Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Upcoming Event

Best Places to Work in Virginia

Hamburger Menu Hamburger Menu

Tag: gubernatorial race

Earle-Sears, Spanberger talk biz credentials in Va. Chamber forum appearances

They didn’t meet face-to-face, but the presumptive Republican and Democratic nominees for Virginia’s 2025 governor race addressed the same audience Friday at the 2024 Virginia Economic Summit and Forum on International Trade in Richmond.

Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, spoke just after 9 a.m. at the event co-sponsored by the Virginia Chamber of Commerce and the Virginia Economic Development Partnership, while U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination for governor, addressed the audience in the afternoon.

Earle-Sears focused her remarks on Virginia’s right-to-work status, which prohibits employers from requiring employees to belong to a union, saying that repealing the state’s law “will cost us billions in capital investments and tens of thousands of jobs,” and arguing that Spanberger has not answered questions about her views on the state’s right-to-work policy and could repeal the law as governor.

Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Photo by Ash Daniel

“We Virginians deserve a straight answer from Congresswoman Spanberger,” the lieutenant governor said. “Does she support our right-to-work law? I don’t have to tell you that if the effort to repeal right to work is ever successful, it will destroy Virginia’s economy and our workforce in several ways. No more new businesses will be moving to Virginia.”

Spanberger, who completes her third term in Congress at the end of the year, did not address Virginia’s right-to-work legislation or mention Earle-Sears by name in her speech Friday.

According to an October story in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Spanberger, through her spokeswoman, declined to say whether she supported or opposed the state’s right-to-work law. In Congress, she joined more than 200 House Democrats in supporting legislation from U.S. Rep. Bobby Scott protecting workers’ right to unionize. Spanberger’s congressional office directed a request for comment to her campaign, which did not immediately respond to an email Friday morning.

Instead, she laid out a list of priorities if elected governor, including investing more money in Virginia’s K-12 schools, its universities and community colleges, site development, and marketing the state’s economic development opportunities. She added that recruiting and retaining more teachers, easing the cost of child care and boosting workforce training efforts were also key priorities for her.

“I consistently hear over and over and over again the issue of … developing and building a skilled workforce,” Spanberger said. “Investing in our workforce shouldn’t start when someone turns 18, and I know this organization understands that.” Although as governor she couldn’t prevent President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs in his second term, Spanberger vowed, “I will work to maintain a stable, predictable business climate for Virginia. As governor, I will work to mitigate as much uncertainty as I can through transparency, collaboration and by working directly with Virginians.”

U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine made a surprise appearance at the forum and said that he has spoken with Trump’s transition staffers about Trump’s proposed tariffs, particularly the 25% levees against Canada and Mexico, which he said would be “very, very painful.” Kaine added that tariffs imposed by Trump in his first term impacted agriculture workers in Virginia particularly harshly, and farmers are currently dealing with “low commodity prices. You impose retaliatory tariffs on their products, making it harder to ship them elsewhere.”

Kaine said he would let Spanberger’s campaign respond to Earle-Sears’ comments on right-to-work laws, but added that his fellow Democrat has “been an amazing champion for infrastructure development, for manufacturing and for rural broadband, and those are really powering an awful lot of job announcements in Virginia.”

U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger. Photo by Ash Daniel

Earle-Sears declared her candidacy for governor in September, and in November, Virginia Attorney Gen. Jason Miyares, who was rumored to have been considering a run for the GOP nomination for governor, declared he would instead run for a second term as AG, leaving the path clear for Earle-Sears, who has received Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s endorsement. Youngkin is not permitted to seek a second, consecutive term as governor under state law.

In her speech Friday, Earle-Sears claimed credit as part of the Youngkin administration’s economic development wins since 2022, including Lego Group’s $1 billion project in Chesterfield County, and the launch of more than 10,000 “high-growth, high-wage startups in Virginia.” She also praised the current administration’s streamlining of business regulations and removal of red tape.

On a personal note, Earle-Sears said her entrepreneurial background and her father’s hard work as a Jamaican immigrant to the United States means the right-to-work law in Virginia “is more than a policy for me. When I was an employee, I valued the freedom to decide how to spend my wages that I worked hard for, and as a business owner, I respected that a good worker deserves this same freedom.”

In her speech, Spanberger said that she attended business school in Germany following her graduation from the University of Virginia and fully intended to enter the private sector, but she felt the calling to enter public service following the 9/11 attacks. In the early 2000s, she became a postal inspector and worked on narcotics and money laundering cases, before becoming an operations officer at the CIA. She noted that her experience in Congress has allowed her to hear from many business people and other stakeholders in Virginia.

“Whether you’re a business looking to grow or a locality trying to bring in investment, or a massive employer recruiting and retaining the workforce, you know that your challenges are complex in nature,” Spanberger said. “When I meet with Virginia business leaders and the local chambers, I always ask questions. I hear their concerns, and I take their criticism about how things can or should be improved.”

