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VACUL to merge with regional credit union group Jan. 1

Members of the Virginia Credit Union League and the League of Southeastern Credit Unions & Affiliates voted Thursday to approve the Virginia league’s consolidation with the regional organization. The merger will be in effect Jan. 1, 2025, the two organizations announced Friday.

“Thanks to the support of the membership, we are embracing a powerful opportunity to strengthen credit union engagement and our collective advocacy impact,” Jeff Bentley, VACUL board chair and president and CEO of Northwest Federal Credit Union, said in a statement. “We are now positioned to provide more customized services, innovative solutions and a stronger voice for our members.”

Announced in September, the consolidated group will represent 386 credit unions and 31.5 million members in Alabama, Florida, Georgia and Virginia.

LSCU President Samantha Beeler will lead the association, and the combined service corporation would be led by Steve Willis, president of Leverage, which encompasses 12 companies and more than 30 partnerships in the credit union industry. Beeler and Willis were named in April as dual executive leaders of LSCU, which represents nearly 300 credit union members with almost $200 billion in assets and 12.4 million members.

“We are elated to bring together the best of both legacy organizations to provide greater value for our members and the communities they serve,” Beeler said. “Together, we will be a powerful voice and resource in supporting and growing credit unions across our expanded region.”

Navy Federal ordered to refund customers $80M, pay $15M civil penalty

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is ordering Navy Federal Credit Union to refund more than $80 million to customers and pay a $15 million civil penalty for allegedly charging illegal overdraft fees.

CFPB announced the actions against the nation’s largest credit union on Thursday. CFPB alleges that from 2017 to 2022, Vienna-based Navy Federal charged customers surprise overdraft fees on certain ATM withdrawals and debit card purchases, despite their accounts showing sufficient funds at the transaction times.

The $15 million civil penalty will go to CFPB’s victims relief fund, called the Civil Penalty Fund. According to a CFPB news release, the penalty is the largest that CFPB has levied against a credit union for illegal overdraft fees.

“Navy Federal fully cooperated with the CFPB’s investigation and we will continue to comply with all applicable laws and regulations, just as we always have and as we believe we did here,” The credit union said in a statement. “Nevertheless, this settlement enables us to focus on serving our members and their families. As a member-owned, not-for-profit credit union, we are focused on putting our members first.”

Additionally, the credit union stated, “over the past several years, Navy Federal has continued to comply with evolving expectations — including by automatically refunding certain overdraft fees since January 2023.” It will also eliminate “nonsufficient fund fees” for personal checking accounts in the first quarter of 2025, a reform it announced in October.

As of Sept. 30, Navy Federal had $180 billion in assets. The credit union has 360 branches, more than 14 million members and about 24,000 employees.

“Navy Federal illegally harvested tens of millions of dollars in junk fees, including from active-duty service members and veterans,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. “The CFPB’s work to rid the market of illegal junk fees has saved American families billions of dollars.”

The CFPB said in a news release it found that Navy Federal violated the Consumer Financial Protection Act through charging surprise overdraft fees on purchases made with sufficient funds in consumers’ accounts at the transaction times and by charging overdraft fees resulting from delayed peer-to-peer payments that had undisclosed processing times.

Through its Optional Overdraft Protection Service, Navy Federal charged consumers $20 for most overdraft transactions and collected nearly $1 billion in overdraft fees from 2017 to 2021, according to the CFPB.

According to the CFPB, Navy Federal charged customers overdraft fees if a customer’s account had a negative balance once a transaction posted, although the account had had enough money to cover the transaction when the consumer made it. The credit union collected an average of $44 million annually in these fees, the CFPB alleges.

Navy Federal, the CFPB alleges, also charged overdraft fees when customers tried to use funds from payment services like Zelle, PayPal and Cash App that showed in Navy Federal systems as immediately available to spend but were still processing. The credit union did not disclose that payments received after 10 a.m. Eastern time initially, and later after 8 p.m. EST, wouldn’t post until the next business day. Navy Federal collected at least $4 million from these fines, according to the CFPB.

“We will continue to support and invest in our members — including the military, veterans and their families — to help them meet their financial goals,” Navy Federal said in a statement.

VACUL announces intent to merge with regional group

The Virginia Credit Union League has signed a letter of intent to consolidate with the League of Southeastern Credit Unions & Affiliates, the trade organization representing credit unions in Alabama, Florida and Georgia.

