Winchester region sees state’s biggest population growth

Since 2020, Winchester has gained traction as Virginia’s fastest-growing metro area due to an outflow of remote workers from the Washington, D.C., region to the exurbs. That’s squeezing the local housing market and boosting prices — as well as causing worry among the region’s leaders.

“Living in Winchester versus D.C. is very attractive for federal workers if you only need to go into the office occasionally,” says Hamilton Lombard, a demographer at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, citing Winchester’s lower cost of living.

Between 2020 and 2023, the Winchester and Frederick County metro area saw a 4.6% rise in population, or an increase of 5,554 people, outpacing every other metro area in Virginia for the same period, Lombard says.

“Most years, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William are the top source for people moving into the Winchester area,” contributing about 4,000 new Winchester-Frederick residents, based on data from tax returns, he notes.

But the area’s residential reach is expanding as “between a third and a half of all work in the Winchester area is now being done remotely, which is above the national average,” Lombard says.

Jeff Buettner, executive director of the Winchester Economic Development Authority, says the city isn’t actively recruiting remote workers. Neither is neighboring Frederick County, according to Patrick Barker, executive director of the county’s economic development authority.

Still, new residents have been arriving since the pandemic, responding to rising house prices in their home regions, says Blue Ridge Association of Realtors CEO Rob Wigton. But prices in Winchester and surrounding localities also have risen. Over the past year, the median price of an area single-family home rose 10.2%, and in March, the median selling price was $437,500.

High interest rates also are keeping the supply of available homes tight, says Winchester real estate broker Meghan Pachas.

However, new construction may ease that demand. Frederick has seen a lot of new builds, says Wigton, adding that there are some people who aren’t pleased with the growth. He disagrees.

“If you’re not growing, you’re dying,” Wigton says. “It’s just a matter of growing smartly.”

Winchester will soon see an uptick in construction of new housing, Buettner says. City leaders are looking ahead, planning for future stormwater, road and school needs.

“We’re going to work on the infrastructure before it happens, as opposed to being reactionary after the fact,” Buettner says.