Spanberger announced her gubernatorial run in 2023 and did not seek re-election to her seat in Congress this year; Democrat Eugene Vindman will succeed her as U.S. representative in the state’s 7th congressional district in January 2025. In April, Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney announced he would drop his bid for governor and instead run for the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor, sparing the party a primary battle.

Although others could decide to enter the race before next spring’s primaries, as the race appears now, Virginia is poised to elect its first female governor next year.

Previously, the only other woman in Virginia’s history to receive a major party’s gubernatorial nomination was Mary Sue Terry, a Democrat from Martinsville who served two terms as the state’s attorney general. She ran for governor in 1993 but lost that race to Republican George Allen, who later also served as a U.S. senator.

Earle-Sears is also a history maker, as the first woman to serve as Virginia’s lieutenant governor and the first Black woman and immigrant to hold statewide office. A U.S. Marine Corps veteran and former state delegate, the Jamaican-born Earle-Sears took an unusual path to the Virginia State Capitol in a career that has included owning an appliance, plumbing and electrical company and managing a homeless shelter.

Spanberger has served three terms in Congress, first beating Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Dave Brat in 2018 in a traditionally GOP-leaning district, and maintaining her seat in 2022 after congressional redistricting. She currently represents Fredericksburg, Caroline County and part of Prince William County, and is viewed as a moderate Democrat.

Miyares declares run for 2nd term as Va. AG

Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares declared Monday he will run for a second term in 2025, leaving Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears a clear path to the Republican nomination for governor.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is prohibited by state law from serving consecutive terms as governor, endorsed both candidates following Miyares’ announcement. A former Virginia Beach delegate and son of a Cuban refugee, Miyares is the first Hispanic person elected to statewide office in Virginia. He defeated Democratic incumbent Mark Herring in 2021’s GOP sweep of Virginia’s top three statewide offices, along with Earle-Sears and Youngkin.

Miyares will likely face either former state Del. Jay Jones or Shannon Taylor, Henrico County’s commonwealth’s attorney, on the Democratic side.

Earle-Sears announced in September her candidacy for the Republican nomination for governor, following U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s declaration in November 2023 that she would seek the Democratic nomination. Miyares was also rumored to be considering a bid for governor, but his announcement Monday keeps Earle-Sears, the state’s first Black woman and immigrant to serve in a statewide office in Virginia, from having to run a potentially expensive primary campaign to win the GOP nomination. Spanberger is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

“In 2021 Winsome, Jason, and I ran as a team, and we have served Virginians as a team,” Youngkin said in a statement endorsing Earle-Sears and Miyares. “In 2025, Winsome and Jason will once again lead the Republican team as candidates for governor and attorney general. Both have been indispensable partners to advance our shared, commonsense conservative policies that have made Virginia the best state in America for business, backed the blue and cracked down on crime, stood strong for our military and veterans, and transformed education by raising teacher pay, re-establishing academic excellence, and empowering parents in their child’s education and life.”

 

Stoney declares candidacy for Va. governor

Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney declared his candidacy for governor Monday, setting up an early contest with U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who announced her own run for the Democratic nomination last month. The general election will take place in November 2025.

If elected, he would be Virginia’s second Black governor, more than 30 years after the historic election of Gov. L. Douglas Wilder.

Stoney, who was elected to his first term as mayor in 2016 and re-elected in 2020, filed his paperwork last week for the Democratic gubernatorial race and had spoken about his plans to run earlier in November. In his announcement released Monday morning, Stoney tells his life story. Raised in York County by his father and grandmother in a “working poor family,” Stoney says he was the first member of his family to graduate from high school and then graduated from James Madison University, where he received a degree in public administration and political science.

He served as Virginia’s first Black secretary of the commonwealth under Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who prioritized restoring voting rights to Virginians convicted of felonies. Stoney said in his announcement that he helped restore the right to vote to nearly 200,000 people during his time in McAuliffe’s administration, which ended in 2018. Stoney resigned as secretary after launching his campaign to become Richmond’s mayor in 2016, and became the city’s youngest elected mayor at age 35.

Stoney’s tenure as mayor has been mixed, as major economic development projects he supported failed — the $1.5 billion Navy Hill development, proposed to replace the now-shuttered Richmond Coliseum, was spiked by Richmond City Council in early 2020 after strong community opposition, and a $562 million casino referendum was defeated a second time by Richmond voters last month.

Despite the faltering of those projects, Stoney’s administration has moved forward with the Diamond District, a $2.44 billion project to replace the city’s baseball stadium, home to the Double-A Richmond Flying Squirrels team, as well as add two hotels, 3,000 residential units, 935,000 square feet of office space, and 195,000 square feet of retail and community space. The new stadium is expected to open in spring 2026, a year after a deadline set by Major League Baseball for all Minor League facilities to meet new standards.

Meanwhile, the city’s Economic Development Authority and the Greater Richmond Convention Center Authority have selected four development teams that will compete to redesign the 9.4-acre downtown site that includes the Coliseum, although the city declared a concert venue will not be built there.

In 2020, Stoney received praise from some quarters for removing Richmond’s Confederate statues on Monument Avenue, following large racial justice protests sparked by the police killing of George Floyd in May 2020 in Minneapolis. That summer, Richmond was the site of daily protests, including one in which police tear-gassed a crowd of protesters at the former Robert E. Lee monument.