Virginia credit unions will decide this fall whether to merge VACUL’s associations, foundations and service corporations with those of the LSCU, with results set to be announced in November, according to VACUL’s announcement Tuesday. If successful, the merger will create an organization representing 386 credit unions and 31.5 million members that would be led by LSCU President Samantha A.M. Beeler, and the combined service corporation would be led by Steve Willis, president of Leverage, which encompasses 12 companies and more than 30 partnerships in the credit union industry. Beeler and Willis were named in April as dual executive leaders of LSCU, which represents nearly 300 credit union members with almost $200 billion in assets and 12.4 million members.

VACUL, a state trade association, represents 98 credit unions in Virginia. The league offers training and operation resources for members and also lobbies the state legislature and other governmental bodies on behalf of the industry.

“With advocacy being at the core of our focus as an association and board, we believe this move to be in the best interest of credit unions as it will undoubtedly increase our advocacy impact and influence,” Jeff Bentley, VACUL board chair and president and CEO of Northwest Federal Credit Union, said in a statement. “We look forward to continuing our due diligence to identify a path forward that will be beneficial to all Virginia credit unions.”

According to Credit Union Times, this is the first proposed merger of state leagues since 2022.

In February, Carrie Hunt left VACUL as its president and CEO, and Chief Operating Officer Karima Freeman stepped in on an interim basis.

NextMark Credit Union President and CEO Joe Thomas, who chairs the VACUL Transition Committee, added, “While we seek member feedback during this discovery phase, we remain committed to advancing our collective industry and serving our members with greater impact. We believe the Virginia Credit Union League and the League of Southeastern Credit Unions share the same vision for success for credit unions.”

This announcement comes after the Virginia Bankers Association and the Maryland Bankers Association merged in July, creating the Mid-Atlantic Bankers Association holding company headquartered in Glen Allen.

Virginia Credit Union-Member One merger approved

Virginia Credit Union’s merger with Roanoke-based Member One Federal Credit Union was finalized Thursday, following a vote by Member One’s customers to approve the deal announced in January.

Effective Thursday, Member One becomes a division of VACU “as the organization works toward full integration of its systems and service platforms,” according to a news release from VACU. The combined institution has $7 billion in assets, 1,100 staff members and approximately 500,000 members with 37 branch locations, according to the announcement. It’s expected to be the third largest credit union based in Virginia and one of the top 50 largest credit unions in the nation.  

None of the employees of either credit union will lose their job in the merger, and no branches will be closed, the statement said. Member One members will continue to use existing platforms, ATM networks and branch locations for the time being, and full systems integration is expected to conclude in 2026.

Chris Shockley remains VACU’s president and CEO after the merger, and Frank Carter, the president and CEO of Member One, will be senior executive business advisor of the combined credit union until he retires. The credit union does not have a firm date for Carter’s retirement, according to Lewis Wood, a spokesperson for Virginia Credit Union.

“’Better together.’ That’s been our theme and vision as we’ve worked together the last several months in pursuing approval for our merger,”  Shockley said in a statement. “Now, we’re excited to move forward together, with our combined resources and talent empowering us to fulfill our mission to serve members, deliver best-in-class products and services, and support the communities we call home.”

Merger mania

Banking mergers and acquisitions are picking back up again after the slowest year in recent history, and Virginia is no exception.

Last year marked a modern low in merger and acquisition activity, with only 98 deals completed nationwide. That’s not just the lowest level of activity since the pandemic — it’s the slowest year since 2004. Industry analysts with Morgan Stanley Research predicted the trend would reverse in 2024, forecasting a potential 50% increase in mergers and acquisitions.

The banking industry has steadily trended toward consolidation since the 1994 passage of a federal law that allowed banks to branch across state lines. Increasingly tighter margins, new regulations and the need to adjust to changing technology has pushed banks to become more efficient, with larger banks able to tap into economies of scale not available to smaller operations.

“Virginia’s mirrored a lot of the national trend line on M&A activity,” says Matthew Bruning, executive vice president of government and member relations for the Virginia Bankers Association.

