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High stakes

The 2024 presidential race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump carries hefty consequences for Virginia’s economy that will be even more pronounced than in previous elections.

Presidents are limited by the constraints of Congress — particularly if either chamber is held by the opposing party — and the clunkiness of the vast federal bureaucracy. Yet Harris and Trump’s sharply contrasting views could reshape everything from the size of Northern Virginia’s federal workforce and the pace of carbon-free energy transition to a military realignment that could dramatically affect Hampton Roads.

“Given the candidates’ proposals, I think we could be looking at one of the most consequential elections for the Virginia economy in recent decades,” says Robert McNab, director of Old Dominion University’s Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. “The question is, how much of each candidate’s proposals are actually passable through Congress, and how much could be done through executive action?”

As of early September, a CNN poll of six battleground states showed a tight field, with Harris ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump ahead in Arizona, and an even split in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

In Virginia, a Roanoke College poll in August showed Harris leading Trump 45% to 42%, a lead within the margin of error. The commonwealth isn’t exactly a battleground state like Pennsylvania or Michigan, and Republicans haven’t carried the state in a presidential election since 2004. In September, Axios reported that the Trump campaign appears to be scaling back efforts in Virginia while putting more money and work into Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

No matter which way Virginians vote, experts say, the next presidential administration could have big impacts for federal workers, government contractors, maritime businesses, agricultural enterprises and other industries in the commonwealth.

Federal workforce impact

Perhaps the biggest implication of the presidential race in Virginia involves its more than 140,000 federal workers and their families — the second highest number in the nation, just behind California’s 142,000 federal workers.

If Trump is elected in November, his Agenda47 plan includes several proposals that would dismantle the federal government’s presence in Washington, D.C. Those include shifting numerous agencies and departments to other parts of the country and removing civil service protections for wide swathes of employees to allow their replacement by administration loyalists.

“You’re talking about the potential relocation of tens of thousands of federal employees who work in Washington, D.C., and surrounding areas,” McNab says. “That would be a significant blow to Northern Virginia and would potentially shave tenths of a percentage point off growth for Virginia’s gross domestic product and would also impact income taxes and sales taxes in the commonwealth. Whether it would happen and the scope of how it would happen remains to be determined, but it is certainly within the purview of executive action that could be done.”

Vice President of the United States Kamala Harris appears on stage at a Harris for President campaign rally in Savannah, Georgia, on Aug. 29. Photo by Kyle Mazza/NurPhoto via Associated Press

Some of that impact might be buffered by the pandemic-era shift to remote work, which already has led some federal employees to relocate from pricey Northern Virginia. Yet Virginia’s economy relies heavily on the federal government. Six of the top 15 congressional districts with the highest concentrations of federal workers in the U.S. are located in Virginia. Many of those are well-paid jobs, offering median pay about twice as high as that of the private sector.

“It’s not just the quantity but the quality of those jobs and how much they support the larger economy,” says Hamilton Lombard, demographer at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.

In response to questions about federal workers and defense spending, Jeff Ryer, a Trump campaign spokesperson in Virginia, sent the following statement: “President Trump’s commitment to modernizing and rebuilding our military, as well as his promise to build a missile defense shield, will directly benefit Virginia’s economy. He has made a very specific pledge, highlighted in the 2024 Republican platform, to restore the safety and beauty of our nation’s capital, a change that will benefit the entire region. Five of the 10 wealthiest localities in the United States are in the Washington metropolitan region, which won’t change.”

But U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine, a Democrat running for his third term this year, tweeted in July that Trump’s plan to move 100,000 federal jobs outside of the D.C. region “is unacceptable and would punish the many public servants in our commonwealth who keep basic services running. We can’t afford a second Trump presidency.”

It’s not as easy to predict how a second Trump administration would impact the plethora of federal contracting companies that are a significant part of Northern Virginia’s economy — whether a decentralized federal government would mean more outsourcing of work to contractors or lead to staffing cuts among federal contractors isn’t known.

Hampton Roads, home to Naval Station Norfolk, the world’s largest naval base, also has an economy that relies heavily on military spending, and the presidential election presents divergent futures for that region. Both Harris and Trump back more funding for the military but have different global priorities.

Harris represents a continuation of Biden’s foreign policy, which includes taking a leading role in the NATO alliance as a counter to Russia in Europe. Like Biden, Harris wants to continue providing funding for Ukraine to resist the Russian invasion that began in 2022. But Trump, who has enjoyed a warmer relationship with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, claimed in 2023 that he could solve the crisis “in 24 hours.” Both Harris and Trump have expressed wariness of China, but Trump has taken a more hawkish stance, prompting concerns about military escalation.

Such a shift in focus from Europe to China could potentially affect military operations and defense contractors based in Virginia. The implications could be enormous, but geopolitical shifts inevitably take time to play out and are contingent on factors far beyond the reach of a lone president.

Also, as most political observers know, campaign promises are subject to change, especially when the president’s party doesn’t control Congress. On top of that, the 2024 presidential election has two unusual factors: a new candidate, Harris, who hasn’t rolled out all of her policies or specified how they differ from President Biden’s; and Trump, whose policies and views historically have fluctuated somewhat with polls and popular opinion.

Regarding the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 policy blueprint — a 900-page document that was compiled by dozens of powerful Republican thought leaders, including at least 140 former Trump administration officials — it’s difficult to tell how much of it would be enacted in a second Trump term.

Trump himself has made repeated attempts to distance himself from the document, calling some of its restrictions “dismal,” but his campaign’s Agenda47 platform has some similarities to Project 2025, which calls for eliminating up to 1 million federal jobs, slashing funding for the Environmental Protection Agency and rolling back green energy legislation supported by the Biden White House. Also, Project 2025 and Agenda47 both advocate restricting family-based immigration, as well as severely limiting work visas — which would have a major impact on some Virginia industries.

Harris, as vice president, focused on creating a diplomatic solution to address the root causes of migration from Central American countries, including high rates of violent crimes in those nations. She also advocated for a bill that would have lifted visa backlogs for family- and work-based green cards, but it stalled in Congress.

“I guess one of the problems with the current presidential election is there’s a lot of things being tossed out there,” McNab says. “Engaging which things would come to fruition is difficult, because what is rhetoric and what is an actual policy stance seems to be vague for both candidates.”

Energy priorities

The biggest priority for the Virginia Chamber of Commerce and its roughly 31,000 member businesses is to boost the national gross domestic product to at least 3% annual growth, says chamber President and CEO Barry DuVal. In Virginia, that means investing in workforce training, child care and affordable housing.

DuVal calls for an increase in infrastructure investment, particularly around Virginia ports. That includes a second proposed inland port in Southwest Virginia supported by state legislators in the region, and the rail infrastructure needed to link it to the coast.

DuVal also cites energy as a major issue for businesses, particularly the need to bolster the power grid for growing demand from data centers and the cloud-based economy.

“We are very hopeful that candidates will take an all-of-the-above approach [to energy generation] that would include wind and solar and renewables but also natural gas and nuclear,” DuVal says, echoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s stance on energy.

Under Biden, Congress passed two major bills investing in infrastructure and clean energy. That legislation included sizable tax credits for wind, solar, battery storage and the shift to electric vehicles. Electric vehicle and battery companies have started construction on factories across the Southeast, mostly in other states.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin shakes hands with Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump during a June 28 campaign rally in Chesapeake. Photo by Associated Press/Steve Helber

The Biden White House also approved auctions of leases for offshore wind plots in the Atlantic Ocean; currently, Dominion Energy leases the acreage for the Central Virginia Offshore Wind project under construction off Virginia Beach and also is securing offshore wind farm leases adjacent to that project and in North Carolina.

Harris, if elected, would presumably continue rolling out the investments laid out in the federal infrastructure packages, but Trump has promised he’d claw back the funding and roll back clean energy laws. He has specifically called out electric vehicles, which he views as an economic threat to American vehicle makers, and offshore wind farms, which he pledged to stop on “day one” of his presidency.

In his July speech at Radford University, Trump’s running mate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance, referred to Harris’ support for the “green new scam destroying energy jobs in Virginia and Pennsylvania, and driving up the cost of goods.”

Vance offered a different solution: oil and gas. “It’s simple: Drill, baby, drill,” he said on stage. “It’s not that complicated. We’ve got it right here. Our own workers want to get it out of the ground. Why don’t we just let them? It’ll make our country stronger.”

As of early September, Harris had not clarified her climate and energy stances, but the Democratic platform advocates for continued investment in clean energy, including solar and offshore wind, and strengthening the electrical grid. The Biden administration also issued a rule that would require 56% of all vehicle sales to be electric cars by 2032, up from less than 10% as of 2023.

Immigration questions

Looking broadly, “across the board, Americans care deeply about economic policies, about inflation and the cost of goods, followed by immigration and health care,” says Amanda Wintersieck, associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University and director of its Institute for Democracy, Pluralism, and Community Empowerment. “We’re seeing both candidates finally talk in a little bit better detail about the issue of inflation and economic issues.”

But immigration is still a flashpoint in the presidential race, with most of the rhetoric focused on the United States’ southern border. Trump regularly attacks Harris’s role in the Biden administration’s border enforcement, while Harris accuses Trump of using his influence to torpedo a bipartisan reform bill negotiated by U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, the Republican former Senate majority leader. According to the vice president, Trump got wind of the bill and convinced House Republicans to vote it down because he feared it could hurt his campaign, and Harris vowed to sign the bill if it comes to her desk as president.

Despite the political heat surrounding immigration, it’s more of a workaday issue for businesses in Virginia, from the tech industry to hospitality to agriculture, that need real immigration reform to help them address their workforce demands, DuVal says.

“From an economic perspective, America has to grow its workforce,” DuVal says. “We want workers to be legally imported workers. We don’t have a big enough funnel. Immigration reform is a top priority for us. We’re calling on our federal representatives to find bipartisan support for improving the immigration process.”

That call was echoed by Hobey Bauhan, president of the Virginia Poultry Federation. The state’s poultry farms and facilities in the Shenandoah Valley and Eastern Shore rely heavily on immigrant workers.

“Our nation needs legal immigration for healthy economic growth,” Bauhan says. “We also need secure borders. Unfortunately, the political climate in recent decades seems to preclude bipartisan compromises that would achieve both objectives.”

In particular, the poultry industry would like to see the establishment of a guest worker program geared toward nonseasonal employment.

“That would allow guest workers to stay in the United States for longer periods of time to address nonseasonal agricultural needs, such as poultry, which is year-round,” Bauhan says. But, he notes, “it tends to be polarizing and difficult to get enough people on the same page and get it across the finish line.”

Trade and the port

Both Harris and Trump contend they’d do a better job than their opponent in leading the U.S. economy to new heights, and a stronger economy would lift individual industries.

That’s the case at the Port of Virginia.

“More than anything, for us, what affects trade is the economy,” says Joe Harris, the port’s spokesperson. “Right now, we have a very strong dollar. We’re able to buy more abroad. The value of our goods going overseas is greater, which makes it harder for people to buy our exports. Our collective ability to purchase is great.”

The American Association of Port Authorities has pushed back on a new 25% tariff on cranes imported from China, an order from the Biden White House that was set to go into effect Aug. 1 with other tariff increases on Chinese-made electric cars, semiconductors and solar cells. However, the increases have been delayed to an uncertain future date, due to industry pushback.