Stoney, who spoke against police brutality in the days following Floyd’s murder while also standing with Richmond’s police, faced local anger after the tear-gassing incident, which ultimately ended in a civil rights lawsuit against city police. In 2022, the suit was settled for an undisclosed amount.

The mayor’s announcement for governor highlights the building of new city schools, creating a budget surplus and reducing the poverty rate by 22% during his tenure. In March, Richmond’s Office of Community Wealth Building reported that the overall poverty rate in the city was 19.8%, and according to the U.S. Census’ American Community Survey, about 21% of children in Richmond and 21.4% of Latinos were living below the poverty line in 2021, about half the number recorded in 2012.

In addition to serving as mayor and secretary of the commonwealth, Stoney was president of the Democratic Mayors Alliance and served as executive director of the Democratic Party of Virginia. In 2022, he married Brandy Washington, a manager of Altria Group, and in Monday’s announcement, Stoney says they are expecting their first child, a girl, this spring.

Although Spanberger and Stoney are the only two gubernatorial candidates who have officially launched campaigns for 2025, on the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Attorney Gen. Jason Miyares are likely candidates. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is barred from seeking consecutive terms under Virginia law. Spanberger has received significant endorsements since declaring, including from former Gov. Ralph Northam and former U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello, a member of the state’s more progressive Democratic wing.

 

 

2021 Political Roundtable: Surfing Va.’s red wave

The day after Election Day, Virginia Business’ six Political Roundtable panelists hashed out what they think the next year will be like in a Richmond where Republicans are roaring back to power.

Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin, a first-time political candidate and multimillionaire former private equity CEO, defeated former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, leading a GOP sweep of Virginia’s three statewide offices. Republicans also will return to power in the state House of Delegates after two years of Democratic control that led to a wave of progressive legislation. This year’s elections were a triumph for Republicans and a nadir for Democrats, who now control the Virginia Senate by the thinnest of margins.

Our experts who took part in the 15th annual Virginia Business Political Roundtable at the Richmond Marriott on Nov. 3 included Becky Bromley-Trujillo, research director of Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Civic Leadership; Barry DuVal, president and CEO of the Virginia Chamber of Commerce; James W. “Jim” Dyke Jr., senior state government relations adviser with McGuireWoods Consulting LLC; Stephen Farnsworth, director of the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies; Chris Saxman, executive director of Virginia FREE; and Amanda Wintersieck, assistant professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University. Sponsored by Cox Communications Inc., the event was moderated by Virginia Business Editor and Chief Content Officer Richard Foster.

The 2021 election results made clear that “the tide goes in and the tide goes out” in Virginia, observed Farnsworth. “You’re looking at an environment where this was a purple state that didn’t like Trump, so it looked kind of blue for a while. That tide made us think perhaps … that Virginia had changed in a fundamental way. This election was much more of a return to the norm.”

Also, McAuliffe made a few harmful missteps, particularly stating during a debate that parents should not determine what their children study at school.

“The minute I heard that comment,” Dyke said, “I knew … that this was going to be an uphill battle.”

Saxman called McAuliffe’s comment “second only to ‘macaca’ as the worst moment” in a Virginia election, referring to former Sen. George Allen’s racially offensive gaffe in the 2006 U.S. Senate race, which Allen lost to political novice Jim Webb. 

Bromley-Trujillo noted that today’s elections are increasingly impacted by national politics. “I’d say that, for Youngkin, focusing on education was very rational. Tapping into that resentment that people felt, related to education and the parents feeling a loss of control. Critical race theory is not the same as that, but it’s related to that.”

Wintersieck added that the fact that critical race theory — or at least the idea of white children being taught about racism in school — was in the national news for months meant that Youngkin did not have to introduce the concept to voters. “It was low-hanging fruit in many ways.”

Dyke argued that McAuliffe seemed to take Black voters for granted: “It was a general feeling that, ‘They always are going to vote for us, so I don’t have to really say anything to address that community — not until the last 10 days of the campaign when I go to every Black church in the state.’”

Had state Sen. Jennifer McClellan won the Democratic gubernatorial primary, becoming the first Black woman nominated by a major party for the governorship, “that would have excited not only minority communities but women,” Dyke added.

Youngkin also benefited from his deep pockets, good timing and messaging, Saxman said. “As that all came together, it really became a perfect storm for Democrats. It still was a very close outcome. The many, many House races were exceptionally close. Both caucuses are going to have to deal with that reality.” Farnsworth noted that voters in 2021 were more likely to vote for candidates from one party, rather than “one from column A and another from column B,” as in earlier Virginia elections.   

Commenting on Youngkin’s campaign platform, DuVal said he expects to see legislation passed to reduce or eliminate grocery and gas taxes, as well as a greater emphasis on economic development. “Virginia has missed out on some huge projects that were supported by labor, education and businesses. The main reason is [because] Virginia has not … invested in site development that could host these large manufacturers.”