After a pandemic slowdown for banking mergers and acquisitions, activity picked up a little in 2023, “but it was still anemic,” Bruning says. “I’ve seen prognosticators talking about ’24 picking up, and rightfully so. The dynamic hasn’t changed as far as the drivers on that, with compliance costs and the burden on that side of things, [and] the need for economies of scale for banks of all sizes. What’s different over the last decade is the lack of new bank formation.”

The most recent batch of Virginia bank mergers and acquisitions varies by deal, but a common factor has seen banks seeking to grow in new markets, especially in metro areas.

These banks see an opportunity to “look at markets they’re not in, and to build scale and invest in technology to reach customers, while still having commitment to their legacy markets,” Bruning says.

That applies not only to large banks, but smaller ones as well. Since 2012, there have been 48 mergers among community banks in Virginia alone, says Virginia Association of Community Banks President and CEO Steve Yeakel.

Banks of all sizes are affected by the “challenges of scale and the regulatory environment,” Yeakel says. “It’s fair to say this trend will continue in some way or another to the foreseeable future.”

Credit card combo

Virginia already has seen deal activity increase among banks and credit unions over the last year.

The biggest, by far, is McLean-based Capital One Financial’s blockbuster proposed purchase of Discover Financial Services for $35.3 billion. If federal regulators sign off on the all-stock deal, it would be Capital One’s largest ever acquisition and would make it the nation’s biggest credit card lender.

“We believe strongly that this merger will increase competition among banks and credit card issuers and payment networks, and provide significant benefits for consumers, merchants and the communities that we serve,” Capital One founder, Chairman and CEO Richard Fairbank said during the bank’s first quarter earnings call in April. “We believe the facts will show that this transaction is both pro-competitive and pro-consumer, bringing our best-in-class products and services to a broader set of consumers and small businesses and greatly enhancing opportunities and benefits for merchants.”

The proposed deal has received pushback from both Democratic and Republican U.S. senators. President Joe Biden also has taken a wary approach to large mergers, fighting an airline consolidation and issuing an executive order calling on the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and other agencies to update their guidelines “to provide more robust scrutiny” of banking mergers.

The Capital One-Discover transaction is expected to close in late 2024 or early 2025. At close, Capital One shareholders will own about 60% of the combined company and Discover shareholders will hold the remaining approximately 40%.

“It’s a really big deal,” says Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree. “Those are two giant companies and two really significant players. The credit card space is already so thoroughly dominated by a relatively small number of financial institutions that I understand people’s concern about further consolidation. But I also think that one of the things that is really interesting about this is the payment network aspect of this.”

The deal grants Capital One access to Discover’s payment processing services. The combined company’s sheer size would give it the potential to significantly influence the industry’s payment systems, a fact that’s attracting the attention of many others in the industry.

“We’re not concerned about direct impacts,” says Yeakel with the Virginia Association of Community Banks, but “we’re watching, thinking closely about what that merger would do in the payment system.”

Schulz explains: “With most credit cards, you have the payment network who provides the infrastructure that lets the transactions happen. Visa and Mastercard are the giant gorilla behemoths of the space. American Express is its own thing, both card issuer and network. There’s already been a [big] push to inject more competition against Visa and Mastercard through legislation, but the possibility of a giant issuer like Capital One having a payment network of their own really presents the possibility of having another payment network that’s an even more serious competitor.”

Despite the enormity of the deal, Schulz speculates it probably won’t affect consumers all that much.

“Personally, I think it may not have that much of an impact, especially if they let the Discover brand of credit card stand, because the space is already dominated by relatively small group of players,” Schulz says. “I don’t know that this is going to change things all that much.”

Industry change

The Capital One-Discover deal stands out as a Virginia mega-deal, but it’s far from the only banking M&A activity in the commonwealth playing out this year.

Richmond-based Atlantic Union Bank completed its $407 million merger with Danville-based American National Bank in May. That deal was first announced in June 2023 and approved by the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors in February 2024.

The merger, Atlantic Union President and CEO John C. Asbury says, was the culmination of a 40-year relationship between the banks.

“For better or for worse, consolidation is a reality in this industry,” Asbury says. “The need to invest in technology, increased regulatory requirements and changing customer expectations have driven a lot of change in the industry. It means a lot of investment needs to occur. From American National Bank’s standpoint, they really had two choices: to make change happen on their own over time, which is expensive, or to join with a friendly party that they knew quite well.”