According to a news release, the AAPA is concerned the tariff could cause “grave harm to port efficiency and capacity, strained supply chains, increased consumer prices and a weaker U.S. economy.” At the Port of Virginia, all 27 cranes are manufactured by Chinese state-owned ZPMC, and eight more cranes are on order from the company, set to arrive in December and next year.

Both Harris and Trump have expressed support for tariffs to some degree. A Harris spokesperson said in a statement to The New York Times that Harris would “employ targeted and strategic tariffs to support American workers, strengthen our economy, and hold our adversaries accountable.” The Biden administration kept some of Trump’s tariffs on China and even proposed an increase.

Trump, however, has proposed much higher tariffs on most imports, up to 60% on Chinese products — a position Harris has called a “Trump tax” that would cost middle-class families almost $4,000 a year. Economists say that may be a bit overblown, suggesting the true cost to families may rise to $2,600 a year, according to a USA Today article.

“President Trump’s commitment to make America the dominant energy producer in the world, strengthen and modernize our military, and roll back the Biden-Harris administration’s oppressive regulatory burden on our businesses and family farms will supercharge Virginia’s economy,” his Virginia spokesperson said in an email to Virginia Business.

Port spokesperson Harris was careful to distance the port from partisan politics.

“We try to stay outside the political fray,” he says. “We want to live and do business with whoever is in control of the White House and the governor’s office. More than anything outside of politics, the greatest influence is the economy.”

He does, however, note that potential issues also could arise “if someone in the White House wants to enact tariffs, or all of a sudden we find ourselves in a trade war.”

RELATED STORY: Spotlight on 2024 Senate, House races

Stoney declares candidacy for Va. governor

Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney declared his candidacy for governor Monday, setting up an early contest with U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who announced her own run for the Democratic nomination last month. The general election will take place in November 2025.

If elected, he would be Virginia’s second Black governor, more than 30 years after the historic election of Gov. L. Douglas Wilder.

Stoney, who was elected to his first term as mayor in 2016 and re-elected in 2020, filed his paperwork last week for the Democratic gubernatorial race and had spoken about his plans to run earlier in November. In his announcement released Monday morning, Stoney tells his life story. Raised in York County by his father and grandmother in a “working poor family,” Stoney says he was the first member of his family to graduate from high school and then graduated from James Madison University, where he received a degree in public administration and political science.

He served as Virginia’s first Black secretary of the commonwealth under Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who prioritized restoring voting rights to Virginians convicted of felonies. Stoney said in his announcement that he helped restore the right to vote to nearly 200,000 people during his time in McAuliffe’s administration, which ended in 2018. Stoney resigned as secretary after launching his campaign to become Richmond’s mayor in 2016, and became the city’s youngest elected mayor at age 35.

Stoney’s tenure as mayor has been mixed, as major economic development projects he supported failed — the $1.5 billion Navy Hill development, proposed to replace the now-shuttered Richmond Coliseum, was spiked by Richmond City Council in early 2020 after strong community opposition, and a $562 million casino referendum was defeated a second time by Richmond voters last month.

Despite the faltering of those projects, Stoney’s administration has moved forward with the Diamond District, a $2.44 billion project to replace the city’s baseball stadium, home to the Double-A Richmond Flying Squirrels team, as well as add two hotels, 3,000 residential units, 935,000 square feet of office space, and 195,000 square feet of retail and community space. The new stadium is expected to open in spring 2026, a year after a deadline set by Major League Baseball for all Minor League facilities to meet new standards.

Meanwhile, the city’s Economic Development Authority and the Greater Richmond Convention Center Authority have selected four development teams that will compete to redesign the 9.4-acre downtown site that includes the Coliseum, although the city declared a concert venue will not be built there.

In 2020, Stoney received praise from some quarters for removing Richmond’s Confederate statues on Monument Avenue, following large racial justice protests sparked by the police killing of George Floyd in May 2020 in Minneapolis. That summer, Richmond was the site of daily protests, including one in which police tear-gassed a crowd of protesters at the former Robert E. Lee monument.

Stoney, who spoke against police brutality in the days following Floyd’s murder while also standing with Richmond’s police, faced local anger after the tear-gassing incident, which ultimately ended in a civil rights lawsuit against city police. In 2022, the suit was settled for an undisclosed amount.

The mayor’s announcement for governor highlights the building of new city schools, creating a budget surplus and reducing the poverty rate by 22% during his tenure. In March, Richmond’s Office of Community Wealth Building reported that the overall poverty rate in the city was 19.8%, and according to the U.S. Census’ American Community Survey, about 21% of children in Richmond and 21.4% of Latinos were living below the poverty line in 2021, about half the number recorded in 2012.

In addition to serving as mayor and secretary of the commonwealth, Stoney was president of the Democratic Mayors Alliance and served as executive director of the Democratic Party of Virginia. In 2022, he married Brandy Washington, a manager of Altria Group, and in Monday’s announcement, Stoney says they are expecting their first child, a girl, this spring.

Although Spanberger and Stoney are the only two gubernatorial candidates who have officially launched campaigns for 2025, on the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Attorney Gen. Jason Miyares are likely candidates. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is barred from seeking consecutive terms under Virginia law. Spanberger has received significant endorsements since declaring, including from former Gov. Ralph Northam and former U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello, a member of the state’s more progressive Democratic wing.

Democrats sweep Va. General Assembly

Updated Nov. 8

Democrats regained control of the Virginia Senate and the House of Delegates in Tuesday’s elections, likely putting a damper on Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s legislative agenda and potential 2024 presidential aspirations. As of 11:45 p.m. Tuesday, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, Democrats won 21 out of 40 seats in the state Senate and 51 seats in the House, which has been held by Republicans for the past two years.

This electoral outcome will likely prevent Youngkin from passing most of his agenda, including placing a 15-week limit on abortions, which was a significant issue for many voters, particularly Democrats and women. It may also at least temporarily lessen his national standing, as he failed to deliver a red wave as he did during his 2021 election, which saw Republicans elected to the state’s top three offices and the GOP take control of the House.

The election also sets up Virginia House Minority Leader Don Scott Jr. of Portsmouth to become the first Black speaker of the House in the Virginia legislature’s 400-plus-year history, replacing GOP Speaker Todd Gilbert, who has presided over the House of Delegates since January 2022.

Virginia’s blue wave followed a national trend, as Ohio voters approved ballot measures guaranteeing abortion access and legalizing recreational marijuana use. Meanwhile, in Kentucky, voters granted a second term to Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, who had campaigned on making Kentucky’s abortion laws less restrictive.

Republicans won 19 Virginia State Senate seats. The Associated Press called a Williamsburg-area nailbiter at 2:15 p.m. Wednesday in favor of GOP challenger Danny Diggs, who defeated Democratic incumbent Monty Mason. The final count saw Diggs with 32,764 votes, or 50.69% of the total, and Mason with 31,742 votes.

In the House, Republicans held 48 seats as of 2:45 p.m. Wednesday, with one race not yet called. Republican Del. Kim Taylor’s race against Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams in Petersburg and Dinwiddie County was too close to call, with Taylor ahead with 50.23% of the vote and less than a 200-vote margin over Adams. Taylor declared victory late Tuesday, but Adams had not conceded as of Wednesday afternoon.

Two other close House races went in Republicans’ favor: District 57’s contest in Henrico County between Democrat Susanna Gibson and Republican David Owen, a race that received national press following revelations that Gibson had performed sex acts with her husband on a live streaming pornography website while soliciting tips from viewers. Owen won with 51.16% of the vote, gaining 17,878 votes to Gibson’s 16,912. In James City County and Williamsburg, Republican Del. Amanda Batten won a third term with 51.93% of the vote over Democrat Jessica Anderson.

Voters went to the polls Tuesday to fill all 140 General Assembly seats. Many candidates were new faces or, at least, less experienced than those who previously filled the legislature, thanks to the December 2021 redistricting process, which redrew political districts without prioritizing the residential addresses of incumbents. That led to an unprecedented wave of retirements and some primary defeats of longtime legislators.

Blue wave

In several of the most hotly contested races, Democrats came up victorious Tuesday night.

In Loudoun and Fauquier counties, Democrat Russet Perry, a former CIA officer and prosecutor, won Senate District 31 with 52.5% of the vote as of 10:28 p.m. Tuesday, according to unofficial results from the Virginia Department of Elections. She defeated Republican Juan Pablo Segura, a health care tech entrepreneur who founded a local doughnut chain. Segura received 40,835 votes compared to Perry’s 45,350 votes, and the Associated Press estimated 92% of votes had been counted by 10:25 p.m., when it called the race.

Segura conceded about an hour later. “We were outspent but not outworked,” he said in a statement. “We knocked on more than 100,000 doors and talked to many, many thousands of voters about their hopes, dreams and concerns. … I also want to congratulate Russet Perry on a hard-fought race, and I wish her the best of luck in representing this special place. Lessons are learned in losses, but I heard very clearly the deep desire from so many in this district for better representation from their government.”

Both were first-time candidates, and Perry outpaced all other state legislature candidates in fundraising more than $6 million by Oct. 31, while Segura raised a bit more than $5 million.

Del. Danica Roem, another Democratic delegate seeking a Senate seat, beat Republican candidate Bill Woolf for the 30th District seat in Manassas and part of Prince William County with 51.51% of the vote. Roem, who became the nation’s first openly transgender state lawmaker upon her 2017 election to the House of Delegates, won 29,713 votes to Woolf’s 27,794 as of 10:13 p.m., according to unofficial results from the Virginia Department of Elections. A former journalist, Roem currently represents House District 13, which includes Manassas Park and part of Prince William County. Woolf was formerly a detective with the Fairfax County Police Department.

“I’m grateful the people of Virginia’s 30th Senate District elected me to continue representing my lifelong home of western Prince William County and greater Manassas,” Roem said in a statement. “The voters have shown they want a leader who will prioritize fixing roads, feeding kids and protecting our land instead of stigmatizing trans kids or taking away your civil rights.”

In another key seat, Democratic Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg won Senate District 16 in western Henrico County with 52.69% of the vote as of 9:38 p.m. Tuesday, according to unofficial results from the Virginia Department of Elections. The Associated Press estimated more than 95% of votes had been counted by 9:33 p.m.

VanValkenburg received 27,469 votes to Republican Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant’s 24,544 as of 9:43 p.m. Although the incumbent, Dunnavant was redistricted into a slightly bluer district than her previous district, which had included part of Hanover County. The race was considered a key contest to watch this year and saw some of the largest fundraising among Virginia’s legislative races.

The Associated Press called House District 58 race in western Henrico County in favor of the Democratic two-term incumbent Del. Rodney Willett, a tech consultant and small business entrepreneur, who took 11,897 of votes, or 53.1%, over Republican challenger Riley Shaia, a physical therapist, who won 10,496 votes, or 46.9%. AP called the race with 95% of votes counted.

Off-off election year

Numerous incumbents retired or lost primaries after being drawn into the same districts as other incumbents. Particularly in the state Senate, longtime party leaders chose to bow out rather than face a primary battle, leaving younger and less moderate candidates running for office this fall.