Wintersieck noted that earlier Democratic-led legislation such as marijuana legalization and high-speed rail expansion, as well as restoring felons’ voting rights, could be reversed in the 2022 General Assembly session.

Youngkin wins tight governor’s race, defeating McAuliffe

After a nine-figure avalanche of TV commercials, slick mailers and high-powered political rallies, The Associated Press declared Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin as Virginia’s 74th governor Wednesday, leading a Republican sweep of statewide offices and the party’s possible regain of control in the House of Delegates.

A political newcomer and former co-CEO of Washington, D.C.-based private equity firm The Carlyle Group, Youngkin held a nearly three-point lead just after midnight over former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, his Democratic opponent. The AP called the race for Youngkin at 12:40 a.m. Wednesday.

With 99.8% of Election Day votes and 91.9% of early votes counted, Youngkin had 51.01% of the vote, compared with 48.29% for McAuliffe.

Taking the stage to the guitar chords of the ’70s rock gospel hit “Spirit in the Sky,” a jubilant Youngkin promised to eliminate Virginia’s grocery tax, double residents’ standard tax deduction, pump more funding into law enforcement and allow charter schools across the commonwealth.

“We will not be a commonwealth of low expectations,” Youngkin said. “We will be a commonwealth of high expectations. Friends, all of that has changed tonight.”

He did not refer to his opponent at all during his 12-minute victory speech.

McAuliffe conceded the race in a statement Wednesday morning, congratulating Youngkin on his win. “While last night we came up short, I am proud that we spent this campaign fighting for the values we so deeply believe in. We must protect Virginia’s great public schools and invest in our students. We must protect affordable health care coverage, raise the minimum wage faster and expand paid leave so working families have a fighting shot.”

He added, in an apparent reference to Trump-era Republicanism, “above all else, we must protect our democracy. While there will be setbacks along the way, I am confident that the longterm path of Virginia is toward inclusion, openness and tolerance for all.”

Gov. Ralph Northam issued a statement Wednesday congratulating Youngkin, thanking the state’s department of elections, registrars and poll workers for a “free and fair election with integrity.” He added, “Over the past four years, Virginia has accomplished something unique in America — delivering the most progressive agenda in the country, while also preserving traditions of fiscal responsibility and economic stewardship. Most importantly, we have made Virginia a more welcoming, open, and inclusive commonwealth. Virginians expect this critical work to continue.”

The down-ticket races also came down to the wire, although Republican lieutenant governor candidate Winsome Sears held a 51.4% lead over Democratic Del. Hala Ayala’s 48.5%, while Republican Del. Jason Miyares had 51.1% of the attorney general vote count, over 48.85% for Democratic incumbent Attorney General Mark Herring.

On Wednesday morning the AP called those races for Miyares, who will be the first Cuban American to hold statewide office, and Sears, the first Black woman to do so. Republicans appeared headed for control of the House of Delegates, although the AP said Wednesday morning several races were too close to call.

“I think they are excited about Youngkin,” Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, said of Republican voters. “I think they were excited by the idea that a candidate ran as effective a campaign as Youngkin ran, spoke about the issues that they cared about. Critical race theory embodied a lot of the issues that Republican voters were frustrated about related to education and the schools being shut down and all the vaccines and all that kind of stuff. Youngkin was able to energize voters — more than voters were excited about Youngkin. Let’s be honest, Youngkin was an unknown quantity until mid-summer when he spent millions of dollars to introduce himself.”

In the most expensive gubernatorial race in Virginia’s history, the two major-party candidates raised more than $117 million through Oct. 21, compared to the previous record of $64.7 million raised by Northam and his Republican opponent, Ed Gillespie. Youngkin poured at least $20 million of his own fortune into his campaign, including $3.5 million during the first three weeks of October.

McAuliffe made an appearance just after 10 p.m. Tuesday but did not concede the race, instead saying that he would “continue the fight.” He thanked supporters and stood flanked by family members and Gov. Ralph Northam. There was a delay in calling the race even as Youngkin continued to hold the lead late Tuesday, and according to the Virginia Public Access Project, as many as 30,000 absentee votes may remain to be tallied in Fairfax County.

For a state that appeared to be growing bluer in recent years, the election results were a rebuke for state Democrats after they regained political control of state government just two years earlier. Republicans gained six seats in the House of Delegates, giving the party a 51-seat majority over Democrats, which retained 49 seats. Now Democrats only hold a majority in the Virginia State Senate, which was not up for election this year.

The gubernatorial race received heavy national media attention, as it is considered a predictor for the 2022 midterm elections. President Joe Biden has seen his approval rating sink in recent months as the COVID-19 pandemic lingers and his trillion-dollar infrastructure package stalls in Congress. In Virginia, where he won the 2020 presidential election by 10 points, Biden’s approval rating stood at 45%, with 48% of respondents disapproving of his performance in an Oct. 7 poll of Virginia voters by Emerson College and Nexstar Media Group.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, speaks Tuesday in Fairfax County. He did not concede the Virginia governor’s race in his speech but trailed Republican Glenn Youngkin all night. Photo by Stephen Gosling

McAuliffe heavily relied on his previous stint as governor during much of the general campaign, touting his economic development triumphs and promising to build on the state’s two-year status as the nation’s top state for business, as selected by CNBC. McAuliffe also consistently invoked the specter of former President Donald Trump, trying to link Youngkin to the ex-president — an attempt to scare off suburban voters from the GOP candidate. Although Trump endorsed Youngkin and stated his support for the candidate in televised rallies, Youngkin mostly steered clear of the former president during the race.