The consolidation will mean expanded lending capacity and a more robust wealth management and trust business for the newly merged bank, Asbury says. Atlantic Union also picked up American National’s branches, which expanded its reach in Southern Virginia, Roanoke and North Carolina.

“If you look at the map, it’s a hand-in-glove fit,” Asbury says. “It’s perfect infill.”

The merger cements Atlantic Union’s ascendance as a growing, mid-sized bank. Atlantic Union started as a community bank, but although it still considers itself a community bank compared with the nationals, it’s larger than the Virginia Association of Community Banks’ definition, which caps its membership at $10 billion in assets. The combined Atlantic Union has total assets of $23.7 billion.

Another ongoing Virginia merger, though, remains firmly within the narrower definition of “community bank.”

Bigger footprints

Strasburg-based First National is in the process of acquiring Prince George-based Touchstone Bankshares in an all-stock transaction worth roughly $47 million. First Bank will combine with Touchstone to form what will be the ninth largest community bank in Virginia, with 32 branches and expected total assets of about $2.1 billion.

The deal comes on the heels of First Bank’s 2021 acquisition of the Bank of Fincastle, which expanded its footprint from the Shenandoah Valley and Central Virginia into the Roanoke metro area. The Touchstone deal would take it into Southern Virginia, parts of North Carolina, and the lucrative Richmond region. If approved, the merger would be implemented in early 2025.

Scott Harvard is CEO of Strasburg’s First National, which is acquiring Prince George-based Touchstone Bankshares in an all-stock transaction worth approximately $47 million. Photo by Will Schermerhorn

CEO Scott Harvard arrived at First Bank in 2011. Four years later, it acquired six branches from Bank of America when the national bank withdrew from smaller communities. Places like Staunton, Waynesboro and Woodstock have become First Bank’s bread and butter. With the Touchstone deal, it’s expanding its footprint with seven new branches in the Richmond metro area.

“Even though they’ve got metro Richmond, they’re on the fringes of it and serve smaller communities — which are culturally very similar to the Shenandoah Valley,” Harvard says. “They’re community-oriented, which is what we like. That’s who we are as a community banking company.”

Banks in general operate under increasingly tight margins that particularly squeeze smaller banks, Harvard says. That’s been further exacerbated during the last couple of years when short-term interest rates have exceeded long-term rates, creating an inverted yield curve that makes it challenging for banks to attain viable margins.

That dynamic has further pushed banks to scale up, all but ensuring a continuation of the industry trend toward mergers.

“In 1994, we had 164 banks in Virginia, but every 10 years since, the number of banks headquartered here has dropped by about 25% to 30%,” says Harvard at First National. “In 2014, it was down to 91 banks. In 2024, there are 60 or 61 banks in Virginia. It’s likely you’ll continue to see consolidation at a similar-type pace. You see it across the country as well. I don’t know it’ll cascade or be a huge waterfall, but it will continue to happen over time.”

Another deal occurred in May, when Alexandria-based Burke & Herbert completed its acquisition of West Virginia-based Summit Financial Group. The all-stock deal, valued at $371.5 million, creates a bank with $8.3 billion in assets. As with the Atlantic Union and First Bank deals, this merger expands Burke & Herbert’s reach, essentially tripling its footprint, growing it from its current presence in Richmond, Fredericksburg and Northern Virginia to include Delaware, Kentucky, West Virginia and Maryland’s Eastern Shore.

“This alliance doesn’t just extend our influence; it strategically positions us for future growth,” bank President Charles Maddy III said in a statement. “It also lays the foundation for cultivating richer relationships and underscores our aspiration to become the most sought-after community bank in our markets.”

Credit unions consolidate too

It’s not just Virginia banks that are consolidating; Virginia credit unions are merging as well.

In June, Apple Federal Credit Union and NextMark Credit Union, both based in Fairfax County, announced plans to merge, with the deal slated to close in November. Founded in 1956, Apple has $4.4 billion in assets and 245,000 members, and will integrate the much smaller NextMark into its operations. Post-merger, Apple will have nearly $5 billion in assets and about 260,000 members.

An even bigger credit union deal was announced in January, as Richmond-based Virginia Credit Union announced it would merge with Roanoke-based Member One to create the third largest credit union in Virginia. If the deal is approved, the newly merged credit union will have $6.8 billion in assets, 37 branches and nearly 500,000 members.