Although 2023 was, at least in name, an off-off election year with no presidential or statewide races topping the ballots, legislative candidates in competitive districts saw a massive influx of money and heated rhetoric from both parties. High stakes, including Virginia’s status as the only Southern state without significant abortion restrictions, were riding on whether either party can take control of the commonwealth’s legislature, which is currently split, with Republicans running the House of Delegates and Democrats controlling the state Senate.

Although his name wasn’t on ballots, Youngkin’s presidential hopes also rested on Tuesday’s results, drawing national attention. If Republicans had won back control of the General Assembly, Youngkin could have mounted a plausible last-minute campaign for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, politicos forecast. But with Democrats regaining power of just one of the legislative bodies, Youngkin will be unlikely to pass much of his stated agenda through the General Assembly, including a ban on abortions after 15 weeks and tax cuts for corporations, with the blue wave likely putting any presidential ambitions he has on hold, at least for 2024.

In a press conference Wednesday, Youngkin called the outcome “a razor-thin set of decisions” made by voters and noted the commonwealth’s recent history of changes in party control, downplaying Republicans’ disappointing results. “I think what that reflects is that we are a state that is very comfortable working together, working across party lines to get things done.”

In response to a reporter’s question about his presidential ambitions, Youngkin was predictably coy. “I have answered this question the same way for a long time. I am focused on Virginia. I have been in Virginia. My name is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. I have not been in Iowa. I am not in South Carolina. I am in Virginia, and I look forward to staying focused on Virginia, just like I have been.”

With issues such as parental influence in schools, reproductive rights, cannabis retail sales and corporate tax cuts in the balance, Democratic- and Republican-affiliated PACs sank millions into legislative campaigns this year. According to an Associated Press story, money raised by Virginia State Senate and House of Delegates candidates this year eclipsed totals from 2019. As of early November, Senate candidates had raised $80.8 million, compared to $53.6 million at the same point in 2019, and House candidates raised $77.5 million, compared to $67.5 million in 2019.

Both Republicans and Democrats emphasized the historic nature of the election, which could determine the state’s abortion, clean energy, education and tax policies for decades to come — although the parties differ widely on their overall goals.

Youngkin and state Republicans advocated to enact limits on abortions after 15 weeks, a rollback of Virginia’s current laws allowing abortions up to 26 weeks, although, in the third trimester, three doctors must sign off on the procedure as medically necessary. Democrats, meanwhile, have argued that the 15-week limit, posed as a reasonable compromise by Republicans, would be the first of many restrictions on abortion following the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade last year.

Parents’ involvement in their children’s K-12 education remained a hot topic, carrying on from Youngkin’s winning gambit in 2021’s gubernatorial race, when he focused attention on a Loudoun County sexual assault case, in which a 14-year-old male student sexually assaulted a female student in a school restroom and then was allowed to transfer to another high school, where he abducted and assaulted another student. The teen was later convicted in juvenile court, and in September, Youngkin pardoned one of the victims’ fathers, who had been arrested and charged with obstruction of justice and disorderly conduct at a county school board meeting.

Republican state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant greets voters at a Henrico County polling place on Nov. 7, 2023. Photo by Katherine Schulte

Last week, the governor issued an executive order mandating that school districts inform parents within 24 hours of any overdoses involving their schools, after Loudoun County Public Schools waited more than 20 days to report that nine high school students had overdosed on pills suspected of containing fentanyl. Youngkin also has ordered schools to inform parents if their children use a different gender identity at school than is their assigned sex. He has also required that students participate in sports and use bathrooms based on their assigned sex, a mandate some school systems have refused to enforce — particularly in Northern Virginia.

A Washington Post-George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government poll, conducted Oct. 11-16, showed a divided commonwealth going into the elections, with 47% of registered voters saying they would vote for a generic Democrat for delegate, and 43% for a Republican. Meanwhile, 70% of voters said education was the most important issue for them this year, followed by the economy at 68% and abortion rights at 60%.

According to VPAP, 789,848 people voted early across the state as of Monday, with Democratic voters making up about 60% of early voters, compared with about 40% for Republicans.

Virginia Department of Elections Commissioner Susan Beals said Tuesday afternoon that some localities’ ballots were longer than usual, with county supervisors, sheriffs and other local offices included, as well as state legislators. There was an issue with poll books reported at some Chesterfield County locations — but those were resolved by early afternoon, Beals said. At Williamsburg’s Matoaca precinct, where locally registered William & Mary students can vote, the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported “long lines all day.”

In Loudoun County, during Tuesday’s lunch hour at the town’s Ida Lee Park Recreation Center, West Leesburg voters turned out in a steady stream, which precinct chief Kevin Smith described as “one in, one out.” Morning was busiest, and 536 voters, out of a district of about 3,100, had cast their ballots by a little after 12:30 p.m., Smith said. Voters reported no issues or problems with machines, and the atmosphere outside, where the Loudoun County Republican Party had set up a tent to shade volunteers from the sun, was congenial as volunteers from either side of the aisle offered up sample ballots to would-be voters and shared occasional, friendly conversation across the sidewalk from folding chairs.

Steven Ritz, a retired Navy lieutenant commander voting at the recreation center, said he’s ordinarily a Republican but felt the party has strayed from the one he had known in the past, which he deemed “fiscally conservative, not rabid.” While he likened both parties to “monkeys flinging feces at each other,” he voted for Russet Perry, the Democrat who won the 31st District Senate seat. Perry, a former CIA officer who has also served as a county prosecutor, defeated Leesburg health-tech entrepreneur and District Donut co-founder Juan Pablo Segura in a race that focused largely on abortion and crime. Perry cast Segura in television ads as a “MAGA Republican” who wants to ban abortions; Segura volleyed back, casting his opponent as soft on crime and backed by “defund the police” groups.

Ritz voted with his gut. “Juan hasn’t been here in Leesburg that long. It looked to me opportunistic,” he said of Segura’s candidacy.

Other voters said they turned out particularly because of the abortion question. Shaun Meredith and his daughter, Rachel Meredith, said they voted for Perry. “Every woman should have a choice for her own body, to make that decision,” Rachel Meredith said.

In Virginia Senate District 16 in western Henrico County, voter turnout was steady overall with slight fluctuations throughout the morning in at least two precincts.

At about 12:50 p.m., the Echo Lake Elementary School polling location in the Coalpit precinct in Glen Allen had received 791 votes. “It’s been steady since we opened. There’s some periods where … we had a good little crowd for a while,” said Maurice Talley, a volunteer poll worker at the elementary school.

Incumbent Republican state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant stopped at the school to greet voters as she campaigned at multiple polling locations during her ultimately unsuccessful battle against her Democratic challenger, state Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg. Voters who recognized Dunnavant or her name after an introduction were enthusiastic, she said. “They’re excited to be turned out. They say, ‘You’ve got this. This is great,’” she said.

Angie Madison, a Glen Allen Pilates instructor who said she isn’t loyal to one party and goes back and forth depending on the issues, said she voted for Democratic candidates Tuesday. “I’m trying to do my part by voting Democratic and trying to vote for abortion rights and all that stuff,” she said. “It feels like we’re going back in time versus forward in time, so I want to go forward in time.”

High stakes, high rollers

According to VPAP, the following state Senate candidates raised the most money, as of Oct. 31:

Democrat Russet Perry — $6,071,414
Republican Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant — $5,104,711
Democrat Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg — $5,069,960
Democrat Sen. Monty Mason — $5,043,533
Republican Juan Pablo Segura — $5,003,665

Among delegate candidates, Democrats dominated fundraising:

Democrat Joshua Cole — $3,816,605
Democrat Michael Feggans — $3,255,257
Democrat Josh Thomas — $3,198,811
Republican Del. Karen Greenhalgh — $2,778,182
Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams — $2,706,971

Not surprisingly, familiar names were among the biggest donors in the elections. The Virginia Senate Democratic Caucus donated $7.5 million for Democratic candidates, while Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC doled out $4.8 million to GOP candidates. Dominion Energy and the Clean Virginia Fund — a fund created by Charlottesville millionaire Michael Bills to dilute the political influence of Dominion — gave just over $4 million each to Senate candidates this year.

In the House races, the House Democratic Caucus donated $10.8 million, while the Republican Commonwealth Leadership PAC gave $4.1 million. Dominion and the Clean Virginia Fund made donations of $3.8 million and $3.6 million, respectively.

For those watching broadcast television in the days before the elections, negative ads ran thick and fast in competitive districts, and Youngkin blazed a trail across the state to get out Republican voters to the polls for early voting in October and early November. Democrats, meanwhile, called on Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and gun-control advocate David Hogg to get out the vote.

In Richmond’s casino battle redux, Churchill Downs and Urban One, corporate backers of the proposed $562 million Richmond Grand Resort & Casino, sank more than $10 million into their campaign to pass the city’s second casino referendum, almost four times the amount spent in 2021 and more than for any individual candidate running this year. Ultimately, the second referendum failed by a 58% to 42% margin.

Battlefield Virginia

It’s a nerve-wracking time this fall for a small group of campaign managers, with the balance of power in the General Assembly coming down to a handful of close political races.

In House District 97, freshman Republican Del. Karen Greenhalgh is defending her Virginia Beach-centered seat against Michael Feggans, a Democrat who grew up in the city and served in the Air Force.

It’s a key, front-line race in the high-stakes battle for control of Virginia’s state legislature, with all 140 seats in the Senate and House of Delegates up for election this fall. (Early voting began Sept. 22 for the Nov. 7 general election.) Following extensive redistricting and an exodus of retiring legislators, politicos say it’s a tough call how the elections will shake out, but the outcome could determine the Assembly’s balance of political power for years to come. Races for both chambers will be closely fought, with the future of abortion access, tax laws, budget priorities and labor issues all in question.

According to the Virginia Public Access Project, District 97 is one of the state’s most competitive races this cycle. The district went 2.2 points for Republicans in 2021 and 5.2 points for Democrats in 2022. As of the Aug. 31 campaign finance reporting deadline, Feggans has raised $890,000 and Greenhalgh $852,955.

Greenhalgh founded Heritage Woodworks, a cabinet-manufacturing company she later sold, and Cyber Tygr, a business that addresses cybersecurity issues in health care. She also works as a manager for local crisis pregnancy centers, clinics that provide care — but not abortion services — to pregnant women. Four of 17 bills on which Greenhalgh was chief sponsor or chief co-sponsor passed last session. She was chief sponsor of legislation that would have expanded the parameters of written consent by people seeking abortions; the bill was killed in committee by the Democratic-held Virginia State Senate.

She also supports a 15-week ban on abortions favored by Gov. Glenn Youngkin and other Republicans, while Feggans has voiced his support for current state law, which allows abortions through the second trimester and requires approval from three doctors before a third-trimester procedure.

The candidates themselves say they’re running for office for less-complicated reasons.

“I have people in my district who are just like me, who live paycheck to paycheck,” Greenhalgh says. “As far as it being a swing district, no matter which party you tend to vote for, we want the same things: We want safe neighborhoods. We want good schools for our kids. We want good jobs to support families. Those are the dreams that everyone in my district has for their families and their children. I look for ways to make sure we don’t lose those opportunities in Virginia.”

Meanwhile, Feggans, who worked in health services management and started a cybersecurity company, touts his Air Force service and local and political ties. He previously interned in U.S. Sen. Mark Warner’s Norfolk office and for the state secretary of technology and earned his master’s degree in cybersecurity from Norfolk State University.