In the campaign’s final weeks, as polls indicated a tighter race, McAuliffe called on high-profile Democrats — President Biden, former President Barack Obama and Vice President Kamala Harris — to campaign on his behalf. Even Grammy-winning superstar Pharrell Williams made a last-minute pitch in Norfolk last week for McAuliffe, accompanying Harris.

And although Youngkin entered the race as a relatively unknown businessman who amassed a multimillion fortune as co-CEO of The Carlyle Group, he pivoted his campaigning from a focus on economic development and job creation in earlier months to culture war messaging about critical race theory and parents’ say over their children’s educations — a move McAuliffe called a “racist dog whistle” on a “Meet the Press” appearance.

Some political soothsayers said early this week that the race appeared to be breaking in the Republicans’ favor. Although the University of Virginia Center for Politics hedged its bets a bit, it ultimately rated the governor’s race as leaning Republican on Monday, a shift from “leans Democratic.”

“There’s a point in every election cycle where decided voters decide to show up and vote, and undecided voters decide which way they’re going to vote,” Chris Saxman, a former Republican delegate who is now executive director of Virginia FREE, a nonpartisan, business-focused political group, said Tuesday before polling stations closed. “It creates a break and it’s hard to turn that momentum around and then it accelerates. And I think that’s what you’re seeing right now in Virginia.”

Spurred by conservative parents’ occasionally unruly protests at school board meetings — including a Loudoun County meeting that led to a man’s arrest — Youngkin seized on McAuliffe’s rhetorical gaffe during a late September debate in which McAuliffe said, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.”

Soon after that, Youngkin’s team deployed the McAuliffe quote in a campaign ad aired many times during October, followed by a commercial featuring a Fairfax County woman who said her son was given “nightmares” by reading Toni Morrison’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel “Beloved,” which was assigned in his AP English class several years ago. The book deals with the story of a woman who kills her 2-year-old daughter to save her from enslavement in the 19th-century South, and includes scenes of rape and other violence.

Later reporting by The Washington Post noted that the woman, Laura Murphy, advocated for a bill passed by the General Assembly in 2016 that gave parents the right to opt out their children from reading sexually explicit books — a bill vetoed by then-Gov. McAuliffe.

“Youngkin was a very effective first-time candidate,” said Stephen Farnsworth, University of Mary Washington professor of political science and director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies. “He was able to capitalize McAuliffe’s education misstep during the debate. Youngkin was also very effective at navigating the challenge of Trump. He was able to keep Trump supporters onside during the campaign, and also kept enough daylight between himself and the former president so that he could win over suburban Republicans who backed Romney but didn’t like Trump much.”

Another issue for McAuliffe: low excitement among Democratic voters. Although the former governor was the clear winner of the June Democratic primary, out-fundraising and vaulting over more diverse and lesser-known candidates, younger and more progressive voters expressed dismay over his selection as the party’s nominee — a moderate-leaning, 60-something white man. Among his primary challengers were state Sen. Jennifer McClellan and former Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy, either of whom could have been Virginia’s first female governor and the first Black governor of Virginia since Gov. L. Douglas Wilder was elected in 1989.

In the general election, third-party candidate Princess Blanding, a progressive who ran primarily on a platform of criminal justice reform, was polling at about 1% going into Election Day — enough to worry Democrats in the tight gubernatorial race. Her brother, high school biology teacher Marcus-David Peters, was shot and killed by a Richmond police officer in 2018 while Peters was suffering a mental health crisis.

“In many ways, politics as usual is not the best route forward for the Democrats,” Amanda Wintersieck, an assistant professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University, said Tuesday before election results came in. “Princess Blanding is polling at 1 to 4%. She’s present in this election because the progressive element of the Democratic Party and the minority element … don’t know that Democratic politics are meeting their needs.”

Ambiguously funded political PACs also funded attack ads and campaigns against both major party candidates. Some of the worst mudslinging came from out-of-state groups, including the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, which acknowledged it was behind a controversial protest in Charlottesville last week during which a small group of white-shirt-and-khaki-clad people carrying tiki torches stood in pouring rain in front of a Youngkin campaign bus. It was a callback to the far right and white supremacist “Unite the Right” protesters who invaded the University of Virginia and downtown Charlottesville in August 2017, injuring several people and killing one woman when a man drove his car into a crowd downtown.

The campaign stunt, which aimed to tie Youngkin to the alt-right movement, was held the same week as jury selection for a civil trial against organizers of the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville’s federal court. Many in Virginia condemned the protest, saying it made light of a traumatic experience.

