always cause the Fed to change course, policymakers are currently charting a course of steady rate cuts. The federal funds rate is projected to fall to about 3.4% by the end of 2025 and to 2.9% by the end of 2026, according to the median of year-end forecasts from central bankers.
Given the likelihood that interest rates are headed lower, what should you do with your money now? Matani, Salomon, and other Virginia-based financial advisers say it’s a prime time to reassess investment strategies and holdings.
Control what you can control
This new era of falling interest rates isn’t a reason to overhaul your saving and investing strategies, but it may serve as a good excuse to do a financial checkup.
“We have no control over how much the Fed will likely cut rates,” says Susan Kim, a private wealth adviser and managing partner of Kim, Hopkins & Associates, a financial advisory practice of Ameriprise Financial Services based in Vienna. “That’s why I tell my clients [to] focus on what you do have control over.”
Just as you prioritize family relationships and physical and mental health, it’s similarly important to think about your financial well-being, Kim says. Things you can easily control include your daily, weekly, and monthly expenses, along with the amount of money you save each pay period. She pushes clients to achieve a personal savings rate of 15% to 20%.
Another way to save money? By looking for opportunities to refinance debt. While central bankers directly control the fed funds rate, other interest rates tend to move directionally in sync — and you may stand to benefit.
Rates for 15- and 30-year mortgages have fallen “significantly” since peaking last year and are likely to come down further as the Fed continues cutting rates, Matani says. That means you should actively monitor how much you’re currently paying on your mortgage or other fixed-rate loans and be ready to refinance at lower rates, he adds: “Make sure you’re taking advantage of areas that you can.”
As the Fed ratcheted up interest rates, savers were benefiting by taking advantage of a variety of low-risk ways to earn 5% (or higher) returns on cash. These once-attractive options have already lost some of their luster.
If you were padding a high-yield savings or money market account with extra cash to earn easy returns, you may want to reconsider that decision now — while, of course, keeping in mind your specific financial goals and cash flow needs. “People are going to have to find a place to put that money, and the obvious place would be equities for long-term investments,” says Ryan Torguson, a wealth adviser, portfolio manager and partner with VWG Wealth Management in Vienna, a division of Hightower Associates.
Equities, including stocks, historically earn higher returns, albeit with more risk than fixed-income investments like bonds. People pouring money into the stock market could serve as a catalyst, while lower interest rates will reduce borrowing costs for Wall Street companies, which could further boost profits and returns, Torguson notes.
Because a lower interest rate environment will be a major theme for financial markets ahead, investors should consider tweaking their strategies. “This could be a good time to look at your portfolio and reevaluate your tolerance for risk,” Salomon advises.
Before the end of the year, investors also may want to consider selling assets that have outperformed the market, either to invest in areas of the market that have underperformed or to have extra cash on hand, Salomon notes. The stock market has notched one record high after another this year, and an eventual selloff is inevitable, though she urges investors to avoid trying to predict when that could happen and instead react once it has. “If markets are falling, we know that’s a great buying opportunity.”
In fact, the rate-cutting cycle, along with a new president, could result in more market volatility, Matani notes. But that’s no reason to stay on the sidelines. “Long-term investors don’t want to be out of this market,” he says.
Staying invested is also important for retirees or people preparing for retirement. A backdrop of lower interest rates once again makes one area of the stock market more attractive: companies that pay steady or growing dividends. “People who need to have predictable, growing income should invest in dividend-yielding stocks,” Kim says.
Building and maintaining a well-diversified portfolio is a good practice no matter what’s happening in the broader economy, but it’s especially important when a broader market shake-up is underway.
Matani and his colleagues have been recommending that clients increase their allocations to high-quality stocks that provide reliable cash flow and better growth potential amid lower interest rates and potentially slower economic growth ahead. Likewise, he says, it’s important to include “defensive” investments in your portfolio, such as shares of companies in the utilities, consumer staples and financial services sectors that could provide more resilience and help to cushion portfolios against uncertainty.
Even though there are no indications a recession is imminent, some investors who prefer a tactical approach to managing their portfolios may want to monitor consumer spending to watch for any signs of a slowdown. A more cautious investment strategy may be warranted, particularly as behaviors evolve, because consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic growth, Matani says: “The resilience of consumers is going to be important.”
Diversify beyond stocks
In addition to reevaluating your stock holdings, now is a good time to assess your broader portfolio diversification. Many investors have become less enamored with a traditional 60/40 portfolio — 60% invested in stocks and 40% in bonds — in favor of investing in a wider array of assets that includes cryptocurrencies and commodities.
There are opportunities to capitalize on lower interest rates beyond the stock market, including investments in commodities, Salomon notes. And lower mortgage rates don’t just benefit homeowners but will also make real estate investments more attractive once again, she adds.
Likewise, Matani has been recommending that clients adjust their portfolios in anticipation of lower interest rates, including allocating to sectors like real assets, including real estate, commodities and precious metals. “We’ve been telling clients: Make sure you’re diversified.”
But just because interest rates are coming down, that doesn’t mean you need to pile into financial markets in a more aggressive way than in the past. Advisers recommend that clients should have an emergency savings fund with three to six months’ worth of living expenses that’s readily available, and your financial situation may warrant having extra cash on hand right now.
For the past six months, Torguson and his colleagues have been advising clients to prepare for falling rates by opting for safe assets with longer duration maturities. That advice still stands — though the sooner you act, the higher rates you’ll secure.
For cash you don’t need in the immediate future, you may want to lock up money for several months — or, potentially, several years. The shortest-duration U.S. Treasury bonds or certificates of deposit (CDs), those that mature as soon as one month out, may offer the highest yields, but investors are better off opting for slightly lower rates in exchange for a longer-term guarantee.
“People who got into long-term bonds over the summer, with interest rates falling now, are going to appreciate that decision,” Salomon says.
Finally, don’t get so swept up by what the Fed is doing that you neglect some long-standing end-of-year money advice. The clock is ticking on several tasks that must be completed by year-end.
Now is a good opportunity to look at your charitable giving for the year and make any additional contributions, Torguson says. It’s also a popular time of year for tax-loss harvesting or selling any assets that are unprofitable to offset or reduce your capital gains tax burdens. “We’re talking to clients quite a bit about that and how to take advantage of any volatility that comes around the end of the year.”
On the flip side, Salomon says, selling profitable long-term investments may be a good idea if you believe capital gains tax rates are headed higher in the future. What’s more, some provisions of 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are set to expire in 2025, so she’s been working with some clients who are doing “pretty significant” estate planning ahead of that.
If it feels like there’s a lot going on, that’s because there is. As Matani notes, the end of year, coupled with the Fed cutting rates, the presidential election and sunsetting tax provisions is making for a “dynamic environment” in the four pillars of wealth management: financial strategy, investment strategy, tax minimization, and legacy planning. “This is a really important time,” he says, “to sit down and talk with your adviser.”