“I took all the experiences invested in me for 20 years to give back to the community that nurtured me,” Feggans says. “We know we have a pathway to victory. Virginia Beach is a military town. Not only my service record in the military, but my service to the community reflects who Virginia Beach is. I’m a product of Virginia Beach Public Schools and a product of Virginia colleges. I know I have a lot to offer to the city that raised me.”

On the verge

However homespun the candidates sound, politicos acknowledge that Virginia’s blueish reputation and recent legislative gridlock could change radically next year if the GOP wins a few tight races. Should Republicans attain majorities in both chambers, they have a chance to reframe Virginia politics. Corporate tax cuts and restrictions on abortion would be almost certainties.

“Democrats have been on the surge, but there’s a real possibility Republicans hold the House and take the Senate,” says political analyst A.J. Nolte, an assistant professor at Regent University’s Robertson School of Government. “They might have a trifecta for the first time in the state in a long time. That’s potentially an earthquake. People have gotten used to the idea Virginia is a more blue state, but let’s not forget [that] Republicans held both chambers as recently as 2018. Unified Democratic control is more recent.”

After a Republican ticket led by Gov. Bob McDonnell swept the 2009 races, Democrats won every subsequent statewide office — including both U.S. senatorial seats, governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general — until the GOP slate led by Gov. Glenn Youngkin won in 2021.

For his part, Youngkin has been active in raising money for Republican candidates in the June primaries and November’s general elections. In a very real sense, his political reputation and potential presidential aspirations are also on the line this fall. (See related story.)

Republicans are being propelled by Youngkin, who endorsed 10 successful candidates in key Republican primaries, and his Spirit of Virginia political action committee, which raised $5.9 million as of June 30.

“The governor made it a priority to recruit and endorse candidates in those races to make sure we had the strongest possible candidates going into the election cycle,” says David Rexrode, an adviser to the governor and chairman of Youngkin’s PAC.

This election, Rexrode says, “The No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 issues are — order varies by district — jobs and economy, education and public safety. That’s what our candidates are talking about because that’s what our voters care about.”

‘Gutter politics’

Meanwhile, Democrats largely are training their attacks on former President Donald Trump’s continuing influence in the Republican Party, and the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling, which overturned the federal right to abortion, ceding authority to states.

“Frankly, the stakes couldn’t be higher for Virginians, especially Virginia women,” says Liam Watson, press secretary for the Democratic Party of Virginia. “We all know what’s at stake this year is abortion rights — not just for Virginians but across the South. Virginia is the last Southern state without a post-Dobbs abortion ban. The GOP in Virginia right now at all levels is pushing for a ban on abortion. We know what Republicans are about; it’s not a mystery what they’d do if we give them full control of our government here in Richmond.”

Speaking about abortion access, Democratic Virginia House Minority Leader Don Scott of Portsmouth says, “The only people trying to pretend it’s not on the ballot are MAGA Republicans.”

Nolte says the Democratic caucus has been slowly transforming for years, but with mass retirements and primaries, moderates have largely given way to younger, more progressive candidates. Meanwhile, he adds, Youngkin’s money and influence largely overcame national trends and defeated “MAGA, flame-throwing folks” in GOP primaries, such as Del. Marie March and Sen. Amanda Chase, who lost battles against more moderate Republican challengers.

Youngkin’s Virginia organization “is heavily focused on training, heavily focused on [building] disciplined, technically proficient campaigns,” Nolte says, but is “not as much focused on big-ticket messaging.”

In response to Youngkin’s PAC largesse, President Joe Biden in September directed the Democratic National Committee to add $1.2 million in contributions to Democrats running for Virginia legislative seats, bringing the DNC’s total to $1.5 million.

“When we had the majority, the biggest thing we did was make sure this economy works for everybody,” Scott says. “Virginia was named the No. 1 state for business in the country twice during that time. The governor now, who is supposed to be a business guy, hasn’t been able to accomplish that.”

Although many of the November candidates prefer to focus on local, less hot-button issues than abortion, it’s clear that the Virginia General Assembly’s more collegial, compromise-friendly tenor will change next year because of the number of retired legislators and lame-duck incumbents leaving office in January.

Lawmakers with a combined 649 years of legislative experience will not return to the General Assembly in 2024, according to former Republican Del. Chris Saxman, executive director of Virginia FREE, a nonpartisan, business-focused political organization.

The 2021 statewide redistricting placed a significant number of incumbents in the same district, leading to retirements and hard-bitten primaries. Many who made it through the June primaries now have a clear path to election in November due to the makeup of their districts, except in a handful of toss-up districts that will determine political control.

With both parties eager to motivate voters, competitive races are hinging largely on negative campaigning, says political analyst Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington and a longtime observer of the legislature.

“The key thing is getting your base out,” Farnsworth says. “The demonization of the other side is a tried-and-true strategy for getting your voters to actually turn out, and the way that’s done is to create sort of funhouse mirror images of the opposing party.”

One notable example is the battleground 57th District race for an open seat in Henrico and Goochland counties. In September, a Republican operative informed The Washington Post that Democratic candidate Susanna Gibson, a nurse practitioner, had performed sex acts with her attorney husband for tips on a streaming porn website, leading to a slew of spicy national headlines. The operative has denied any connection with Gibson’s GOP opponent, David Owen, former co-owner of Goochland-based Boone Homes. Gibson has framed the incident as “gutter politics” and an attempt to intimidate, silence and humiliate her. Her attorney has argued that the leaked content violates the state’s revenge porn laws, however Gibson knowingly appeared live on a porn website that didn’t require a password for access.

Democratic state Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg is running for state Senate in Henrico against an incumbent who he says is “drastically out of touch” with constituents on abortion access. Photo courtesy of Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg

Negative campaigning only exacerbates a concurrent shift that mirrors national politics — a growing number of elected officials are less likely to cross party lines in support of bipartisan, moderate policies.

“When elections are conducted in this fashion, you find very few moderates elected and find very little opportunity for compromise,” Farnsworth says, “because, after all, you basically spent the general election making the argument the other side is in thrall to the things your voters hate. Increasingly, Virginia is looking a lot like Capitol Hill when it comes to partisan gridlock and hot-button issues.”

The new lines could end up favoring Democrats because the new districts skew the balance of power to suburbs, whether in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads or the Richmond metro region, Farnsworth notes, so candidates on both sides are carefully tailoring their campaign messages to appeal to moderates.

Walking a fine line

Take Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, a two-term Republican incumbent from western Henrico County. An OB/GYN, she was the only Republican to join Democrats in defeating Greenhalgh’s abortion information bill.

She won an open seat in 2015, then eked out a narrow re-election victory amid the Democratic wave of 2019. She’s now running in Senate District 16, which went for Democrats by 6 percentage points in 2021 and 10 percentage points in 2022, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.

Positioning herself as a common-sense moderate, incumbent Republican state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant is running to keep her seat in a Henrico district she describes as “purple.” Photo courtesy Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant

Dunnavant, who pitches herself as a down-to-earth citizen legislator in pursuit of straightforward fixes to policy problems, is running against Democrat Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg, a Henrico County teacher who has served in the House since 2018. It’s a must-win for both parties as they seek control of the Democratic-held Senate.

“I am in one of those purple seats that is even more favorable for Democrats,” Dunnavant says, “and yet, I’ve won it before, and I’ll win it again because of the fact that I actually work hard on common-sense bills that make a difference in my constituents’ lives.”

Dunnavant has focused on bipartisan legislation she sponsored to standardize health care records and establish dual-enrollment credits among high schools, community colleges and public four-year universities. But she also generally backs Youngkin’s position to place restrictions on abortion after 15 weeks, with exceptions for rape, incest, life of the mother and severe birth defects, and to restrict the procedure altogether in the third trimester. VanValkenburg, who did not respond to interview requests, has said that Dunnavant’s position on abortion is “drastically out of touch.”

Through Aug. 31, Dunnavant raised $1.9 million, and VanValkenburg brought in $1.6 million.

On the Democratic side, Sen. Montgomery “Monty” Mason of Williamsburg has focused his campaign to retain the seat he’s held since 2017 on his business background, which includes his current job as a senior director for Visa and his previous stint as chairman of the Williamsburg Economic Development Authority board. Mason says he’s well-positioned to run in a seat that leaned 1.1 points toward Democrats in 2022, according to VPAP.

“I’m a good person to give a 50/50 district to,” Mason says. “I’m a moderate. I have a lot of veterans in my district. Of course, school safety and discussions about gun safety and how to protect children have been an enormous topic of conversation.”

Mason says a large contingent of military veterans in the district have expressed support for Republican-backed tax relief, while a significant number of voters are talking about safety and funding for schools.

As of Aug. 31, Mason raised $2 million, and his Republican challenger, Danny Diggs, raised $1.3 million.

Mason’s biggest funder so far this year is Dominion Energy, a polarizing campaign donor. Many Democrats have received money from the utility, but others have made a point of rejecting its donations. The latter have been supported by Clean Virginia, a PAC that supports candidates who spurn Dominion funding. In March, Clean Virginia said it expected to spend $2.5 million on Virginia elections this year.

Dominion has made significant contributions to Republicans and Democrats for years, but the Fortune 500 utility’s expansive influence has become a source of controversy, particularly among Democratic delegates in fierce primary battles. As of Aug. 31, Dominion had contributed $3.2 million to Democratic PACs and candidates in state races, and $2.6 million to Republicans, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.

With more legislators caught up in partisan or intraparty political battles than ever before, businesses and individuals who wish to stay in the good graces of whoever holds the power in Richmond face hard choices.

“In today’s Virginia politics, there will be a lot more lawmaking from a more decidedly liberal or decidedly conservative perspective,” Farnsworth says. “That means that elections have higher stakes in terms of the outcome, but they also are more risky for business. If you back the wrong party, that’s bad for you.”

RELATED STORY: Youngkin’s 2024 tightrope walk depends on Va. elections

‘A generational shift’

Updated June 29

Politicians like to suggest every new election is the most important of our lifetimes, but Virginia’s off-off-year state legislative elections in 2023 might actually live up to the billing for once.

In November, voters will elect representatives to all 140 seats in the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates, in the first campaign season since the state redrew districts through an unprecedented process outside lawmaker control. To compound matters, a startling number of legislators are retiring or competing against fellow incumbents in new “double-bunked” districts created by the December 2021 redistricting.

These factors contribute to a generational election that will determine Virginia’s legislative future for years to come.

“This upheaval has literally never happened in the history of Virginia,” says Greg Habeeb, a former state delegate and president of Gentry Locke Consulting, a Richmond lobbying, marketing and strategic communications firm. “We’ve never seen this raw number of retirements and departures coupled with the seniority of those people leaving.”

As an example, Habeeb points to the Senate Finance Committee — “the epicenter of the epicenter” of both power and the retirement wave. Committee chair Janet Howell of Reston is retiring after 31 years, along with fellow Democratic committee members John Edwards and Richard Saslaw, as well as Republicans Steve Newman, Tommy Norment and Jill Vogel.