Virginia Credit Union is the larger of the two operations, with 22 branches, mostly in the Richmond area, compared with Member One’s 15 branches across Roanoke, Lynchburg and the New River Valley.

According to Deb Wreden of the Virginia Credit Union, the deal has received initial approval from the National Credit Union Administration. Pending a positive vote by Member One’s membership, the merger is planned to take effect on Aug. 1.

Virginia Credit Union spokesman Lewis Wood cited “the costs, challenges and requirements associated with regulatory compliance, cybersecurity, technology, fraud and the realities of today’s economy” as factors in the merger.

Credit union mergers look different from bank mergers due to their ownership by members instead of stockholders. But credit unions also have been consolidating on a steady clip, from 263 mergers in 2014 to 146 in 2023, with the decrease due in part to the shrinking number of credit unions overall. Virginia has effectively mirrored that national trend, with several mergers each year.

“The rate of mergers has been fairly steady,” says J.T. Blau, chief advocacy officer of the Virginia Credit Union League. “Mergers happen for different reasons. One of the reasons is that compliance burden, the regulatory burden that all credit unions face. Compliance costs continue to rise and are difficult for small credit unions. A lot of regulations are one-size-fits-all and can weigh heavily on smaller credit unions.”

Those macro trends continue to pressure banks and credit unions to consolidate. The process can be alarming for customers, but banks are handing it well, says Bruning of the Virginia Bankers Association.

“We’ve seen it every time there’s a merger announcement: There are certainly questions from customers, but banks do a great job explaining what’s going on through the entire process,” Bruning says. “Be patient and check in with your bank if it’s going through that process. It usually ends up being able to offer more products and services in the end.” 

Chartway Credit Union names new CFO

Virginia Beach-based Chartway Credit Union has hired Sander Casino as its chief financial officer, the credit union announced Wednesday.

Casino was most recently senior vice president of finance for Raleigh, North Carolina-based Local Government Federal Credit Union and its affiliate Civic Credit Union. Before joining LGFCU in 2012 and Civic in 2018, Casino was with RBC Bank for about a decade, where he was director of treasury. He has 26 years of experience in the financial sector.

“Sander’s résumé speaks for itself, but the distinction between who he is and what he does is evident,” Chartway President and CEO Brian Schools said in a statement. “He’s a great person and will be a great leader at Chartway.”

Casino has a bachelor’s degree in business administration in finance from the University of Massachusetts’ Isenberg School of Management, a graduate certificate in financial markets from Boston University, and an advanced certificate in management, innovation and technology from the MIT Sloan School of Management.

With branches in Utah, Texas and Virginia, Chartway has more than 230,000 members and about $2.7 billion in total assets.

 

 

Navy Federal Credit Union CEO McDuffie to retire

Mary McDuffie, president and CEO of Vienna-based Navy Federal Credit Union, the nation’s largest credit union with $168.4 billion in assets and more than 13 million members, is retiring as of the end of February, and Chief Operating Officer Dietrich Kuhlmann will succeed her starting March 1, the credit union announced Wednesday.

According to the announcement, McDuffie, who became the credit union’s CEO in 2018, announced her retirement in September 2023, but Navy Federal did not send out a public announcement at the time. McDuffie has been with the credit union for 24 years.

Kuhlmann, meanwhile, was named COO in 2022, after joining the financial institution in 2019 as head of branch operations and then serving as chief real estate lending officer. He was also a member of the credit union’s board of directors from 2010 to 2012 and is a retired Navy rear admiral.

“I’ve had the pleasure of working closely with Dietrich in numerous capacities since he came on board at Navy Federal,” McDuffie said in a statement. “A leader of integrity with a powerful sense of duty and purpose, Dietrich also genuinely understands what our members need. I can think of no better individual to steer us into the next phase of growth and further our mission to serve Navy Federal Credit Union’s members and their families.”

Dietrich Kuhlmann
Dietrich Kuhlmann

Kuhlmann is a U.S. Naval Academy graduate, and he holds a master’s degree in engineering management from Catholic University of America. Before joining the credit union, he served 35 years in the Navy and the U.S. Department of Defense. He was a career submariner with a sub-specialty in financial management, working as programming division director on staff of the Chief of Naval Operations and overseeing the Navy’s $800 billion, five-year capital allocation process, according to Navy Federal’s announcement Wednesday.