“Outside spending in this race is at an all-time high,” Wintersieck added. “We’re seeing a massive influx of money from non-Virginians. It’s changing the dynamics of the race, and it’s changing the issues that are being talked about, and it’s drawn the nation’s attention to this race.”

Virginia Business Editor Richard Foster and Associate Editor Robyn Sidersky contributed to this report.

Va. governor’s race coming down to the wire

One week out from Election Day, the Virginia governor’s race remains very close, according to two polls released this week. Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic nominee, has small leads over Republican challenger Glenn Youngkin that are within the surveys’ margins of error.

Released Wednesday morning, Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Civic Leadership’s poll has McAuliffe with 49% of support among likely voters, compared with Youngkin’s 48%, meaning that third-party progressive candidate Princess Blanding’s 1% polling among voters could potentially impact the race. The CNU poll’s margin of error is 3.5%. According to Tuesday’s poll from Virginia Commonwealth University’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government, McAuliffe has a 41% lead against Youngkin’s 38%, within the poll’s 5.03% margin of error.

Down-ticket Democrats — Attorney General Mark Herring and lieutenant governor candidate Del. Hala Ayala — also have one-point leads over their Republican counterparts, Del. Jason Miyares and Winsome Sears, reports the CNU poll, which has 5% of respondents undecided between Miyares and Herring, and 4% undecided between Ayala and Sears. Similarly, VCU reports only a one point difference between Ayala and Sears, with the Democrat carrying 36% of support. VCU shows Herring with a four-point lead over Miyares, at 39% to 35%.

VCU’s survey shows more voters who are unhappy with either candidate in all three races, as well as a lowering of support for Gov. Ralph Northam. Only 46% approve of the job he is doing, a five-point drop.

“The poll reflects a tightening of the race for the three top offices. The number of voters unhappy with either candidate for governor and the decrease in Northam’s approval rating is noteworthy,” former Gov. L. Douglas Wilder said in a statement.

“McAuliffe is facing strong headwinds in a state that has historically selected governors from the party not in the White House and with a Democratic president whose approval rating is underwater,” Wason Center Research Director Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo said in a statement. “Republican voters also appear hungrier for a win and increasingly see a chance to take a statewide race for the first time since 2009.”

CNU’s poll shows that 80% of Republican likely voters are “very enthusiastic” about the election, compared with 65% of Democratic likely voters. That enthusiasm gap is a GOP advantage that has surged nine points since the Wason Center’s Oct. 8 survey.

VCU’s poll surveyed 808 adults in Virginia from Oct. 9 to Oct. 21, and when considering likely voters only, the margin of error was 6.44%. CNU polled 944 likely Virginia voters from Oct. 17 through Oct. 25.

This year’s gubernatorial race far exceeded previous campaign spending. According to the latest campaign finance reports, Youngkin and McAuliffe collectively raised $117 million through Oct. 21, compared to $64.7 million raised by Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie at this stage four years ago, the Virginia Public Access Project reported. A former CEO of The Carlyle Group, Youngkin has spent $20 million so far on his campaign, including $3.5 million in October, bringing his total fundraising to $58.8 million. McAuliffe, a prodigious Democratic Party fundraiser, raised $28 million in campaign contributions this month and has brought in a total of $58.2 million.

McAuliffe has also pulled in several marquee names to support his campaign in recent days, including President Joe Biden, former President Barack Obama, first lady Jill Biden and voting rights advocate Stacey Abrams. Music superstar Pharrell Williams, a Virginia Beach native, and Vice President Kamala Harris are scheduled to appear at a campaign event for McAuliffe on Friday in Norfolk.

VCU poll shows McAuliffe with 9-point lead in governor’s race

A new statewide poll from Virginia Commonwealth University shows Democratic former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe with a nine-point lead over Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin, a far different take than the much tighter race indicated by a Washington Post-George Mason University poll released Saturday.

VCU’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs released its second Virginia gubernatorial poll results Monday, indicating that while McAuliffe has 43% of likely voters’ support and Youngkin only 34%, the attorney general and lieutenant governor races have gotten closer in the past month.

VCU’s August poll showed the two gubernatorial candidates in practically a dead heat, while Democratic Attorney General Mark Herring and lieutenant governor candidate Del. Hala Ayala held 10-point leads over their respective GOP opponents, Del. Jason Miyares and Winsome Sears.

“Our recent poll relative to the governor’s race and statewide elections showed interesting results,” former Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder said in a statement Monday. “Neither McAuliffe nor Youngkin had 50% support. The increase in the undecided and those unable to commit for either is noteworthy. The poll was taken prior to any debates. How the candidates show the people what they propose dealing with the pandemic and its effects are obvious concerns. The narrowing of the lead by the Democratic candidates in the lieutenant governor and attorney general races and increased ‘undecided’ shows ‘the jury’ may be out awhile longer.”

The poll of 811 adults in Virginia was conducted Sept. 7-15 with a margin of error of 5.35%, which increases to 6.93% when considering likely voters only. In the attorney general race, incumbent Herring has a six-point lead over Republican Miyares, 39% to 33%, and Ayala appears to have lost ground against Sears, with a 33% to 30% lead that falls within the margin of error. However, 20% of voters said they remain undecided or unwilling to vote for either lieutenant governor candidate.