Meanwhile, fellow Democratic committee members Sens. George Barker, Creigh Deeds, Louise Lucas and Dave Marsden all faced primaries. That left Democratic Sens. Adam Ebbin and Mamie Locke and Republican Sen. Frank Ruff as the only incumbent Senate Finance committee members guaranteed to run in November, although Deeds, Lucas and Marsden won their June 20 primaries.

Known for their moderate stances, Senate Majority Leader Richard Saslaw (left) and Senate Minority Leader Tommy Norment Jr. are both retiring this year. Photo by Alexa Welch Edlund/Richmond Times-Dispatch
via Associated Press

Many factors are converging into a perfect storm for remaking the legislature in 2023. For starters, Habeeb says, “it’s harder to do this job for a long time and have a family and private-sector job. Two, an inordinate number of senators had served for decades and naturally got to a point where they need to retire. Coupled with redistricting, that created this avalanche.”

A bipartisan commission created to redraw legislative districts ultimately deadlocked last year, leaving the process to the Supreme Court of Virginia, which appointed two special masters to carry out the task. Since lawmakers were no longer drawing lines out of self-interest, many ended up in new districts or sharing a district with one or two other incumbents.

“I think having those incumbent-versus-incumbent races was something that pushed the retirement rate up,” says J. Miles Coleman, associate editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

One example is Democratic Sen. John Edwards of Roanoke, who was drawn into a district with Republican Sen. David Suetterlein that voted 55% Republican in the 2021 gubernatorial election. Edwards opted to retire.

Other lawmakers faced primary challengers on June 20 — sometimes from fellow incumbents. One of the most dramatic examples played out in Hampton Roads, where longtime Democratic Sens. Louise Lucas and Lionel Spruill vied to represent Senate District 18.

Lucas, the Senate’s president pro tempore, beat Spruill with 54% of the vote in the Democratic primary, and incumbent Senate Democrats George Barker, Joe Morrissey and Chap Petersen all lost their primaries. Republican Senate incumbent Amanda Chase lost her primary to former state senator Glen Sturtevant. A strident Trump supporter who continues to argue baselessly that the 2020 election was “stolen,” Chase has disputed her own election results, claiming that early votes were made on computers that don’t comply with state law.

Retirements account for nearly a fifth of the House’s turnover and more than a quarter of the Senate’s. A Virginia Chamber of Commerce analysis suggests Virginia will see at least 11 new senators and 32 new delegates enter office in January 2024, although some may be familiar faces, with several delegates running for Senate, including Democrats Danica Roem in Prince William County and Schuyler VanValkenburg in Henrico County and Republican Christopher Head in Botetourt County.

It’s not just the sheer numbers of departing members that will affect the General Assembly, but also the depth of experience being lost.

“At a minimum, it’s 581 years of experience guaranteed not returning,” says Chris Saxman, a former state delegate and executive director of Virginia FREE, a nonpartisan business-focused political organization. Coupled with incumbent losses in primaries, Saxman adds, “We’re probably going to crest 600 years not returning. We’re in a generational shift.”

Turnover starts at top

In the state Senate, both parties’ leaders are stepping down after decades in office.

At the end of 2023, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Saslaw will have served 48 years in the Assembly, just short of the record 52 years set by the late Del. Lacey Putney. Republican Senate Minority Leader Norment has served for 30 years.

Together, the two relatively moderate leaders held the center of political power in the Senate for decades, playing leading roles in big, complex legislation affecting business, such as utility regulation, taxes and transportation funding. They cultivated a working relationship that largely kept the Senate a moderating force even as state politics grew more partisan and divisive.

“It’s almost hard to imagine the Senate without Dick Saslaw and Tommy Norment,” says University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. “They are big personalities and leaders that know how to get things done. They can be partisan but also bipartisan, whatever the situation calls for. They are the old model of Virginia legislators, more interested in getting things done than scoring points for their party. I wish more junior legislators would model themselves after the two of them.”

The list of retirements goes beyond Senate leadership to include Democrats and Republicans from across Virginia. New candidates are already stepping up to fill the void. Numerous delegates announced Senate campaigns, while newcomers emerged to run for both House and Senate seats.

No matter what, the chamber will look dramatically different after November.

“It’ll likely be younger, more diverse in both parties,” Saxman says. “New perspective, new generation, more partisan and more focused on winning their districts through the nomination phase than in the past.”

The impending legislative turnover is creating a fraught moment for businesses and trade associations that routinely invest in the campaigns of officials most likely to be on committees affecting their respective industries.

Habeeb says it’s still unclear whether the shift will increase or diminish the power of lobbyists and the businesses they represent. “Anyone who thinks they know what’s going to happen is lying to themselves and to their clients,” he says.

Quick change

Virginia remains a largely divided state, with intensely Democratic and Republican regions. Most of its districts are so partisan that nominees of the favored parties are all but guaranteed election. That leaves just a handful of tossup districts where the parties will fight to win control of the legislature.

“As big an impact as these elections are going to have on the commonwealth and on the agenda of [Gov.] Glenn Youngkin in the second half of his term, it will come down to a relative handful of seats,” Coleman says. “District 31 in the Senate, which is basically western Loudoun County. District 17 in Southside. Democrats are in a situation where I think they’re favored in basically 20 seats in the Senate. They need to get one more. What’s that one more going to be?”

The parties’ respective calculation of Virginia’s most competitive districts will shape the fall campaign. Another likely force will be Youngkin, whose 2021 coattails helped the GOP retake the House majority and win the lieutenant governor and attorney general contests.

For Youngkin, the 2023 election also has provided a handy excuse to sidestep questions about his 2024 presidential ambitions. Asked at a California conference whether he’d campaign for president, Youngkin responded, “No, I’m going to be working in Virginia this year.” Some outlets took that as an indication he’d not join the Republican field of presidential candidates, while others noted the grammar seemed to apply only to this year, not next. The governor has continued to blur the issue, appearing in an ad that some observers saw as foreshadowing a national campaign.

Youngkin has endorsed 50 General Assembly incumbents, 16 nonincumbent Republican nominees and 10 candidates in contested primaries. The latter inspired blowback from a candidate who wasn’t endorsed and who complained about it on a conservative talk radio show. Former NASCAR driver and Southside GOP state Senate candidate Hermie Sadler also expressed frustration with Youngkin. The governor’s political action committee allegedly tried to change the nomination method in Sadler’s district from a primary to a convention, which likely would have favored Sadler’s Youngkin-endorsed opponent.

November’s winners will be rewarded with the opportunity to set the General Assembly’s tone for the next decade or more. To some extent, that tone also will be shaped by this year’s wave of retirements.

“For 20 or 30 years, it didn’t matter who was in charge of Senate — it was a stable body,” Habeeb says. “Those days are gone. Historically, the Senate has prevented massive changes in any given cycle. Now, there’s a scenario where historical change can happen overnight.”

Unfinished business
BY MASON ADAMS

Democrats call out Youngkin on Ford plant decision

Democratic state delegates excoriated Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin on Tuesday for taking Virginia out of the running for a $3.5 billion Ford Motor Co. battery manufacturing plant that would have created at least 2,500 jobs in Southern Virginia. The governor said last week that although Virginia was a finalist for the economic development project, he called a stop to the plant because of its ties to a Chinese company, saying that he didn’t want Ford to serve as “a front for China” in Virginia.

“We all thought we were trying to achieve the same bipartisan goals of bringing good-paying jobs and economic development to Virginia, but apparently, in his absence last year, the governor missed that part of the transition briefing,” Loudoun County Del. David Reid, a Democrat, said on the House of Delegates’ floor. Reid was referring to Youngkin’s extensive 2022 domestic travel schedule, which many political onlookers saw as Youngkin testing the waters for a 2024 presidential run. “At this point, the governor needs to go to Southside, hold a town hall and explain why it is OK for him to make tens of millions of dollars off of investments in China and Chinese investments in the United States when he was in Carlyle Group, but he decided to play politics when it came to the livelihood for an entire region.”

According to a Richmond Times-Dispatch report, Ford was considering building a plant for electric vehicle batteries at Pittsylvania County’s 3,528-acre Southern Virginia Mega Site at Berry Hill, which so far has no tenants, while the state and other investors have spent more than $200 million to prepare the site for industrial use. The plant would have been run by Chinese company Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL), which builds lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Reid, who served as an intelligence officer in the Navy Reserves and worked as a defense contractor, said that “no one in the intel community has ever even remotely implied that Ford was a front company for the Chinese.”

However, Chinese influence in the U.S. has become an increasingly popular talking point among GOP political leaders, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who are both considered potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. DeSantis has said in recent days that he will ask Florida lawmakers to bar Chinese investors from buying farmland and residences, and a Texas legislator has filed a bill that would prevent residents, governments and entities of China, Iran, North Korea and Russia from buying land in Texas.

Former President Donald Trump, the only announced GOP presidential candidate, criticized Youngkin in November 2022, claiming credit for his gubernatorial win and using an anti-Asian slur, saying that Youngkin’s name — spelled by Trump as “Young Kin” — “sounds Chinese.” The governor declined to criticize Trump, saying “I do not call people names.”

Youngkin, like Abbott, also barred all state employees from using state-issued phones or Wi-Fi networks to access Chinese-owned phone apps TikTok and WeChat in a December 2022 executive order, saying in a statement that “TikTok and WeChat data are a channel to the Chinese Communist Party, and their continued presence represents a threat to national security, the intelligence community and the personal privacy of every single American.” During his State of the Commonwealth speech last week, Youngkin called on the state legislature to ban selling Virginia farmland to Chinese investors.

“It is deeply disappointing that Gov. Youngkin would turn away business investment and jobs from Ford Motor Co. due to political considerations and a new obsession with China. It’s clear that the governor has put his personal politics above jobs for Virginia communities,” Democratic state Sen. Jennifer McClellan, who is running for the late Donald McEachin’s congressional seat, said Friday.

However, as Reid noted, when Youngkin was co-CEO of Carlyle Group Inc., a Washington, D.C.-based private equity fund, he benefited financially from the company’s investments in Chinese industries, including ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company. In 2021, when he was running for governor, Youngkin had an estimated net worth of about $400 million, making him the wealthiest governor in the state’s history.

Republican delegates defended Youngkin’s decision to pull Virginia from consideration for the Ford plant. “Bringing the right jobs to Danville … is critical,” said Del. Terry Kilgore, a Republican who serves on the state Tobacco Region Revitalization Commission, which assists localities in Southern and Southwest Virginia in boosting economic development projects with funds from tobacco civil lawsuits settled decades ago. “But Bloomberg reported in December that Ford Motor Co. was planning to run this proposed electric vehicle plant through a conglomerate that coordinates closely with the Chinese Communist Party.”

The Dec. 15, 2022, Bloomberg news article notes that former U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan last year strained relations between the U.S. and China, leading to CATL’s delay in building a new facility in North America, which would have been constructed in Virginia or Michigan, according to multiple news reports. Under Ford’s agreement with CATL, the American vehicle builder would own 100% of the plant while CATL would operate the plant and own the technology to build the batteries.

Meanwhile, Virginia Beach Republican Del. Tim Anderson cautioned against the use of cobalt in electric car batteries, arguing that “child slaves” are mining cobalt used in batteries and other tech devices. “If we’re going to bring new business to Virginia, I would like to bring something to Virginia that doesn’t have slave trade supply-chain issues.”

