CNU poll: McAuliffe leads Youngkin by 9 points

Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe and down-ballot Democratic candidates have significant leads over GOP gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin, former co-CEO of The Carlyle Group, and the state Republican ticket, according to a survey of 800 likely voters released Thursday by Christopher Newport University’s The Wason Center for Civic Leadership and AARP Virginia.

McAuliffe received 50% of the likely vote, while Youngkin received 41%. McAuliffe received strong support from women, netting 55% to Youngkin’s 36%. He also leads among voters 50 and older, with 49% to Youngkin’s 44%. McAuliffe leads in Northern Virginia, 59% to 33%; the Richmond area, 48% to 40%; and Hampton Roads, 52% to 41%.

The margin of error for the survey is 3.6%. The polling was conducted done from Aug. 15 to 23.

Ninety-five percent of Republican likely voters supported Youngkin. He is strongest in the South/Southwestern area of Virginia area as defined by The Wason Center, with 53% of the likely vote to McAuliffe’s 37%.

“These numbers reflect a state that continues to trend blue in presidential and statewide elections as demographic shifts endure in the commonwealth,” Wason Center Research Director Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo said in a statement. “While there is still room for movement in the race, Youngkin has a tightrope to walk between Trump supporters and more moderate voters across the suburbs of Virginia.”

On Aug. 20, the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University released its gubernatorial election poll. Its results had McAuliffe polling slightly ahead at 40% and Youngkin at 37% among likely voters. This poll was conducted from Aug. 4 to 15 and had 823 respondents.

In the race for lieutenant governor, Del. Hala Ayala, D-Prince William County, leads former Republican Del. Winsome Sears 52% to 42%, with 6% undecided, according to The Wason Center poll. Ayala leads among younger voters, 57% to 35%; Black voters, 84% to 6%; and women, 55% to 38%. Sears has support from 95% of the Republican base and voters in the South/Southwest region (54% to 37%), with a slight majority of white voters (51% to 44%).

In the attorney general race, Democratic incumbent Mark Herring leads Del. Jason Miyares, R-Virginia Beach, 53% to 41%, with 6% of respondents undecided. Herring slightly outperforms McAuliffe and Ayala among women, Black voters and younger voters.

All 100 House of Delegates seats also are up for election. In a generic ballot test, which asks respondents if they will vote for the Republican or the Democratic Party’s candidate for the body in the Nov. 2 election, those polled favored Democrats 50% to 43%.

In the regional breakdown, 32% of respondents reported residing in Northern Virginia, 24% in Richmond/Central Virginia, 24% in Hampton Roads/Eastern Virginia and 21% in the Southern Virginia/Southwest region.