Youngkin’s 2024 tightrope walk depends on Va. elections

The individual with the most to gain from this fall’s General Assembly elections isn’t even on the ballot.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin is nearly midway through his term-limited governorship, and pretty much from day one, politicos have speculated he’s after a bigger prize: the U.S. presidency. The governor hasn’t entered the 2024 race, but he’s sent signals he’s interested, and Republican billionaires like Ronald Lauder and Rupert Murdoch have privately encouraged him to run.

November’s elections for all 140 seats in the state’s legislature will likely have a lot of bearing on whether Youngkin jumps into the national race. If Republicans backed by his Spirit of Virginia political action committee seize control of the state Senate and the House of Delegates, he would be in a good position to take his chances in the 2024 Republican primary field.

It would still be a steep climb to overcome former President Donald Trump, who led a CNN poll in September by 34 points over his closest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

But for those who dislike the four-times-indicted Trump or Disney-baiting DeSantis, Youngkin is an attractive alternative — even though Democrats consider him a MAGA wolf in red fleece.

Youngkin’s PAC raised $12 million between Jan. 1 and Aug. 31, including $3.3 million in August alone. The PAC has been pouring money into state Republican primaries and general election campaigns.

In response, President Joe Biden approved the release of $1.2 million from the Democratic National Committee for Virginia campaigns in September.

A.J. Nolte, an assistant professor at Regent University’s Robertson School of Government, views the General Assembly elections as a bellwether for Youngkin. “This is an acid test of the governor’s political brand,” Nolte says. “Is he strong enough to overcome the headwinds of Virginia being a blue-leaning state that’s heavily anti-Trump? There’s a lot of pro-choice suburban voters in some of the Northern Virginia suburbs, Hampton Roads and even some of the Richmond suburbs. Youngkin is invested heavily in infrastructure, in candidate recruitment [and] in trying to rebuild the Republican Party to get these legislative majorities.”

Earlier in the year, Youngkin endorsed 10 Republicans in contested primaries, all of whom won their races.

Now, with the primaries in the rearview mirror, the governor can support the GOP’s general election nominees while adjusting his political message to entice suburban voters. In September, the Spirit of Virginia launched a bus tour to encourage Republicans to vote early — a change in messaging from Trump and his followers. And flanked by newly rolled out “Parents Matter” banners, the governor has refined his earlier messages about schools — smoothing away culture wars topics like critical race theory and transgender students’ bathroom usage — but still amplifying parenting issues like children’s mental health and social media use. Democrats, meanwhile, are largely campaigning against the likelihood a GOP legislative majority would bring a 15-week limit on abortions in Virginia.

“For the governor, the stakes couldn’t be higher,” says Stephen Farnsworth, a University of Mary Washington political scientist. “His ability to make the case for his political future is going to depend on what he can do in the next two years. If Democrats end up with either of the two chambers, the final years of Youngkin’s term will be just as frustrating as the first two.” 

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