It’s a similar story for the two major-party governor contenders; 23% of those polled said they are still undecided or are unwilling to vote for either candidate. A third-party candidate, Princess Blanding, is considered a possible spoiler for McAuliffe among progressive Democratic voters. Blanding — the sister of Virginia teacher Marcus-David Peters, who was killed by a Richmond police officer in 2018 — was not included in Thursday’s first gubernatorial debate, but according to a Youngkin campaign internal poll cited by FiveThirtyEight, her presence could help Youngkin beat McAuliffe.

A poll of 907 likely voters conducted Sept. 7-13 by The Washington Post and GMU’s Schar School of Policy and Government showed McAuliffe with a much narrower lead, 50% over Youngkin’s 47% — within the margin of statistical error. Mark Rozell, the Schar School’s dean, called the race a “toss-up” in the Post.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s falling approval numbers may also hamper McAuliffe’s campaign for a second, nonconsecutive term. The Wilder School poll shows 46% of Virginians approving of the job the Democratic Biden is doing, down five points from August — likely influenced by factors such as the U.S. military’s turbulent exit from Afghanistan and increasing disagreements over the Biden administration’s coronavirus responses, including vaccine-or-testing mandates for companies employing 100 or more workers.

In state delegates’ races, Democrats maintained a slight edge over Republicans in the VCU poll, with 43% of respondents saying they’d like the party to retain control next year. Five percent were undecided, and 39% wanted Republicans to regain power in the House.  Democrats hold a 55-seat majority in the House of Delegates, and all 100 seats are up for grabs.

Virginia’s early voting period started Sept. 17, and Election Day is Nov. 2.

CNU poll: McAuliffe leads Youngkin by 9 points

Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe and down-ballot Democratic candidates have significant leads over GOP gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin, former co-CEO of The Carlyle Group, and the state Republican ticket, according to a survey of 800 likely voters released Thursday by Christopher Newport University’s The Wason Center for Civic Leadership and AARP Virginia.

McAuliffe received 50% of the likely vote, while Youngkin received 41%. McAuliffe received strong support from women, netting 55% to Youngkin’s 36%. He also leads among voters 50 and older, with 49% to Youngkin’s 44%. McAuliffe leads in Northern Virginia, 59% to 33%; the Richmond area, 48% to 40%; and Hampton Roads, 52% to 41%.

The margin of error for the survey is 3.6%. The polling was conducted done from Aug. 15 to 23.

Ninety-five percent of Republican likely voters supported Youngkin. He is strongest in the South/Southwestern area of Virginia area as defined by The Wason Center, with 53% of the likely vote to McAuliffe’s 37%.

“These numbers reflect a state that continues to trend blue in presidential and statewide elections as demographic shifts endure in the commonwealth,” Wason Center Research Director Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo said in a statement. “While there is still room for movement in the race, Youngkin has a tightrope to walk between Trump supporters and more moderate voters across the suburbs of Virginia.”

On Aug. 20, the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University released its gubernatorial election poll. Its results had McAuliffe polling slightly ahead at 40% and Youngkin at 37% among likely voters. This poll was conducted from Aug. 4 to 15 and had 823 respondents.

In the race for lieutenant governor, Del. Hala Ayala, D-Prince William County, leads former Republican Del. Winsome Sears 52% to 42%, with 6% undecided, according to The Wason Center poll. Ayala leads among younger voters, 57% to 35%; Black voters, 84% to 6%; and women, 55% to 38%. Sears has support from 95% of the Republican base and voters in the South/Southwest region (54% to 37%), with a slight majority of white voters (51% to 44%).

In the attorney general race, Democratic incumbent Mark Herring leads Del. Jason Miyares, R-Virginia Beach, 53% to 41%, with 6% of respondents undecided. Herring slightly outperforms McAuliffe and Ayala among women, Black voters and younger voters.

All 100 House of Delegates seats also are up for election. In a generic ballot test, which asks respondents if they will vote for the Republican or the Democratic Party’s candidate for the body in the Nov. 2 election, those polled favored Democrats 50% to 43%.

In the regional breakdown, 32% of respondents reported residing in Northern Virginia, 24% in Richmond/Central Virginia, 24% in Hampton Roads/Eastern Virginia and 21% in the Southern Virginia/Southwest region.

VCU poll shows McAuliffe, Youngkin in dead heat

The Republican and Democratic candidates for Virginia governor are in a virtual tie, a new poll by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University reported Friday.

Democratic former Gov. Terry McAuliffe is polling ahead at 40%, while Republican Glenn Youngkin, former co-CEO of The Carlyle Group, polled at 37% among likely voters.  McAuliffe’s 3% lead falls within the poll’s 5.23% margin of error, according to the Wilder School. Another 23% of voters polled said they are undecided or unwilling to vote for one of the two major party candidates. Conducted during Aug. 4-15,  the poll questioned 823 Virginia adults about their voting plans.