“I’m tremendously grateful to be trusted with the responsibility to lead Navy Federal Credit Union,” Kuhlmann said in a statement. “This is an incredible opportunity to continue my career of service to our military community, and I’m eager to build upon the progress Mary has championed on behalf of our members as CEO.”

As Navy Federal’s first woman CEO, McDuffie led more than 22,000 employees. A Wellesley College alumna, she was senior vice president of marketing for electronic payments company Star Systems and started her career with ad agency J. Walter Thompson and serves on the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s Baltimore board. Her board term ends this year, according to the Richmond Fed.

Chartway Credit Union names chief retail officer

Melissa Cade has been promoted to chief retail officer at Chartway Credit Union, Chartway announced Monday.

Cade has been with the Virginia Beach-based credit union for 24 years, many spent working with branches. In her new role, she will oversee the strategy and leadership of branch and member care teams and continue to spearhead Chartway’s multicultural initiatives, according to a news release from Chartway.

“I’m incredibly excited to take on this new challenge and continue contributing to Chartway‘s growth and success,” Cade said in a statement. “I look forward to further enhancing our member experiences and services in alignment with Chartway‘s mission to unlock the potential of individuals and families so they can thrive.”

Before her new role, Cade served as senior vice president of product and innovation, senior vice president of member solutions services, vice president of alternative channels, regional president of branches, call center manager, call center director and director of retail.

“Melissa’s leadership, innovative approach to product development and commitment to our multicultural community have been invaluable to Chartway,” Chartway President and CEO Brian Schools said in a statement. “We are excited to see her leadership continue to evolve in this new role.”

Cade has a bachelor of science in business administration from Columbia College Chicago, a master’s degree in information systems from the University of Phoenix and a professional certificate in product management from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. She is also an active member of the African-American Credit Union Coalition and the executive sponsor of Chartway’s African American resource group.

Chartway has more 225,000 members, with branches in Utah, Texas and Virginia.

U.Va. credit union names new COO

The University of Virginia Community Credit Union in Charlottesville has named Belinda Tucker as chief operating officer, the institution announced Monday.

Tucker will report directly to Susan Gruber, the credit union’s president and CEO. In her new role, Tucker will support the credit union’s marketing, retail delivery strategy, loan servicing operations member service center and member experience departments, overseeing 158 employees.

Tucker has more than 20 years experience in the financial industry, managing loan and deposit operations, loan collections, mortgage, IT, HR, risk and compliance, marketing and branding, branch administration and branch sales development and service. She is also an experienced lender in retail, commercial and mortgage loans, according to a news release from the credit union.

Before joining U.Va. Community Credit Union, Tucker spent nearly two years as senior vice president of bank operations at MainStreet Bank, according to her LinkedIn.

“In addition to her vast experience as an innovative leader and adviser, what makes Belinda a particularly good fit for our credit union is our shared philosophy that working together strengthens the financial wellness of our members and local communities. She believes that being involved in her community is the most important thing she can do personally and professionally,” Gruber said in a statement.

Tucker has a bachelor’s degree in economics from George Mason University and a slew of industry certifications. In June, she completed her master of science degree in information technology.

She will relocate from Northern Virginia to the Charlottesville area.

Keeping watch

The question of the quarter: Are we entering a recession? One key indicator of a future recession can be inflation, which hit a 40-year high this year.

Between June 2021 and June 2022, the consumer price index increased by 9.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. One of the first tangible signs for many consumers were gas prices at the pump, which exceeded $5 a gallon earlier this year, although prices dipped to a statewide average of $3.45 per gallon in Virginia by mid-September.

The Federal Reserve Bank has also taken actions to cool inflation this year, enacting two 0.75-point interest rate hikes in a row, after two years of 0% interest rates during the pandemic.

The Fed did this to break the “grip of inflation,” as Atlantic Union Bank CEO John Asbury puts it, designed to create “demand destruction” for products with soaring prices.

In late September (after this issue went to press), the Fed’s voting body was set to meet, with some traders predicting that it could raise interest rates again by as much as a percentage point.