Siddharth Kara, a Harvard visiting professor, has written a book being published later this month about horrifying conditions at cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including child labor, which has also been reported by The New Yorker and other media outlets. The mineral is used in the production of lithium-ion batteries. According to the 2021 New Yorker story, cobalt keeps the batteries from catching fire, and cobalt’s value has gone up significantly in recent years.

However, lithium iron phosphate batteries — the kind that would be produced by the Ford plant — do not use cobalt, and electric vehicle manufacturers, including Tesla, are increasingly moving toward cobalt-free batteries, according to news reports.

2022 Political Roundtable: Red wave? Maybe a puddle

On balance, Democrats came out winners in the 2022 midterm elections, having staved off a widely forecast “red wave” of Republican victories, according to panelists at Virginia Business’ annual Political Roundtable, held Nov. 9 in Richmond.

The idea of a red wave or “red tsunami” was “perhaps … a bit of a myth … largely created by the media,” noted Amanda Wintersieck, associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University. Political scientists, she said, weren’t predicting overwhelming Republican victories — despite inflation being at a 40-year high and President Joe Biden’s approval ratings remaining low.

Political prediction markets like Predictit.org, she added, indicated that control of the Senate was a toss-up, leaning toward Democrats, and that Republicans were slightly favored to take control of the House.

And in fact, by mid-November, Democrats had cemented their slight majority in the Senate, while Republicans won a slim House majority.

Panelists who took part in the 16th annual Virginia Business Political Roundtable at the Richmond Marriott included James W. “Jim” Dyke Jr., senior state government relations advisor with McGuireWoods Consulting; University of Mary Washington Professor Stephen Farnsworth; Gentry Locke Attorneys partner and Republican former state Del. Gregory Habeeb; Regent University Assistant Professor Andrew J. “A.J.” Nolte; and Wintersieck.

The panelists noted that candidates ideologically aligned with or endorsed by former President Donald Trump lost their races or underperformed, notably including Pennsylvania Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz, who lost to Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. After the election, some Republicans began publicly distancing themselves from Trump, including Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.

“Southeastern Pennsylvania, the very suburban area outside of Philadelphia, where there’s a lot of highly affluent, college-educated white voters who tend to be more socially liberal — Oz really needed those voters,” Nolte said. “He was not going to get Trump numbers out of the Trumpy areas of Pennsylvania.”

Habeeb noted that the midterms confirmed that Trump’s appeal to his base “isn’t transferable to other candidates,” and that “candidates really, really matter” in terms of appeal. Additionally, he said, “we live in a very 50-50 country. I think [2021] redistricting did have a role in lots of states at the House level, although it nets out because there’s pluses and minuses for each party.”

In any event, Habeeb said, the midterms “did not become a referendum on Biden.”

The U.S. Supreme Court’s June ruling overturning Roe v. Wade did motivate some voters, panelists said, as did feelings about Trump and the false “stolen election” narrative.

“The Democrats, looking at economic anxiety, high inflation and the relatively middling evaluation of Biden, had a problem if the conversation was about the economy,” Farnsworth said, noting that Trump and abortion were “two different narratives [for Democrats] to choose from.”

In Virginia, political watchers had their eyes on three heavily contested House races in which incumbent Democrats Elaine Luria, Abigail Spanberger and Jennifer Wexton were defending their seats in redrawn districts. Spanberger and Wexton won their races by a few points, while Luria lost in Hampton Roads to Republican state Sen. Jen Kiggans by four percentage points.

Dyke said that Luria’s redrawn district, which skewed slightly more Republican, was a significant factor. A slightly bluer district helped Spanberger — but Dyke also cited a flawed campaign by Trump-backed GOP challenger Yesli Vega, a Prince William supervisor who took controversial, far-right stances.

Speaking about midterm trends, Dyke added, “With all these election deniers, from what I’ve been able to see is [that] most of those have gone down to defeat because, hopefully, people recognize that preserving our democracy is very, very important.”

On the cusp

Once again, Virginia is a significant factor in this year’s national electoral playing field, in which Democrats are jockeying to stay in power and Republicans are anticipated to make midterm gains.

Three congressional districts in the commonwealth — all held by Democratic female incumbents — are considered vulnerable to the GOP by differing degrees.

The competitive races in Virginia’s 2nd, 7th and 10th congressional districts not only will determine which party will hold the majority of the state’s 11 newly redrawn districts, but whether Republicans can regain control in the U.S. House of Representatives.

In Hampton Roads, Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria is running for re-election against Republican state Sen. Jennifer Kiggans in the 2nd District. Luria’s prominence as part of the Jan. 6 congressional investigation has amplified her role at the Capitol but also made her more of a target, especially after Democratic-leaning parts of Norfolk were drawn out of the district after the 2020 U.S. Census.

The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics ranked the Kiggans-Luria race as a toss-up in late August, and the competitive 7th District was deemed “leans Democratic,” favoring incumbent U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who is running against Republican Yesli Vega, a Prince William County supervisor and auxiliary deputy with the county sheriff’s office. The 2021 redrawing of Virginia’s districts shifted Spanberger’s district to the north, removing Richmond’s suburbs and including Fredericksburg and the counties of Prince William, Stafford, Culpeper, Orange and Greene, among others.

Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger is running for her third term in the newly redrawn 7th District. Photo by Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images

Finally, there’s Northern Virginia’s 10th District, where Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Jennifer Wexton is defending a seat she flipped in 2018. Wexton’s opponent is Hung Cao, a retired U.S. Navy captain who emerged from a crowded GOP primary of 10 prospective challengers. It’s not likely to flip, state political analysts say, but if it does, it would likely signal a massive Republican wave. Think 2014, when the GOP won 247 seats in the House of Representatives — a 59-seat majority — during Barack Obama’s last term as president.

“Virginia’s interesting in terms of the [potential GOP] wave,” says A.J. Nolte, assistant professor in the Robertson School of Government at Virginia Beach’s Regent University. “If you think about [a] beach analogy, if Luria wins, Democrats aren’t even getting their toes wet. If Hung Cao wins, they probably didn’t spend enough money on flood insurance.”

August polling in Virginia showed Spanberger with a 5-point edge over Vega, and Luria also leading Kiggans by 5 points.

National headwinds

Earlier in the year, the conventional wisdom viewed a GOP sweep of the House and Senate this fall as increasingly likely, amid low approval ratings plaguing President Joe Biden, gas exceeding $5 a gallon and inflation hitting its highest rate in four decades. Now, that outcome is less sure, political observers note.

The U.S. Supreme Court’s June ruling to overturn Roe vs. Wade, leaving many states without access to legalized abortion due to state trigger laws, has energized Democratic and some independent voters who want to see a Democratic-controlled Congress pass federal legislation to allow abortions. Biden and House Democrats sought to pass laws this year, but the tightly controlled Senate — as well as a filibuster rule that required a 60-vote majority to enact legislation — prevented it.

But after that predicted failure, gas prices declined below $3.50 and Biden notched some successes: pledging to forgive up to $20,000 in student loans for Pell Grant recipients and other people with federal loans due, as well as passing inflation reduction, infrastructure and semiconductor chips spending bills.

Another possible factor governing voter enthusiasm: The raid on Mar-a-Lago, in which FBI agents recovered thousands of classified documents at former President Donald Trump’s Florida resort in August as part of an investigation into violations of the Espionage Act, obstruction of justice and criminal handling of government records. Although it’s not clear that Trump or anyone else will be criminally charged in connection with the investigation, the event has stoked partisan emotions. In a Sept. 1 prime-time address to the nation, Biden condemned “MAGA Republicans” who support Trump’s false claims of a stolen 2020 election, unprovable cases of election fraud and violent political statements like those that led up to the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.

In Hampton Roads, U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria, the Democratic incumbent, is running a tight race for a third term after redrawn boundaries erased Democratic-leaning parts of Norfolk from the 2nd District. Photo by AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

In a Wall Street Journal poll conducted Aug. 17-25, 64% of Republican respondents said they’re more likely to vote in November due to the FBI search, while 37% of independent voters and 36% of Democrats said they were more likely to vote because of the search.

In August, Democrats celebrated the congressional win of Mary Peltola in Alaska, where she becomes the first Alaska Native woman to hold congressional office. The special election was held to replace the late U.S. Rep. Don Young, but a second regular election takes place in November. Among Peltola’s opponents in August and this fall is former GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, who has since complained about the state’s use of a ranked-choice ballot in the special election.

Palin’s August loss aside, many experts still predict Republicans will win control of the House of Representatives this fall — but The Cook Political Report wrote in September that a GOP majority in the House is “no longer a foregone conclusion.”

The party in control of the White House historically performs poorly in midterm elections — and Biden’s approval ratings have been historically low.

As of Sept. 1, Rasmussen and Wall Street Journal polls showed Biden’s job approval rating at 44% and 45%, respectively, while 54% disapproved, putting him 9 to 10 percentage points underwater. Polling site FiveThirtyEight also had Biden’s approval rate at a similar 42.3% on Sept. 15.

Democrats in Virginia are well aware of the possibility of failure, as Gov. Glenn Youngkin led a GOP sweep last November of the state’s top offices, with Republicans also regaining control of the Virginia House of Delegates. Pundits noted in 2021 that the party in control of the White House has historically lost the governor’s race the following year, and with significant numbers of suburban voters having jumped on the affable, fleece-vest-wearing Youngkin’s bandwagon, Republicans won their first statewide victories since 2009.

The Republican Party of Virginia say it’s a reaction to the public’s displeasure with Democrats and the Biden White House. “Virginians are tired of the Biden administration’s failed policy agenda that is hurting American families at the pump, the grocery store and everywhere in between,” says Ellie Sorensen, the state party’s press secretary.

Yet Virginia Democrats say abortion rights — which are currently protected in Virginia by Democrats’ narrow majority in the state Senate — are a major incentive for liberal-leaning voters to vote this year and next.

“It comes down to choice for everyone who lives here,” says Democratic Party of Virginia Chair Susan Swecker. “Do you want to elect officials who will defend reproductive rights or empower those who want to rip them away?”

Nevertheless, analysts opine that Biden’s low approval ratings and rising inflation still tilt the odds slightly toward the GOP.

“I still view it as a Republican-leaning midterm environment,” says Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an online political newsletter and election handicapper produced by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

Setting boundaries

Virginia’s congressional candidates are running in new districts for the first time in a decade. Virginia’s new bipartisan redistricting commission deadlocked after the 2020 Census, leading to the Virginia Supreme Court appointing experts to draw the districts.

The new maps tilted Luria’s district slightly more Republican.

“The map still favors Republicans, although the new map has fewer wasted Democratic votes,” says Amanda Wintersieck, associate professor at Virginia Commonwealth University. “The 2nd was a safer district for Democrats prior to redrawing lines. Today it is more Republican.”

The 2nd District consists largely of Hampton Roads communities, centered on the Republican-leaning swing city of Virginia Beach. Its congressional seat has flipped between political parties four times since 2000. Luria is running to hold it in a challenging atmosphere, against a strong candidate in state Sen. Kiggans.

Republican State Sen. Jen Kiggans is opposing Luria in the 10th District race, which U.Va.’s Center for Politics deemed a toss-up in late August. Photo by AP Photo/Steve Helber

Kiggans says her time in the Virginia Senate has given her “a firsthand look at the danger and insanity of liberal, one-party political rule here in the commonwealth,” the nurse practitioner and Navy veteran helicopter pilot says. Her first two years in the Senate, after she won a seat in 2019 formerly held by Democrats, coincided with Democratic control of both legislative houses and the top three state offices.