Democratic lieutenant governor candidate Del. Hala Ayala leads with 39%, compared with 31% for Republican nominee Winsome Sears. Incumbent Attorney General Mark Herring, a Democrat running for his third term, holds the largest lead among the statewide candidates, with 41%, compared with 31% for Republican candidate Del. Jason Miyares.

“As of this survey, there have been no debates between the candidates for governor or lieutenant governor. The gubernatorial candidates are in a virtual dead heat,” former Gov. L. Douglas Wilder said in a statement. “That could change once positions are taken on the issues. The lieutenant governor’s race showing the largest difference could also be affected. The attorney general race has 19% of the voters unwilling to vote for either candidate. Added to the 10% undecided, [that] leaves one-third of the voters who could tighten that contest. How the pandemic affects turnout and enthusiasm energizes voters should be of utmost concern.”

With all 100 state delegate seats up in the air this fall, poll respondents were split when asked which party they would rather see in control of the General Assembly. Democrats received 44% to maintain control, while 40% of those surveyed said they’d rather see Republicans regain power of the state legislature.

The regional breakdown held no big surprises, with McAuliffe holding a large lead in Northern Virginia (51% to Youngkin’s 24%) and Youngkin dominating in the northwestern and Southwest regions of the state with 52% to McAuliffe’s 32%. In Southern and Central Virginia, including the Richmond and Petersburg areas, Youngkin has a slight lead of 34% to McAuliffe’s 32% share, although 33% of voters polled in those regions said they are undecided. In the Hampton Roads region, 42% of voters said they support McAuliffe, and 37% are for Youngkin.

Gov. Ralph Northam, entering the final months of his four-year term, received strong approval numbers for his handling of COVID-19, with 57% of those polled saying he did a good job, although only 47% said he handled health care and racial inequities well.

So far, the two gubernatorial candidates have accepted only two debate invites on the same stage, although Youngkin turned down three opportunities that McAuliffe agreed to, and McAuliffe rejected an invite at Liberty University that Youngkin accepted. The two scheduled debates are set for Sept. 16 at the Appalachian State School of Law and Sep.t 28 for the NOVA Chamber of Commerce/NBC4 debate in Northern Virginia.

Va. Democratic primary concludes Tuesday

Tuesday is the final day for Virginians to vote in the Democratic primary races for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general. Based on a recent poll by Roanoke College, two familiar faces — former Gov. Terry McAuliffe and Attorney Gen. Mark Herring — are likely to win handily, but the lieutenant governor nomination is still up for grabs.

Early voting for the primary started in late April, but according to state elections officials, turnout has been relatively low. They expect larger crowds on Tuesday than last year’s in-person elections turnout during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Since McAuliffe announced his bid for a second gubernatorial term, he has raised more money than his competitors and held significant leads in polls this spring. In the June 4 Roanoke College survey of likely primary voters, McAuliffe had 49% support, outpacing former Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy, who was in second with 11% and state Sen. Jennifer McClellan with 9%, followed by Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax with 5% and Del. Lee Carter at 1%.

Herring, who is running for his third term as the state’s top prosecutor, also had 49% support in the Roanoke College poll, followed by challenger Del. Jay Jones, with 20% of polled voters’ support.

“To the surprise of few, McAuliffe and Herring appear headed for victory on Tuesday,” Harry Wilson, senior political analyst of the Roanoke College Poll, said in a statement. “The race for lieutenant governor is there for the taking, with a large percentage of the electorate undecided on their decision. It is also clear that the Democratic primary electorate in Virginia is well-educated, upper-income and very liberal, but McAuliffe, arguably not the most far-left candidate, appears set to win the election.”

As for the lieutenant governor seat, Del. Hala Ayala, who has received Gov. Ralph Northam’s endorsement, led the poll with 16%, followed by Del. Sam Rasoul’s 11% support, with five more candidates trailing. However, a whopping 45% of people polled were still undecided on this race in late May.

Ayala, who pledged not to take campaign funding from Dominion Energy Inc. and then accepted $100,000 from the powerful Fortune 500 utility, has been subject to criticism from progressives in recent days, including Clean Virginia PAC runner Michael Bills, who funds candidates who agree not to take money from Dominion.

The Democratic nominees will face Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin, lieutenant governor nominee Winsome Sears and attorney general nominee Del. Jason Miyares.

In some localities, Virginians also will have the opportunity to choose Democratic and Republican nominees for delegate seats Tuesday (although they must vote in only one party’s primary). One hotly contested seat is in Prince William County, where state Del. Elizabeth Guzman dropped out of the lieutenant governor race in April to defend her seat against three other Democrats.

In Richmond’s 68th District, incumbent Del. Dawn Adams is being challenged by Richmond attorney Kyle R. Elliott on the Democratic side. On the Republican side, attorney Mark Earley Jr. is running against far-right candidate Mike Dickinson, although both have received negative press in recent weeks — Earley for a campaign finance disclosure complaint by Dickinson, whose recent criminal misdemeanor convictions were brought to light last week.

For more information on the primaries and what to expect on your ballot, visit the Virginia Department of Elections.