Although the word “recession” strikes fear in the hearts of Americans who suffered losses during the 2008 Great Recession, the technical definition is two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP, which occurred during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as other periods throughout the past 25 years.

In a Henrico County town hall meeting in June, Richmond Fed President and CEO Tom Barkin said, “Historically, eight of the last 11 Fed tightening cycles have been followed by some sort of a recession.” He predicted that supply chain and labor shortage issues would subside in coming months. “That means inflation should come down over time,” Barkin said, “but it will take time.”

Nonetheless, Virginia businesses and bankers are keeping a watchful eye on their budgets as they plan for the end of the year and 2023.

“We’re in a little bit of new-ground territory,” says Brian Schools, president and CEO of Chartway Federal Credit Union, noting the combination of inflation and labor shortages in today’s market. “But I will tell you the loan volume has been really good of recent.”

This counteracts worries that rising interest rates would cause a slowdown in loans, both on the consumer and commercial side. What bankers have seen so far in the marketplace is bucking that logic.

“It’s an intuitively natural assumption that as interest rates rise, loan demand will go down,” says Virginia Bankers Association President and CEO Bruce Whitehurst. However, he notes, “loan demand is pretty good on the commercial side. Everyone’s looking for the potential of a slowdown but [we’re] really not seeing it at the moment.”

Thomas Ransom, Truist’s Virginia regional president, says his commercial and mid-market customers are “generally positive” about the economic outlook but still watchful. Photo by Shandell Taylor

Strong commercial demand

Coming out of COVID, banks expected business would be a little soft, says Cecilia Hodges, M&T Bank’s regional president for Greater Washington and Virginia. But her bank has seen just the opposite.

“We’re having a really strong year in all areas of our business right now,” she says. “Demand for commercial loans is very strong. Business banking activity has been very strong.”

In fact, one trend that has emerged in commercial loans has been that more businesses are borrowing now to expand their inventories because they believe prices may continue to rise with inflation — or they’re trying to avoid even higher interest rates in the months to come. More companies are also “doubling down” by making capital investments, considering acquisitions and growing their businesses, Hodges adds.

Truist’s commercial and middle-market clients remain “generally positive” about current economic conditions, says Thomas Ransom, the bank’s Virginia regional president, but there are also growing concerns about labor shortages and margin pressure amid rising interest rates and higher input costs.

“Given all of this, we remain generally positive about our prospects for continued loan growth,” Ransom says. “At the same time, we acknowledge that there’s increased uncertainty associated with the softening economic environment, which may cause loan growth to soften, but currently we’re continuing to help our clients understand the marketplace and their options.”

In the University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment survey for August, 55.1% of people polled felt positively about the economy, marking a three-month high after June’s low of 50%, and consumers predicted prices to increase at an annual rate of 3% over the next five to 10 years.

Asked whether now is the right time for businesses to take out loans, Hodges says it depends on how a particular company is faring in the current economic environment. Some businesses thrived during the pandemic, adopting new technologies and figuring out ways to increase productivity and demands for their products and services. Other businesses, though, have felt more pressure to increase wages and pricing, she says.

“For some of those companies, it’s been a struggle for them, and it’s been hard for them to spend money and make investments,” Hodges says.

Ransom says Truist has seen its corporate finance and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) business pick up this year.

“We are actively having conversations with our clients to understand how inflation and rising rates impact their businesses so that we can work with them on ways to strengthen their companies’ positioning for any down cycle,” he says.

Atlantic Union has also seen some commercial clients rely more on cash reserves when investing in new inventory.

“We’re starting to see some borrowers use more cash instead [of taking out loans],” says David Ring, an executive vice president and commercial banking group executive with Atlantic Union Bank. “For equipment purchases in particular, [clients are] starting to use cash rather than financing or even vendor financing because it’s a more productive use of their cash.”

On the consumer side

When looking at consumer loan demands, two areas have become sticky for low- to middle-income consumers in particular: mortgages and car loans. The two-point increase in interest rates since the start of the year has caused a slowdown in home sales and mortgage applications, says Ryan Price, chief economist with Virginia Realtors.

In June, home sales dropped by nearly 19% statewide compared with June 2021, Virginia Realtors reported, affecting the whole state, with the largest declines in the Shenandoah Valley, the Northern Neck, the Eastern Shore and suburban Richmond and Northern Virginia.