“I’m running for Congress to restore American strength in our economy, communities, borders and our military,” Kiggans says. “Virginians are suffering at the gas pump, at the grocery store and everywhere in between. Americans have a choice whether or not they want to continue like this for two more years or make a change.”

Luria, who also was a naval officer before taking congressional office in 2019, cites her experience running a business as a formative experience, saying it led her to lobby the General Assembly “to change the restrictive licensing red tape on businesses like mine and expand opportunities for others.” (Luria and her husband established and later sold a small local retail chain and art studio, The Mermaid Factory, specializing in mermaid-themed souvenirs.)

“Supporting the business community remains one of my top priorities in Congress,” Luria says, “and I am committed to ensuring businesses and working families have the resources they need to thrive.”

As for her participation in the House of Representatives’ Jan. 6 select committee, Luria says the day of the U.S. Capitol raid was “one of the darkest days of our democracy,” and adds that protecting the country’s democratic institutions is a key part of her oath to uphold the Constitution.

Chris Saxman, executive director of Virginia FREE and a former Republican delegate, says this argument probably matters less in the 2nd District than it would in areas closer to Washington, D.C.

“It’s important to differentiate the 2nd from statewide,” Saxman says. “The level of intensity against Trump in the Northern Virginia area is off the charts, because he ran against the swamp. ‘Drain the swamp’ — that’s Northern Virginia. There’s deep antipathy for Donald Trump in that area, [but] with him not on the ballot, I don’t know how much of an accelerant and stimulant it is for anti-Trump voters.”

The 7th District is considered only slightly less competitive than the 2nd. Spanberger defeated two-term Republican U.S. Rep. David Brat to win election in 2018 amid the same Democratic wave that put Luria and Wexton in office. Redistricting saw the 7th District lose some Republican-leaning Richmond suburbs but pick up more Democratic-leaning Northern Virginia suburbs.

“It’s a mildly-leaning-Democratic seat,” Kondik says. “Biden won it by 7 points. It’s probably one of the most expensive, high- profile House races in all the country. Republicans look at this and say, ‘This is the type of seat that should flip in a year like this.’”

Because of the boundary shifts, Spanberger is new to many of its voters and has had to reintroduce herself. The former CIA officer has walked a fine line — pushing back against party leader Nancy Pelosi and the progressive House “squad” — to win and retain her previous district, which was held by Republicans for more than three decades.

“In no particular order, the issues that I hear Virginians talk about the most are high costs at the grocery store and pharmacy counter, public safety and the fundamental threat to privacy as a result of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade,” Spanberger says. “I’m focused on moving solutions forward that businesses know will help all Virginians get ahead — like strengthening support for workforce training programs, cutting burdensome and unnecessary red tape, and expanding high-speed broadband internet access.”

A Prince William County supervisor and former police officer, Vega decries how “massive government handouts” during the pandemic disrupted the economy.

“The economy is the top issue for voters in our district right now,” Vega says. “Our country is in a recession and people are struggling to make ends meet with soaring gas and food prices. With the cost of living through the roof, my top priority will be working to relieve the burden of increased costs on our nation’s citizens and reduce unnecessary taxes and regulations that are crushing our small businesses.”

In late August, The Cook Political Report moved the race from a toss-up to “leans Democratic.” Kondik gives Spanberger an edge as well. “My guess is she and her campaign will be able to make some hay out of what Vega has said about abortion,” he says.

In June at a Stafford County event, Vega expressed support for more restrictions on abortion, before adding, “The left will say, ‘Well, what about in cases of rape or incest?’ I’m a law enforcement officer. I became a police officer in 2011. I’ve worked one case where as a result of a rape, the young woman became pregnant.”

Spanberger tweeted that her opponent’s words were “extreme and ignorant,” and the state Democratic party has continued to push the issue in statements through the summer.

But Regent University’s Nolte says Vega’s comments likely will make less difference to voters than economic issues.

“In a neutral economy, social issues are potentially a very effective wedge,” Nolte says. “Inflation numbers and gas prices have gone down some. They would have to go down a lot further for this not to be an economic election and referendum on Biden.”

The 10th District only recently flipped after being represented by Republicans since 1981. Democrat Wexton defeated incumbent Republican Barbara Comstock in 2018 by 13 points and held the seat by the same margin in 2020.

“It’s been my top priority to bring down costs for Virginians and ease the burden of inflation on families’ budgets,” Wexton says. “I’m proud that we’ve passed major legislation to lower health care and prescription drug costs, take meaningful action to combat climate change and ensure a healthy planet for our future, and tackle inflation while reducing the deficit.”

Analysts see the 10th District as less competitive than either the 2nd or 7th.

“Biden won it by 18 points, and Republicans don’t hold any districts currently that came close to that margin,” Kondik says. “The best Biden district they hold is 10 or 11 points. It flips if it’s a mega [GOP] wave. I’m skeptical of that. It’s still a Republican wave year, but not quite as sharp as most wave years.”

Nolte also ranks the 10th as the least competitive of Virginia’s three districts in play. But he sees a possible route for Republicans, particularly if Cao can pull big numbers among Asian voters. Nolte also identifies an additional campaign dynamic to watch: Youngkin’s travels to support GOP candidates in other states.

Democrats have used his busy travel schedule — including trips to Michigan, Georgia, Kansas, Maine, New Mexico and Oregon — to question his interest in serving as governor, and Youngkin has not definitively said he is uninterested in a presidential run.

“It’s not too early to start thinking about 2024,” Nolte says — a nod to the next presidential election. “Watch the endorsements and watch who is coming and campaigning for whom. In and out of Virginia, what is Youngkin doing?”

Midterm murkiness

Republicans look to extend their 2021 wins in state elections as they closely eye congressional targets in November’s midterm elections.

Democrats hold seven of the state’s 11 congressional seats, with three of those having changed hands during the last midterms in 2018. U.S. Reps. Elaine Luria of Norfolk, Abigail Spanberger of Glen Allen and Jennifer Wexton of Leesburg were elected as part of a blue wave that saw Republicans lose seats across the country during President Donald Trump’s term.

Now, it’s Democrats’ turn to brace for widespread losses as President Joe Biden’s approval rating has dropped below 40% amid skyrocketing inflation, stocks flirting with bear market territory, and recent survey results from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research showing that only two in 10 adults say the U.S. is heading in the right direction or the economy is good.

It’s still unclear how that will play out in Virginia, where polling remains sparse.

“We just don’t know,” says Amanda Wintersieck, assistant professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University. “We have very little data. There is exactly one poll from more than a month ago now, and it’s specifically focused on [Luria’s race in] House District 2.”

Luria and Spanberger appear to be the GOP’s top targets.

Luria, a retired Navy commander, defeated incumbent Scott Taylor, a former Navy SEAL, in 2018 by 51.1% to 48.8%, then again in a 2020 rematch that also included an independent candidate. Her Republican challenger for this year’s race was not yet determined by press time for this issue. Republicans were slated to choose their candidate for the seat in a June 21 primary between state Sen. Jen Kiggans, Tommy Altman, Andy Baan and Jarome Bell.

Spanberger, a former CIA operations officer, has prevailed in even closer races than Luria. The Richmond-area congressional representative defeated incumbent Dave Brat in 2018 by a 50.3% to 48.4% margin, then defeated state Del. Nick Freitas by a similar margin in 2020. The GOP candidates running in the June 21 primary to face her included state Sen. Bryce Reeves of Spotsylvania; Derrick Anderson; Gina Ciarcia; David Ross; Crystal Vanuch; and Yesli Vega.

The 10th congressional district was held by Republicans from 1980 until 2018 but trended left until then-state Sen. Jennifer Wexton defeated incumbent Barbara Comstock 56.1% to 43.7%. Wexton was reelected by a slightly larger margin in
2020. In a May convention battle between 11 candidates, Republicans nominated retired U.S. Navy Capt. Hung Cao to run against Wexton.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a political newsletter published by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, rates the 10th — as well as the 3rd, 4th, 8th and 11th districts — as “Safe Democratic.” The 1st, 5th, 6th and 9th districts are rated as “Safe Republican.” In early June, Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated Spanberger’s 7th District as “Leans Democratic,” indicating a more competitive race, and Luria’s 2nd District race as a “Toss-up.”

The midterms take place across 11 new congressional districts drawn by the Virginia Supreme Court after a bipartisan commission failed to come to any agreement on state and congressional redistricting. The court appointed two special masters who proposed new maps, which were opened to public comments and then tweaked.

The court also approved new maps drawn by the specialists for the 40 districts of the Virginia Senate and the 100 districts for the House of Delegates.

Democratic lawyer Paul Goldman argued the 2021 House of Delegates elections had taken place in outdated districts and sued the state to force new elections this year, instead of waiting until 2023. However, in June, a panel of three federal judges dismissed Goldman’s lawsuit, ruling that he lacked standing to bring the legal challenge. State elections will take place as scheduled in 2023.

VCU’s Wintersieck says many Republicans expect to retake the U.S. House of Representatives during this year’s midterms, and perhaps the U.S. Senate too. That’s largely because they’re currently locked out of power, which lends greater urgency among their base while swing voters tend to focus their frustrations on whoever’s in the White House.

“Negativity bias is really taking hold,” Wintersieck says. “People in the ‘out’ group are much more incentivized to vote. In this regard, we should expect turnout more from Republicans than Democrats. Dems [are] not as driven by burning desire, and we’re seeing disillusionment among youth voters or progressive voters, which could result in lower turnout.”

Democrats could be fired up, however, by a leaked draft opinion that came out in May suggesting that the U.S. Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade — the landmark 1973 ruling that established a woman’s right to have an abortion without excessive government restrictions. That could rally Democrats who need something to vote against, instead of something to vote for.

“It’s a small boost of negativity for Democrats who do not want to see women’s health care in the form of abortion abolished,” Wintersieck says. “It makes them more competitive, but if you look through history, the reigning political party typically loses at least some seats in elections. So, it may mitigate some losses, but I don’t expect it to completely alleviate them.”

Political scientist Stephen Farnsworth at the University of Mary Washington agrees but warns that a Roe reversal still could trigger backlash.

“Normally, midterms are very painful for the president’s party,” Farnsworth says. “On average, the president’s party can expect to lose 20 seats in the House and three seats in the Senate. There are sometimes exceptions. If the abortion decision reverses Roe v. Wade, as seems likely, this may be another one of those exceptional elections where the president’s party doesn’t suffer as much as it might otherwise.”

Election Day is Nov. 8.

Balancing act

The Virginia General Assembly returned to a familiar configuration in 2022, legislating with a Republican-majority House of Delegates and Democratic-controlled Virginia Senate for the seventh time since 2000.

But while the partisan split was old hat, much else about the session was new, taking place two years into the global COVID-19 pandemic and occurring after two years of Democratic control that brought progressive priorities to the Old Dominion.

The session also featured a new player: first-year Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican businessman who had never served in elected office until his January inauguration.

From a business perspective, the partisan split’s not necessarily a bad thing, politicos say.