Higher interest rates are “complicating a lot of potential buyers’ — and even sellers’ — budgets,” Price says. “It’s adding a lot of cost to the mortgages, and it’s also reducing their purchasing power.”

Credit unions in particular may start to feel the effects of a decline in home loan applications. Mortgage lending typically accounts for about 50% of all credit union loans, including first mortgages, refinances and home equity lines, says JT Blau, chief advocacy officer of the Virginia Credit Union League, which represents 108 member-owned credit unions.

“We’re hearing from a lot of our credit unions that originations or new mortgage loans have reduced fairly quickly,” he says. “This is due to the rise in interest rates and home prices. It’s making that monthly payment harder and harder to obtain for people.”

Steven Yeakel, president and CEO of the Virginia Association of Community Banks, says bankers are still watching how interest rate hikes could affect consumer loan demands for the rest of 2022 and 2023.

“Certainly, what’s going on now does not compare to the concerns over the economy in 2019 and 2020 or the concerns in banking-customer relationships and the challenges hitting consumers primarily,” he says. “[Community banks are] just very carefully examining the data that’s there and staying in close touch with borrowers and ready to make the adjustments as they present themselves.”

Hodges notes that M&T’s homebuilding clients have also reported fewer people visiting model homes or looking to purchase. Plus, the construction of new homes is slowing down because of affordability issues, mostly around mortgage rates, Asbury adds.

On the commercial real estate side, Atlantic Union is seeing large real estate sales starting to slow down, but that can work out well for banks, Ring says. “That stuff is staying on our books longer, which is really good for us and seeing our balances be more stable.”

Similarly, refinancing has slowed down since interest rates rose above zero, VBA’s Whitehurst says. In August, the national Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications and refinancing fell to their lowest levels in 22 years.

“If someone is interested in refinancing their home, they might be now at a rate that is higher than what they currently have, and that can make that not a good option for people,” Blau notes.

The mortgage slump has not carried over to auto loans, though, at least in the state’s credit unions. As of the first half of 2022, auto loan balances grew 12%, Blau says, and if the pace continues, it would be the biggest year for auto loan growth since 1994. In Virginia, according to a Federal Reserve report released in August, the average auto debt per capita was $5,210.

However, Blau notes, there’s still plenty of uncertainty in the vehicle market, from microchip disruptions to fluctuating gas prices.

“Inflation plays a huge part in the household budget,” he says. “Our members are weighing gas, car payments, all these factors, along with all the other elements of a budget. Finding a car payment that works can be difficult.”

Credit card crunch

Although some consumers may be wary about taking out loans, they’re increasingly leaning on credit. In the second quarter of the year, credit card balances jumped by 13%, the biggest year-over-year spike in 20 years, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported.

“People are tapping into credit to cover for some of those inflationary pressures,” Schools says. M&T is also starting to see balances creeping up on consumer credit cards, Hodges says.

“We’re seeing a little bit of the more moderate-income individuals and families are getting stretched thin due to inflation, and they’re starting to rely on credit for their needs,” she says. “The higher-income individuals and families are still sitting on a fairly nice cash cushion, and they really haven’t been impacted.”

What will be important to watch is credit scores, Blau says, because those heavily impact consumers’ ability to get loans with desirable interest rates. Asbury says, though, that Atlantic Union has seen an absence of credit defaults or other payment problems.

“As a bank, one of the things that is the best indicator of health is what are loan losses and credit defaults doing?” he says. “And the answer is they’re not doing anything.”

Another benchmark that banks will need to keep an eye on as interest rates continue to rise is deposit levels. In September, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) reported that deposits fell 1.9% to $19.6 trillion in the second quarter of the year, the first time that deposits have declined since 2018, although the report notes that stimulus money during the pandemic prompted “unprecedented growth” in deposits.

In late 2020 and 2021, “we all lived in an excess deposit world, perhaps from stimulus money,” Schools says. “Well, that has all subsided and now it’s about [banks] marketing for deposits.”

Hodges notes that competition for deposits was “pretty fierce” when interest rates were at zero, and now is even more so.

“In this rising rate environment, [deposits are] extremely valuable to banks, and it’s also opened up an opportunity for businesses to actually shop for rates,” she says. “All banks are hungry for deposits right now.”