“As many lobbyists tell me, divided government tends to be a better construct for them as they try to help their associations and clients,” says Chris Saxman, a former Republican delegate and executive director of Virginia FREE. “There’s more competition from the parties, [and] competition is good. It draws out what are important issues, policies and sometimes demeanor when it comes to being successful.”

With CNBC naming Virginia its top state for business for the past two years, neither party was incentivized to make major changes that could negatively affect that unprecedented ranking.

Yet the legislative session’s relatively staid results belie the partisan acrimony that simmered in Richmond. Youngkin and House Republicans tried to reverse course after two years of Democratic control, but were stopped by Senate Democrats. At times, the partisan divide took a personal turn, as the parties clashed over the budget and confirmations at the Capitol, and in blunter terms on social media.

“We approached the session with an understanding that Democrats still controlled the Senate,” says House Speaker Todd Gilbert, a Republican from Shenandoah County. “We knew amending or reversing policies passed under complete Democratic control wouldn’t be likely.”

After the session, “I think the bottom line is, we’re roughly in the same place,” says Sen. John Bell, a Democrat from Loudoun County. “I think people from both sides want to keep that label as being business friendly. If we allow the extremes of either party to go through, we wouldn’t be. And that would be a major problem.”

While Virginia is familiar with a divided legislature, the gulf between parties appears deeper than at any time in modern history. Partisan politics have become even more polarized, while Donald Trump’s presidency and ongoing influence in the GOP have disrupted party alignments and priorities in ways still playing out now.

Youngkin swept into office last year on a wave of momentum from suburban voters motivated by battles over public school policies and curricula, as well as weariness with pandemic-driven mask mandates and other regulations. The former Carlyle Group co-CEO was sworn in on Jan. 15 and immediately signed 11 executive actions, including allowing parents to decide whether their children should wear masks in schools, attempting to withdraw the state from a regional carbon trading market and declaring Virginia “open for business.”

Six days later, Youngkin announced his package of legislative and budget priorities, including measures to eliminate the grocery tax and to create 20 charter schools across the state. On Feb. 7, his press office issued a news release, “Governor Youngkin Delivers on Promises, Day One Game Plan Bill Passes House of Delegates.”

That momentum proved to be a mirage, though, as the Virginia Senate soon became an insurmountable hurdle for much of Youngkin’s agenda.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin signed a bill banning mask mandates in public schools in Virginia during a Feb. 16 signing ceremony on the steps of the State Capitol. Photo by AP Images/Steve Helber

Some victories, some defeats

That’s not to say the governor didn’t have wins. The Senate backed a proposal by Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, R-Henrico, to keep schools open five days a week for in-person instruction and to ensure a parental opt-out from school mask mandates.

“I promised that … Virginia would move forward with an agenda that empowers parents on the upbringing, education and care of their own children,” Youngkin said after the vote. “I am proud to continue to deliver on that promise.”

And, in budget negotiations, Youngkin’s platform to repeal grocery taxes was partially successful, with the 1.5% state portion eliminated but retaining the 1% tax for localities. Also, $100 million will go toward the College Partnership Laboratory Schools Fund to establish K-12 “lab schools,” public, nonsectarian institutions housed in colleges and universities.

But the Senate blocked many Republican initiatives, including a gas tax holiday, reversing an increase in the minimum wage and banning teaching of “inherently divisive concepts.” Meanwhile, the GOP took aim at “critical race theory,” an academic lens for examining how race is built into societal institutions that superintendents deny is taught in public schools, but typically used by partisans to encompass classroom instruction on racial issues and history.

The Democratic-controlled Senate also rejected former Trump administration Environmental Protection Agency head Andrew Wheeler to serve in Youngkin’s Cabinet as secretary of natural and historic resources, although Wheeler is serving as an adviser to the governor now. That set off an escalating feud as the Republican-led House then blocked 11 of outgoing Gov. Ralph Northam’s appointees to different boards and commissions, and the Senate then rejected all but one of Youngkin’s nominees to the parole board.

Amid the tension, Senate President Pro Tempore Louise Lucas, an eight-term Democratic senator from Portsmouth, became the face of Youngkin’s opposition on social media as she accrued more than 64,000 followers for her biting commentary on Twitter. In one memorable moment, she tweeted about a text message Youngkin sent her complimenting her for a speech that was instead made by another Black female senator, Mamie Locke, D-Hampton. The governor apologized, and Lucas and Locke later wore replicas of Youngkin’s signature red vest on the Senate floor.

All humor aside, “I want to give voice to what’s happening to us as voters,” Lucas says. “A lot of people got hoodwinked by him [Youngkin]. They didn’t know he had all these Trumpian policies.”

Youngkin made his own move to communicate more directly to voters, purchasing an ad during March Madness basketball games to pressure Democratic lawmakers to approve his budget priorities. Sen. Adam Ebbin, D-Alexandria, dismissed it as “a gimmick.” Youngkin later vetoed nine of Ebbin’s 10 bills that passed the legislature, apparently in retaliation for Ebbin’s role in blocking his nominees.

The governor won some legislative victories, including the passage of a bill to let parents opt their children out of reading assigned material with sexual content. But more often his accomplishments came from nonpartisan economic development announcements such as the recent decisions by Raytheon Technologies Corp. and The Boeing Co., the world’s second- and third-largest defense contractors, to relocate their global headquarters to Arlington.

“I’m pleased with what we got done in the House, but I do wish we had been able to get more through the Senate,” Gilbert says. “We had lots of good bills come out of the House just to die in Senate committees.”

Holding firm

Democrats view the session differently, noting that many of their signature accomplishments from the last two sessions remain intact.

“The firewall held,” Bell says. “One thing that was wise was that many of the partisan pieces of legislation from the House didn’t make it out of the House, and partisan legislation from the Senate didn’t make it out of the Senate. It’s a good thing that far reaches from right or left aren’t going to pass.”

Take the Virginia Clean Economy Act, a 2020 law that commits to decarbonize the state’s electric grid by 2050, ending the use of coal to generate power and incentivizing more solar and wind. Every House Republican voted in favor of a bill to roll back the law, but the repeal attempt was swiftly killed in a Senate subcommittee.

“A wise thing I’ve learned, often stated by people of both parties, is that when new legislation is passed, give it a couple of years until you make any changes,” Bell says. “Most of this legislation, the ink is pretty wet.”

The General Assembly, however, “nibbled around the edges” on energy policy, says House Majority Leader Del. Terry Kilgore of Scott County. That included passage of a bill to remove power from citizen air and water control boards, after the former blocked permitting for a compressor station on a Mountain Valley Pipeline extension.

Youngkin also vowed to withdraw Virginia from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, an 11-state carbon market to cap and reduce greenhouse emissions in the power sector. He wasn’t able to do so immediately by executive order because Virginia’s membership was enacted by the seven-member citizen state air pollution control board. However, he has appointed two new members — former electric cooperative executives — to the board, which can then fulfill his edict.

The General Assembly failed to pass a two-year budget until June, when lawmakers finally approved a compromise that increased the standard tax deduction for individuals and joint filers without doubling it, as Republicans had called for. The budget also included $1.25 billion for school construction and modernization, and $159 million for the Virginia Economic Development Partnership to develop more “megasites” of the type that have been targeted by auto manufacturers who’ve recently announced new factories in Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina and Tennessee — but not Virginia.

Democrats also used the extended session to elect a new House minority leader, Del. Don Scott Jr. of Portsmouth, after ousting Del. Eileen Filler-Corn in April. Filler-Corn served as Virginia’s first female and Jewish speaker when Democrats held the chamber in 2020 and 2021.

Virginia lawmakers frequently have needed extra time to resolve budget impasses beyond the end of the regular session, a problem for businesses as well as localities waiting to set their own budgets.

“It’s become something of a tradition that needs to be broken, because it sends a signal to everyone in Virginia that deadlines don’t matter, when in fact they do,” Saxman says. “The business community grows increasingly uncomfortable with both parties when they can’t resolve what are frankly in the business world easily resolvable issues.”

Football fumbles

As of early June, there was still no resolution on a bill to award a state subsidy to attract the NFL’s Washington Commanders to build a stadium in Virginia. Early in the session, subsidy estimates ran as high as $1 billion, but through the spring fell to $350 million as headlines about an allegedly hostile work culture continued to plague owner Daniel Snyder. Key Democrats and Republicans supported the proposal, but it ultimately failed to come up for a vote — largely from concern about going into business with a troubled organization.

The Ashburn-based football team and its ownership have been under investigation for allegations of sexual harassment and workplace misconduct, and Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares announced in April that his office was investigating allegations the franchise engaged in financial improprieties.

“There are many, many studies that show that jurisdictions that are very generous to football teams do not recoup an effective return on their investment,” says Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington. “This seems doubly true in the case of a legally-challenged and performance-challenged football franchise.”

In late May, the Commanders acquired the right to purchase 200 acres in Prince William County that drove speculation about its plans. The team also was considering other sites in Prince William County and Loudoun County, as well as its current site in Landover, Maryland.

The state legislature also got involved in what had been a municipal matter: Richmond’s casino referendum. After city voters rejected the proposed $565 million casino developed by media company Urban One Inc. in November 2021, Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, several City Council members and Urban One quickly regrouped and launched a plan for a second referendum vote in November, approved in March by council and a circuit judge.

Meanwhile, state Sen. Joe Morrissey, a Democrat who represents parts of Richmond and Petersburg, had already started efforts to move the project to Petersburg. His bill to get a referendum on Petersburg’s ballot this year failed, but he prevented Richmond from placing a second referendum on ballots until November 2023 via a budget amendment.

As of early June, Richmond and Urban One officials say they are examining their legal options.

Also in the air is regulating the retail market for marijuana, which Democrats legalized in 2021 without establishing a commercial structure. The Senate passed a bill to complete that work in 2022, but the House rejected it. However, retail sales of synthetic THC products like Delta-8 — which some Democrats and Republicans attempted to outlaw — were approved, and lawmakers also approved misdemeanor penalties for people caught in public with more than four ounces of marijuana.

“Democrats let the genie of legalization out of the bottle, and I don’t think there’s any going back from that,” says Gilbert, a former prosecutor. “But I’m concerned about the idea of having marijuana stores popping up in Virginia without regard to what’s being offered to consumers. We have a hard enough time keeping kids away from alcohol and tobacco, and some of these edible products that have come to market in Virginia look very enticing for kids.”

Lucas, who maintains an ownership stake in The Cannabis Outlet, a cannabis products store with branches in Norfolk and Portsmouth, says the legislature must deliver on its promise of a commercial cannabis market that includes social equity provisions for communities adversely affected by decades of marijuana criminalization.

“Polls show the majority of Virginians want to see marijuana legalized,” Lucas says. “African American and brown people have suffered the hardships of prohibition. How dare we have an industry this large leave out the folks who have suffered the most? We need to legalize recreational sales — I’m hoping by 2023, not 2024. Why are we penalizing people for things that would make them feel better and healthier?”

Saxman says it’s best that lawmakers take their time with a complex issue that affects not just retailers but other stakeholders, including insurers and the criminal justice system.

Others agree that complicated bills take time to find consensus — especially in a divided General Assembly.

“That shouldn’t surprise anyone,” Farnsworth says. “It’s a radical departure from the past. These are complicated issues and big changes. These are things that should take time.”

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